Monday, May 11, 2009
^V^ Warrant can make u rich ! how 2 pick good warrant ? ^V^
Some may ask , unker , y u can be so accurate on warrants , is there any insdiers news u got or r u a genius ?
FYI, Char Kuey Teow man can never be genius , char keoy teow man got no jalan, no connection , no style , no GF, nothing at all ! but what he knows is FA , he knows what is undervalue what is over price ^_^
I hv rec'd lots of email asking mkt has moved up too fast, should we sell it now ?
Well, as i said , I dun know where is d bottom n where is d peak ? but what i know is mkt is never wrong ! if u think mkt is too high n u sell off yr shares, later on , if mkt shoot up again, u r wrong , mkt is right ^_^ or u think it is too low, u jump in mkt comes down, once again, u r wrong n mkt is still right ^_^ this is what ppl called mkt will never wrong !
All these r just like telling me my mom is female ,buy low sell high , my pa is male... ha ha
Though mkt is never wrong but still I hv ways to deal with her ^_^ since i cannot beat her , i hv 2 join her ^_^ how 2 join her ? use kiddy TA ? of course NO ! d more u use TA d more u die !
D solution is simple :-
2 things
1) Fund allocation , monitor yr cash vs shares ratio
2) Sell n buy in stages.
U dun know where is d peak, hence sell in stages like what I did 2 pantech, alam n zelan .
Same goes 2 buy in stages.
U know very well, mkt will never goes below 900 liao..hence , u can allocate yr fund in 3 buying stages , 1,000 , 950 n 900.
K..come back 2 warrant
How 2 pick a good warrant ?
B4 i show u how 2 pick good warrant, i must oso show u my proven track records in warrants ( as per attached)
First , YTL-wb bot in year 2002 , cost 0.52 for 213 lots
sold all @ avg 1.60+ , Profit 200K+
Second Ijm-wb bot in year 2006 , cost 0.38 for 278 lots ,
sold all @ avg 1.20+- , Profit 220K +
Third , d latest one , YTLpwr-wb bot in 2008 , cost 0.49 for 100 lots.
sold all @ avg 0.76 , Profit 25K+
Total profit made from warrant = 450K+.. ^_^ how u like that ?
What is good warrant ?
3 criterias
1) Must be in money , what is in money warrant ? in money warrant is premium that u get after u minus out yr cost n conversion from its mom.
Example : Tgoff-wa
As at 8 May 09
Mom = 1.25
Tgoff-wa= 0.69
Conversion = 0.55
Hence, 0.69 + 0.55= 1.24
1.25 - 1.24 = 1cts , premium = 0.01/1.24 = 0.8%
Due 2 cost n time factor, any premium below 30% is still consider as in money warrant .what is premium 30% for Tgoff @1.25 ? d answer is 1.08 .
1.08 + 0.55 =1.63
1.63 - 1.25 /1.25 x 100%= premium 30%
In another word means d FV 4 tgoff-wa is 1.08 $$$$$$$
2) Future earning of its mom , take a look at my previous warrant purchase , all r bluechips , such as YTL n Ijm..d latest one is Tanjong offshore.. with its status of political link darling + orders in hand , I forsee its future earning shld be a good one.
3) Expiry date , expiry date must be at least 3 years n above , y ? simple.. cos u dun know what will happen 2molo , what if another 911 happen tonite ? once its mom dive from d sky, yr premium could gone with d wind oso, hence , longer expiry date is essential.
Alex lu has recommended a few call warrants in his blog , calculate yrself what is d premium u get n when is d expiry date ? u will know y i said it not wise 2 4low !
& oso , check out yrself , besides Ytlpwrwb, how many of d warrants in KLSE could meet d above criterias ?
Same old saying , We r not smart as warren n Li kar sing , I wish i can be like them , I want to work with them 2 cari makan but I got no chance, they dun even look at me at all ! so how ??
Since we cant cari makan with them..we can 4low their method , what make them who they r now ? that's d thing we need 2 learn from them !
Everybody wanna 2 be genius , but how many of us can be born as genius ? born stupid is not yr fault , just like me , though i am not smart but at least I know who n what method shld i follow , follow those smart ppl will never wrong !
D most sad thing is " u r less smart but still u think u r very smart ! ha ha like that god oso cant help u liaooo
^_^
What I did today ( as per attached ) :-
sold 5 lots of Pantech @0.82
sold 5 lots of Alam @ 1.18
sold 2 lots of zelan @ 1.01
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106 comments:
thanks sifu sam, im gonna keep this for my reference again n again
Haha.. Sam, ini theory gua sudah tahu.. Mana saya belajar?
