^V^
Take a look at YTLPOWERWR @0.55 ^V^ Y this warrant is good to enter ? what is d risk n goodies of buying this warrant ?
Well...
This hv to come back 2 d fundamental of how to calculate d value of warrant.
There r 3 factors u must take into consideration B4 u jump into any warrant !!
1) Expiry date of d warrant ( must be at least 3 years n above !) Y must be 3 years n above ? ..d answer is simple..refer to those call warrants esp those china call warrants that u bought last year, how it is now ? ALL LANDED IN holland ??
2) D future prospect or future earning of its mom
3) In or out money of d warrant .
90% of d ppl who bought warrant usually sell it b4 d expiry date , like what we bought ijmwb @0.38, I am very sure 99.99% of u guys hv disposed it last year , am I not correct ?? d longest the warrant is d better value it is , know why ? it is bcos of time factor n interest that u save ! cos u only need to convert it in year 2018 ( this case is for YTLpower wr ), its mom is now stood at 2.10 n yr cost is only 0.55 + 0.10=0.65 , u save 1.45 b4 d conversion date (2018), calculate how much u save if u put RM1,450 as FD for 10 years !!! this is called time factor ^V^
2) Future prospect of its mom (YTLpower ), u can see from d attachment , its average eps 4 past 3 years stood around 0.22cts which giving u p PE @ 10 at current price of 2.10 ! dont 4 get, ytlpower is cash kow blue chip ! a cash kow blue chip selling to u @ PE10 is relatively cheap ! ask yrself , what ytlpower going to be in next 5 to 10 years ? or make it simple, will there be any bull run in next 5 to 10 years ?? make it more simple lah.. is 2.50 is that difficult 4 ytlpower to reach in next 5 years ? ( she dropped from high of 2.80 last Dec 07 ) .
3) OK..since 2.50 is sup sup sui to achieve in next 5 to 10 years... let calculate d value of this warrant , in or out money ??
as known to u guys, 4 a warrant to be classified as in money , its PREMIUM (X CIMA Weng )must not be exceeded 30% . now calculate yrself d premium of ytlpowerwr @ 0.65 :-
Yr cost 0.55 + 0.10
conversion price = 1.25
expiry date 10 years
mom = 2.10
0.55 + 0.10 +1.25 - 2.10= (0.20 or with discount of 9.4% * 0.20/2.10 x100%= 9.4%*) it is discount by 10cts ! dont 4get d time factor as i mentioned above !
Look at YTLpower wa = 0.86 , conversion price =1.35 , expiry date =8/1/2010 ( less than 2 years)
0.86 + 1.35 - 2.10 = 0.11 ( 0.11 / 2.10 x 100% = 5.2% premium )
Let make a comparison, YTLpowerwr giving discount of 9.4 % with 10 years time frame as compared to Ytlpowerwa with premium 5.2% but going to be expired in less than 2 years !
Based on < 30% premium calculation, Ytlpowerwr will only be out of money if its mom fall below 1.50 which i think is quite unlikely .(1.25 +0.10+0.55 -1.50 = 0.40. 0.40 /1.50 x 100%= 43% ) ,
See d gem ??
Shortfall of buying YTLpower warrant right:-
1) In bear mkt, warrant usually drop greater than mother shares in term of percentage.
2) Its base is too huge, not easy to move up.
3) very troublesome , u need to buy a bank draft n post it to d registra ( may be this is their trick also , thus, nobody willing to take all d trouble to buy its warrant right so that they can sapu as many as possible, lazy bird cant get worms)
FYI, I hv bought in 30lots @0.65 this morning , follow or not ? u decide ^V^
Btw,Fund control risk is needed b4 u jump in n also be prepared to hold 4 long term if mkt goes againts u ^V^
***
Flag this message^V^Take a look at YTLpwr-wr@0.55 ^V^Monday, May 26, 2008 3:08 PM
From: This sender is DomainKeys verified "LIM Thow Take"
Guys, take a look at ytlpower warrant right @0.55 , I hv bought in 30 lots @0.55 this morning , d said XXXX that i swap from bjcorp to bjcorplc is actually ytlpowerwr .
I will do a write up in my blog 2molo.
b4 u jump in , dont 4get to monitor yr fund control risk !
SAMGOSS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--- On Mon, 5/26/08, LIM Thow Take
From: LIM Thow Take
Subject: Re: YTLpwr-wr
To: "XXXXX
^V^
Bro, thanks 4 yr alert but this is not d way to value warrant ^V^
First , u must calculate d time factor n d interest saved from buying warrant esp warrant with 10 years time frame.
2) it is traded with premium 10% discount, way below that "30% In money requirement "
3) Future earning prospect of its mom (blue chip )
4) dont forget also, those who convert their warrant to mom, they do hv their cost also , they need to pay 1, 350 + their warrant which cost them 650, as for those who get its warrant right free , most of them bought it @ > 2.50.
Do u know what is d premium level when i first bought my IJMwb @ 0.38 ? it was traded @ 20%premium at IJM 4.50 , ( bear in mind, anything below 30% is considered in money for warrant with d condition of its expiry date must be more than 3 years ).
It has very strong support at this level , make it simple.. what do u think blue chip like ytlpwower going to be in next 5 to 10 years from now ? or may be u should think of is there any bull run in d coming 10 years ? i dont think ytlpower will stay as it is in next 5 to 10 years ^V^
D question now is how low she can goes ?
I Bought 30lots @0.55 this morning .(fund from swap of bjcorp n bjcorplc )
I will do a write up on warrant in my blog when i am free.
SAMGOSS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--- On Sun, 5/25/08, XXXXXXXXXXXXX> wrote:
From: XXXXXXXXXXXXXX>
Subject: YTLpwr-wr
To: "Sam"
Date: Sunday, May 25, 2008, 12:27 PM
Bro, Thanks for highlighting this counter. After study, everything looks convincing except follow: Fund manager is worrying dilution effect of additional 2.2bil warrants. That's the reason why YTLpower drop in past few days. The selling pressure may continue. see this: Current market capitalisation = RM2.11 x 5.3bil paid up = RM11.2bil Potential diluted capitalisation = RM11.2bil divided by (5.3+0.8+2.2)8.3bil shares = RM1.35 only As you informed you will go in on Monday. My suggestion go in stages, more selling pressure is possible due to dilution of NTA per shares. This is the worry of the current institutional investors. Any comment?
