Thursday, April 3, 2008

^V^ 299%returns in 26 months is no big deal ? >then what about >1500% returns in 16 years ? no big deal also !? ^V^






[youtube.com/watch?v=ybzLkCq9jYE&feature=related]
^V^

2 sour kid Mr Price chart ,

Sour kid said in his email:- making 3 digits return in percentage 4 past 2 years is no big deal , d question is :- what is yr annual return in percentage for next 20 years !? totally agreed on that !

Well, d 299% returns in my portfolio for past 26 months is no big deal at all ! yes no big deal at all , d bigger deal was :- know how much is my initial capital when i started to invest in KLSE way back 1992 ?

30K ! (those who with me in osk forum since 2000 should know it well, still remember our ytlwb @ 0.45, resorts @ 4.80 (b4 split), Liondiv @ 1.01 n YTL @3.50 in year 2001 ? all proven as per attachement , i didnt put it in my latest portfolio is bcos all d trades transacted in year 2001 to 2003 b4 blogging )

If I add them up with my latest 299% return , conservatively , i will say it should cross > 700% easily ! all these excluded gains that i made from UEM @ 0.70 , PBB @ 1.60 n YTL @ 1.20 in year 1998 ! > 1500% easily ^V^

I hv lost count on my profit from share mkt due to assets purchases n biz investment. hence .. u r right , made 3 digits gain in percentage is no big deal at all ! if u can achieve >1500% in 16 years like d stupid fundamentalist did , then only u r qualified to "shout n shoot ppl " in yr forum !

am i not correct mr sour ?

Thanks Mr price chart 4 giving me an excuse to show my proven records again..eommm... without yr useless TA, I will never know how great my FA is ^V^

Jgn marah yah ?

I will show u how i made another 200% in 3 years time , stay tune ok ?

2 Mr Tanhin from http://tanhin.blogspot.com,include u in my mailing list ? dont lah be so humble, i hv visited yr blog b4, to be frank..not bad, at least much better than those who called ppl to buy call warrants with all afterhand calls !

BTW< >

Bro, TL, still remember our Liondiv @1.01 in year 2003 ?

From: Samltt88
To: samgang@smartgroups.com
Sent: Friday, July 02, 2004 3:48 PM
Subject: [samgang] ^V^ The said stock is "LIONDIV @ 1.01+- , sapu as many as u can ^V^

^V^

I feel very sorry for those loyal non osk samgang members who keep asking me what is the said stock ? ok , the said stock is LIONDIV @1.01+-, sapu as many as u can $$$$$, read the below N dont
forget to buy in 2 stages

wrote: ^V^
Don't post it in both samgang web N osk forum b4 our collection completed, I will release it on 1/7/04 @ 2.45pm for those non osk members .

U guys take the move first, my avg buying cost 1.01 for 43 lots, if not bcos of the FOC meeting holding me, I would have sapu at least 100 lots , therefore, to be safe, collect half n save the other half for dip.

May god bless u ^V^

-- samltt@streamyx.com wrote:
> ^V^
>
> Now u see, u guys r my no 1 buddies who always stand
> beside me whether it is sunny day or thunder night ^V^
> I really can't stand the $$$$$$ of the below stock
> after seeing the market gone up bit by bit everyday,
> thus I decided to buy in some this morning , My avg cost for liondiv is around 1.01, I will definately go in again < 1.00 after the FOC meeting. Y now ?
> cos Liondiv is for mid n long term play , No big
> different whether 1.00 or 0.80 if u r
> damn sure it will go > 2.00 in future. my advice to
> u, buy half & save the other half
> for dip ^V^
>
> Mr Tinglek,we have never come so close to agreed on
> ONE SAME stock (LIONDIV) right ? besides all the
> goodies mentioned by Tinglek, I would like to stress
> 3 $$$$ here , Liondiv is assets play (NTA 1.92) &
> earning play (PE10+-) besides the explosive earning
> contributed by china market, the completed highway
> will definately boots its sales of liondiv
> in sg long, thus esmt EPS for the coming year should
> be around 0.15 at least , if liondiv sell another
> 50% of its stake in China brewer co , another 40Cts
> capital repayment expected as what they hv done couple
> months ago.
>
> The short fall of Liondiv
>
> 1) the Sars factor mentioned by Tinglek
>
> 2) The internal loan granting like what Bjtoto did
> to bjgroup ^V^
>
> The possibility of the above is quite unlikely (
> calculated risk )
>
> therefore @ 1.00+- for Liondiv is absolutely
> GOLDMINE $$$$$$
>
> As i said, u guys r my best buddies, I trust
> u ppl wont leak it out esp in samgang web to prevent
> TA fans n ssho88 from knowing it ^V^ as for others,
> I will disclose to them later, most likely on 1/7/04.
>
> Let sink n fly together ^V^
>
> ^V^
>
> Sense ppl viewed the same ^V^ bro Tinglek ^V^ Lion
> Div the jewel in deep ocean ^V^accumulated some
> last Friday @ 1.00+-, I really cant stand & wait for
> the FOC meeting ,thus ,I bought in some & will definately
> buy more on dip again.
>
>
>
> Take care
>
> SaMLTT88
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Chee TY
> Date: Tuesday, June 22, 2004 7:20 pm
> Subject: Fw: Uncle Sam latest move
>
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: Chee TY
> > To: limtt@streamyx.com
> > Sent: Monday, June 21, 2004 3:37 PM
> > Subject: Fw: Uncle Sam latest move
> >

> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: Teck Hock Chua
> > To: Mei Keang Yong ; ylseah ; yihjyh ; Yek Fu Wong
> ; Ying Fui Tsen
> > ; Manfred Tong ; David Rohan Thanapalan ; Sam
> Seong Thai ; Teik
> > Kiang Teoh ; Boon Tong Teo ; Michael Tee ; Fatt
> Seng Tay ; Tan,
> > Wooi Teong ; Kong Yu Tan ; Chio Hwi Siah ; Alvan
> Leong Yew Siah ;
> > Yeow Thong Seah ; Koon Khim Saw ; Vun That Ngui ;
> Kenzo Zui Lim Ng
> > ; Kean Hong Ng ; June Ng ; Teck Keong Low ;
> How-Ming Low ; Yoong
> > Hing Lim ; Terry Kee Khim Lim ; Sow Fong Lim ;
> Fong Lim ; Yau Tai
> > Lee ; Yau Loon Lee ; Tee Wee Lee ; Seng Yeow Lee ;
> Bryan Yong Yee
> > Ku ; Chun Chong Koay ; james_goh ; Kian Yean Ho ;
> James Goh ;
> > Adelin Khong Li Gan ; Nicheal Voon Tet Foo ; Keng
> Soon Ee ; Chris
> > Chu ; Kim Choy Chong ; Pak Moi Chin ; Futt Kien
> Chin ; Teng Yoon
> > Chee ; Chee Woei Cheah ; Kai Loy Chan ; Huan Chion
> Bong ; Seok
> > Kheng Aui ; Wai Hoong Au Yong ; Darren Au Yeong ;
> BC ANG ; Ah Gim
> > Ang ; ((( URE - AG )))
> > Sent: Monday, June 21, 2004 3:27 PM
> > Subject: Uncle Sam latest move
> >
> >
> > Dear all,
> >
> > Late Friday last week, uncle Sam has cleared most
> of his KIMBLE
> > (1.30+) and KEN (1.05+) and collected some PPB
> earlier. He is
> > also looking to accumulate more on > YTL-WB and LIONDIV.
> >
> > Rdgs,
> > Chua
> >
>

186 comments:

Samgoss said...

Thanks Mr price chart 4 giving me an excuse to show my proven records again..eommm... without yr useless TA, I will never know how great FA is ^V^

Jgn marah yah ?

Samgoss said...

Hi sour pricechart n all TA buggers out there, know which blue chips I am eyeing now ?

Waiting eargerly to buy them @ PE <10 , as i told u ??

U better not cry, u better not cry, u better not cry i am telling u why..coz santa BEAR is coming to town (KLSE real soon ).

Guys,XXXXX below 6 is most ideal buy , no hurry to go in now , wait for all d blue boys to come down below PE 10, then only u act on them.

wakaka said...

Dear bro Sam,
i'm ur silence reader..
interested to learn from you, very much appreciated if you could register me in your blog. my email -
ex10sion@gmail.com

Mohd Imran said...

sam..all ur post cannot be found in any finance textbook hehe.right now my class learning about stock characteristics.got so many sophisticated formulas hehe.whole class pening!

Benjamin said...

How wish I was borned earlier then can ride on the Lion with you and TL years back.

Nevertheless, its doesn't matter already because I'm part of samgang today. ^_^

StanleyInvestment said...

can Sam add me into your list as well?

stanleymyc@hotmail.com.

thanks for your guidance so far, i just learn from you since 2008 jan, hope it is not too late.

honming said...

Bro Sam,

pls add me in ...mak_my@yahoo.co.in

Honestly, more than 50% returns already make me happy like a monkey in an orchard !!

Samgoss said...

Hi all, feel relax with zero position in such a volatile mkt ? right ? ask yrself one very simple question, with d pending sub prime crisis + inflation threat to US economy, at current level of 12,600 for DOW, do u think she can goes further up ? chances for her to come down is greater than up, + d local political uncertainties in d coming months, I forsee there would be more downside room 4 KLSE, hence..keep yr cash 4 bottom fishing $$$$

Forget about 2nd liners, focus on blue chips, trust me, u will never regret for buying any blue chips with PE < 10 !

u will understand better what is PE < 10 actually stand for ^V^ Those who said low PE stand for low prospect will definitely keep their mouth shut after seeing u guys making huge $$$$$ for buying Low PE bluechips.

May I ask , if blue chips selling to u @ PE < 10, does it stand for low prospect ? for example, if MBB selling u at PE 8, r u saying she is hopeless n its future prospect is zero ? just like what happened in year 1998 , PBB selling @ PE < 5 , if it is really hopeless 4 having such a low PE , how come PBB able to benefit its share holder > 500% after that ?

Dont go by d book ! use yr brain n think.. am I not correct ? or u want me to name yr blog up 4 ppl to lough ? let me know okay ?

Unknown said...

$ifu $am
been a follower of your blog since mid last year. your views and insights have totally changed the way I invest. Thanks a lot for all you postings. Very much appreciated.

If you permit, I would be really thankful if you could add me in your new email list. Thank you very much.

angdea@gmail.com

TQ

kyteh said...

hehe i also wan in yr list
kwangyee81@yahoo.com
u r so cool.muaks

kyteh said...

hehe i also wan in yr list
kwangyee81@yahoo.com
u r so cool. muaks

Unknown said...

Hi Bro Sam,
I've been following your blog with great interest.

Appreciate if you could add me in your mailing list.

My email address : calvin9881@yahoo.com

Thank you.

BZ said...

Dear Sam,

U having an email list ka? I sure wanna be in your email list. Please add me aquadis1@yahoo.com

I sure am waiting waiting for those blue chips below 10. Please do let us know once u start to hantam those blue chips

Foong said...

Sifu Sam
I am following your blog since mid of last year. Really appreciate your willingness to share your FA knowledge. Hope that I could continue learn from you. Pls add me in your email list -> w_c_foong@yahoo.com

TQ very much.

lgcsdv said...

Bro Sam,
I would be most grateful if u can add me to your mailing list. Got burnt by TRANSMIL last yr.
workuk1@yahoo.com
Thanks

Unknown said...

Hi Sam,

welcome back n thks for the latest advices! thks too to TL & Ben also for your kind help. now preparing bullets to join u guys for the bear hunt!
Sam, wld appreciate if u cld add me to ur list, my email ceasar_nair@yahoo.com
Thks,
kcn

fangsiah ‎我 为 人人 @ 人人 为 我 said...

Guru Sam

A long story down the memory lane.......is still as refreshing as ever even read it for so many times.....

Just shout loud and high when you are ready to make the call.

Sifu Sam wai yan-yan, yan-yan wai Sifu Sam !

Take care and best of health.

Jeff said...

Dear Sam,

I am your silient follower and appreciate if you could add me in your new email list.

ongps28@tm.net.my

TQ

cken said...

$ifu $am & TL
Have follow your advise to retreat even earlier then you (b4 CNY)cause very kia si. Zero holding until now. Really feel very comfortable and sleep well every night since than. thanks
Currently loaded with plenty of bullet. Really looking forward for your next call.

cs said...

sifu sam,

pls add me to ur mailing list ok?

demetrio_4@hotmail.com

thanks.

山芭佬 said...

你好!SIFU SAM:
先请原谅我用中文来留言,因为我实在不会用英文.请原谅!

但幸好现在有网上的翻译字典,所以我才能从你的第一篇开始读到这最后一篇文章.(虽然有的翻译,我还是看到一头雾水!哈!)

感谢你的分享与教诲.令我觉得应该怎样去成为一个成功的投资者.就像你和冷眼前辈.

由于自己的学识水平的问题,(看不大懂那些年报)所以也曾经一度相信以图表来分析股票.因为毕竟看图对我来说,是绝对比看那密密麻麻的英文字好得多.哈!

话写得过多了!希望你能看得明白中文字.

期待你的分享!顺祝生活愉快!投资顺利!

如果你不介意,希望你也能将我的EMAIL加在你的LIST.谢谢!
stenny_lim@yahoo.com

Benjamin said...

Will go vacation for a week. Now has zero shareholding, can just enjoy the trip without worrying volatile market movement. ^_^

See you guys a week later.

Unknown said...

hi Sam

I really hope that my email will be added in your mailing list.

Thanks a lot

Unknown said...