Dari kamu lah.. ^^
Thanks Sifu..
sifu sam, thanks for your knowledge.. better than read invetment book..but then..where can i find the conversion value like 55 cents for tgoffs-wa? mind to tell or did i miss anythin sam?
Hi Sifu Sam,
Thanks for your unselfish teaching.
This time really is 'put money in my pocket'!
Regards,
Eric
Thanks alot , but sifu why must make the premium to 30%? why not 25% ? or 20%?
Sifu Sam, kamsiah.. you're really teaching a man how to char the best penang char kuey teow for many generations to come!! now i want to apply your theory to find some in-money warrants in bursa
thanks for sharing the knowledge, but I got to read more on Warrant.
too bad I miss out TgOff-Wa, KSL, FAVCO..
Good write up from sifu..newbies are lucky that sifu takes his time to spoon feed haha, last time I have to do all the learning myself!
Anyway, what is also very important is sifu's advice in dealing with the market now! Be careful newbies, don't go down with the ship with 100% of your cash in stocks when it comes down..
Indeed a very useful lesson, an PROFESSOR-level lesson while all free from my sifu SAM, thanks alot; will keep that in mind, thank you.
but boss sam, now tgoffs_wa 7.6, still can chase?? or shall wait for the mkt lower abit? sorry i am very new in this game.
sam is one of the most unselfish investors in blogeshpere. Sam really understand 钱不是一个人赚完的。
But there are some sour bloggers outhere setting trap to con novices and newbies.
TQ sam for the sharing! It's as good as having a dinner with Warren Buffett :p
Sifu-sam
thank you thank you for kind education.
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/website/bm/market_information/market_statistics/warrants/warrants_info.html
hi, sam...
i just discovered your blog and found it informative,very simple and easy to follow....
By the way, i kept seeing u write FA. What is FA?
thanks for the info..
From :Beginner
dear Sam,
What is FA?
From a beginner who is interested in your blog...
HI SAM
Thanks you very much for your good sharing...Learn alot from you.. for beginner like me....thanks
Thanks very much for sharing. I have learnt some new things from you. Keep up the good work.
FA is fundamental analysis, as opposed to TA, technical analysis. some traders/investors use FA only, some TA only and some mixture of both. Sam is from the school of FA, and believes that TA is basically useless.
2 ccdev..u left out something here, sam is from "KINDER GARDEN" Fa school ^_^ , fyi.lots of TA experts has come 2 my kinder garden school seeking 4 guide. what if I am graduated from FA uni ? wow wow wow !
2
poker limit, y 30 % ?
simple !
Average FD is ard 6% , hence, 5 years due warrant = 5 x 6%= 30%.
still dun understnad ?
k... 4 example.
If d conversion is 1.00 n due date is 5 years later , u only need to come out with rm1,000 upon due date , so what u do with this rm1,000 b4 due date ? obviously u will put it in FD , hence..5 years x 6% lol ^_^
simple ??
2 ees n all , u r right ,钱不是一个人赚完的 , chinese said " it is all street money , pu na bai pu na ^_^
FAvco came down 2 0.91, how ? jump in now ? not yet.. i may consider 2 buy ard 0.85+- . beware of this bugger, cos its vol is damn thin.
2 leng lui miss hazel.. woww u put yr photo there 4 us 2 c ar ? beware leng lui , lots of crocodies floating in my blog one.. ha ha..buy the edge , u will find d answer there , alternatively, u can oso get it from rhb web like what i hv posted in my blog.
today is it the correction day? or most of the stock has being fried until burn already?
Hi Sifu Sam,
Do have any stock to buy? waiting your call. Thanks for the pass you have posted.
Harta will announce their 4Q financial results. It's a FA stock & worth considering. Keep breaking new high price. The 4Q results will be a GOOD news!
Sam, I don't understand why you pick ZELAN?
The last quarter report(31/12/2008) shows a huge lost.
luckily sold alam @1.18 yesterday, thanks sifu sam for the call ^^ will you consider buy back if <1.00?
Sifu.. a few of your targets already nearing bargain price.. KSL and FAVCO..but as you say, volume is not there. waiting for your call!!
Walao e $ifu, I'm so happy 2day coz Liondiv up 25% now! 60 lots in hand n will dispose some n switch 2 either HK Parkson or Citi if Liondiv goes up somemore 2molo.
Hi sifu, 10Q for your pantech and alam first. I have followed your method and identify FAJAR-WA.
But the problem is 2nd board. What is your comment for the merger of main and 2nd board and this warrant?
Thanks.
2 118 N WILL, CONGRATS ON YR LIONDIV N HARTA... my advice..dun4get 2 take profit ^_^
Play safe bro .
2 ronald..y zelan ? ha ha... that one is one shot write off..no big deal..anyway.. it doesnt matter liaoo cos most of us has already taken profit liaooo..thx.