53 comments:
Dear Uncle Sam,
Thanks for your insight on YTLPOWER.
Is true that if we bought at RM0.65will get discount of 4.7% if against MOM market price. But we also have to take into consideration of dividend issue on next week 7.5% (ex-date 6/6/08). Therefore, we only got the discount of 1 cent only. pls correct me if i'm wrong.
Dear sifu Sam:
Thank for your sharing,I am still new in stocks market and learning,not very clear about warrants ,I will do much study on it.Futhermore,i have no much fund coz recently have buy in EVERGRN.
$ those who asked what is d 10cts for ?
pls read d below:-
Contents : OFFER FOR SALE OF PROVISIONAL RIGHTS TO ALLOTMENT OF UP TO 2,205,127,393 WARRANTS AT AN OFFER PRICE OF RM0.10 PER WARRANT BY ASEAMBANKERS MALAYSIA BERHAD TO THE EXISTING SHAREHOLDERS OF YTL POWER ON A RENOUNCEABLE RIGHTS BASIS OF ONE (1) WARRANT FOR EVERY THREE (3) EXISTING ORDINARY SHARES OF RM0.50 EACH HELD IN YTL POWER (“OFFER FOR SALE”).
Kindly be advised of the following :
1) The Rights commence of trading : [ 21 May 2008 ]
2) The Date of Despatch of the Prospectus and Provisional Allotment Letter of Offer : [ 21 May 2008 ]
3) The last day and time for Acceptance, Renunciation and Payment : [ 4 June 2008 @ 5:00pm ]
4) The Rights cease quotation : [ 28 May 2008 ]
The Stock Short Name, Number and ISIN Code [ YTLPOWR-WR, 6742WR and MYL6742WR006 ] respectively
Herbert..u r sharp ! anyway..d dividend of 7.5% is an added goodies to its mom price..who knows it willl boost its mom price further up b4 6 of june !?
Airasia reached 1.00 this morning , eagerly to buy in stages but due to fund management control , i cant go in anymore , fund already allocated 4 ytlpwrwr .
Thanks for your advice. I've subscribed to warrants but never bought a WR stock before, so completely ignorant of the procedures. I know that YTLPOWER shareholders have already received the prospectus/letter of offer by now, so when we buy YTLPOWER-WR from them before they cease quotation tomorrow, will we receive the letter of offer and make it in time to send them the bank draft by 4/6/08 5:00pm? Thanks.
Sam,
your stand on Huaan still the same? AT 0.69 now seem like a rather good mid term buy. So i talk cock or not?
If u know d FA behind huaan n its latest QE jumped, u can sleep very well with it ^V^
All d steel stocks falled in recent dip not only huaan , good buy ? of course ^V^
if u can hold masteel 4 > 3 months b4 she jumped to 2.10, i dont think u cant do d same on huaan !?
Did i answer yr question ? ha ha
Got 10lots of Airasia @1.017 today. Now everyone can fly ... ^_^
Got 10lots of Airasia @1.017 today. Now everyone can fly ... ^_^
Thanks, bro.
Just small thing, i see this announcement one dated 7/5/08 say "the exercise price of the 2000/2010 Warrants will be adjusted downwards from RM1.35 to RM1.20. In accordance with Clause 2(iii) of the Memorandum to the Deed Poll, the adjustment to the exercise price of the 2000/2010 Warrants will take effect from 9.00 a.m. on 16 May 2008, being the day next following the entitlement date for the Offer for Sale of 15 May 2008."
so i think the exercise is 1.20
Hmmm... Huaan's EPS for the latest QE drop slightly. look like they can't pass 100% of the cost increase in raw material to their customer.
However, if they can maintain the EPS for the coming QEs.
EPS 3.17cts x 4 = 12.68cts
with the price now 0.67
PE = 0.67/0.1268 = 5.3 (Wau!!)
(Sifu, correct me if I am wrong)
Not to forget the above haven't take into consideration of the production capasity espension yet.
And if the secondary listing can be materialised. it will definately a big big bonus but I think it won't happen so soon.
Furthermore, 20% divident to be proposed for approval in the comming AGM. Where to find a stock with so high devident one.
FYI, my average cost for Huaan is 0.745, looking forward to buy more and than keep it in the safe for 3-6 months unless it price surge up suddently.
Someone told me that ytlpowerwa conversion price has been revised down to 1.20 n it is at discount now..well bro..even she is at discount like ytlpowerwr but still ytlpowerwr is more value buy than her ! know y ?
cos her life spent is less than 2 years as compared to ytlpowerwr which is not yet born with time frame of 10 years !
As for huaan dip..ha ha need to borrow our bros TL n Ben said :-
***
The current dropping is tie to the uncertainty in China market as Huaan is treated as a red chip. The situation for sure will reverse once everything in Sichuan earthquake has been settled down and go for reconstruction. At that time, those panic bugger will come in to buy Huaan again. I have just bought somemore @0.67. ^_^ Ciao, have to catch flight right now. See ya. Let's sink and rise together.
On 5/27/08, kylim28 wrote:
Hi Bro I am cool about the price dropping....the more they drop, the better ! Because the pressure of going for oversea 2nd listing will becoming more immense and pressurise the management. Even Huaan fly to RM1.50 today also no use because in HK, they can fetch PE 15 - 20x....which may translate into RM2.25 - RM3.00 based on FY 2008/09 EPS.
***
Feel ok now with what our 2 tailows 's statement ?
To be very honest.. I wont give a damn even huaan drop below 0.60 in next coming days,, as long as its FA remain unchanged , i can sleep well with it ^V^
Hv a nice day bros..88
Hi everyone...
agree with bro TL and ben....eversince i buy stock recommended by ur sifu sam, i can sleep very well even the stock was down for the whole week!!...why??? coz i know all the stock was solid in their FA n i dun mind holding it for a long as i can till it reach the TP...
Need to thank sifu for his recommendation on masteel (buy at 1.4++ sell at 2.10)...the beauty of FA will always beat "just know to talk" TA....hahahaha...jgn mare arrr TA follower....