Hi Sam

Appreciate if you can include me in your mailing list and nice to learn from you.

Thanks a lot

Steward.teh@gmail.com

wakaka said...

Dear SAM,
just to inform u, that i got ur first email.. thanks again for sharing..

Unknown said...

hi Sifu, I am also your follower. please add my email also . thank you.

goognio@gmail.com

csk said...

Sifu Sam,

I've been a follower of your blog since mid last, very much appreciated if you could add me into your list as well. My email: cs_kwang@hotmail.com

Timo K said...

Sam,
as a new buddy in the share market, i have some questions here..Ppl like to use the fundamental of a company to invest,and aim for long term returns! Recently, I have attended a talk abt the chart formation! How do u think, which one is the best way to decide our investment strategy?
I think US economy is moving either sideway or down..No hope to US..hehe..

Ree said...

sifu sam,

Have been following your blog for the last 1 year.
pls add me to ur mailing list ok?

ree73@yahoo.com

thanks.

Samgoss said...

^V^

Hello Bro Ben ,


never thought that..u also monitoring his blog ah ? FYI, it has been long time i didnt read his blog liao..ha ha tak lain tak bukan..i dont see him making any calls at all..bottom line..he has NO proven track records !. if i want to read theories, i can get it from d adge , star or others.. ngam poh ?

FYI, he is d one whose gave negative comment on my suria @ 1.40 last year b4 she shot up to >2.50 ! ha ha.. see ? u should know y now ^V^



Told u ppl many times, trust nobody but their proven end results ! but make sure they call b4 hand ! okay ?

Who cares he is char kuey Teow ben or Pork seller TL ? as long as he has say b4 hand track records, follow !

Big talker can always give u theories , in pratical is totally different !

Cantonese saying :_

Kong chow tin ha mo tik, choe chow yau sum mo lik ! means he is unbeatable in talk, when u ask him do it in pratical..ha ha nothing deliver !

Happy holiday bro ^V^

Samgoss said...

你好!SIFU SAM:
先请原谅我用中文来留言,因为我实在不会用英文.请原谅!

但幸好现在有网上的翻译字典,所以我才能从你的第一篇开始读到这最后一篇文章.(虽然有的翻译,我还是看到一头雾水!哈!)

Ha ha.. bro san pa lau.. ni 不会用英文? so humble ah ? i hv seen yr blog posting in english ley..jgn tipu gua lah..fyi.. mine is rojak english, therefore ni 看到一头雾水 ! ha ha..sori ah ^V^

感谢你的分享与教诲.令我觉得应该怎样去成为一个成功的投资者.就像你和冷眼前辈.

由于自己的学识水平的问题,(看不大懂那些年报)所以也曾经一度相信以图表来分析股票.因为毕竟看图对我来说,是绝对比看那密密麻麻的英文字好得多.哈!

话写得过多了!希望你能看得明白中文字.

Of course i understand chinese, i know how to read n write in english but cant post chinese in my blog cos i dont know pin yin at all.

TA is simple than FA ? sorry to say, i dont use TA at all.. what I know is:- FA is d only method for u to make $$$ from shares mkt ! as for TA ? ha ha like what TL said :_ TA is kiss of death ^V^


期待你的分享!顺祝生活愉快!投资顺利!

如果你不介意,希望你也能将我的EMAIL加在你的LIST.谢谢!
stenny_lim@yahoo.com


add u in my list ? ha ha... of course i dont mind, but dont call me sifu..ok ? we r d same ^V^ coz yr blog is doing not bad also.

山芭佬 said...

谢谢你的特别回复.哈!让我有点受宠若惊.

也谢谢你对我的部落的赞赏.哈!这更另我吃惊.(因为你竟然到过我的部落!)

我一向都不会谦虚啦!不会英文就是不会.记忆中我的部落并没有英文的文章.(除了那些COPY & PASTE的年度报告.)

TA一般我只拿来做投机.哈!过过日子.

我不会像你们这样PANAI的去找寻黑马.所以我只能找一只公认的好股做我的主力.(YTLPOWR)不知你对这股又有什么看法?

但无论你怎么看,我想我也不会将他卖出.哈!但我还是希望你能对我这老山芭这主力给点评语.

谢谢!

祝生活愉快!投资顺利!

P/S:最希望收到你的EMAIL是教我怎么去用FA去研究一家公司,如何去判断这家公司的潜能.因为我想尝试自己去找寻一只好股.(当然!如果是中文更好!哈!英文嘛..我相信网络字典应该可以帮我翻译的,哈!)

JB119 said...

Sam,

Can you please include me as well. Thanks a million. :-)

joeblack119@gmail.com

JB119 said...

Sam,

Can you please include me on the list as well? Thanks a million. :-)

joeblack119@gmail.com

Unknown said...

Mind to add me into your list as well?

justaintme@gmail.com

Newbie in investment, appreciate your guidance.

Benjamin said...

Bro Sam, I am not monitoring his blog lar. Just happen to see this post while surfing internet.

^_^

118 said...

$ifu $am, realised i didn't type in my email address when asking u 2add me in ur list.
: apchan70@gmail.com
Watched Indian Open Final ? only 1 word 2 describe: "Sien"!

Samgoss said...

2 山芭lau, Ytlpower ? of course it is a FA good stock , its eps hanging around 20+cts 4 past 3 years, @2.40+, its PE trading At 13+ , not too high but not too cheap also, d short fall of this stock :- its base is too huge, not easy to move.. 4 a blue chip like YTLpower, buying < 2.00 is a safe bet .. but u need to be patient , cos this elephant is really "slow moving".

Ben.. observe yrself , this guy is trying to search 4 "perfection ", he is searching 4 "low PE, good cash flow, no gearing , high NTA, good management with good future earning prospect ..ha ha do u know he is actually living in a fantasy world !?? wake up pls wake up ! may i ask , u found any so far ?

anyway... this fantasy stock is getting closer n closer. another 200 points down, we will be seeing all these kap na dancing here n there asking "catch me, catch me if u can " !

Guys, make sure u catch d right kap na with blue n cheap (bluechip) chop behind their back..ok ?

Normally, 2nd Qtr is not a buy qtr , more shit figures would be floated up by DOW in d coming months + d fight btwn AAB n TDM .. I am very sure d fantasy kap na stocks r not too far away from us, get ready with yr hook n net for d catch ^V^

herbert said...

Dear Uncle Sam,

I'm still using my old email (Besta) in order to post comment here. So I'm afraid that you will not email me anything. Hopefully u will not miss out me. (herbertyeo@yahoo.com)

Unknown said...

Hi Sam,

I've been constantly following your blog since last year. Please add me into your list as well.
My email is ngsl6892.yahoo.com

Thank you!

CH Tan said...

Dear Sam

Finding your 天时,地利,人和and
explanation of PE very enlightening or 当头棒喝!Thinking of introducing the idea to my Mandarin readers and Cari 佳礼理财网站 http://chinese2.cari.com.my/myforum/forumdisplay.php?fid=401.

As I have read thru your writing, whatever I am going to pen will be very much influenced by you/your wordings, thus I cannot claim credit as the first person to come out with this.

I seek your permission to allow me to introduce the ideas in Mandarin for the benefits of many newbies out there.

I am willing to send my articles to you for clarity and rephrasing before publish.

tanhin

shany said...

Hi Sam,
I have been follow ur blog since last year n great to learn from u.

Could u pls add me to ur mailing list?? (shannedy@gmail.com)

Many many thanks..

Anonymous said...

Sam,
跟看你的很久了,还没买,手上只有BJTOTO (很久了)。 有好料, 记得告知我 add me : leeatthomas (at) hotmail com

不要只记得赚钱,也要保健保健下,有空来坐坐 www.enzymo.wordpress.com
谢啦

Samgoss said...

Dear Tanhin..i dont mind that ..u can go ahead..but pls dont post my pick on yr blog..ok ?

U must highlight there:- no contra n must hv holding power if they wanna to follow my method.

as it can be seen, KLSe is very much lacking of 天时n人和 , if u buy now , u need to hold 4 at least few months n also d profit u make is very minimum in down trend mkt (cantonese saying ; if u win, u win a sweet but if u lose u lose a factory ).

Always remember these 2 >> sail with d wind n flow with d water , where there r 天时n人和 around, buying 地利 (FA) stock is like pushing yr boat with support of water from behind , this is what chinese called 顺水推舟 ^V^

When mkt is on d way down, where we cant find any 天时n人和, if u jump n buy , u r actually praticing 逆水推舟 even stocks that u bought full of 地利!


地利stocks r meant for long term play.. thru my experience, though u will still make $$$ from 地利 stocks in long term, but.. y should we need to absorb d holding cost ? n also d opportunity cost ? sell first n buy back later ! though we dont know where is d bottom but we know very well that we can buy back at much cheaper price in bearish mkt ^V^

Still d same , no purchases ever since i sold off most of my shares in month of Feb.

Still waiting eargerly 4 all d blue boys ^V^

shany said...

Sam,
Thousand thanks for adding me to ur blog n get ur first email.
Now I'm part of samgang today.

Hopefully will get another advice n learn much more from u.

Thanks again for sharing...

"AMITHABA"

Samgoss said...

yah b4 i forget mr Tanhin, dont compare me with 冷眼前辈, he is a real fundamentalist ! his style is like warren buffet"hold n keep ", to be frank, I am not even 1/2 of 冷眼前辈.

Mine is more towards cycle play (Time frame 4 bull n bear mkt = 18 months+-) , we hv one thing in common, pick FA stock based on FA not TA !

2 robin,

robin: samgross 才是真正的勇士,冷眼每次都是马后炮。

FYI, 冷眼did posted some call b4 hand stocks in his forum, he is really good, most important , he teach ppl d right method of finding FA stock.

冷眼 deserved some respect from us ^V^

Newbie said...

Sifu sam,

i'm just a novice in the share mkt and hope to learn from you more can you pls add me into yr list.

my email id : newbiefatt88@yahoo.com

Thanks a million.

Ivan said...

Sifu Sam ,

Many thanks for adding me in your email listing. May goodluck and happiness always follow you.

Unknown said...

Bro Sam, wahlau i thought you would become inactive after Feb08. How come
so fast can not tahan already?
being a bit kiasu, can add me in ur list??? fafollower@gmail.com
thousand thanks.
BTW, i m reading a book written by jim roger on china market and according to him, huge fortune or
in your word kapna are there...i think now even sochai also know china's potential but what's your take on china as i m planning to shift some of my $ to HK/China.

richloo said...

Sifu sam, I have been following your blog since last December and learn a lot about FA. Can add me to your list???

lktatt@gmail.com

Thanks.

hamim said...

Sifu Sam,
I have been a follower of your blog since middle of last year.
Please include me in your mailing list....my email is hamimjj@yahoo.com
Thanks

ZeRoNe said...

Hi Sam,
Pls add me to your list too.
san.hwong@gmail.com

I'd read one of 冷眼前辈's book. He's good.

Timo K said...

wah...tis forum become active again!Good..Tats good!
Sam,wats the website for 冷眼 blog? I wish to have a look also!
Please add me to your blog as well at soonhuat_2001@yahoo.co.uk ..Thanks..

freshie said...

hi Bro Sam, freshie here. Could you pls add me in your mailing list? Thank You
seagull3176@yahoo.com

BHK said...

Dear SAM,

Would like to learn more from your FA analysis. Appreciate if you can include me in your distribution list.
my email: bhk5945@yahoo.com

Thanks,
Regards, BHK.

118 said...

$ifu $am, mail received, many thanks.
Holding zero share in hand now feel like being "Jobless"lah, no income fr KLSE. ha...ha
Waiting desperately 4 Mr BEAR 2 appear so tat we could go 4 "hunting" again!

Samgoss said...

From one of my fan's email :-

Bro Sam,

Ya am missing all the action or no-action lately due to busy work lah
Anyway just reading your blog.... and notice a newbiefatt88 request to join samgang
FYI he's the same newbie in seng's fusioninvestor blog ... we (me & a few bloggers/readers) don't trust these two guys and their "after-hand" calls

BTW please do add me to your email list. Thanking you again.

***

Really ? thanks 4 yr alert..anyway, samgang got nothing to do with fushion blog, whether they r tai chek kong with all d call after hand stories or not..non of my biz ^V^

sooner or later , they will realise who is actually telling lie , say after hand calls will not benefit their empty pocket at all ! if they think by giving all the say after hand calls will make them look great ..well, noone can stop them ^V^

I trust u newbie , pls dont leak my pick out to other blog..ok ? let make $$$$ diam diam ok ?

Ha ha.. so confident on my pick ah ? jangan jangan anda dibawa oleh uncle sam ke tempat yg digelar "HOLLAND" ^V^

acdc said...

Hi Bro Sam,
I've been silently following your blog for the past few months and i really like your style. I have my bullets ready and hope you can help me recover my losses from these few years of bad investments.

Appreciate if you could add me in your mailing list.

My email address : ac99sb@yahoo.com

Thanks!

hwh1 said...

Hi Sam,
Can you add me to your mailing list - hwh1@yahoo.co.uk.

Thanks
Mac

Teo said...

Hi Sam,
Pls add me to your list.
teopklow@yahoo.com

i am your silent follower.

Thank you for your sharing.

tey said...

Sifu Sam

I am your silent reader for more than a year, pls include me in your mailing list. my e-mail add is lenny_tey@yahoo.com

Thank you

Aus2070 said...

Your advices are truly impressive.

Please add me to your mailing list:

aus2070@gmail.com

Unknown said...

Sifu you change emails? Hope you still remember me! Jason... :)
beckham_scud7@yahoo.com
^88^

Joe8 said...