2 all , see d beauty of selling in stages ? up oso happy ,down oso happy ^_^
Let c d huge T+3 vol that transacted last week can be absorbed or not !? then only I will decide whether to buy back or not !?
2 richlo, it could be a good news 4 second board , it might bring some light 2 second board after d merger. but still I dare not 2 touch it ^_^
$ifu, will definately take ur advice. Intend 2 sell 30 lots 2molo if up further n wait 4 ur new call or either buying 1 more lot of HK Parkson or Citi coz these 2 stocks had come down recently.
Btw, hope Denmark could beat Korea 2nite 3-2 n M'sia beat Denmark 4-1 day after 2molo 2 put M'sia as 1st place in Group A so as 2 avoid meeting China in d semifinal! u think possible?
Enjoy d live now btwn Denmark n Korea!
Property stock E & O has rallied in the past few days.. Its PER is low at 4 compared with others. Its current price of 91 sen is at half of 52 weeks high of RM1.80.
Fundamental low PE less than 8, fits nicely yr category. Bought yesterday, today shot up 18%.
Would you buy this stock..?
Appreciate your opinion..
Sifu Sam, need yr further explaination on TGOFF 's 30% premium, how and where do u get 1.08 from 1.25?
thanks in advance.
thanks for yr Pantech, Alam and Scomi. Bingo all making money.
Bravo sam TGOFF-WA(miss the boat)
Another slow and steady counter with cash rich and low PE -FABER
Dayang spike aah miss again.
Sifu Sam,
Can u show me how to get 1.08 from TGOFF's 1.25?
"what is premium 30% for Tgoff @1.25 ? d answer is 1.08 ."
Thank you.
Thanks for Scomi, Pantech and Alam.... all making money and good news is there r in my bank account now.
Sifu Sam
What do you think of Supermax? Forsee any upside?
Thanks
“Markets are never wrong, opinions are.” ~ Jesse Livermore
Harta - Hartalega
* Has highest profit margins and return on equity in the industry.
* Demand for gloves is still increasing in the healthcare industry, in spite of the global recession.
* Margins and earnings for its fourth quarter are expected to improve further (will be announced in May). It will exceed its targeted net profit of RM55.5mil for the year ending March 31 as net profit has already hit RM53.5mil in the first nine months.
* Its share price will be made even a stronger run after its fourth-quarter results which will be released in May.
By year end, its target share price 5.
Good luck!
hi sam, i wanna recommend u ijmland-wa.
though myself bought at 0.19 but i think now still can buy in.
4 yrs to maturity and conversion price at RM 1.35.
furthermore ijmland offered it's staff to buy warrant at 0.33 if not mistaken.
i wish to hold it until at least RM 1, what do think bout this sam? thanks for advices ya.
Abit bz these 2 days, clients came down from china..need 2 bring him ard..k..make it short.
2 redarmys n will..congrats ^_^..if harta's qe goes inline with yr forecast, i believe u will get what u want , i knew u hv been calling harta since 2.00+..bravo !
2 redsarmy, If i were u, i will go 4 mom instead of son, cos its son has exceeded 30% premium liaoo..well, ijm is always a good stock 2 watch in heat mkt , worth 4 consideration ^_^
2 Jimmy, how 2 get 1.08 as FV 4 tgoff-wa?
1.08+ 0.55 (conversion ) = 1.63
1.63-1.25/1/25 x 100% =30%
Hence , anything above 1.08 is consider out of money^_^
got it ?
2 Remnant, well done ! now u know how 2 ride on bull ^_^...u understand d secret of my method liaoo.. jump in now ?...I wont.. y ?
Bcos...
1) This is only rotational play , once u see profit..take it n search 4 other underperformed stock again.
2) I am very sure mkt will go under a big correction from now till August 09 b4 she reach another peak by 1st qtr of 2010. Very sure indeed ! ..d problem here is, I dont know when ? hence , hit n run is d most ideal way 4 safe play .
I still think KSL will soon be catching up with other property counters like ENO, UEMland ...d short fall is "NO VOL" yet.
k.. need 2 go 4 lunch liaoo...c u
Hi sam,
Volume for scomi is very huge today...are u considering of buying back it??
GoD Sam! i just wanna ask: what is next stock to buy~~~~!!!???
Sifu but the 1.25 is the current price, mother share will change the price due to time to time! if when warrent is 1.08 that time mother share is more than 2 ,can we said that warrent still is in the money ? thanks sifu for your explain :>
Hi Sam,
AIG and CITI coming down again. Can what price do you intend to BUY again?