Hey sam, you have mistakenly treated me as "Tailow" already. haha, in fact Tailow is in China helping the fugitive right now. ^_^
By the way, Cken the dividend yield of Huaan is not so impressive. It just slightly higher than the FD rate @3.4% only. However the future prospect of Coke business still remain convincing. I expect Huaan to get cash inflow from operation of >RM100mil in 2008. If they return this RM100mil to shareholders only then is considered as high. ^_^
Hi Benjamin, haha, everyone can fly.. frankly speaking that Airasia can touch RM0.85 if crude oil remain steady between 130++ per barrel.
back to HUAAN:-
Welcome to Hua-An Group's Investor Relations FAQs
1) What is Hua-An Group's core business?
Hua-An Group through its wholly-owned subsidiary Linyi Yehua Coking Co., Ltd is principally involved in the production and sale of metallurgical coke and its by-products namely, coal gas, tar, ammonia sulphate, crude benzene, coal slime and middlings.
2) Why Hua-An Group choose to list in Malaysia & when was the Company listed?
In 2005, Hong Kong Stock Exchange was only interested in huge market capital public companies. In Singapore, there were over 100 Chinese Companies listed on SGX and lower PE was offered. In view of being the first Chinese company to be listed on Bursa Malaysia and better PE offering, Hua-An Group decided to list in Malaysia. Hua-An Group was officially listed on Bursa Malaysia on 26 March 2007.
3) How much funds was raised during IPO & their allocation of utilization?
RM 200 million was raised. RM 150 million was earmarked for capital expenditure, RM 15 million each for setting up marketing office in Malaysia & working capital for coke operation and balance RM 20 million was expenses relating to restructuring scheme.
4) What is the par value of each share, issue price and the present amount of outstanding shares?
RM 0.50 is the par value, issue price is RM 1.00 and present outstanding share is 1,122.3 million share.
5) Which countries do Hua-An Group have operations in & what is the production capacity?
Hua-An Group has a single production plant located in Linyi City with build-up area of approximately 320,000 sq m. The current production capacity is 1.2 million tones of metallurgical coke.
6) How much capacity is Hua-An Group currently running?
110%. We are able to do so because of our relatively new set-up (since May 2004), modern facility set-up, better blending of coal and charging (compressing) process.
7) What is the dividend payout ratio?
Hua-An Group is targeting to distribute approximately 20% of profit after tax as dividend.
by the way, my friend bought in last year at RM1.40 but when it touch RM1.80, my friend insist hold and wait for RM2.50.. until today still holding. So patient is he?
--冷眼分享集
最有成就的投资家，没有一个是靠预测“时机”（Timing）而成功的。
我认为“可以买进了”，并非我有预测股市动向的能力。
我没有这种“先知”的能力，我也不认为有谁有这种能力。
即使是最成功的投资家和经济学家，也没有这种能力，何况是平凡的我们。
我认为可以买进的理由是：
许多股票已很便宜了，值得买进作为长期投资了。
我强调“长期”，是因为经验告诉我：股票投资不能靠“短期”赚钱。
买进价值被低估，前景不错的股票，长期持有，是最稳当的赚钱途径。
赚大钱需长期投资
诸位不可立志赚快钱，却不可不立志赚大钱。
赚大钱非长期投资不可。
股票惟有价值被低估时才可以买进。
现在价值被低估的股票，比比皆是。
If talking about HUAAN.. How do we apply above principle into HUAAN share price today? regret to hold?? No way, it is FA as uncle SAM said.
Ha ha herbert,u r absolutely correct, pity those TA buggers , they still think they can time d entry n
***
--冷眼分享集
最有成就的投资家，没有一个是靠预测“时机”（Timing）而成功的。
我认为“可以买进了”，并非我有预测股市动向的能力。
我没有这种“先知”的能力，我也不认为有谁有这种能力。
即使是最成功的投资家和经济学家，也没有这种能力，何况是平凡的我们。
***
They think they 有这种“先知”的能力，ha ha I think SINKA is more suitable 4 them ^V^
wowww yr friend bought at 1.40 ah ? tell him uncle sam said patience is golden ^V^
A zero gearing company with PE 6+- , traded below ipo of 1.00 + full capacity would be running by 2nd qtr of 08 , how low can she goes ?
As for AA, ha ha..if timing stand on my side, i wish i can swap my Ytlpwrwr to AA ^V^
0.80cts ?? emmmrrr..how nice if i can sell my ytlpwrwr @>0.95 n swap to AA @ 0.80 Ma Ma mia $$$$$$$$$
Dear sifu sam,
Crystal clear on warrant now :)
Get AirAsia @1.00 today.....
Fly high.....
2 Bursa trade, by now u shld know d beauty of FA from what u made on Masteel, still remember Mr sour said ? no big deal making money in bull run ! bull run mah..ah pek ah sok also made money lah..what so big deal ?? ha ha..may i know is first half of 08 considered bull run ?touch yr heart n ask yrself, did u make money this year ? if u think by cheating yrself can ease yr shares losses pain..well, pls go ahead ^V^
FYI, 2 weeks ago, I rec'd a mail from someone asking me to buy gpacket @2.60 ,with his insider news saying d deal with intel has already on n is getting ready to fly, i replied to him n said,I will never buy in any stock with PE >30 ! look at Gpacket today ? down 60cts from that date he called to buy !
see? once its earning turns negative ,stock with PE >30 will lau sai all d way !
14.00 in 5 years time4 gpacket ? well..in order for her to reach 14.00, she must first turn its earning from loss to gain, second, Its PE must not be exceeded 10 for d coming years! third, EPS of RM1.00is a must ! then only possible for her to achieve 14.00 in 5 years time !
b4 that, from negative earning to EPS of 1.00, that easy to achieve ? not easy..not easy bro.
Think a little..think ^V^
latest news from the IR of HUAAN, Mr Bernard Tan, the latest coke price transacted is at RMB2,080
TL : Look like for the recents day, Sifu Sam blog is dominated by YTL Power warrant aka Power Ranger ! and Huaan.
Both stock is damn suck FA stock and like a sucking hard solid rock.
( not BATU...offcourse..hehehe )
Bros...based on Shanxi Province coke price for May 2008, another raise of RMB200 on the card already !
Well..share price up and down...but I hope our blood pressure won't be so volatile like stock market !
Take care.
haha.. HUAAN falling down!! falling down!! can tahan boh?? haha patient.. patient. see ENGTEX also a FA stock when stick around RM0.70 but suddenly touches RM0.50 after GE result (Black Monday)!!! CI limit down.. haha!!. But today? how? is he still stood like lousy FA stock?? despite good earning result and high EPS & low PE?? How about Jaks?? Lousy EPS and High PE, today he how??? Need answer boh?? TA.. haha give me the answer la.
