^V^Former TA expert 's comment on Singh/ TA = Gambling ^V^

CPO Trader said...
From what Darlie Singh said:

"Well, if one is a trend following trader (trend following traders typically want a go signal from either trend following indicators such as MACD, Moving Averages, or a bullish looking chart pattern), then, Parkson does not fit the criteria. MACD is still moving downwards. EMAs across many durations are pointing downwards, even a downtrend is visible since the peak on 2 Jan 2008. So, trend-following traders would probably wait for the downtrend trend to reverse itself first, before thinking of jumping in. These include break-out traders as well."

As a former trend follower, I do not think Trend follower is so complicated. For me, to differentiate a trend follower with TA is to look at how complicated thier analysis could be. Here,"MACD is still moving downwards. EMAs across many durations are pointing downwards, even a downtrend is visible since the peak on 2 Jan 2008". This is definately not a good trend following. It is a TA nia!
Breakout traders? Ha. A breakout traders' system is even simple compares to trend following. (I am a breakout trader as I deal with all commodities rather than shares)For the past few years, I do not even need any of TA stuff. Even a simple metastock is no important at all. What I need is a price.

Then, on this point also....So, trend-following traders would probably wait for the downtrend trend to reverse itself first, before thinking of jumping in. These include break-out traders as well If you follow merely M.Covel's book and the theory of trend following, of course there is a chance you will wait for the trend! But, how do u know thw trend is correct? For those good traders I know (whether on commodities,forex, currency, etc), good trend follower are always in the market as they would not like to miss a huge trend.As for breakout traders, I lagi emphasis to stay always in the market.Why jump in jump out since you are adapting a trend following stuff? That was pure TA!

Nowadays, I am starting to realise why Unker Sam hate those TA fellow. I myself having the same feeling. Darlie is one person here. Those in www.bizfun.cc lagi funny. Claim to be expert and wanna take RM 7000 for his course to teach people TA! Look at his suspicious FKLI recommendation. some even said that CPO cannot play (in fact I think CPO topic dead off long time ago) Unker Sam, u really made the right choice for not joining them. if you joined them last time, I am a real culprit then. (for recommend you to them)

Lastly,sorry to leave so much of irrelevant stuff in your blog. Hope you do not mind.Anyway, can you show me the web address of this Darlie?I really keen to read on what he said. Thank you so much.
Keep up your good work. Cheers!



Unker Sam:
U can mail me at cpotrader@gmail.com. But, mail me abang darlie's web address, not his email address. I do not want to know him at all! lol!Just wanna see what he wrote so far!

Yes, I am a former TA. A real TA who knows almost everything (I am so ashamed that I know so much about TA). So, what is the reason I do not practice TA anymore? Since I mentioned I know almost everything about TA, let’s do it one by one from the basic. TA beginner normally start with trend line drawing and pattern recognition (flag lar, triangle lar, etc). As a TA learner getting smart with such a “SUBJECTIVE” stuff, they tend to become smart in drawing. At the end, because they are getting smart; each time they can draw different line or identify different pattern at different time zone. The best part is they can also 出猫. How they do it? Sometimes, they can adjust the line a bit the next day or so, just to show that their analysis still intact! I am a very stubborn person. If you tell me the line should be this way, I will not accept even a small alteration. At the end, how high is the winning possibility? I would say; the best is 50-50!

Ok, let’s move on with a higher TA skill. Let’s talk about indicators. (I don’t care what type of indicators it is – be it a trending, non-trending, whatever) If you check with any TA experts: which indicator is the best? Their answers most probably will be this: the best indicator is the one I am showing you right now – a chart which already happen and the said person found it hard just to show how good that indicator is. Please then randomly choose another chart and ask him to pick up the same value using the same ‘splendid’ indicator. Can he? To make this assumption simple, I think all traders know metastock; there is an option call ‘system tester’. So, the said option is to help traders find the best choice in selecting which TA tools to use. In another words, even the software itself do not know which system is the best. In fact, if you go and test one by one, you would be surprised that each different type of product (even between different shares) needs different tools in order to optimize it. Sometimes, the worst part is: you find zero system is suitable for trading purpose. So, how high again for such a higher skill tool? For me,still 50-50 nia! Correct me if I am wrong: I think unker Sam’s FA at least are quite firm. Not sometimes happen, then sometimes not happen. But, TA indicators really ‘keng’ one: sometimes appear and most of the time disappear.

So, a TA trader would argue this way: we can optimize with the combination of few tools. For example, one moving average is not enough. Then, add two. Still not enough? Add three lor! Still not enough? Add until you can see rainbow lor! (Guppy Multiple MA lar). My only question is: how high is the reliability? For me, the most is still 50% nia! So, why it is so great if the chances of winning still in 50%?