1st, Kinstel swing in high volume..today is Huaan pula...I am still waiting the volume for the Mastel...hope it will come soon..haha..
sifu sam, tgoffs-wa was kind of thinly traded. Hope it's slowly and steadily going up before the major correction occurs. Your TP is still 0.99?
thanks
Sifu Sam,
I am so sorry, i still dont understand how and where you get the 1.08 ?
If mkt goes down, will u keep the Pantech ?
sifu, your article really inspire me a lot in selecting stock !
tonight i manage to sort out some stock...
FA good !
Dear Sifu, regarding TGOFFS-WA, today closing price is 0.785, current premium is 5.12%. are you still waiting to buy bc anything <0.72?? As i see it is climbing up slow and steady now. Please advise... :)
Hi uncle Sam,
Just wondering wat is ur average Pe range for each sectors? coz some of the stocks like those in properties (ksl,metrokajang n etc) usually with low historical PE range (for the past 4-5 years with about 4 - 11 pe range).so when is the best entry time for sure shares? thx!
Sifu Sam, what do you think of Aeon? Is it a good time to go into this share at current 4.08 to 4.10 price? This share has the year lowest at 3.50 and a 52 week high of 11.10 with good dividend yield.
Woww..tgoff-wa rose 10cts 2 0.89 liaooo despite d fall of KLSE , so how now ? Mr mkt is wrong n I am right ? ha ha..of course no ! in short term Mr mkt can beat everyone but over d long term..Mr FA is unbeatable ^_^
This is what I like d most , every stocks down but mine !
2 those who interested on citi , i told u many time oledi... 2.50 2 3.80 shld be d range of citi, play ard that.
O N G is still d theme play of 2009 , look at my alam ..up almost 10 cts.. fyi, I hv sold off another 5 lots of alam @ 1.25 this morning..bal left = 10 lots.
2 others, I am in hurry now.. will come back 2 u this evening.
c u ^_^
Alam and TGOFF is ONG play and riding on news of new delivery of vessels and new contracts but these news are not new and is common that they get contracts upfront before delivery of vesselss. If u have no position dun think u shld go in now particularly when the market is down
walao eh...FA great !
I manage to get in KELADI and ASIAPAC...
now is on the profit run...
thanks sifu
I have entered another 400 shares on citi yesterday night at 3.52$
^^
If today drop some more ill enter somemore! haha
Tgoff-wa banyak kuat ini hari... Another worth to look at Masteel.
Ytlpowr-wb also must enter more...
Chiong ah...
sam, notice one counter ==> Kinstel..
Do you think we can go in now?
HARTA
Financial year end net profit 84.507 million (increased 21.41%)
Second Interim Dividend of 2 sen Less Tax and 2 Sen Per Share T.E.
Hi Sifu Sam,
Can you give me some opinion about gen motors.
Thanks a lot.
As I said in my earlier posting, d worst is definitely over , dont expect dow 2 go back below 7,000 anymore , n oso dont expect mkt to go all d way up without any correction^_^
read d below :-
13 May 2009
Doing better, but hardly great
Despite 'green shoots' in the recovering US economy, there is a glaring lack of faith in the longer term
By TOM PETRUNO
THE US economy is no longer in a free fall. Everyone has heard that by now, whether or not they feel that it's true in their own lives.
Wall Street believes it's true enough: the winter plunge in stocks has given way to a two-month-old rebound that has pushed most major share indexes up 30 per cent or more, and back into positive territory for the year.
The market's job is to anticipate key inflection points in the economy. Sometimes, it even gets them right.
Yet there's a spectre over this market recovery that looms larger as stocks climb: the short-term outlook for the economy has improved significantly, but there is a glaring lack of faith in the longer term.
Many big investors fear that the huge structural problems facing the economy - the ongoing need for consumers to shrink their debt loads, for example - will make it very difficult to foster an expansion robust enough to justify a sustained climb in share prices.
The real challenge for Wall Street, then, isn't staying optimistic this spring but figuring out how to be hopeful beyond the end of the year, even if the recession has ended.
That's why faith in a bona fide new bull market is hard to locate among veteran investors. And the two alternatives - another bear-market swoon, or a long period of share prices bouncing back and forth in a narrow range - hardly inspire joy.
For the moment, however, the markets are reacting logically to more signs that the economy is bottoming.
After reaching the depths of despair early in March, investors have been cheered by the 'green shoots' appearing in the financial system and economy, a term coined by Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke in March.
Last Friday, the government reported that the economy lost a net 539,000 jobs in April. That should qualify as a disaster - except in the context of far larger declines in the last few months, including net losses of 699,000 in March. Compared with the recent trend, April's employment report looks like a green shoot.
Likewise, in its long-awaited report last Thursday on the financial health of 19 major banks, the Fed said it would require 10 of them to bolster their balance sheets by a total of US$75 billion to protect against potential loan losses.