Dear SAM,

Yes!!! SAM, U r back!!!
Hope to learn more from your FA analysis. Appreciate if you can include me in your distribution list.
my email: choonliang@hotmail.com

Joe8 said...

Dear SAM,

Yes!!! SAM, U r back!!!
Hope to learn more from your FA analysis. Appreciate if you can include me in your distribution list.
my email: choonliang@hotmail.com

Thx a lot!!

Unknown said...

Dear uncle Sam,
interested to learn from you, very much appreciated if you could register me in your blog. my email -
lowcheechoong@hotmail.com

Newbie said...

Dear Sifu Sam,

First and foremost thank you very much for adding me into yr mailing list. You're a great FA person that's no doubt about it and you have proven your track records too and i'm keen to learn from you. I'm a gentleman and will keep my words that i'll not leak out for whichever counters you shared with all of us. And have faith in you to make money together.

Last of all you are a very kind and unslefish person indeed. And left very few person like yourself in this world.

Thank you for sharing.

Best regards,
newbie

taozer said...

SIFU SAM,
PLEASE CAN U ADD ME TO UR MAILING LIST???
I'M A LITTLE KIASU & KIASI N MAKE
SURE MY
EMAIL ADDS:
taozer878@yahoo.com
IS ADDED TO UR LIST.
MILLION THANKS....

jcvee said...

uncle Sam
thank you for your wisdom and imparting your extensive knowledge so freely.
please count me in in your email list :
jcveera@yahoo.com

thanks and best wishes

CH Tan said...

Dear Sam

Thanks for your further explanation. I need to read thru carefully and write/interpret as precisely as possible what you have highlighted all this while.

1) NO CONTRA
2) MUST HAVE HOLDING POWER 要有持票能力。
3) DON'T POST YOUR PICK

tanhin

Samgoss said...

Thanks Tanhin n newbie.

I will post my pick out after our collection completed ^V^

Btw, I doubt that we can buy XXXXX @ < 6.00 , i would say d chances is 50/50, as for 6.50+-, i think it is reachable , no matter how much u bought, start from 7.30 to 6.50, if u hv patient n holding power, $$$$ is definitely there 4 u , my TP is still d same, below 6.00 from now till mid of 3 Qtr 08 , I might change my TP to > 6.00 towards d end of Sep 08 ^V^

Know y we should buy at any price below 7.00 by Sep 08 ? i hv my own reasons 4 that, anyway..dont worry, will email u guys if there any purchases done by me.

In d same time, i am also looking at XXXXX ( mini blue chip ) at anything below 1.10 , my first choice is still XXXXXX below 6.00.

2 make money from KLSE is not that difficult if u r playing FA n know when to get out n buy back later.

I will chop my head off if u dont make any $$$$ from XXXXbelow 6.00 in 12 months time !!! mark it down n prove me wrong by end of sep 09.

If u r loaded with plenty of bullets , take my advice , focus on Bluechip ONLY ! wait for them to come down to PE < 10 n then buy on dip ! 200% returns in 3 years time is not a dream !

Why bluechips n not 2nd liners ? which counters will take d lead first once mkt rebound !? if u doubt , observe yrself ^V^

Of course my mom is female, know it doesnt mean u know how to put it in pratical ! this is d most difficult part of shares investment, u know very well by buying XXXXX < 6.00 is definitely a sure win in long term BUT what if she stay > 6.00 n reluctant to come down any further ? that's y i said, buy @ anything < 7.00 by sep 08 if we can get it < 6.00.

Always remember this, noone can catch d bottom, only sinka TA bloggers claiming they know how to time d bottom, ha ha..really ? any proven say b4 hand records ? as far as i know :- i see NONE from them !

some guide 4 u guys, thru out my experience :-

Buy bluechips during end of bear n begining of bull.

buy 2nd liners n warrants during mid of bull .

SELL, MUST SELL all yr warrants during end of bull ! d more u hold d more u die !

Buy NO warrant n call warrant when its expiry date is near !

if u doubt on d above , pay some tution fees to find out yrself whether uncle sam is talking nonsense or not !?

^V^

SiLv3sTeR said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Calvin said...

Hi sifu sam,

Really appreciate on your selfless sharing about your experience in share market even tho you have no obligation to do that.

I only came across your blog around nov last year and even tho I didnt make much money in the end, I at least learned the FA way from you, and I can now start reading some fa investment book while waiting for opportunity.

Once again really thank you for your sharing and hope you can add me to your mailing list as well
chok0879@gmail.com

-calvin

edge2002 said...

bro sam
how come I did not receive a single email from you before ar?
I suppose I post my email address few times ardy woh
jc2002@gmail.com

many thanks

Unknown said...

Genting i presume? lol! Anyway sifu, i have send you a few emails but didn't get any reply from you. Busy with work ka? How's Chris? Send my regards to her ya! :)

Evergreen said...

Uncle Sam,

Would like to learn more from you.
Please add me to your list too.
My email: ym6060@yahoo.com

Thank you very much.

Unknown said...

Hi Sifu Sam, I have been following your blog since one year back. Along the way made some money thanks to your help. Hope your blog will be as active as previous times.

Please add me in your mailing list. My e-mail address is theazzurri@gmail.com

Thanks Sifu.

Unknown said...

Hi Sifu Sam, I have been following your blog since one year back. Along the way made some money thanks to your help.

Please add me in your mailing. My e-mail address is theazzurri@gmail.com

Thanks Sifu.

Felix Ooi said...

Hi Sam

Those were the good old days huh.

My first experience with you was when you call for YTL-WB@0.63. Then Liondiv and end of 2004 IJM-wb. Some bad ones too Mieco-wa.
Overall make tonnes from IJM-wb.

AhLee8888 said...

hi sam,

i pay tuition fees liao la... via google-wa. aiiyah, i but 20lots@0.0925 now worth RM200....can show u if don't believe. *cry *cry ah! Now throw also no point leh. I also holding other counter.. all making lost.

wish i come across your blog sooner leh. Not i got lot of $$$, around 15k i put in to invest since end of last year. Use to follow TA blog and calls( i dunwan to name la, think also i blood boil).. all i can say.. Chee Mah Kan!!!..... make me loose 60% liao of investment.

They never show hand one... tell to buy, but never tell to sell. Clever clever sell sell liao... then only say.. when u never sell. Somemore hor can brag say make $$$ for the call liao. CHEH!!!!

I go thru your blog samgoss, i think u ok guy-lah, i don't know how to read chinese.. kung chew hakka ngin....but from the way you do stock analysis, you got style and logic la and not simply say things. Hence, I make up my mind to follow you and also read up on FA.

If you honest, and bring me to Holland to eat fan shu.. also i don't mind because.. the logic there mah. I accept it. Not everyone can be right all the time mah.. if everyone right.. i think no point to live liao.

If u can be so kind.. hope u give me some pointers and tipsy.

/ahlee

adwin said...

$ifu $am

Feel very happy and a million THANK for ur kindness in sharing. With ur proven past record i will follow ur every step.

Thank you!!

Voyager8 said...

I remember that 冷眼 was among the pioneer person who called for Liondiv when it was still an uncovered gem few years ago. He has some excellent tracked record and deserve the respect. So do uncle Sam.

Samgoss said...

^V^

2 Mr XXXXX

To be frank, I hv no personal conflict with blogger seng even though he accused me for some wrong doing, I believe someone out there trying to put up a fire for us to fight..sorry kid, i will never fall into yr trap !

2 Mr AH

Ha ha.. u r really a straight forward guy , dont blame ppl but u yrself, u must check out his track records first mah ?? if one tom n harry come to u n ask u to follow his pick ..will u jump in ? cakap semua orang tahu..bila suruh buat ?? ha ha u see what u see ^V^

Dear Ah, broken english is ok but dont sampai broken akal like d one u follow previously !? further more, u r chinese mah.. it is no a shame for writing broken english unless u tell me u r mat salleh lar ! get what i mean ?

if u hv japanese friend, try to ask them to pronounce "fact" or " Fax".. 9 out of 10 will come out with d word "FUCK", no joke..it is truth. who dare to say Japanese is stupid ? in short, language is not d key factor for success ! d key factor is "Brain play " ^V^


No matter what ,fact is still a fact , those who like to show off with his call after hand picks is actually an act of kid, worse still with all d "china call warrants" picks ! n still he tebal muka n said " one need to know it is for trading play not 4 buy n hold ! i hv disposed them off already with some little profit " did u see he posted his sell calls b4 his china dolls slump ? did u ?..see mr Ah ? Jangan jangan we r referring to d same person. ha ha

###

Mr XXXXXX wrote:

hahaha didn't know bro sam would publish my comments

anyway see below on more lousy news from usa, although Washington Mutual gets $7B to mitigate subprime woes. more bears coming eh?

Washington Mutual Gets $7 Billion From TPG-Led Group (Update1) By Elizabeth Hester and David Mildenberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a7M_ER.SKD9E&refer=home

IMF Says Financial, Economic Losses May Swell to $945 Billion By Christopher Swann
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aBCSyLv7HQmU&refer=home

Pending Home Resales in U.S. Fall More Than Forecast (Update1) By Bob Willis
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=azIZxzzEfQA4&refer=home

Greenspan Says U.S. Home Prices May Stabilize in 2008 (Update2) By Scott Lanman and Lily Nonomiya
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aK6fhJY95tPg&refer=home

Joe8 said...

Dear Sifu SAM:

Yeah, Mail received!!Millions thx for adding me into samgang!!

Thanks again for sharing...

tan81 said...

Uncle sam, i still haven't received your email.May you please add me into your list. I have left a comment in your article,dated 31 March.Maybe you didn't see it.

I visit here through doctor Tanhin blog. Thanks for your sharing.

berubahuntukmalaysia said...

Sifu Jason here. Did you get the email i send to you boh? How come no reply liow? You have changed your email?

csk said...

Uncle Sam,

It's great to hear from you. Already received your 1st email. Thank you so much.


csk.

tan81 said...

Uncle Sam, forgot to leave my email and blog here.

Please add me, learning.ydy@gmail.com.

my blog is http://tan81.blogspot.com/

Unknown said...

Dear Bro Sam and gang,
I am long follower of your blog and I am very interested joining your mailing list. Can you please add me into your list? Thank you in advance!

garrychua said...

Hi Sam,

Please include me in your mailing list. Thanks

garrychuatc@yahoo.co.uk

Samgoss said...

Wooww tan81..yr blog picture so seducing ah ? norse bleeding liao.. ha ha

Doctor tan recommended my blog 2 u ? aiyahhh..doc..I am not as good as u thought lar.. our bro TL n Ben also doing not bad.. on n off..pls post them some question..ok ?

Guys.. mkt up 3 points today despite d regional mkt fall.. r we decouple from them ? NO ! we r not ! when regional mkt gone up d other days , we still stood like a rock over here ! dont be misleaded by last min push.. artificial only ! look at d overall mkt volume..damn bloody thin ! how to go up ?

I heard some "shocking news " is going to be announced on this coming 14 april by PKR, dont know how reliable it is..no hurry to buy at this moment, let wait n see .

DOW must crash down kow kow inorder 4 xxxxx to fall < 6.00 !otherwise , i dont think we can buy it below 6 ! coz d lowest for XXXX in past 3 years was around 6.50 n that also intraday low.

nothing we can do except wait 4 d durians fall ^V^

e.b said...

same here. no email received. Perhaps im not qualified to become a member of samgang, i guess. \o/

cheers~

cken said...

Sam
Noticed that u have more and more fans. Compared to last round of adding mail list request somewhere on November 2007, the number who request to be add was more then double now. Congraturation.
Also, thanks for adding me.

Samgoss said...

aiyahh e.b.. how to email 2 u without yr email add ? u think i am david coperfield ah ?

2 ckan.. more n more ? ha ha..d extra one must be from those TA buggers lah..who else ? I know there r some TA fellows in my mailing list..know y I let them in ?

coz i want to make them 2 go thru all d trouble to create a blog b4 they can request for mailing inclusion, u can cheat me but u cant cheat yrself.. u hv endorsed d beauty of FA , u hv admitted FA is better than TA by requesting 4 d mailing inclusion. btw, thanks for going all d trouble to creat a blog 4 mailing inclusion my dear TA buggers ^V^ well done dudes !

Doctor Tanhin..need some treatment from u lah.. am I sick ? or mentally sick ? OMG..pls help me or else i need to go to tambun alreadyyyyyy ^V^

ves said...

Uncle Sam,

Very much appreciated if u could add me in your mailing list. Thanks.

chunciekteh@yahoo.com

Tan said...

Hello, trying to post

Tan said...

Hi Sam,
I'm new to this blogging stuff. Not sure if I'm getting thru. Please add me to your email list.
Thanks

email: tantch888@gmail.com

e.b said...

haha.. i did put my email address laa... maybe u din notice cuz it's on the other post. anyhow my email is bstan_erica@yahoo.com

Thanks again sifu sam n let's make some cold hard $$$$ together. \o/

Unknown said...

Dear Sam,
I've been following ur blog since last year.

Could u pls add me to ur mailing list? (chensd2004@hotmail.com)

Million TQ

pharmalogik said...

bro sam, am i in your mailing list? Tq. Pls include me, pharmalogik@gmail.com...

yueer888 said...

Sifu Sam

Thank you very much for sharing your knowledge, experiences, tips, photos ....with us. I have enjoyed myself reading your blog just like many of your fans do.

I would not want to miss out on your future calls on XXXXXX or XXXX etc etc. Please add me to your mailing list. My email add: desaria03@yahoo.com.