Guys,, remember Airasia slogan ? now everyone can fly ! ha ha.... it is now 0.985..d new slogan is " Now everyone can buy " ha ha
I am still waiting 4 her to come down 2 0.80+-, if that happened, i will take up another 5% fund to buy it ! i cant buy it now cos d money allocated for share investment 4 this year is only 15% of my total Fund. BUT if she ever fall 2 0.80.. i will surely top up another 5% for it !
4 those regular customer of AA, u better make sure AA 's pilots holding none of their company's shares..otherwise..imagine u r at 30,000 feet high n yr pilot just got d message that his AA shares is falling down 2 < 1.00 !! ha ha noone can guarantee what he will do next ^V^
AA is falling down ..falling down..now everyone can afford to BUY ! how u like that my dear Tony Fernandez ??
Article for TA follower!! if you refuse to listen then i'm very sorry.. can not help you anymore. PLs wake up!! --冷眼分享集
我有一种本领，只要与人交谈5分钟，就知道一个人在股票投资上，是赚钱还是亏本。
当然，这5分钟的“股谈”，必须是在毫无准备，完全不设防的情况下作出。
而投资的盈亏，是指长期投资的结果，并非短期的成绩。
如果在5分钟内，他所谈的或所问的，都离不了股市会不会起、有什么“贴士”、某股将会被炒、热钱进来“推”某股、小道消息谓某股将会飞涨……之类的课题、对“炒”和“玩”股口沫横飞，对公司的基本面只字不提，他的投资多数亏本。
如果他一见到我，就不断追问：这个行业的景气如何、公司的产品销路如何、公司的管理层是否精明和可靠、公司过去的盈利表现如何、盈利能否持续、成长潜能何在？公司的前景展望如何？
对于股市起落、小道消息、有无人炒作等，只字不提， 这个人多数能在股市中赚钱。
每一个人都有自尊心、都爱面子，很少人肯认“输”。所以，谈到股票投资，个个都是赢家，实际上，人人都在“暗捶”。
内容反映态度
依我的观察，根据谈股的内容所作出的盈亏揣测，准确性出奇的高。
这一点也不奇怪，因为谈话的内容，反映了一个人的投资态度。
那些开口是“炒”，闭口是“玩”的人，都是顽固的投机者，他们投机成瘾，已到了无可救药的地步。
长期投机，无异长赌，长赌必输。
那些谈话内容，完全环绕着基本面，对股市动向，股票炒作，只字不提，这类股友，都是严肃的长期投资者。
这类投资者，抱着正确的投资理念，他们深切了解，买股票就是买公司的股份，买股份就是跟人合股做生意，投资的成败，取决于公司的业绩表现。
所以，他们把注意力，投注在公司上，而不是投注在股价的变动上。
常理推测结果
他们坚决相信：只要公司业绩标青，股价自然会起，根本不必担心。
不看业绩看股价，是舍本逐末。
所以，5分钟的“股谈”，就能辨别投资者在股市的表现，而且准确性奇高，并不是有特异功能，而且根据常理推测所得的结果。
一个人，做一件事，如果做了10年、8年，还是没有成绩，就必然会放弃，或是改弦易辙，这才是合乎常理的做法。
但是，一些人在股市中投机，经过10年、8年，结算一下，还是亏本，这说明了这种方法是错误的。既然如此，就应该放弃，改变路线，采取更有赚钱把握的方法，才是合理的行为。
但是，许多人在投机10年、8年之后，伤痕累累，仍不肯悔改，还要继续投机下去，实在令人费解。
guys, if you wanted to buy AirAsia. Pls think twice b4 jump in. The best is jump in RM0.55.. Haha!! possible boh?? As i know AA had high gearing ratio and purchase of fixed assets (Airbus)-Financial Lease not operating lease. So he have to struggle to overcome high crude oil risk and working capital chain risk despite remain strong in BIZ activities to generate profit but profit margin will be lower and high operating cost. Below articles about QANTAS AIRWAY had take some correctioness action to overcome current issue. See how smart is he to protect his BIZ and step backward. AIrAsia le?? seems like recently keep boosting his promotion on additional route and more investment.. something wrong?? haha, u decide..
Australia's Qantas cuts routes, staff due to high fuel costs
Posted: 28 May 2008 1557 hrs
Photos 1 of 1
A Qantas airline plane at Sydney Airport
SYDNEY : Australian airline Qantas on Wednesday said it would slash capacity by five percent by cutting routes, services and jobs and retire several aircraft to cope with soaring fuel prices.
Chief executive Geoff Dixon said the airline's fuel bill would increase by more than 2.0 billion dollars (US$1.9 billion) in 2008/09, representing about 35 percent of the company's total expenditure.
In response, Qantas would cut capacity by about five percent -- the equivalent of grounding six aircraft, he said.
"Despite our fuel hedging strategy, fuel surcharges, two separate across-the-board fare increases and a recruitment freeze, we are not bridging the widening gap between the actual increase in the cost of fuel and the amount we offset," Dixon said in a statement.
The chief executive said the flag-carrier would retire one B737 aircraft, ground two B767 aircraft, accelerate the retirement of four B747-300 aircraft, and adjust the flying patterns of other planes.
Qantas' budget off-shoot Jetstar will lose one A320 aircraft and the delivery of another A321 will be cancelled.
"This will enable us to make significant changes to domestic and international flying for both Qantas and Jetstar," Dixon said.
"In some cases, this will involve pulling off routes entirely. In other cases, we will scale back frequencies and capacity."
Several domestic routes currently operated by Qantas and Jetstar will be cancelled while other services will be reduced.
Changes to Qantas' international network will be announced within a week.
Dixon said the scale of the changes meant that it was "inevitable that a reduction in staff numbers will be necessary," adding that senior executive's pay has been frozen and a July pay review for 1,000 other executives deferred.
"Qantas remains a fundamentally strong company, with a good balance sheet and a commitment to investment that includes a 35-billion-dollar order for aircraft," Dixon said.
"We must make these hard decisions now, however, if we are to ensure the ongoing strength of Qantas, preserve the jobs of the vast majority of our current workforce, and position ourselves for growth when the trading environment improves."
Hi Sam,
this is a good call.