After the meltdown of much of the financial system last fall, Wall Street figures that a capital shortfall of US$75 billion is a cinch: bank stocks rocketed last Friday, leading another broad advance that pushed the Standard & Poor's 500 index up 2.4 per cent, bringing its gain since March 9 to 37 per cent.
Sceptics say the Fed's so-called stress test of the banks is a joke and doesn't come close to assessing the likely damage to the banks if commercial real estate loans, credit card loans and other debt follow the path of sub-prime mortgages.
But there have been enough other green shoots appearing, here and abroad, to push financial system fears to the side for now.
Indeed, the rebound in US stocks hasn't happened in a vacuum. Markets have surged around the globe over the last two months. So have prices of many commodities - another bet on a reviving economy.
Crude oil in New York jumped US$1.92 to US$58.63 a barrel last Friday, the highest price since last November, even though US oil inventories are at 19-year highs.
Some investors who correctly called the turn in markets this spring are sticking with the idea that the global economy has seen the worst of the recession.
Veteran money manager Jeremy Grantham, chairman of Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo in Boston , urged investors early in March to start putting cash to work. Because he has long been well-known as a market bear, Mr Grantham's bullish turn got attention.
In a commentary to clients last week, Mr Grantham said government spending aimed at ending the recession 'is so extensive globally that, surely, it will kick up the economies of at least some of the larger countries, including the US and China, by late this year or early next year'.
Yet Mr Grantham sees very little hope of lasting gains for stock investors in coming years. Any steep rally this year, he says, 'will set us up for a long, drawn-out disappointment not only in the economy, but also in the stock markets of the developed world'.
Why? Look to the massive amount of wealth destroyed by the global stock crash and by the housing market's collapse, Mr Grantham says. In the US , the total market value of housing, commercial real estate and stocks plummeted from US$50 trillion at the peak to below US$30 trillion at the recent low, he says.
That plunge, he says, 'is enough to deliver a life-changing shock for hundreds of millions of people.
'Collectively, we will save more, spend less and waste less. It may not even be a less pleasant world when we get used to it, but for several years it will cause a lot of readjustment problems,' Mr Grantham says.
Notably, he warns, this New World Order will keep downward pressure on corporate profit margins. If earnings can't accelerate meaningfully, stocks' upside will be limited. And without a powerful earnings recovery, companies will have less incentive to expand and add jobs.
Joseph LaVorgna, chief US economist for Deutsche Bank Securities in New York , says many investors may still be overestimating US consumers' ability to bounce back from the economic and financial debacles of the last two years.
The severity of job losses in this recession has blown a hole in the nation's personal income statistics, Mr LaVorgna notes. Add to that the burden of repaying the debt mountain built up over the last 25 years, the inability of many consumers to get new credit and the evaporation of home equity, and 'we believe consumer spending will be extraordinarily weak for some time to come, even after the economy stabilises and begins to improve some time next year', he says.
Mr Grantham and Mr LaVorgna are generalising about the future as they see it, obviously. It's a big planet with a lot of still-well-off consumers and enterprising companies. If the world isn't ending, there will be opportunities to make money in stocks even in a slower-growing global economy.
But their central point is that investors overall won't want to pay up aggressively for stocks if the economy is likely to face a slog, at best. As before, Mr LaVorgna says, investors will keep running into the same sobering question about the economy if stocks keep rising: 'How good is it going to get, really?' - LAT
2 jiang nan ..dont touch auto stock , d risk is there , auto stock is like leg of yr body , u can still survive if u chop it off unlike finance stock such as citi , u cant live without it .
what is next stock 2 catch ? well..i am waiting 4 d big pull back, still waiting ^_^
someone said, based on tgoff @ 1.25, wa shld be @ 1.08, what if mom @1.80 ? well...that's y I said tgoff-wa is a gem $$$$$, u can see she never drop below 0.75 anymore, seems like someone is eyeing on her too.
If u guys interested on steel stocks, take a look at leader @ 0.60+ , this bugger can go 4 short term swing, vol is there . PE is just ard 4+. Year low ard 0.45.
$ifu, M'sia vs China 2nite, my guess is M'sia upset China 3-2.
MS, WS n MD will deliver 3 points.
Ha ha, i'm too optimistic but anything could happen. All d best 2 M'sia!
Hi Uncle Sam,
Do u ever herd about this guy (david)? how u find out of him? He also use feng shui to predict about share market movement...
http://www.davidyap.net/tag/citigroup/
sam,
ur "leader" financial analysis s/b for Leader Universal (in cable biz) and not Leader Steel (loss making), right?