Thanks a million.

AhLee8888 said...

Mr SamG,

Dunno why my name come out as "Ah".. hahahaha... suppose to be Ah Lee, now sound like AH. :)

I just your ordinary Hakka Chinaman la.....trying to earn some decent side $$$ ler.

China Doll ka.. ya.. one time i also go along "his" call la and get bakar like loti-bakar ah. I still remember i buy BOC-C1@0.2951 for 19k lots. i loose almost 2k ah.. after i let go at 0.2. Lucky-ah, not mean i eat fan-shu in Holland liao. KNNCB!!!

Should be same person(s) we talking about. Not i no do my homework, but their cerita very very syok and nice to read one woh. My grandmother also believe ah (God bless her soul!) the way the cerita is written but fact is fact. Tale is tale. Now I know, no show hand equal block buster wayang -ah!

Ya, I am "proud" to be Malaysian ah.. only Malaysian Boleh.... ya ya ya ya... (who else go think do experiment with loti canai, gasing, etc etc) at one point in space. Lucky tak jadi.. ah. Ah yes, Malaysia Boleh!!!! So i really really no shame to be one.

Yalah, I think i need to have brain examine la. Orang baru mah, so see quick way to make $$$, sure sapu one. I think half the world also like this hor... dun u agree??? But I alwiz believe God got eyes one, if you share, God also share with u!

I dun blame them la... it is my choice to follow and it was bad decision. So bear with my bitching loh. I just piss off at loosing $$$ coz I feel like i kena played!

Now i see FA as a good technique to use. Strong Fundamental... is less headache and keng keng cheong cheong.. coz. you know.. somehow and sometime.. later even if your analysis is off it will rebound.

/ahlee8888

thebigbang said...

hi Sam,

very much appreciate it if u could add me in your mailing list.

flairline@gmail.com

thx and take care

thebigbang

Freak said...

Hi Bro Sam,

I have been following your blog since last year and I am keen to join as samgang list.

al3x_tan@yahoo.com

Thanks.

jk said...

Hi Mr Sam,

I am newbie in share market... Would appreciate you include me in your list.

My email add: jerrykwc@hotmail.com

TQ

jk said...

Dear Mr Sam,

I am your long-time follower. Please include me as one of your list. My email add: jerrykwc@hotmail.com

TQ
JK

Anonymous said...

hi sifu, pls add me too...
my mail is stefan_soh@yahoo.com...

millions of thanks!!!

tan81 said...

Thanks, Uncle SAM. I got your email already.You are right,there are a lots of TA guys follow u.No doubts!
i always click on them,to find more blogs to visit.
Even here has long lists,but doesn't see many people have a nice blog like doctor and jungle man,of coz includes ur blog.
FA people will not lazy like that and just hope the durians fall from tree.
Just like u,very patient to reply everyone,this is really make me touching and feels the sincerity of sharing. Those guys who are not understanding of passions in investment will never felt and know.

u definately got seduced by SHE, see "nose" .

Wooww tan81..yr blog picture so seducing ah ? norse bleeding liao.. ha ha

Unknown said...

Hi Sam,
This is email address - waihming@gmail.com.

I missed my email address too in my last posting. Please add me okay.

-Ming-

Unknown said...

Dear SAM,

Followed ur forum since late 2007. Learned from u to minimize the share: cash position around early 2008 to approx 20:80. That saved a lot of my capital.

Can you add me to your mailing list:

neowing9090@gmail.com

SiLv3sTeR said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
hwh1 said...

Me too. I have left my name last one or two weeks but did not get any email from you. Mind to add me again? I want to learn from you sifu.



hwh1@yahoo.co.uk

adwin said...

Wah tan81 blog is in chinese.

Beside from my own name and some simple chinese character. They know me I x know them

Ha.....

Benjamin said...

More social unrest is on its way!!

I went to Japanese buffet chain "OISHI" and notice that ppl are willing to spend money to "waste" food (including myself, I guess).

People just take food off the shelf even though knowing they are not able to consume that much. Greediness has created this mentality that "take as much as you can just for the sake of not wasting your own money" but in fact it waste global resources.

As long as this mentality exist, commodity rally will not end unless some events happen which is significant enough to correct this abnormal mentality.

One thing is for sure, the growing social unrest in poverty countries (especially those primary food prodcution countries) will disrupt the self evolving of global food supply chain system. More prohibition is expecting to be imposed on the exporting of scarce resources.

I'm still holding the view that recession MUST come. It shouldn't take too long to wait for it to come.

Unknown said...

Dear Sifu Sam
I am one of your faithful follower. Really appreciate your kindness to share your FA knowledge. Hope that I could continue learn from you. Pls add me in your email list
( nmchoong@gmail.com )

Samgoss said...

2 those TA sinkas. Wake up wake up pls !TA analyst badly burnt in d recent slump of SSEX! another proof of TA failure, read yrself >>>

2 those who dont understand chinese, in short they said almost all d TA analyst called to long SSEX n predicted there would be more upside 4 ssex to rally till 7,400, ended up ? what is ssex todate ? Less than 3,400 ! ha ha as i said, if TA is workable, like cantonese saying, mother pig also can climb up to d top of d tree !


面对现在的股市 分析师称也看不懂2008年04月10日 07:20中国证券报【大 中 小】 【打印】“新一轮的调整范围将在3000点—4000点之间。”这是证券分析师小李对市场的最新看法。而在两个多月前,他的判断是,上证综指的极限波动区间在4300点―7300点之间。

落差如此巨大,深度套牢的股民揶揄道:“沪综指很绿很暴跌,分析师很傻很天真!”

听了这样的说法,已有四年证券分析经验的小李有一丝尴尬,但他强调,这种情况是市场的普遍现象——从年初各大机构的策略报告来看,几乎没有一家券商看到了4000点以下,但在四月初,上证综指却跌至了3271点。

对于股民的揶揄,小李表示并不会感到十分“上火”。“对于入行不久的分析师来说,可能会为此感到焦虑,觉得对不起投资者。但事实上,这样的事情并非首次发生。我做分析师的几年中,几乎每年都会发生。”不过,他的语速明显加快,声音提高了几度,手中的杯子在不停地旋转,透露出心中还是有几分不自在。

2005年末,券商分析师对2006年的点位预测都在1500点上下,但实际情况是,2006年上证综指的最高点达到了2698.90点;2006年末,大多数券商分析师对2007年的点位预测都远低于4000点,而实际最高点达到了6124.04点。

“很多人都自认为可以战胜这个市场,但实际上只有不到十分之一的人能够真正把握市场。”小李说,“我们处在证券市场中,研究能力不会比别人差,但都很难超越市场的平均水平。这是客观事实。”

在他看来,做策略分析其实并不复杂,套路也大同小异:一是看大的宏观背景;二是看上市公司的资质;三是看市场的资金供求关系、投资者的投资心理;四是看市场整体估值水平。

或许正是这种套路上的雷同,使得分析师们对2008年的市场走势作出了集体误判。

年初,大家都做出了较为乐观的判断,就是因为有着较为一致的观点——中国牛市的基础并未消失。

说起年初对市场的判断,小李如数家珍。“从宏观来看,几乎没有人会否认中国经济的内在增长动力依旧强大,并且经济增长的质量有可能更好。上市公司方面,从2007年的情况看,利润增长主要来自主营收入、期间费用和投资收益,预期2008年上述三项的贡献均将大幅削弱,但全年净利润增长仍可能达到30%左右,这是可以大致匡算出来的。此外,2008年的资本流入可能加速,导致资金供给充裕。这样的分析逻辑虽非无懈可击,但也还算严密。”

对于估值判断,小李所在的券商也做了相对保守的估计,即剧烈的上升阶段已经过去,将转入缓慢上升,但尚未进入下降周期。如果保守的估值定在25倍PE,并以25%的业绩增长为因子计算,则刚好对应于4300点的水平。而且,经过2007年底的一轮调整,大家的态度相对谨慎起来,所以大家的基调基本上都是“踏遍青山牛未老,巨幅震荡免不了”。

然而,上述看似稳妥的分析结果,却在不到两个月之内被市场击得粉碎。

“虽然对股市的宽幅调整已经有所预期,但并没有想到风暴会来得如此剧烈。这也一度让我们不知所措。”至今仍让小李感到困惑的是,2008年年初至3月中,上证综指跌幅超过20%,30多个风格指数和行业指数中,仅农林牧渔板块1个行业指数获得正收益。

带着不解,小李不断进行反思。他认为,目前看来,主要问题可能在于对外围经济的发展及其影响估计不足,对国内经济形势以及估值的判断有误。

外围经济方面,次贷危机负面影响从金融领域蔓延到实体经济,从美国扩散到全球。欧美经济增长预期普遍下调,美国经济的衰退迹象则已开始显现。而外围经济放缓影响中国出口,也影响了中国经济增长预期。从国内经济来看,去年4季度以来,经济过热在宏观数据中体现得日益明显,其核心表现是通胀。进一步紧缩政策的出台已经难以避免,这对A股市场形成极大的压制。

资金流方面,2008年全年大小非解禁金额合计达16199亿元,高于2007年的9184亿元。如果考虑所有的限售股份,2008年全部限售股份解禁市值达到30111亿元,而在2007年为23112亿元。2、3月份迎来2008年第一个限售股解禁高峰,在信心不足的环境下,流动性的短期紧缩对市场形成较大的杀伤力。

虽然对市场的问题作出了一定解释,但指数以后究竟如何走向,小李承认自己仍是身在此山中,没有明确思路,“现在很多分析师已经开始忌讳谈论指数。”

而对于他的新结论“沪综指短期内在3000―4000点之间震荡”,有人问他:这个预测的准确率有多高?A股估值究竟会不会回归到2007年初的15倍PE以下?小李的回答是:“这个问题我无法回答!分析师不是神仙,也有看不懂市场的时候!毕竟这个市场还不能称之为真正的‘市场’,很多市场之外的影响因素根本无法预期。”

难道没有更好的分析方法吗?小李表示,“更好的方法也可能会有,但创新是要冒风险的。这有点像集体负责制,最后的结果是集体不负责。大家似乎有一种默契,这样可以心安理得地享受这种状态。况且,目前也不能下结论说,前面的分析思路就一定是不好。”

那么,股民还应该相信券商的研究报告吗?“书中自有黄金屋”,小李顿了顿,若有所思地说,“但,尽信书不如无书!”

April 10, 2008 10:50 AM

Anonymous said...

Hi Sam,

Great to know u've "reactivated". Please include me in ur list at ur convenient; kltan21@yahoo.com. Thank you.

Samgoss said...

Sense n logic comment by TL on y KLSE "decouple" from regional fall lately ? :-

Sifu Sam

This is the time to draw a line . Either we ride on the bear which thought to be a bull, or a bull which are actually a limping 1 leg bull...anytime can break and collapse.

Bottomline.....we cannot catch the bottom but we can do ' value ' buy. Will continue to wait for your ' signal '

KLCI is actually being window ' pushing ' by certain quarter which want to paint a glossy picture. ( my personal opinion only ) if KLCI jatuh everyday ....like HangSeng and Shanghai market......very fast our AAB will got to play chess with Tun M ( Persatuan Percen Untuk Ex PM ) Like it or not.......our government need to kuat-kuat kasi TOLAK.....until when they will tolak ? or got enough bullet to tolak or support the market ? EPF got !

Samgoss said...

I like this statement :-“书中自有黄金屋”,但,尽信书不如无书!”

Means dont go by d book ! need to be flexible abit ^V^

EVeryone know PBB , XXXXX is worth to hold 4 long term.. if u know very well that mkt is going thru d bearish zone, buy n hold is not a ideal way, sell first n buy back later even d stocks u hold r solid fundamental ! no stock could decouple from mkt crash be it PBB or PPB ! if u doubt , wait n see ^V^

tkh said...

thanks

cken said...

Sam,
Really feel the pinch on the inflation in the country.
Price increased on almost everyting. Below are some of my findings:-
-A bowl of curry mee cost RM3.50 now become RM4 - Rm4.50
-A KFC's dinner plate set plus a large pepsi cost Rm11.97 now cost Rm12.50 started this week.
-A glass of my favarite coffee ais cost Rm2.00 before now cost Rm2.50 started early this month
-A cup mee which cost Rm1.40 in minimarket now sell at Rm1.50 since yesterday.
Looking at the price increase in most of the raw material now. I can rest assure more increament to come.
Sam, can you share your view that what type of business will be benefited from the inflation. Thanks.

anakin said...

Hi Sam....

Hopefully get your mail soon.
my email been send to you last year ago. Pls kindly add. thanks

cheekin_lai@yahoo.com

山芭佬 said...

林师傅:
还是要这样称呼你比较好!怕给你的FANS柄我.哈!

看到很多人希望你将他ADD在你的MAIL LIST里面,就觉得自己是很幸运的.哈!能得到你的青睐,将我这山芭佬加在你的名单里面.

昨天和朋友谈起,说起我们应该集中投资还是去做所谓的分散投资.

我个人比较喜欢集中.因为以我目前的兵力,去做分散实在是有点多余.不知你的看法有是怎样?

对于你所说的,在现在的市先卖出,然后再买回.(希望我没有估错你的意思.因为只能靠估!)我有点意见.

对于我自己的主力军,我到现在还没有卖过一张,因为我相信他是只好股.就算是股价跌,我想我也只会加码.因为从一开始的买进,我就不打算是在近期内卖出的.我是预算将来退休时,慢慢MIT的.哈!

因为自己的不懂,所以我只能像傻瓜一样的,买进别人都认为是好股,好管理层的股来收.