Take a look at the first batch of ytlpwr-wa that was offered many years ago, those who are holding till now are making alot $$.
Nothing will stop this new batch of ytlpowr-wa to behave the same as the previous offering.
Sam, i don't think ytlpowr PER is 10PER. The recent price drop of ytlpowr from ~RM2.5 to 2.1 was due to dilution of the big batch of warrants being converted. The earnings will get dilute too. If not mistaken, the adjusted PER should be ~13 or 14.
Great stuff guys, from discussions here, i think my shopping list for the bottom is complete. 2 steel counters, 2 OnG, 2 good blue chips and also some bargains such as bjcorp-lc, AA and ytlpower-wr.
I'm eyeing the panic selling time when our political drama unfolds.
TL : WELL SAID...WELL SAID...SIFU SAM
NOBODY SHALL LOOK DOWN ON THEIR MOTHER TONGUE. WE ARE CHINESE AND ALL OF US IS ' DRAGON CHILD '
TL HAVE FAILED TO LEARN CHINESE AND NOW IS ' BUTA - CHINESE '...BUT THE DEEP REALISATION OF FAILING TO PERFORM AND STAND UP AS A DRAGON CHILD PROMPTED ME TO ACT DRASTICALLY BY QUEING UP IN A CHINESE SCHOOL FROM 6.00PM UPTO NEXT MORNING 10.00AM JUST TO ENROL MY DAUGHTER FOR PRIMARY ONE IN CHINESE SCHOOL.
I SHIT, I EAT AND I SLEEP WALKING FOR THE ENTIRE 16.00 HOURS AT THE SCHOOL !!!!!!!!!!!
DURING THIS 16 HOURS, TL HAVE BEFRIENDED A LOT OF MOSQUITOES FRIEND !!!!! THIS IS KARMA RETRIBUTION FOR TL WHO HAVE NOT LEARNING CHINESE .
FOR THOSE BANANA MAN - WHETHER YOU ARE DAMN GOOD AT SPEAKING ENGLISH UNTIL YOUR MOUTH WITH BUBBLE AND HEAVY SLANG !!! PLEASE DIG A HOLE AND COVER YOUR SHIT HEAD INTO THE HOLE WHEN YOU SAY THAT YOU ARE PROUD OF NOT LEARNING CHINESE !
TL HAVE DISSAPOINTED THE GREAT GRAND PARENTS WHO ARE ORIGIN FROM CHINA AND WILL NOT REPEAT THE SAME MISTAKE AGAIN. TL NEXT GENERATION WILL BECOME LOONG TIK CHUAN REN AGAIN !!!!
LOONG TIK CHUAN REN !!!!!
LOONG TIK CHUAN REN !!!!!
LOONG TIK CHUAN REN !!!!!
LOONG TIK CHUAN REN !!!!!
Herbert ha ha..seems like u r more anti TA than me ha ha..y ? is it bcos u hv tasted d beauty of FA ?? ha ha..wise guy views d same ^V^
U r absolutely right , this is typical TA type >>> 那些开口是“炒”，闭口是“玩”的人，都是顽固的投机者，他们投机成瘾，已到了无可救药的地步。
长期投机，无异长赌，长赌必输。ha ha wake up TA wake up !
Know y i always stressed follow those with said b4 hand proven track records 's blogger ? read d below :-
每一个人都有自尊心、都爱面子，很少人肯认“输”。所以，谈到股票投资，个个都是赢家，实际上，人人都在“暗捶”。
Y those big talker dare not to post their call b4 hand picks ? it is bcos : first, their TA method is not reliable ! second 每一个人都有自尊心、都爱面子，很少人肯认“输”。所以，谈到股票投资，个个都是赢 ! ka ka ka
If u ask me , uncle sam 爱面子 or not ? d answer is "YES" , cos he is human being ! but he 爱面子 with proven track records unlike those TA buggers , 爱面子with no proven track records ! Oppppsss sorry, they hv proven records too ! they hv Proven failed records !!such as China call warrants, Gpacket n more... ha ha
Unker D n Unker S , as a chinese , i presume u 2 understand yr mother tongue well , if not pls get someone to translate 4 u ^V^ it is not a shame of being a banana man bcos it is not yr fault ! but it is very shameful 4 those banana mans who look down their mother tongue n calture ? am i not correct ? know what i means ? if u hv tasted chili b4, u shld know how spicy it is ha ha ha ....
Herbert , regarding AA..this time we hv different view ha ha... 0.50 4 AA ??? very very unlikely ! well... it is ok to hv different views , ha ha bottom line.. FA that count !
HA HA TL... well said well said.like chan chun chuan said.. TL is a language genius , by listen to TL's mandarin speaking , u thought he is from chong hua high school ha ha
2 all d LCLY bananas out there , if u know how tough our ancestors fight 4 our chinese education right with our government , I am sure u will never look them down by calling them china ah pek anymore!
How radiculous it is if a malay doesnt know how to speak in BM , same goes to chinese know nothing about his mother tongue ^V^
d below is dedicated to our great benny Dalison :-
Hello Ah kow " ni jiao shen me ming ? ( what is yr name ? )
Ah kow replied " excuse me China Ah Pek ! i dont speak chinese , my name is Benny dalison .
Woowwww... sound like yr father is mat salleh lah ? dont play play lah ..
u catch it benny dalison ?
ha ha .jgn marah yah ?
^V^
Hi bros, although i am very confident on Huaan , ytlpwrwr , bjcorp n XXXXX in mid n long term but still i think we need to take extra cautious b4 we put our hard sweat money in KLSE. if u ask should we average huaan on its way down ? well... it depends on how big is yr fund holding, if yr invested fund exceeded 40% , i will say "NO" dont average down, hold it n put it under yr pillow.
U can see from my posting , though I was so confident on Ytlpowerwr n yet i only placed less than 3% of my fund on it. Tak lain tak bukan , political uncertainties n high crude oil price that pull me from jumping in.
As for those who cannot eat n sleep after putting their hard sweat money on Huaan..ha ha.. U ding U ding ( be calm ) ! take a look at masteel n Engtex , they were once falled below our buying cost b4 they r what they r now ! this is d beauty of FA . As long as their fundamental remain unchanged , u can sleep well with them.
YTLpower keeps climbing up n up.. 4 those who bought at 0.65+-, u can start counting how much u going to make once she open ^V^
Imagine if YTLpower reach 2.30, how much its son worth ? 2.30- 2.00 =0.30 gain ?? 0.30 /0.75 (our cost ) X 100% = 40% return in less than 1 month !