Wat's ur prediction on how low d pull-back would b?
thanks sifu ~ catch wat u means :>
dear sam,
i wanna ask..the leader stock tat u said is not steel stock but cable anda wire stock rite? coz if it is steel stock then the stock name is lsteel which is trading at 40 cents plus.........
hope u can clarify sir.
hi sifu, long time didn't post here but everyday sure surf ur blog one!!
just manage to get favco@0.89....do ur call 4 this stock still valid (beside tgoff-wa) and what is ur TP for favco....thank for ur advice...
Guys, bot 10 lors of leader @ 0.595, q favco @ 0.79 this morning..unfortunately couldnt get it.
Yes..my mistake..leader is cable maftr not steel maker.
2 herbert , I take FS as a guide , d key success is still FA.
I q another 20 lots of tgoff-wa @0.70 this morning,
tak dapat sighh...
2 118 n all d badminton fans , u guys watched d sudirman final yesterday ? d double match was superb , either side got d chance 2 take d games, fu n cai did very well yesterday , look at d speed n rally they performed , absolutely world class, enjoy that very much.
sam, same as you, i watched the doubles, BRAVO, compared to M'sia pair, no fight. Also, bot in 5 lots leader @ 0.60, thanks for your call!!!
red dragon sapu the cup,wonder
why they call sudirman , damm bugger lindan and men doubles.
really enjoy the games . is it their shuttle standard different.
Today red sea in market every damm
analysis (pd bye broker) market will come down and sell off.
OSK say sell on IOI but the price steady.(fa still solid)
TGOFF warrant hope can drop below 70 but still hold steady.
Looking forward to pump in PAnTECH
PE 4.
Sifu Sam,
Congratulation ! for making tons of money during Uptrend.
Best Regards,
Newbie
Wah Sifu you queue Tgoff-wa at 0.70? Lolz.. I queue at 0.76 also never get lah..
Stock market is suffering from a flu i think! ^^
sifu bought 8000 share on 0.76 ~
Yes, $ifu eventhough Koo n Tan lost, but i must say tat was d best performance so far. Seems like they enjoy d game so much tat playing without any pressure. Keep it up playing tat way n i'm sure they could deliver good result in d coming World Championship in India.
Hi newbies , long time no c..where hv u been ? making ton of money ? a little bit lah..
Who doesnt make money from recent rally except those TA n seng followers ? ha ha..
Guys, ..if Tgoff drop below 1.08 n its son wa still stay ard 0.72+..then u guys shld go 4 its mom not d son !]
2 118 , koo n tan played very well oso , that match can go either way one..50-50 match.
Hi Sam,
I still don't understand the conversion for TGOFF-WA (i am learning from your example).
I find TheEdge, the exercise price for Tanjong Offshore is 0.62 (i assume is for TGOFF-WA).
I derive this formula:
MOM x 1.3 = PREMIUM PRICE
(1.3 coz of the 30% premium that you say still acceptable)
PREMIUM PRICE - CONVERSION = FAIR VALUE
then i will get FV for TGOFF-WA -> 1.005
Hope you can correct me if i am wrong. Thanks :)
hi sam, i'm very excited with ur warrant evaluation:
1. when evaluate a warrant premium, you use:
X = WA + Conversion
Premium = (Mother - X) / X
2. when evaluate FV of a warrant, you use Premium 30%:
Y = WA' + Conversion
0.30 = (Y - Mother) / Mother
my question:
what if X > Mother, then we will get Premium in negative value, e.g. -9.0%, is this considered < 30%?
anyhow, my common sense told me if X > Mother, the warrant does not worth already. Please correct me if i were wrong.
Thank you in advance. ;)
1 : 人 = 吃飯+睡覺+上班+玩
2 : 豬 = 吃飯+睡覺
把 2 代入1 :人 = 豬+上班+玩;
兩邊各減去玩:人-玩 = 豬+上班
結論:不懂玩的人 = 會上班的豬
Hi Sifu,
As for me i managed to make 2 FREE Mercedes SLK compliment from KNM from 37sen to Sold at 82sen, 825sen, 83sen.
And today i hv re-entered KNM at 78sen, waiting patiencely for 1.00++ and another Mercedes SLK waiting for me at 1.00 ++.
Wish you and yr followers FUYOH FUYOH !
Just Me.
Newbie
hi sam, do u foresee ytlpowrwb can drop to ard 0.60+- in this coming month June-Aug? i see it hang around at 0.80 this two months..
woww newbies 2 free merz ar ? woww..salute salute ! anyway...luckily u didnt post it in seng blog..otherwise ppl will definitely lough at u one cos all these r back hand call ^_^ but...I trust u..cos i know who u r ha ha..