可能你会认为这样的买来收的策略不很好.但我自问自己没有这个能力去猜测什么时候是高,什么时候是低.(你还没教我功夫!)所以我只能用这傻瓜策略.因为我觉得这会比较适合我这些没资本又没知识的山芭佬去做.

我不祈望能一朝发达,我只希望可以一步一步稳稳的走向致富之路.投资致富本来就应该是很简单的事.是吗?希望能得到你的认同.哈!

P/S:看到很多朋友希望你能将他加入你的LIST.为的是什么?希望能得到你给的TIPS?XXXXXX??哈!
我倒希望能从你的MAIL中学习到自己怎么去抓鱼.

话多了!请见谅!

顺祝生活愉快!生活安康!

Aundre wu said...

si fu sam,

Now is the time to buy china currency "ren ming bi" ? or just wait US go to reccession just buy more.. What is your opinion ?

Tks.

Unknown said...

Sorry sifu sam distract a bit…share investing is never a 100% sure way to riches but below is: -

The Star
THE Selangor government is all set to probe the alleged signing of a RM120mil contract between a private company and the previous state government to supply and provide maintenance of 414 units of closed circuit television cameras (CCTV) at public places in the various districts

bukimak it works out to be rm290k per unit (120m over 414) of the cctv…assuming 1 cctv costs rm500 (very optimistic estimate) and instant return 58k%...

118 said...

$ifu $am, Something else besides share market...Lin Dan involve in fighting incident again!
Ha, tis time he had a fight with his own couch - Ji Xin Peng ! What a World no. 1 ! more news in sports.sohu.com

ahwah said...

samgoss, TL, ben and gang,

seems like this phrase "分析师很傻很天真", "很傻很天真" became a famous sentence for everyone nowadays when they did something wrong.. haha..

looks like evergreen currently stucked at around rm1.30 even though their earning is good. engtex also did rebound last few days with huge volume. collection on the way? any comment? will wait aside to see better picture..

btw, appreciate samgoss & gang, and hope that you could add me in your mailing list.

prinze@gmail.com

cheers!

ves said...

Uncle Sam,

Mail received. Thank you very much for your unselfish sharing. Will wait patiently for your new signal.

ees said...

Hi Sam,

Now we are facing with inflation, yet the stock market is in bearish zone, can share your opinion whats the best way to hedge against the inflation? How to grow our $$ that is in the piggy bank?

BTW, mind to add me into your mailing list?
Last month I requested once, but didn't get your reply yet whether I'm in the list.

here is my email
eeshct@gmail.com

yueer888 said...

Sifu Sam

Does that mean it is still not too late to cut loss? In another word, better to have some bullets ready for your next call, Sifu?

Please advise.

phanghf said...

Hi Sifu Sam,

I have been following your blog since last year. I miss your posting. glad to hear from u again. I am keen to join as samgang list.
add: phanghf@yahoo.com

Thanks.

Samgoss said...

2 all, still remember those days we call mainland chinese as " Ah Chan" !? fyi.. who is ah chan as at todate ? jgn jgn kami yg digelar Ah chan by them ha ha..

4 those who never been in china b4.. something to share with u guys:- d wakening dragon :-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WwfRz8eOZaA&feature=related

INVESTOR said...

I have left my name 2 times in your blog but did not get any email from you.

Mind to add me? I want to join your next battle.


phcew@hotmail.com

Benjamin said...

Bro Sam, this Anwar must have read your blog. He commented he will not go for by election and vote of no confidence on AAB at least for the next few months. I think he is fully understand the benefit of having a useless opposition leader just like what written in Sun Tze Art of War. ^_^

So is Apr 15, 2008 still valid? I still choose to stay aside. What say?

Samgoss said...

Hello bro..conduct a FA course in SC ? ha ha... to be frank..i hv never think about that ..never.

To be very honest, u think I am good !? well.. if compared to TA buggers..no question at all.. I can close one eye n put them under my feet !

If u campare me with other fundamentalist..shy to say..i dare not to even mention my name infront of them.

2 make $$$$ from KLSE is not that difficult if u r adopting FA method. 2 those who doesnt know anything about gearing, NTA ,future earning , cash flow.. ther is one simple way 4 u 2 hunt under value stock :-

Go 4 low PE blue chips during bear mkt , u will never regret ! cos they r proven with its good management n track earning records over d years , as simple as that.

should u sell now n buy back later ? well.. I am afraid it is abit too low 4 u to chop now ,but then again, seeing there is no strength 4 KLSE to rose further, if i were u, i will sell half n keep d other half .hopefull u can buy back at much cheaper price 4 d one u sold.

as it can be seen..mkt rose >50 points with thin voltraded since begining of last week, d problem here r .. only selected blue chip stocks r moving, >80% of d stocks r still stood like a rock ! this is solely a technical rebound ! couple with thin vol traded over d weeks, i dont think d bull is back !

2 118, lin dan punched his coach ? I saw that news also.. this player is hopeless ! too errogant , he thought he is unreplaceable.. shame on him !

tan81 said...

there are some friends asking about your blog. Do you mind me to put your blog with a link in my blog?

I am looking for your permission.

Thanks.

Samgoss said...

Tan81..go ahead i dont mind about that^V^

Bear in mind, dont think I am god of shares.. they need to take certain risk also.

pls take note.

Samgoss said...

Iris ha ha..who to blame if not those greedy gamblers themselves ! crying n licking yr wound now ? dont blame d syndicate but u yrself !

Last year high traded @ 1.36 with PE > 150 !!!..even u calculate its pe based on current price..it is still damn high @ > 28 .

further more, it has lousy track earning records in d past.. bosses like 2 goreng !

4 those who think that high PE stand for high prospect, can u explain to me is iris traded at 1.36 with PE > 150 stand 4 high prospect also ? calling one..calling twice ! macam mana ? still high PE stand 4 high prospect ?

A typical example to show u guys how stupid n risky it is for buying lousy earning high PE stock ^V^

Evergreen said...

Uncle Sam,

I didn't receive any email from you
since I gave you my email address on 8/4/08. Instead I received few
emails from one CK Kok introducing the website www.ivadvisor.com
I don't know how he got my email,
may be get from your blog, or
is CK Kok = Uncle Sam?

fangsiah ‎我 为 人人 @ 人人 为 我 said...

TL : Not to worry. KLCI have so many times in past weeks defying all odds and successfully
" DECOUPLE " from USA Bear point blank gun firing. Hidup EPF, Hidup Khazanah, Hidup Petronas = Please tolak KLCI kuat - kuat next week...

11 April 2008 : The S&P 500 sank 27.72 points, or 2 percent, to 1,332.83 and lost 2.7 in the week. The Dow average tumbled 256.56, or 2 percent, to 12,325.42. The Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 61.46, or 2.6 percent, to 2,290.24. More than nine stocks declined for every one that rose on the New York Stock Exchange.

fangsiah ‎我 为 人人 @ 人人 为 我 said...

TL : Since Sam blog is widely view and visited, TL wish to take the chance to highlight my own failure in the early years of picking and recommending the wrong counter - Megan Media. I believe some member who follow Samgang portfolio do suffer some damages and losses too due to TL wrong pick.

TL : Please do receive 3 kow-tow from me. Deeply and truely apologised for bringing some of you to Holland trip.

11-04-2008: Megan Media to be de-listed April 23
by Kevin Tan
Email us your feedback at fd@bizedge.com


KUALA LUMPUR: Megan Media Holdings Bhd will be de-listed from Bursa Malaysia on April 23, 2008 unless the company makes an appeal by April 18.

In a statement to Bursa Malaysia on April 11, Megan Media said Bursa Securities had decided to de-list the company since it did not have an adequate level of financial condition to warrant continued listing on Bursa Malaysia.

The company has failed to submit its regularisation plan to the Securities Commission and other relevant authorities for approval by the Feb 18 deadline.

On Feb 19, Bursa Securities announced that it had commenced de-listing procedures against Megan Media.

Aundre wu said...

si fu sam,

No reply me ... :(

Now is the time to buy china currency "ren ming bi" ? or just wait US go to reccession just buy more..Are you still holding and buy in lots ? What is your opinion ?

Tks.

GK said...

hi Sam,

Could you pls add me to your mailing address? I will for your call. Hope can recover. Thanks and appreciate!

naz said...

Dear Sam,

I have been a loyal reader for a long time. I thought you were gone there for awhile which was very bad news for us loyal followers of yours. I'm glad to see you back with new writings. I support your views using FA very much. Keep up the good advice because they're spot on!

Would appreciate it very much to be included in your mailing list sifu.
My email is naz_b_85@yahoo.com

Thank you.

Samgoss said...

^V^

Ha ha bro Tan.. u r damn good in language translation..bravo ^V^


I left out something here >>
> 25 太贵了
~ 20 可以考虑
< 15 便宜
< 10 非常便宜,市场暴跌才会出现

stock @ PE < 15 is only considered cheap or value buy provided its future earning is sustainable ! we cant consider stock A with PE < 10 as cheap without any sustainable future earning ^V^

for example : stock A with PE 3.3 ( Share price / EPS = RM1.00/EPS 0.30) , no doubt , it is dirt cheap for buying stock A @ Rm1.00 with its EPS of 0.30 ,

BUT!!! but if its coming earning turns into losses or decline , let say its future earning drop by 90 % (0.30 x0.1= 0.03cts),
D new PE for stock A is now stood @ RM1.00 /EPS 0.03 = PE 33 !!! see ?

Hence , b4 u jump in to buy Low PE stock, first, u must make sure its future earning is sustainable ^V^ , second , check it past earning track records to ensure that.

future earning is d key factor to determine d growth of d company.

same goes to :-

if u buy stock B @ PE 17 ( RM 1.00/EPS 0.06) , once its future earning jump from 0.06cts to 0.30cts, d new PE for stock B is now stood at PE 3.3 =RM1.00/EPS 0.30. see ? d key factor is future earning .

Since future earning is so unpredictable n always coming with risk, thus..y should we take high PE stock ? that's y i always stress, go 4 low PE stock for safe play.

btw.. my nick name is samgoss not samgross..ha ha pls take note .

best regards.


Dr CH Tan tanhin28@streamyx.com wrote:
Dear Sam

this is the first piece of the articles mainly a translation form yours,please verify the points i put forward.if you are ok, I will publish in my blog. thanks

tanhin
今天我要介绍SAMGROSS的天时,地利,人和,看得懂英文的最好去这里看,为了行文方便,我以第一人称书写。

SAMGROSS 要我提醒大家要学习他的方法,一定要坚守两个原则
1) 不能CONTRA((即是不要想在T+3内卖出)
2) 一定要有持票能力。
孙子兵法说 :要彻底赢得战役,你必须要有

天時

地利 及

人和
缺一不可。
每个人都知道什麽是: 天时,地利,人和,.

你知道并不代表你了解。
你了解了,并不代表你懂得如何运用在投资股票上.
什麽是天时呢?天时是无法控制,只能虚心的了解,比如外国及本地的市场情绪,行业前景及消费趋势对个股的影响。
什麽是地利呢?地利就是你能控制基本面,如盈利成长良好,涉及的领域大丰收,买入本益比(PE)<10 还是>50 是你的选择。
什麽是人和呢?人和就是时机(TIMING)好的时机可以注意交易量的突增---是不是有大股东买入/国内外基金收集/有好消息就要宣布。
我(SAMGROSS)认为
蓝筹股 本益比 平均 25
> 25 太贵了
~ 20 可以考虑
< 15 便宜
< 10 非常便宜,市场暴跌才会出现
二三线股 本益比 平均 15
>18 太贵了
< 10 可以考虑
< 5 非常便宜

三者之中,我认为 地利 或基本面(FA)最为重要,如你拥有有地利的股票,短期内你可能无法获利,但长期而言,你会获得你应得的回报,这些股票的例子有 PPB ,PBB,YTL ,IOI, Maybank 及 Genting 等等..

有天時及人和 但缺少地利其实是以投机或听谣言买入,偶而会获利,但更多时候你将不能得到你想要的。

如你要玩短线,你需要天時及人和,当然还有运气,但如果你要以有限的资金安全及平稳的获取最大的利益,你需要三者皆在, 如果天時 及人和没善待你,你还有地利的支持 。

大马股市(KLSE)在现阶段是严重缺乏天时及人和, 如你现在买入,你需要最少持票几个月,而且在熊市中你的获利也是很有限的 (广东人说的;你赢,赢一粒糖,你输,就输一间厂 ).

永远记得要顺风而行, 天时与人和同在时,买进有地利(FA)的股就如顺水推舟,顺风顺水,大富大贵

当市场走下坡时,没有天时及人和,如果我们冲进去买,就如 逆水推舟,不进则退,即使有 地利也会遭殃。


地利的股适合玩长期。 我的经验是地利股长期虽然可以赚钱,但你有需要付出长期持股,资金被绑,错失其他买入良机的代价吗?先卖出,以后才买回不是更好吗 ?虽然我们并不知道那里是最低点,但在熊市,肯定可以在更低价买回。

GK said...

Hi Sam,

Can you add me into you mailing list pls? my email is guankwee43@hotmail.com, thanks.

VLimTT said...

Hi Sifu Sam,

I have been a silent follower of your blog since last year. In fact, I still have a lot to learn from you. Since you stop blogging I hope you don't mind to add me in your samgang list.

vincelimtt@yahoo.com

Thanks.

jason said...

Hello, i'm new here, i would like to learn more about FA...could you please include me in your mailing list? ...thx ya

leeyanchao2001@hotmail.com

steve said...