Ok, since everything is 50-50; there is still a chance that a trader would win in long run; that is, a trader must win huge and loss small. So, how to do it? TA guys will say: simple nia! Put some stop loss and let profit run! Ok, let’s talk about stop loss first. My question is damn simple, how to put your stop loss? A static 10%, 20% or using candlestick, Fibonacci, ect? At the end, the results might still be 50-50 as each method of stop loss will only guarantee you of one thing – it is either correct or wrong! So, what’s the difference? Ok, if the stop was correct on 50% of all trades, it will still be considered as good. What about this way, the stop trigger too early and at the end, you miss a big profit because you had been trigger out! Basically, stop loss supposed to act as an opposite tool against running with profit. But, sometimes it could turn out to be a good block for good profit running! Yes, you can reenter when you had been mistakenly force out. what if you miss also on the reenter? What is you reenter and then kena your stop again? In a consolidation market, there is a great chance that such a situation will happen umpteen times. Ok, ok….. you can use a tool like Wilder’s ADXR to test the volatility so that you won’t jump into consolidation? Heh….. take some investigation on why Wilder created the whole set of ADX, ADXR stuff? Do you think he wanna help us avoid consolidation?

Lastly, let’s touch about letting the profit run. That was very important for commodities trader like me. So, what TA guys said? They also let profit run. But, I am sure they will never let profit run like what unker Sam did with stocks. Unker Sam, sorry to said that (hope you don’t mind that I am comparing myself to sifu level like you), but I am also like u on my commodities trading. As long as my own rules intact, I see no reasons to run at all. Why jump in jump out when you are so confident? Guess what, I hold before an EURO positions for more than one and a half year! Ok, back to TA, why I said they would not hold like us? They can’t do so as their skill ask them not to do so mah. For example, they might use Fibonacci! You and I know that the most Fibonacci can go is until 423.6%! After that, the job consider done. So, those TA experts would jump out and wait for retracement to buy back. My question is: what if there is no retracement? What if the said trader missed out the retracement as they do not know the retracement rest at 61.8% 0r 50%? So, again; it is all about 50-50 myth!

Unker, my English is no good and my explanations also a bit blur sometimes. (Hope you understand) My intention of writing all these is to answer your question. So, you have the right to publish it or not as I worried my broken angmoh and poor explanation will create havoc in your blog. Lol!

In short, why trust a tool with 50-50 chances most of the time? What is the necessary to have stop loss when I think a trader should concern more on the capital allocation? For me, a stop loss is a real burden. As for profit taking, I never limit myself with the TA tools anymore as by doing that, I might end up running in out in out and my average profits (if profits) becomes average at the end. So, that sums up my experiences with TA! As for my breakout system, I apologized for not be able to reveal so much. Cheers!

***

CPO Trader said...
Unker:

this tai chek kong Seng is really tai chek kong plus 出猫王 . I leave a message on one of his article, namely 'Trading FKLI, CPO'. But, he doesn't dare to post it also even though it was a very polite message from me. My intention is simple. I found it misleading, so I thought wanna kepoh a bit. However, it looks like this tai chek kong is someone who is quite stubborn and not open-minded at all.

Anyway, human beings are funny sometimes. If wanna learn, go learn with those winners mah. why learn with someone who is half tanker? Funny, ha.......

Alex
Seng: Anyway, I think that's my last comment live on FCPO here ... It's now up to you to guess whether I have a position or don't have a position ... this is serious money at stake here ...

Guess what???? Have or no have only mah.....

31 Jul 08, 10:33
Seng: 3030 15 points. Easy money or is it???

Easy money? A game with margin which had been increased from rm8k to rm 11k only looking for 15 points? are you joking? In this bear run, good traders are easily holding more than 400 points of paper profits at the moment!No joke! That's the real value of high leveraging. 15 points? I showed you a better path: go play a mini contract of spot forex better! That also you must choose those without volatility. Otherwiese, it's a real waste!Put it this way,be practical on where to park your money and be practical on your return too. Do not look for a return which is so low and yet, the risk is so high. 50-50 again? no way, TA man!

31 Jul 08, 10:33
Seng: FCPO approaching 3030 ... I hope they haven't read this cbox ...

who's going to read your cbox? crocodile? croc wont have time for that lar... to trap small players from the cbox to earn what? 15 points?

I am not try to be harsh here. But, do not misleading people ler....

Unker: sorry again to add something.... feel free to delete it if you feel unnecesarry. cheers