2 all interested on warrant. sorry 2 say..i am not a good teacher , hence... this is what it actually is >>
example:-
mom =1.00
son = 0.50
conversion 0.30
hence 1.00-0.50-0.30 = 0.20 premium ..this one i think u guys know it very well...
what about mom 1.00
som 1.00
conversion 0.30 ?
in money ?
yes is in money
cos 1.00 - ( 1.00 +.0.30)/ 1.00 x 100% = 30%
still in money.
if>>
Mom = 1.00
son 1.00
conversion 0.31
1.00- ) 1.00+0.31)/100%=31%
this is out of money !
anything below 30% is still consider as in money !
btw..look at my leader...up 5cts liaoo..not bad not bad.
Hi Sam,
i not manage to bot leader on friday. Can i enter in this level? Worth? waiting your advice. thanks
Hi Newbie!! Bravo!! nice catch for your KNM earning, i sold it too early d... haha
Hi Uncle SAM, AXIATA 1st Q report out today, i still holding it since few month, AP 1.9+, today close at 2.32 (+11 cts), my plan is to sell on stage started with anything >0.4+, how you think??
She had clear the bond for TM and in short terms, should not have any risk to hold it, but i feel scare when i look at her PE, its around 40+!! So hope to see your opinion :)
sorry sifu,
i'm confused, really confused.
regarding the conversion of TGOFF-WA, my maths is really mixed up. haha...hope no laughing you guys out there. this warrant thing is really consuming my time to understand it...but it's the beauty of FA....gotta learn and understand...so bear with me.
Questions:-
1) Based on the example you quoted last time,
1.08+ 0.55 (conversion ) = 1.63
1.63-1.25/1/25 x 100% =30%
TGOFF-Wa above 1.08 is consider out of money, only if mum is still at 1.25
Correct me if I’m wrong.
2) Based on Recent Market price,
Mum = 1.26
Son = 0.85
Conversion = 0.55
(0.85+0.55)-1.26 = 0.14
0.14 / 1.26 = 11%
But You commented to buy mum..if…
Mum = 1.08
Son = 0.72
Conversion = 0.55
(0.72+0.55) – 1.08 = 0.19
0.19/1.08 = 18% (why buy mum?)
Since the % still still nearly the same…. why mum is chosen??
3) another example to check if I’m correct with my maths.
If mum is 2.00, FV of warrant (w/ conversion) is
(X – 2.00)/2.00 x100% = 30%
X-2 = 0.3 x 2
X = 2+0.6 = 2.60
Fair Value for warrant = 2.60 – 0.55 = 2.05
arrhh...headache...this is only part of my thousand questions...
sorry
Sifu Sam,
Perhaps one day i will play badminton with you in KL when i come down.
I also know who you are too.
God bless and Fatt Fatt to you and yr followers.
Warmest Regards,
Newbie
2 newbie , HA ha really ? k..let c whether we got chance 2 play or not ^_^ n oso dun 4get 2 do charity since u hv made so much from knm..congrats bro^_^
Btw, pls send my regards 2 rachel.. she is very cute ^_-
come back 2 tgoffwa... based on yr example,..0.55+ 0.85 = 1.40
this 1.40 is yr cost..
mom stood at 1.25
if u convert now..u will be losing 0.15 ..but... as i said as long as it is below 30%...it is still worth 2 buy in.
cos 0.15 /1.25 x 100%= 8% .
FYI, I hv sold all my remaining alam @ 1.16 liaoo..bal is now zero.
KLCI approaching 1,041 , is time to unload some of my holding liaoo...
bro sam, u still holding leader? whats ur tp? mind to share. thx
Namo Amitabha ! Charity shall be done.
I will partner you in badminton and you take care in front of the net and I take care of the back with leaping smashes like Lin Dan. Ha ha ha.
Take care buddy.
Newbie
Sifu Sam,
Are you still holding Pantech?
hi sifu,
can you tell me the difference between a discount warrant & premium warrant? anything to do with 'in money' warrant or 'out of money' warrant?
assume the following equation: -
[(son + conversion) - mother]/mother = answer i or ii
i) <(+/-)30% = in money
ii) >(+/-) 30% = out of money (eg 31%)
am i right or am i missing something?
Sam, today market up 19pts,but looks like theme play is Plantation shares. Steel and Oil&Gas is out!
2 NEWBIES, IF I PLAY INFRONT, I SHLD BE CAI YUN N U SHLD BE FU HAI FENG LIAOO...K..LET TRY N C..NO HARM TRYING ^v^
2 Jimmy..yes i still holding 10 lots of pantech after taken 30 lots profit last week.
tinlung, yr formula is correct , besides in n out money, d most important factor is its mom's future earning .
Yes i am still holding on 2 my leader which i bot at 0.595.
Hi sam, how to see future earnings from mother share? itrying to learn. thanks
Sifu Sam,
What is your opinion on Pantech, to sell or keep?