Hi bro sam, Hope u can include me into ur mailing list. Been a silent reader in this blog for a long time. Seem like u been sharing ur advice in email. Hope you can continue to share. Thank you.

st28st1@gmail.com

Rgs,
steve

Voyager8 said...

Now the mainland people call the HK people as 港灿 liao.

There are news that 深圳 people working in HK now opt to get salary paid in RMB instead of HKD.

风水轮流转. We can't predict the future, anything can happen. Should do more good deed to maintain good karma.

Joe8 said...

Good job bro Tan!! Can u share ur blog? i hope my parents can understand more about FA method as they dont know english. Thx a lot!!

choonliang@hotmail.com

Unknown said...

Dear Sam,
Please include me in your mailing list.
Thank you very much.

From: James

lng.kmku@gmail.com

Snoopy Tee said...

hi sam,

Have been reading your blog for months. can add me?
shane_a82@hotmail.com
I wish to learn more from you.

Thanks,
Hugo

Samgoss said...

^V^

2 aundre wu, yes ..i am still keeping my RMB since last year June 07, will keep it till end of 08. besides currency, u can keep yr eyes on commodities such as Steel n Soya, FYI, i hv zero position on both of them expect some steel related stock such as masteel.

commetted by TL ;_
Hi Sifu Sam

Our major customer Disney , one of their unit major in retail apparel already file for chapter 11 in USA ( mean in Malaysia - pokai = Bankruptcy ). Last week my boss just specially flew to HK to meet their VP on our outstanding debt not paid......

We have engage a US based legal firm to filed in our claim notice.....

Imagine...if Disney also serve pokai notice, I cannot imagine those kacang-putih company in USA.

My MD already alerted me......to go all out to chase for USA customer payment.....some already start to goyang

USA 2/3 is consumer driven based.....so if so many consecutive month drop........your guess is good as mine what we can expect for this coming next 1-2 GDP growth rate.....if not drop into negative zone...can consider bonus !

Take care.



April consumer sentiment at 26-year low
Index slumps as Americans worry about higher fuel, food costs
Reuters
updated 1:52 p.m. ET April 11, 2008
U.S. consumer confidence fell to its lowest in more than a quarter century in early April, diving deeper into recessionary territory on heightened worries over inflation and jobs, a survey showed on Friday.

The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said its preliminary index of confidence fell to 63.2 in April from 69.5 in March. This was well below economists' median expectation of a reading of 69.0, according to a Reuters poll.

The April result is the lowest since March 1982's level of 62.0, when the "stagflationary" period of low growth and high inflation was still fresh in the memory of many Americans.

"There have only been a dozen other surveys that have recorded a lower level of consumer sentiment in the more than 50-year history of the survey," The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said in a statement.

"Persistently high food and fuel prices as well as rising unemployment have caused consumers to view their future financial prospect more negatively (than) any other time since 1980."

The report showed its reading on one-year inflation expectations jumped to 4.8 percent -- the highest since a similar reading in October 1990 -- from 4.3 percent in March.

Five-year inflation expectations rose to 3.1 percent -- the highest since December 2007 -- from 2.9 percent in March.

The index of expectations for personal finances fell to 97, its lowest since April 1980 when it was 94, from 112 in March.

The index of current personal finances fell to 87, its lowest since November 1982, when it was 85, from 93 in March.

Copyright 2008 Reuters. Click for restrictions.

Benjamin said...

See this. Potential threat of war... all my four prediction are starting to realised.

糧食危機/IMF、世銀:糧價飆恐掀戰 各國須即穩定物價

2008/04/14 15:30 記者管淑平/編譯

國際貨幣基金(IMF)和世界銀行13日對全球糧食價格上漲提出警告,表示糧食價格上漲可能帶來嚴重後果,甚至包括挑起戰爭,呼籲各國採取行動穩定物價。

IMF總裁史特勞斯康恩在IMF春季年會上說:「食物價格如果照今日的情況繼續發展下去…結果將是很可怕的」,「成千上萬人會陷入飢荒…導致經濟的動盪。」他說,這波糧食價格上漲有可能讓過去5或10年得到的發展成果「完全摧毀」,這種社會不安甚至有可能引發戰爭,「從過去經驗所知,這種問題有時候會釀成戰爭。」

全球稻米,小麥,玉米等主食價格上漲對開發中國家的傷害尤其大,因為這些地區人民的收入很大一部份都用於維持生存的基本民生物資﹔高油價也會驅使糧食價格上漲,讓通貨膨脹惡化。 史特勞斯康恩說,如果全球希望避免這種「恐怖後果」,就得處理正持續上漲的物價,而這需要全球的合作。 IMF與世界銀行這次年會聚焦美國次貸危機引發的全球經濟動盪和飆漲的能源和糧食價格。

世界銀行總裁佐立克13日也表示,糧食價格上漲將讓窮國約1億名的窮國人民更窮,呼籲各國立刻採取行動解決糧價飆漲,他說:「我們必須把錢花在那些需要食物的人身上。」

根據世界銀行估統計,2004年到2008年全球稻米和小麥兩大主食的價格增加了一倍多,到今年2月為止的36個月間,全球糧價平均漲了83%,其中小麥價格更飆漲了181%,過去兩個月米價漲75%,全球糧食存量則降低到1980年以來最低水準。

在這次會議上,IMF與世銀的開發委員會通過了佐立克提出的全球糧食政策新對策,短期行動包括呼籲各國政府實踐援助窮國糧食,5月1日前填補聯合國世界糧食計劃組織援助窮國的5億美元資金缺口,目前只有一半的承諾兌現﹔長期計劃諸如透過發展農業和改革提高糧食供應,同時世界銀行將把援助非洲農業的貸款提高將近一倍,到明年時增加為8億美元。

此外,佐立克也正在推動「1%計劃」,也就是呼籲各國撥出主權基金的1%投資非洲,相當於300億美元,降低非洲在這波經濟動盪中受到的衝擊。

Aundre wu said...

Thanks bro sam,

Do you think there is potential to up furthermore if I buy RMB now ? from May to December..? Need your comment...Thanks..

CH Tan said...

joe8,

sorry miss your mail,my blog http://tanhin.blogspot.com/ and two frequently updated and good Mandarin's blogs to share http://stfund.blogspot.com/ and
http://yy-mylifediary.blogspot.com/

hope your parents enjoy reading

tanhin
(Sam,please allow this post if you feel ok for me to promote my blog, otherwise it is ok)

tianhock2000 said...

uncle sam , start reading your blog
since end of 2006 .
Interested to learn from you , appreciate if you could add me in your mailing list .
tlixin@singnet.com.sg or
th_tan@shonan.com.sg

Samgoss said...

2 aundrey Wu , I am still keeping my RMB , not even a cts sell off since i first bought in June 07 . More rate will be raised by Bank of China to solve inflation problem, n also more rate to be reduced by FOC to tackle their sub prime crisis, one up one dowm..see d gap ?

Doctor Tan , thanks 4 d translation :- @ http://chinese4.cari.com.my/myforum/viewthread.php?tid=1178873&extra=page%3D2%26amp%3Bfilter%3D86400%26amp%3Borderby%3Dlastpost%26amp%3Bascdesc%3DDESC

well done ^V^
SAMGOSS的股海沉浮之万人皆醉我独醒
算一算,从大学毕业至今,我沉溺在股市都有十七,八年,经历了牛熊牛熊牛熊的大起大落,虽说没赚到买洋房,坐名车,也没输到斩手指,叫救命,至于赚还是亏,之前我都没告诉你以何价买了什麽股,又以何价卖了什麽股,赚了多少,当然是我说了算,事后孔明的事我还低不下人格来做,那也就不用说了。我的故事以后再说。

那网上写blog的/短讯的/论坛发表的/报章分析的/skype/msn/messenges上说的内幕/chatbox里吹棒的,大多数都是股价起了才说已买进,跌了就赶快说早已在高价套利卖出,一点说服力都没有,都只是在我说你听。更多的是要误导你盲从买入,推高价好让他出货。所以我并不鼓励新手游览太多的blog 或论坛,也不要上太多msn/skype/messenges听信太多tips/谣言,这些对投资是百害而无一利的。

当然买卖股票是很个人的事,告不告诉人你买卖什麽是你的权力与自由,如何吹棒赚取多少,回酬几高也是阁下的事。

当然是有一些call before hand buy 的例子,但中文论坛的人都知道佳礼发生的不辛遭遇,而我看到的几个,除了糊涂版主成绩不错外,其他的不是亏损到消声灭迹,就是惨淡经营,好久好久都不update blog或写过的帖子。

虽然我中文读得比英文多,又好,但工作关系,先接触英文网站,因此很久以前就知道这个osk 风云人物SAMGOSS(常被称Uncle Sam,但看起来很年轻),可惜我一个无名无性的小人物,实在没有交会的机缘。

我相信他是除了冷眼前辈(这个比我大很多,又真的有料,一定要叫前辈)外,在大马股市赚得最多又最稳定的个人投资者之一。

二十六月内有299%的回酬!!!而且都有白纸黑字的交易证据!!!这是难以想象的成就!!!比财经版里那几个叫我们付费买他们的投资软件的吹牛王好得太多了。

难得的是他也像冷眼一样苦口婆心的劝人要以基本面(fundamental)投资,不要以技术投机。

不相信,自己去看吧!

网站是股海沉浮 之 万人皆醉 我独醒

Samgoss said...

Hi Sifu Sam,

Something i not really understand, just wish to learn more from you.

No question, PE ratio analysis is one of the good investment method measurement, but if we

only based on PE ratio (which is based on past earning) to determine the entry level

without take into the consideration of future earning at that particular situation, to certain extend,

we are taking big risk too, right?

The most difficult part is, we, as a outsider of a company could not really know and assess the current and future

direction of a company, for example, a company could be very impressive in term of their past few quarter

result, but past record couldn't guarranty the future earning, and one of their current mistake or the

management selfish aggenda could lead a company to holand. I just feel that if we only based on PE ratio,

we actually are putting our bet and confident on the company management, which a lot of the time,

they are not acting for the best of the shareholder.


So just to chk with you, when you decide to buy a stock, other than PE, do you hav any other source

of information (not mean to listen to rumors) or method of measurement to assess?

That's all at the moment.

Thank you very much for all your unselfish sharing. Wish you be always successful in the investment and happy

with what you are doing.

Regards,

Yong

***

Answer 2 Yong ,

1) Once u put yr leg into shares mkt, u r actually putting yrself into d sea of risk.

2) No sure thing in this world except "Death". But buying Low PE stock esp bluechips will eventually lower yr risk of loss n maximise yr potential of gain.If they can be what they r after 50 years listed in KLSE with all d obstacles like 911, 1998 SEA crisis, 1987 black monday n... this shown they r really solid FA n well managed by their bosses.

3) yes , buying Low PE stock or buying good earning track records stock does not guarantee u sure win without sustainable future earning ! no doubt ! BUT >> if Low PE stock does not guarantee u sure win, what do u think HIGH PE stock ? boleh ? just like telling u a slim tall guy couldnt run under 11 seconds in 100 metre , do u think a fat shorty can run under 11 seconds ? as simple as that ^V^

B4 i buy in any shares, low PE is my first consideration, after that i will look for its past earning records to estimate its future earning.

Normally, I will not consider to buy in any shares with PE > 15 for lower liners n PE > 20 for bluechip.

Let presume Low PE = educated man, high PE = non educated man.

There is no guaranteed of success for educated ppl same goes to there is no guaranteed of failure for stupid man, BUTTTTT >>> chances for educated man to get rich or success r 10 times higher than non educated ppl. dont u agree with me ? this is y we shld buy low PE bluechip ! cos d chances for us to make gain r 10 times higher than buying high PE stock.

Mkt surged 11 points today..wait..look at d overall mkt vol 4.40mln only ..convincing enough ? i dont think so ^V^

Samgoss said...

Subject: HUAAN , are you busy?
Date: Wed, 16 Apr 2008 07:24:47 +0000
Samgoss, i just want to say that i dont know how busy you are, whether u full time work or just millionaire playboy who play stock in free time. So is it ok if i write and ask you things (like i read your post want to know so many things and sometimes want to ask but scared you taruk me)? i appreciate you sharing your knowledge freely. Difficult to find one show-hand first and honest and logical person. I know you may get tired see people ask question all the time but please understand that i want to try to "model" you, not only get tip (of course that also very ok). read Anthony Robbins and he say to model the person you want to be. You are as close as the person i know. Bro, if i may- according to you, what is the biggest mistake a person can make in the market (excluding use TA technique)? I hope you got time, otherwise i will try not to ask so much. Also, if i write i try to compile before i sent so you dont get question everyday. Plese tell me if ok to write and ask or should just listen to you, learn and not say too much. Thank you. ccdev

***

Hello bro..Huaan ? r u referring to stephen chow "s movie " Dong PAk Fu tim chow hiong " HUAAN ?

Ha ha..i like that name Huaan 华安 ^V^ (dont terbalik it ok ? otherwise it will becomes our former DPM, Anwar 安 华 )

First of all, did i ever projected myself as millionaire playboy in my blog ? ha ha i think u found a wrong guy, fyi, I always kena played out by ppl lehhh.Hence, I am not millionaire playboy, I am actually "being played BOY "^V^ ha ha

Wanna to get close to me ? better not..cos i am very LCLY one n also not easy to deal with..i always think that i am correct, reluctant to accept ppl's advice esp those TA losers..maaf yah !?