Is another 100% shares return in 2 years something impossible ? Is bear mkt hard to make money ? yes it is hard but not impossible if u adopted FA ^V^
let fly n sink 2gether ^V^
Haha. Uncle sam. You are right. Recalled back to 2 months ago.
Between Jaks and Engtex. Which one better for investment.
TA sure said Engtex? Got goreng boh? Haha!! See today Engtex!!
Wowww..herbert AA 2nd qtrs earning still in positive zone with eps of 6.8cts ! woww geng ! after crude oil passed > 100 for past 4 months still she managed to made profit ! how about coming 3rd qtrs > based on this, i think d worst scenario for d coming qtrs shld be around 2 to 3cts ! hence..calculate yrself ;_
1st qtr = 7.7cts
2nd qtrs= 6.8cts
3qtrs = 2cts (forecasted with c oil hitting 133)
4 qtrs = 0 cts (forecasted with c oil hitting 180 )
so ? eps for 08 = 16.5cts translated into PE of 6 !!
So how about next year 2009 if crude oil hit USD200 per barrel ? all d airlines close down n kaput ah ??if that is d case ? ABB n G bush must take train or ship to travel lah !
If capable man like TF need to close shop due 2 high crude oil, then what about those lousy airline like MAS ? close shop oso ah ?
D whole world know that high crude oil will definitely pull down d margin of airline stocks, but then pls think a little, has it been factored in on its recent dip ?
0.50cts ? very unlikely ! even 0.80+ also not that easy to reach ! ^V^
Hey herbert, wondering what make you so sure that if oil stay above USD130/bbl Airasia will go lower to 80sen?
Let me do some analysis here:
First, ppl saying high oil will hurt airline business. True? Fully agree. But to compare Airasia to Qantas is like comparing apple to orange because AA is a low cost carrier which normally has an extent of advantage comparing to full service carrier when economy slowdown.
Second, market is expecting Airasia to publish bad result end of May. Question is how bad? But bear in mind, Airasia has fallen 48% since Jan. In my point of view, the price has reflected the concern of lower profit. The recent slump in last few days can be assumed to be the worry on bad result publication. But I would say, if Airasia made a loss, the slump should come earlier due to insider as you know they should have known the result 2-3weeks after month end closing. What if the result is not as bad as what market expected? (update: AA just publish a 150% higher PBT than corresponding qtr. So, do you think it is likely to go down further? Note: I am taking PBT to avoid distortion of the recognition of ITA in deferred tax. )
Third, compare the management team of Airasia to Mas. Which one better?
Fourth, substantial shareholder (EPF and Nomad Investment) is collecting as per announced on Bursa website. In another word, insider is providing support.
Fifth, branding advantage. I have to salute to Tony that he has done an excellent job by creating brand awareness of Airasia. Ask yourself, when talk about low cost airline, which one come to your mind first? It just like when take about softdrink, coca-cola is the one come to our mind. Do you know how much they value brand of coca-cola itself?
Based on above 5points, I see no reason it will touch 80sen unless unforeseen event happen (touch wood!!).
I feel warm inside when i see a man speak so highly of his Chinese ancestry. That is very important. I am a Malay who will marry into a Chinese family and I've learned so much about the beauty and richness of the Chinese culture. It has been around as one of the longest running cultures in history. There is no reason for a Chinese for that fact to look down on his/her culture. Even as a Malay I am learning to speak Mandarin and I am thoroughly enjoying it at every step of the way.
Hi sifu Sam,
What happen to YTLPOWR-WR (6742-WR)
Any comments on SUIWAH (9865)?
Hi Sam,
Thks for your 'U ding U ding'... Other than sharing us with your insight on stocks, u do take the trouble to make some 'psychological building' to us. You have shown your kindness 2ALL your fans here.
I understand that it's NEVER easy to make call with proven tracks record. Needs guts and insight on stocks. I can no other answer make, but, thks, and thks.
Anyway...actually i can sleep & eat well after putting $$ on HUAAN. :D
Haha. Ben and Sam.. Sorry that i thought Qantas is LCC. Haha, apple and durian how to compare?? Haha... Just read the online result, realise that Masteel, Ornasteel, SSteel and LSteel... STEELLLLLLLL!!!!! as long as share got this word steel moving up today.. haha.. HUAAN got no steel word so can not move.. Haha.. JOking here.. Hope host here don't mind. LSteel might come another FA play if he remain sustain his performance.. wow 500% jump in 1st Q result.. Seems FA stood at 8 based on forecast.. Uncle sam, any comment?? For Airasia definately is the good buy now.. RM0.50?? impossible.. If he hit RM0.85.. i will buy.. long term basis, definately is good share to invest rather FD... Remember Low Boon SIew, he invest in Langkahwi land and properties 50 years ago. See today now how? fatt tatt loh!!! how about airasia, u haven't put in money for invest already said good buy loh!!! just a matter of price demand from your heart.!! so your "eye got light" or not??
regret never buy YTLpower.. haha. His mother is keep collecting his own share.. wow.. RM1.00 hit by YTLWR not a big deal?? haha.. Seems sam sam water la!!!
I met my friend when i was in australia.. He is the share "TRADERS". He job is buy and sell share at the same day. So call contra kaki. Now he own 3 house in perth!!! walao eh, unbelievable..
for me,
99.99% of this group of TRADERS will sure make loss. Only 0.01% got chance to earn.. haha, treat share market like casino?? crazy!!
TA follower, any comment on this??
TRADERS? u heard b4? i'm 1st time.
for those invest in HUAAN and FA practicers. Well done!!
忍
忍？对就是它
买进之前 忍人所不能忍 才能低价买进
卖出之前 忍人所不能忍 才能高价卖出
买进之后 忍人所不能忍 才能长期获大利
股坛里有多少短线高手？至少我不是
买股是买公司的将来 业务，计划，发展都需要时间
故“忍”有百益而无一害
故快不如慢，狠不如稳，准不如忍 看似笨拙实属高明
do you understand his (cool eyes) proverbs? Kanasai, very chim..
99
I still Keeping Onastel..but seem onastel no move so much if compare to ssteel and kinstel..and other steel counters..but i knw it is solid FA counter with low pe counter compare to other counter.. just no much volume..