This cntr has no volumn and the price is dropping faster than others.
Is it wise to buy in more?
My next TP to buy in is at 0.65.
Currently, I hv 35 lots in hand.
Sifu what badminton racket you using? ^^
sam, Axiata seems very hot these few days.
whats the fair price to go in again?
hello jason, what racket i am using u oso interested ar ? what about my underwear brand ? interested 2 know oso ? ha ha..i am using Yonex N also kason .
2 Jimmy , pls refer 2 what i hv posted lately, i hv taken profit on pantech since last week , bal left behind is now 8 lots only, hoping 2 buy back @ anything below 0.63.
about future earning, pls refer 2 my other blog, click on "who is samgoss " from d main page, find it yrself there.
hi sam, resorts is so strong, again, pls remind me to think twice b4 i jump in. sometimes i cant take the resistance.
sifu,
is time get ytlpower=wb again?
seems nobody mention here d. u all keep so much d la?
Sifu Sam,
I'm looking forward to partner you. I'm using Yonex Arc Saber 7. How about yours ?
By the way, today my another favourite counter GENTING goes up. Fuyoh! Fuyoh! Hopefully will get another free Honda Accord. Now our mkt is on rotational play that is Gaming and you can see FFMs are panic buying our Blue Chips this week.
Regards,
Newbie
Sifu,
Now is just the begining of the making of SUPER BULL. bcos USDollar is sliding downwards bcos FED has been printing "new money" of USD1.5trillion dollars into the system and caused USDollar to depreciate. US Funds are coming to SEA bourses to sapu and to benefit from the appreciation of Ringgit, that's why you can see all of our Blue Chips as been panic buy by FFMs.
All the best to you and yoru fans. Fuyoh Fuyoh !
Regards,
Newbie
Ha Ha Ha... That's what i like about you lah Sifu. Not only FA sifu but clever to joke.
I am using Xcalibur racket only... ^^ Orang Melaka punya brand.
Anyway Genting Singapore sudah lari banyak cepat. Lemah hatiku...
Congrats newbie on yr genting..fuyoh fuyoh..u know y i never hantam u on yr backhand fuyoh calls ? ha ha..cos i know who r u ? n i oso know how loaded u r , even without all these fuyoh gain u r oledi damn bloody rich liaooo..bukan ? ha ha
Guys, wanna 2 know where newbie stayed ? ( In penang) , wanna 2 know what car he is driving ?ask me lah ha ha...
Newbie , about d foreign fund moving into sea markets, in fact i oso heard about it , just that I wanna 2 play safe ..dare not to sailang all into shares mkt.
Yes..I am also looking into bluechips such as parkson , aeon , ytlpower n...need 2 do some research over d weekend.
cya ^_^
sifu sam,
what will happen to AIG after the one-for-20 reverse stock split?
sudah nak buang AIG ke? ke nak simpan utk hari tua anda?
Sifu,
Aiyoh you are very dangerous lah, you've know me so much. I think i better hide from you. Stock GOD does not show their faces or to be known by others lah.
I think Parkson will be the best choice, but the volume especially on the buyers side are very little only, thus if you buy alot but you cannot run. Bcos of this i did not hentam Parkson. I normally Sai-Lang on those more liquid stocks.
Thanks for yr teachings to those newbies and i have also learnt much from you. YOU ARE THE BEST SIFU OF ALL TIMES.
May the force of FUYOH be with you and your fans.
Just Me !
Newbie
haha....i also from penang. let me guess what car newbie drive. Ferrari F430? Is my favor car man.
when will we all can play badminton together? Hope we can have friendly match or some game to play together.
i think genting and resort is the only gambling company with cash flow, waiting to buy those gambling company who is going to trumble.
good luck to you all. ^_^
Nickname Newbie but i am sure he is an old bird! ^^
Not a Newbie... :)
sifu how about TA i heard that they going to give something god soon. so worth to buy ah?
In trading, Risk is Pre-Determined but Reward is Un-Predictable. Your Stop determined your risk. The Market decides your reward. Success in trading is supported by your discipline, diligence and decided by your Money Management and Psychology.
i using benedix with 200 miles power of jumping smach. pukul sikit
sudah pergi jauh dare tosparing.
My prediction 2010 is will be a strong bull market as all negative
news slowly dissipate.
sapu KNM maybe my honda deliver in 2010.
hi mamak traders, i thought KNM last time they annouce that to be delisted from board if some banks loan money to them. maybe i'm lost of something. Is it ard jump out from the danger zone? Just to know better from KNM, coz sifu SAM says this stock is very dangerous. Is there any good news, maybe i missed. Please tell me more about this coz i bought this stock at 2.03 in 2007. :(
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