Anyhow..2 all d TA buggers..my view still d same, anything can be accepted EXCEPT TA !!

bro.. dont follow me blindly, learn along d way, I am mot perfect also ^V^

As for XXXXXX , it is cheap also if u buy @ anything 7.00+_, u will definitely make $$$ in long term whether u buy it now or < 6.00, I am abit kiasu n greedy, i wanna to make $$$$more from it, that's y i am still waiting ...

FYI, bro Tailow already bought in some XXXXXX yesterday. see ? he is so confident on XXXXXXX..bro Tailow ..dont worry, mark my words.. u will surely make one !!! u will make more $$$$$ if u can buy below 6.00 .

Samgoss said...

Dear Doctor Tanhin, thanks 4 yr translation again :-

SAMGOSS 的问与答
循丛要求,SAMGOSS 建议。

Hi Sifu Sam,

有一些东西不是很明白,希望能够向你学习.

我知道本益比是其中一个好的投资指标,但纯以本益比(这只依据过去的赚益)来决定买入点,而没考虑到未来的赚益,其实是有很大的风险。

最难的是,我们做为门外汉,不能真正知道及检验公司现在与未来的方向,譬如公司可能在前几个季度成绩杰出,但以前的记录并不能确保未来的盈利,而任何一个投资错误或管理层居心不良,都能把公司带去荷兰。

所以我觉得如果只是依靠本益比,我们就像把赌注及信心交到公司的管理层,而很多时候,他们的所作所为都不是以小股东为出发点。

想问的是:当你买进一支股时, 除了本益比,你还有用其他指标或讯息吗?

Regards,
Yong

SAMGOSS 答:

1)只要你一脚踏入股市,就已把自己推入危机重重的股海,风险是避免不了的。

2) 除了死亡,这世间没有“肯定”的事。但买入低本益比的股票,特别是蓝筹股却肯定能降低亏损的风险及提高获利的潜能。如果这些股项能够经历了911 恐怖袭击,1987 黑色星期一,1998 东南亚金融风暴这些阻碍,挂牌五十年后还竖立不倒,这证明了它们基本面超强,管理良好。

3) 当然,如果未来盈利不能持续,买进低本益比或盈利记录良好的股票是不能保证一定投资获利;但如果买进低本益比都不能保证赚钱,那高本益比的股票呢?能够吗?

这就好像我告诉你:高廋的人不能在11秒内跑完一百公尺,可是肥矮的人能够吗?就这麽简单。

在我买入任何股票前,低本益比是我的第一个考量,之后我会审查过去的盈利报告来预测未来的盈利 。

基本上我不会买入本益比 〉15 的二三线股或本益比 〉20 的蓝筹股。

让我们做个比较:低本益比 = 受过教育的人,高本益比 = 没受过教育的人,这里没看轻人的意思。

受过教育的人没有保证一定成功,没受过教育的人不见得保证失败。但是受过教育的人最后成功及富有的机率肯定比没受过教育的高出十倍以上,你同意吗?

这就是为什麽我们应该/只是/一定买进低本益比的蓝筹股,因为我们获利的机率比买进高本益比的股项高了十倍以上。

Joygerm said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
mahen said...

uncle Sam,
I have been a silent follower since last year.
I am another victim of the china dolls.
Your advise and FA method have been really an eye opener.
Please add me to your mailing list
mahenster@gmail.com

AhLee8888 said...

Dear LCLY Samgoss,

Wah, you millionaire play boy boy ka ... kekekekek!!! Aiyoyoyoyo.. I remember Anwar also like that one.. u jangan jangan = Anwar ah?!!!!

Watzup with this XXXXXX counter la?
You can share share ka?.... i also wanna start collecting, maybe 1 or 2 lot lor. No $$$ leh, as capital small small and also kena TONG by TA Buggars plus China Dolls cabutz with my $$$$ while i sleeping!!!


So if wanna share share and u r good hearted LCLY guy.. you put me in your mailing list ah.. can ka...This one my email, ahlee8888@gmail.com? I kam-siah you 101 times.

If cannot also never mind loh.. i wait for your posting here. Make little bit also better than nothing.

/Ah Lee

Benjamin said...

See today's Business Times:

Citi Invest is expecting KLCI to touch 1,499 by year end. Currently 1,256 another 243 togo ... achievable? Beat me pls ...

http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/Friday/Nation/20080417230031/Article/index_html

tianhock2000 said...

Interesting video here :

做人别太CNN
http://video.cctv.com/opus/subplay.do?opusid=84523

股民祥林嫂:我怎么哭了
http://video.cctv.com/opus/80514.html

Samgoss said...

SAMGOSS 再谈本益比

SAMGOSS再谈一些些关于PE :

有人说高本益比表示这公司前景很好,这样说表示他只知道低本益比是股价/每股净利,而不是一百巴仙了解什麽是低本益比的优势。 Repco 在1993年的全盛时期,以 〉100 的本益比交易,告诉我它有何美好前景?大多数的中国股票都在 〉60 买卖时,不觉得已经超价了吗?泡沫形成了吗?还是觉得中国公司以及他们的warrant 都有高前景,高盈利保障。

叫人买入高本益比股项其实是叫人买入超价或昂贵的股票。

低本益比股项要飚升就要看未来盈利。如未来盈利保持,你会有温和的回酬 ,但肯定好过定存。要是盈利超越预期的突飞猛进,回酬将是惊人的。但是如你预测的盈利变成亏损,低本益比也会死翘翘(如MEGAN).

但是高本益比股项会死得更难看,因为你在顶价买入!既然盈利预测错误,两者都会死,为何要选择高本益比的呢?想一想,你以为你在买卖美国股?你在买Coca-Cola 还是 Wallmart?即使Wallmart的本益比〉50 也已不值得买入。

给你一个典型的例子:GREEN PACKET

那些在RM 4.50以听谣言投机买进的人其实是以44 的本益比(要命的超高)买入 ,但谣言成谎言后,最新的盈利又跌,它的股价就跌,跌,跌跌不休到今天RM 2.28 左右。你看,买进高本益比是多麽糟的事。即使在2。28 ,PE 还是17,比起单位数PE的Masteel,Liondiv 及Mahsing,还不算便宜。

本益比的计算:为什麽要跟从报章或证券行,如果他们都不一样?这证明他们不是不了解什麽是本益比,就是根本不会算。

自己算!这有什麽困难?为什麽会有不同的本益比?很简单,有些证券行用去年的净利来计算,有些用一,二或三个季的净利计算。要用那一个才对呢?去年的本益比当作,利用现在的净利来预测来年的本益比。

例子:去年本益比:6.42

这个季的净利有改善(扣去一次性的盈利贡献,如有)及它的未来盈利前景好(钢铁或石油业)
我们可以理性的预测来年的PE 会更低。这里只是举例说明,不是建议买卖。

Masteel at 1.45(18/4/2008)
• 前年(2006)每股净利= 22.56cents 本益比 = 145/22.56 = 6.42
• 去年(2007)如果只算三个季的每股净利= 4.97+10.79+8.04=23.08 cents
• 本益比已经有145/23.08 = 6.28
好过2006 整年,而这只是三个季报而已,还有一季没算,这样我们就能预测masteel2007年的本益比会低于2006年。而果然如此,第四季有8.42 cents,所以
• 去年(2007)每股净利= 31.50 cents 本益比= 145/31.50 = 4.6

所以告诉我,自己算本益比有什麽困难的?

也许你要等到市场大崩盘,PBB , PPB, Maybank, IOIcorp, YTL, Genting , Digi ,SD , IJM , KNM ,Resorts..这些蓝筹股都跌到本益比 < 10, 而你有机会买进,才能真正了解低本益比的好处。

***

Well done doctor Tanhin, thx 4 yr translation.

Samgoss said...

Guys, CYT said i got no style at all cos i only bought in ONE lot of XXXXXXtoday..ha ha..

CYT n all, this got nothing to do with style !! this is something to do with balls, I got no balls to whack with all my saved bullet lah bcos of d pending subprime crisis.

see d different btwn no style n no balls ?? ^V^

Jeff said...

Dear Sifu Sam,

I would like to express my gratitude on your sharing on FA. I learn a lot especially about PE. As of issue on US credit crunch which is holding you from purchasing substantially, this is my one cent view. I think we should not put too much focus US credit issue. Based on the latest quarterly report of US companies, most of the companies affected are in the financial industry. There are other companies which are still doing well e.g. IBM and Intel. Moreover, I think market has factored in most of the bad news and any positive surprises will boost the markets. I agree with you that we should not buy xxxxxx at this moment. Recently, there are piles of downgrading and market will have to take some time to absorb the selling pressure. The price will not move far from here should the market turns north. However, if the market turns south, it is likely to follow suit.

I think we should focus more on China instead of US. The global economic growth has been driven by China. If not because of China, I think US would have been in the recession in 2007. If China can still maintain its growth momentum, then we would be able to avoid another global crisis which is originating from US credit crunch. Based on its latest GDP growth of > 10%, there is a high probability that we can avoid it. Therefore, I think we have reached the bottom and in order not to miss the boat, we should add some position now (not xxxxxx, but other stocks that Sifu Sam may recommend).

What do you think?

naz said...

Uncle Sam,

Interesting to see you test the waters. I will take up the same position and allocate the same amount of capital as I believe this strategy is perfect to not be left out but stay cautious to the plan. Still a great buy no matter what long-term.

Ps: Chong Wei out too soon la and I just saw Tan Fook and Wan Wah throw their match away. Mentally so weak sometimes our boys!

Samgoss said...

Well said jeff..make sense but still I am a little kiasu..ha ha..i prefer to hold 4 little while till I see huge volume traded by KLSE, current uptrend is still not convincing enough ..cos of "Thin Vol " .

As 4 XXXXXX, can u see d strong supporting @ 6.60+? EPF n Lembaga fund bought in quite alot @ 6.90 to 7.10 lately, yes ! it may not goes anyway even mkt going north but.. I am damn damn sure buying @ current level will assure me GAIN in long term !(further more, plenty of bullets waiting 4 her to come down) i prefer safe bet n sure gain rather than uncertain fast gain ^V^

I might be wrong , but still i think that make less is better than make loss .

Seems like d "I ching" that i posted previously really delivered ! take a look bro.. so accurate or just coincident ?

Come back 2 XXXXXX, if not bcos of all XXXXXX factors, u think we can see it @ < 7.00 ? dont u think she has factored in also ? n dont forget its low is around 6.50 when klse touched 1,150 d other day ^V^

be caution b4 u jump in to buy cos d mkt vol is still not convincing enough , though she keeps rally up everyday but not all across d board, only selected ONG n plantation stocks only.

2 Naz, ok lahh.. we cant expect much from our old tan n choong.. aging already mah.. fyi, i will bet my last dollar on chen jin today, he will definitely beat lin dan n march into final 2molo, wanna 2 bet ? i think 118 know why i am so confident on chen jin..right 118 ?

Liu Yen Fong said...

Dear uncle Sam,
Read your blog since last year. Really hope can learn more from you. very much appreciated if you could add me in your mailing list.

my email address:
yen_fong@hotmail.com

Many thanks

118 said...

$ifu $am, u r right, d result of Chen Jin n Lin Dan had already been decided by Chinese team should they march into semi final so as 2 secure Chen Jin's qualification in Beijing Olympic. Anyway, our players' performance r very very very poor! None of them make it 2 d final even though we r d host nation. So what else could we expect fr them in d Thomas Cup next mth in Indonesia ??? " Bo he bang"

fangsiah ‎我 为 人人 @ 人人 为 我 said...

TL : Bought into China direct via Sino-Huaan this morning at RM0.73.

Take care.

fangsiah ‎我 为 人人 @ 人人 为 我 said...

----- Original Message -----
From: kylim28
To: samltt88@yahoo.com
Sent: Monday, April 21, 2008 10:45 AM
Subject: Direct investing into RED CHIP.


----- Original Message -----


From: kylim28

To: keong

Sent: Monday, April 21, 2008 10:24 AM

Subject: Invest direct into China via Sino-Huaan



Keong



Over the weekend, I have go thru piles of research paper on the industry coke outlook and particularly in China prospect.



From the recent research paper that I attached here, please ignore the target price of Huaan which analyst given RM0.96.



It should be higher by 2 - 3 times than what they targetted based on my analysis by comparing to those listed coke producer ( a type of coking coal for steel industry ) in China and Hongkong.



Report confirm that the company will complete a preliminary finding on the decision to list Huaan in CHINA or HONGKONG within March/April 2008. If the company annouce the decision to list in China or HK, the share price will rocket ......



Should this really happen, Huaan will set for strong re-rating because in China, coal producer commanding a higher PE of range 20x.



Based on Huaan estimated EPS for FY2008, the share price should hit RM3.00 in either China or Hongkong stock market !!!!!



I have bought this morning at RM0.73.



Just for your information, the coking coal price for 2008 will going to jump by another 30% - 50% ( this is the most conservative estimate ).....just not to bullshit....actually market steel big player already lock in coking coal prices above 100% from price 2007..........( they have even sign contract to buy coke price above 2007 price by 100% .....now in China, coke is very sought after commodities......)



For the first 3 month 2008, the coke price already advance 30%.......

( average selling price for Huaan FY 2007 = RMB1700, but current spot price in China hitting RMB2400 ###



Bye and take care.



( Below are some of my correspondence with Investment Bank analyst and the Investor Relation office of Huaan.....everything look promising )



----- Original Message -----

From: bernard@sinohuaan.com

To: kylim28@tm.net.my

Sent: Monday, April 21, 2008 9:01 AM

Subject: Fw: Would Sino Hua-An growth stagnant after 2008-2009 ?



Dear Lim KY,



Good day.