Anyone want comment or share anything about Onastel? Correct me if i was wrong..
Hi herbert..I like yr style now..i think my anti TA title shld pass it 2 u n let u be d Cheong moon yan ( Leader ) ha ha.. well done herbert . 4 yr Australian friend case..may be he is just like cold eyes said :- 每一个人都有自尊心、都爱面子，很少人肯认“输”。所以，谈到股票投资，个个都是赢 ! ka ka ka.. he owned 3 houses doesnt mean he made from contra gain !??
As 4 AA, whether it is good or bad..results speak all ..ok ? let Mr TIME be d judge..ok? dont act like Unker S lah.. he can give u lots of theories on FA.. he sound so expert in FA..but then look at all his previous picks ^V^besides china call warrants, d most classical one is GPACKET ! ka ka ka ... he called to buy @ 4.30+-..how much it is now ?? can some one tell me ? if he is so damn good in FA ( He claimed so ) ha ha.. but then ..why 90% of his FA picks gone holland ?? that's y he dare not to post say b4 hand picks anymore, he is now turn to TA play..n d result ? ha ha u can see yrself..needles to tell ^V^
Herbert , u shld know who i refer to ..dont u ?
U regretted not buying YTLpowerwr ? nothing to be regretted lah..this is normal..n mkt is always there mah !??
Yr question, y didnt i buy AA since i made up d call ?.. My shares holding already reached 15% of my total fund, as known to all , i will never put more than 15% of my total fund into share mkt for year 2008 !
reasons ?
1) This year not my year
2) Bull run started in early 2006, Hang Seng from 9,000 to 24,000 , STI 1,900 to 3,200.. d peak is over..is time 4 Mr Bear to take over
3) Political uncertainties
4) Subprime crisis reached its end ?? yet to know ^V^
5) High crude oil
Play small n play safe.. it is not time to sai lang now ^V^
Haha.. TA going chop off my head. Fortunate i'm not putting any personal info. here. haha.. Hi Uncle SAm, who r u talking about he turn to TA?? Benjamin?? Haha!!! Ka ka ka...!! Joke.
Hi AirAsia boh lat.. Hopefully can touch RM0.85.. Good buy.. No fund to buy in RM1.02..
SIFU SAM,
VIETNAM HIGH INFLATION N ECONOMIC
PROBLEM CAUSED STOCKS INVEST THERE
TO GO DOWN ESP SP SETIA,IOI PROP...
B CAUTION THE SITUATION THERE IS
SIMILAR TO THAILAND 10 YEARS AGO.
WHAT DO U THINK?????
BESIDE THAT I'M EAGERLY TO WATCH UR LATEST PORTFOLIO TO PROVE FA
ALSO CAN MAKE$$$$ IN BEAR MARKET.
ONCE AGAIN TIME TO SEPARATE FA N TA
每一个人都有自尊心、都爱面子，很少人肯认“输”。所以，谈到股票投资，个个都是赢家，实际上，人人都在“暗捶”。HAHAHA..
AT LEASE WE (FA) NO 暗捶.
PROVED IT !!!!
taozer.. Know y i didnt post up my portfolio nowadays ? 2 reason s
1) my portfolio is too small to see, i used to hv >400 to 500K shares in hand last year, in year 08, i hv cut down to only 140K+-...
2) as u know..i hv 2 lots of XXXXXX in my portfolio . hence cannot post it 4 TA buggers to view, i will only post it up once i hv dipose off my XXXX ^V^
2 know my portfolio is actually very simple..since i hv posted out every picks with cost of entry , lots purchase , take d latest portfolio from my blog ( http://samgang.blogspot.com/2008_02_01_archive.html ), do yr plus n minus ... there u get my portfolio.
Latest disposal
20 lots masteel @ avg 2.02 profit 11K+
New Purchases
Huaan X 100lots @ avg cost of 0.725
Bjcorplc x 50 @ avg cost of 0.525+-
XXXXX 2 lots @ X.75+-
30 lots of YTLpowerwr 0.65 + 0.10
Balance left behind from last year
10LOTS OF MASTEEL @cost of 1.47
20 lots of keladi @ cost of 0.23
check this out for reference:-
http://samgang.blogspot.com/2008_02_01_archive.html
taozer.. Know y i didnt post up my portfolio nowadays ? 2 reason s
1) my portfolio is too small to see, i used to hv >400 to 500K shares in hand last year, in year 08, i hv cut down to only 140K+-...
2) as u know..i hv 2 lots of XXXXXX in my portfolio . hence cannot post it 4 TA buggers to view, i will only post it up once i hv dipose off my XXXX ^V^
2 know my portfolio is actually very simple..since i hv posted out every picks with cost of entry , lots purchase , take d latest portfolio from my blog ( http://samgang.blogspot.com/2008_02_01_archive.html ), do yr plus n minus ... there u get my portfolio.
Latest disposal
20 lots masteel @ avg 2.02 profit 11K+
New Purchases
Huaan X 100lots @ avg cost of 0.725
Bjcorplc x 50 @ avg cost of 0.525+-
XXXXX 2 lots @ X.75+-
30 lots of YTLpowerwr 0.65 + 0.10
Balance left behind from last year
10LOTS OF MASTEEL @cost of 1.47
20 lots of keladi @ cost of 0.23
check this out for reference:-
http://samgang.blogspot.com/2008_02_01_archive.html
FYI, Masteel just announced it 1st qe with 185% jumped with eps of 13.11 as compared to previous qtr of 4.7cts..wowww...$$$$$$
13.11 x 4 = 52.44
PE 1.88/52.44 = 3.5 $$$$$
Ha ha CYT fatt tatt lollll, he still holding 50 lots @ cost of 0.78cts since year 2006.. see d beauty of FA ?
2 banana man Mr S+ Dalison , know what it means by " Mun Yan Kai She Ngoh Tok Yen = 万人皆lose 我独win)" ? perhaps u shld ask CYT how he feel now? ha ha he is now tasting d feel of " Mun Yan Kai She Ngoh Tok Yen = 万人皆lose 我独win !!
need a translator 4 u Mr S + Dalison ?
Dear Uncle Sam,
Do you think IPOWER also is one of the FA stock play?? Since he is making good profit and reflect good financial result. He also acquire IZZI NET (Mobif Subsidiary) share by 25% few months ago... So he enjoying 25% of PAT from IZZI. He also planning to transfer to main board in Q4. Can i compare it with Gpacket?
cool eyes:
【冷眼分享集2008】好股何以没人炒？
一般散户最常犯的毛病，是草率从事。
一听到“消息”，就不暇思索，马上出击。由於担心错过千载难逢的赚钱机会，他迫不及待地，把资本一股脑儿倾注在一只股票上，希望一击中的，赚个满堂红。
散户从来没有去想过，被炒家相中的，都是劣股。炒家对蓝筹股没兴趣.对蓝筹股，炒家是没有兴趣的。
炒家在炒作之前，多数会得到大股东的合作。蓝筹股的大股东通常不愿意跟他们合作。蓝筹股的大股东，也从来不去炒作自己的股票。
因为蓝筹股的大股东，都是正派商人，不会去炒高他们的股票。
无论股价涨得多高，他们都不会脱售他们的股票，以免失去控制权。
他们所争取的，是长期的增值，不是短期的利益。这是他们的事业。
事业是要交给下一代的，就好像丹斯里李莱生把吉隆甲洞交给三个儿子，丹斯里林梧桐把云顶交给儿子丹斯里林国泰，丹斯里骆文秀把东方实业交给女儿拿督骆清燕；丹斯里李深静的儿子拿督李耀祖、丹斯里杨忠礼的儿子丹斯里杨肃斌，肯定将继承IOI和杨忠礼机构。
这不但是他们个人的事业，也是家族的事业。他们怎会轻易脱售呢？既然不会脱售，何必去炒高股价？
况且只要业绩继续上升，股价必然随之，何必去炒？
每一个人做一件事，都有一个动机，既然炒高股价，也不会脱售股权，对他没有什么好处，他为什么要这样做？又为什么要跟炒家合作？所以，好股没人炒，因为没有这个必要。
被炒起的多数是劣股。劣股的大股东，没有把握靠改善业绩来使他们的股份（票）增值，只好靠“炒”来谋利。
人为的操纵，可以将股价推高，由于没有实际价值的支撑，在炒家撤退之后，股价必然回跌至未起前的水平，甚至更低。
被炒高的股票，在回跌至原来的低水平后，往往从此一蹶不振，再也无法回升至其巅峰价。
炒家不会去炒第二轮因为没有人会去炒第二轮。这是可以理解的。
如果重施故技，再炒一轮的话，所有在第一轮中被套牢的散户，都会乘机脱身，届时被套牢的可能是炒家。
炒家不会为散户制造脱身的机会。
散户资金被困，翻身遥遥无期，是散户的噩梦。那么，散户要怎样才能抗拒贪念，不落入炒股的圈套？
要做到这一点，散户必须牢牢地记住：财富不能无中生有。没有实际价值的东西，不可能长期存在。
没有价值的股票被炒高，好比是用肥皂水吹出来的泡泡儿。
泡泡儿在阳光中，色彩鲜艳，但是，正如“心经”中所说的“色即是空，空即是色”，彩色的后面，空无一物。
打工仔炒股70%赔本
写到这里，刚好读到南洋商报一则国际电讯：在过去两年中，中国股市火红，指数翻了数番，但打工仔炒股，70巴仙赔本。
大牛市中尚且赔本，则在熊市中岂不亏得更惨？
大马的散户也好不到那里去。散户人人希望买到有人炒作的股票。
但是，他们从来没有去计算在1千1百家上市公司中，有多少家被炒作？相信不到10家。
你能猜到被炒作股票的机会，跟中千字票不相上下。
你有那么幸运吗？绝大部份股票，都是因为业绩改善而上升的。
勤做功课赚钱机会高勤做功课，买进业绩标青的股票，长期持有，赚钱的机会比猜中那只股票会被炒起，高出百倍。
既然猜中的机会那么低，你又何必白费心机去猜呢？摒弃投机，买五星级股票，长期持有，绝不会错！
Hi ALL,
I like the way you all discussing AA here... really beneficial to newbie like me.
Yes, AA annouced its EPS ... at first, i think IF the EPS was increasing, then the price will pull up.... But now i have diffirent opinion after i reflash back everything.....
Normally before a quarter report is annouced, who will know the content in the first place?? YES, off course, the main shareholder or those AA management level ppl... right?? If they already know that AA getting such EPS and if they really think the EPS is good enough for them to buy in, they will start to buy in before the report annouce. So normally it will be reflected before the report annouce. SO the qtr report is not a NEWS, is an OLD NEWS....
I still look look & c c ....MUST be a GOOD negotiator....NOT my price>>NO BUY....BUTTT i will make sure myslef dun "an-chui" if the price is higher...wakakaka
Patience is virtue !!!!!
Haha.. I know who is Mr.S liao he Sxng!! haha.. He is really a opposition of uncle sam. he said uncle is Arrogant guy. Better dun make friend with him..haha.. U can find out in S blog. Who cares? Mr. Time and Result will tell... For me, proud and full of confident but yet humble yourself. This is one of good personality/ spiritual man!!
YTLPower warant sure will shoot up like hell once he start running..
SPIRITUAL REST STOP
The Right Path to Success
A young man was keen to find the path to success. He was told that a very wise man with the clue to success was living somewhere, and that many people who were coached by this wise man had eventually become successful. This excited him and he was very eager to look for this legendary wise man to learn him the path to success. Having gone through numerous hardship and setbacks, he finally found the wise man he was looking for.
The young man asked, "Wise Man, could you please tell me what to do, or what I should possess, in order to become successful?"
The wise man said, "You want to be successful? Then come with me."
After saying that, the wise man headed straight to the beach without heeding the response from the young man. In order to pursue success, the young man quickly followed the footsteps of the wise man. The wise man slowly led the young man into the sea. The further they went, the deeper was the sea, and the water now reached tghe level of their chest. Suddenly, the wise man pushed the young man's head into the water.
The young man struggled, but the wise man did not let go of his head. After almost a minute, the wise man eventually let go his hands. The young man immediately lifted his head out of the water and took a few deep breaths.
"Old man, are you trying to drown me?" the young man yelled.
The wise man replied, "If your desire for success is as strong as your desire to catch your breath just now, you are already on the path to success。"
Hi Sam,
Do you mind to add me into your mailing lists? my email address is danny.ldw@gmail.com. thank you for your kindness of sharing your wisdom in share market.
nice blog....
Post a Comment