Just to clarify, the 1.8million tones production capacity is not exactly the cap or maximum capacity permitted by the Chinese Government. It is just that at this current times, it is very difficult to procure approval from the Chinese Government for capacity expansion as well as to build new coking plant, in view of the Government’s bigger plan to promote integration and closing down small inefficient plants. For our case, we were lucky to have procured approval from the Government to build another 600,000 tonnes of capacity before the Government’s change of stance.



Since our new coking ovens producing the additional 600,000 tonnes will be fully commissioned and operational by June 2008, we would expect additional contribution from these additional 600,000 tonnes of coke (for 6 months) over and above our existing 1,200,000 tonnes in 2008. In 2009, the full years effect of the 1,800,000 tonnes. So that’s where the growth in revenue will come from for 2008 and 2009. Beyond 2009, assuming we don’t get approval for further capacity expansion (although we are still exploring the possibility), the Company’s growth will still be supported by M&A activities. There are a few M&A propositions that are in line with our aspiration to build the Group into a heavy industry player which we are exploring. However these are still at a very early stage and exploratory in nature and as such we do not have anything concrete yet to talk about them in greater detail.



Best regards,

Bernard Tan



----- Original Message -----

From: kylim28

To: bernard@sinohuaan.com

Sent: Friday, April 18, 2008 4:43 PM

Subject: Would Sino Hua-An growth stagnant after 2008-2009 ?



Dear Sir



In related to the lines quoted here " At 1.8 million tonnes, Sino Hua-An would be at the maximum production capacity permitted by China government regulations." what are the immediate step the management will do in order to enable the company on continuous growth path ?



Quoted

On the company’s future earnings, Choo said Sino Hua-An’s financial year 2008 (FY08) growth would be driven by a 50% capacity expansion of its plant in Shandong Province, pushing production up to 1.8 million tonnes by June from 1.2 million tonnes at present.



For FY 09 and beyond, the turnover will be ' blocked ' and future earnings growth will be bleaked.



Kindly give your comments. On the secondary listing in overseas, any progress so far ?



Thank you



Best regards



Lim KY



Tuesday February 26, 2008
Sino Hua-An eyes 2nd listing
PETALING JAYA: Sino Hua-An International Bhd expects to complete a preliminary report on the company's proposed secondary listing next month.

Executive chairman Tunku Naquiyuddin Tuanku Ja’afar said there was “a serious consideration” for a secondary listing due to the company’s low trading price on Bursa Malaysia.

When the report was completed, discussions would commence with the company's financial advisors and directors to assess the feasibility of the move, executive director Cedric Choo Sia Teik said at a press briefing on the company's results yesterday.

The company is China's largest independent metallurgical coke producer.

On which overseas exchanges the company was considering, Tunku Naquiyuddin said: “It could be Singapore, Hong Kong or London.

Tunku Naquiyuddin (right) briefing the media. With him is independent non-executive director Datuk Mohd Shahar Abdul Hamid.

“But Hong Kong looks interesting as it is used to China companies listing there. We could also be placed in the energy/fuel category that would be more exciting (for investors) than in the industrial sector.”

Sino Hua-An is trading at a price-earnings ratio of five times at 61 sen on yesterday’s close, well below its reference price of RM1. It was listed on Bursa Malaysia on March 26, 2007 in place of Antah Holdings Bhd following the completion of the latter's restructuring scheme.

On the company’s future earnings, Choo said Sino Hua-An’s financial year 2008 (FY08) growth would be driven by a 50% capacity expansion of its plant in Shandong Province, pushing production up to 1.8 million tonnes by June from 1.2 million tonnes at present.

At present prices, the capacity increase worked out to an estimated total turnover of RM1.2bil for FY08 compared with RM852.7mil for the financial year ended Dec 31, 2007 (FY07), Choo said.

On the deferment of the proposed acquisition of 49% equity interest in Jiangxin Steel Co Ltd, Tunku Naquiyuddin said: “I hereby confirm that it is a merely a deferment and not a cancellation.”

Among the reasons for the deferment were the high financing costs on bonds and other instruments in the current capital market, he said.

“We are in no hurry. We will wait to see how the subprime issue plays out in the US,” he added.

Choo said after the company’s new capacity came online in the second half of the year, there would also be more internally generated funds to make the acquisition.

At 1.8 million tonnes, Sino Hua-An would be at the maximum production capacity permitted by China government regulations.

For the fourth quarter ended Dec 31, Sino Hua-An posted a consolidated net profit of RM37.4mil on revenue of RM233.4mil compared with RM30.4mil net profit and RM186.3mil revenue in the previous corresponding period. For FY07, it recorded net profit of RM127.5mil, up almost 11% against RM115mil in FY06.



---- Original Message -----

From: eklim@kenanga.com.my

To: kylim28

Sent: Monday, April 21, 2008 9:16 AM

Subject: RE: Coal price hike won't hurt Sino Hua-An ( Yes or No ? )



Dear KYLIM,



My say: Increase in coal price inevitably will pressure Huaan’s margin and the net profit depends on the quantum of its ability to pass on the cost to its customer at the end of the day (usually they will say 100% pass on). It is difficult to gauge how much they could pass on the cost to their customers although we believe it should be substantial. We expect their gross margin to be protected between 18-19%, so as long as it doesn’t fall off this range, I think their earnings outlook should stay intact.



Ee Kar




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: kylim28 [mailto:kylim28@tm.net.my]
Sent: Saturday, April 19, 2008 9:03 AM
To: Lim Ee Kar
Subject: Fw: Coal price hike won't hurt Sino Hua-An ( Yes or No ? )



----- Original Message -----

From: kylim28

To: bernard@sinohuaan.com

Sent: Saturday, April 19, 2008 9:00 AM

Subject: Coal price hike won't hurt Sino Hua-An ( Yes or No ? )



Dear Sir



On 07/01/2008, Cedric Choo say NO, but he commented otherwise on 26/02/2008 by saying YES.



Which way ? I hope that IR can clarify this issue with Cedric Choo.



Thank you.



07-01-2008: Coal price hike won’t hurt Sino Hua-An
by Gan Yen Kuan
Email us your feedback at fd@bizedge.com

KUALA LUMPUR: Metallurgical coke producer Sino Hua-An International Bhd’s earnings will not be crimped by the anticipated increase in coal prices in China, its executive director Cedric Choo said.

Although the hike in thermal coal price is imminent, prices of coking coal and metallurgical coke in China would be supported by market demand and supply forces, Choo told The Edge Financial Daily in an email reply yesterday.

“The increase in coal price will not affect significantly our earnings and profit margin because when the coal price increases, the coke price also increases, as evidenced by the historical pricing trend of coal and coke that we achieved all this while,” he said.

Sino Hua-An’s core business is coke manufacturing. It has a metallurgical coke plant in Shandong province, China. Coking coal is the main raw material used in the production of coke, which is in turn used as fuel for the production of steel.

Since late last year, China’s media have been reporting a possible increase of 10% in the price of thermal coal in 2008, due to tight coal supply, rising costs and the surge in crude oil price.

Thermal coal is used for power generation, while coking coal for the production of coke. Due to the different chemical compositions, coking coal is priced higher than thermal coal. As such, any increase in thermal coal prices would lead to a hike in coking coal prices.

However, Choo said Sino Hua-An would be able to pass on 100% of the increase in coal prices to its customers by raising the price of its coke.

“The increase in coke price will not affect our sales, as a result of continued robust demand for coke vis-à-vis the domestic demand from the steel and construction industries in China.

“We are still experiencing great demand from existing customers for our coke and we are unable to satisfy fully all their coke quantity requirements. As a result, some of our customers are making pre-payments to us to secure a consistent supply of a minimum quantity of coke,” he said.

For 2008, Choo said he believed that both the prices of coal and coke would continue to increase, albeit at a decelerating rate, in line with the continued growth of the steel industry in China.

“However, such increase in the coal prices is expected to taper off and remain consistent from the second half of the year,” he added.

----- Original Message -----

From: kylim28

To: bernard@sinohuaan.com

Sent: Saturday, April 19, 2008 8:46 AM

Subject: Contradicting comment by Tunku & Cedric Choo



Dear Sir



I am one of the minority shareholder and need to ' re-clarify ' on some contradicting remarks by the top management.

I think since coal is major raw material for the company, the investor at large should be guided correctly on how the coal price effect the company bottom line. Both gentleman have a difference opinion on how the rising coal price effect the company margin. One say yes, and the other say no.



Appreciated your comment very much.



Thank you.



Best regards,

Lim





Quoted from Invest :

Admittedly, the price of coking coal (which is our principal raw material) had also seen an increasing trend in 2007. However, such an increase did not (and will not) pose a problem for our Company as it is seen as a "pass-through" cost element, i.e. we are able to pass on entirely the effects of increases in coal prices to our customers, the steel players. Additionally, as evidenced by our records of price movements of coke vis-à-vis that of coal, the quantum increases in the coke price is relatively greater than that of coal.








26-02-2008: Sino Hua-An defers buy of China steelmaker
by Ellina Badri
Email us your feedback at fd@bizedge.com

KUALA LUMPUR: Sino Hua-An International Bhd, which reported a 10.9% rise in net profit to RM127.52 million in its financial year ended Dec 31, 2007 (FY07), despite a margin squeeze due to rising coal prices, is deferring its acquisition of China’s Linyi Jiangxin Steel Co Ltd as it weighs the effects of a recession in the United States.

Sino Hua-An executive chairman Tunku Naquiyuddin Tuanku Ja’afar said: “We’re still not ready to sign a memorandum of understanding (MoU) yet as we’re a bit cautious in view of the US downturn. Another important point is that this is really the worst time to go to the bank to get financing for a deal like this.”

“We’d like to see an easing of the financial situation before we go further, but the project is still on, we’re just deferring the acquisition,” he said, adding it was also possible it could negotiate a better deal at a later date.

Sino Hua-An announced last August its proposed acquisition of a 49% stake in Linyi Jiangxin for about RM500 million. It had expected to sign an MoU by end-2007 and to fund the acquisition through a bond issuance.

Sino Hua-An produces metallurgical coke and its by-products. Metallurgical coke is a critical raw material used as the energy source for the manufacturing of steel.

Its FY07 revenue rose 16.71% to RM852.73 million from RM730.66 million due to the continued robust and positive pricing of metallurgical coke and its by-products. Earnings per share fell to 12.11 sen from 14.37 sen in FY06. It declared a 20% dividend.

Sino Hua-An executive director Cedric Choo said growth in FY08 would be driven by the increased capacity of its coke plant, which now stands at 1.8 million tonnes annually from 1.2 million tonnes previously.

He said the company targeted to increase revenue in the year ending Dec 31, 2008 to RM1.2 billion with the additional capacity of its plant. It is also looking into investing in environmental equipment to further adhere to China’s strict pollution control regulations.

The management is also preparing a preliminary report on a secondary listing, most likely to take place in Hong Kong, out of other possible markets of Singapore and London. The report was expected to be completed next month, Choo said.

Tunku Naquiyuddin added that a secondary listing was “very tempting” as the company’s share price was low, in the 60 sen range and it was the only red chip company listed on Bursa Malaysia. A red chip company is a China-invested enterprise incorporated and listed overseas.

Meanwhile, on rising coal prices, Choo said the company expected all commodity prices, including the coal price, to rise during the first half of the year, although it would start to rise at a decelerating rate.

He said as the percentage increases in the coal price were slightly higher than the increase in coke prices, the company hoped coke prices would rise to match the coal price, which it passed on to its customers.

For the fourth quarter ended Dec 31, its net profit and revenue surged 23.18% to RM37.44 million and 25.26% to RM233.38 million, respectively, from a year earlier. Earnings per share fell to 3.34 sen from 3.8 sen. Its gross profit margin fell by 6.6% in 4QFY07 against 3QFY07 due to the coal price increase

fangsiah ‎我 为 人人 @ 人人 为 我 said...

TL to Sifu SAM - Welcome on board !

Don't say tumpang my luck....we shall ^ SHARE ^ our luck !!!!

Samgoss said...

Ha ha..TL..I need to tumpang yr luck since year of rat is not my year.. this year is going to be yr year seeing u making from liondiv @1.00 ..good sign..

Jumped in Huaan @ 0.74 for 50 lots this morning.. besides borrowing yr luck.. i did some homework on huaan also..reasons y i jumped in due to d following :-

1) Traded single digit PE of 7+ (地利)

2) Commodities play(天時)..related in steel industry

3)Volume is there (人和) n oso d listing in HK or ssex.

Intended to buy in 100 lots..but abit kiasi seeing Dow will due 4 technical correction anytime from now, hence 50 lots done @0.74 n d remaining 4 <0.70.

Good luck bro ^V^

Samgoss said...

2 all, dont sailang all..buy in stages..I only dumping 5% of my total cash holding on huaan .. remember :-fund n risk management!

Dont follow ppl " U jump i jump !"

Huaan is 4 short n mid term hold , may be 6 months down to road I will let it go .

Seems like d I ching that posted in my previous posting quite "Accurate". dun play play ha ha ^V^

fangsiah ‎我 为 人人 @ 人人 为 我 said...

Hi Sam

Wah lauuuu !!! 50 lots Huaan only make up 5% of your bullet.....?

I already pawn my under wear and manage to buy a few lot oni.

Take care

naz said...

Great stuff guys, will join Uncle Sam's positions. Uncle Sam, what's the size of your lots? You follow new system of 100 units or old of 1000 units?

Samgoss said...

Hi naz... those days we called 1000 shares as one lot , 50 lots mean 50,000 shares.

^V^

Phil said...

Uncle sam,
i have put a link to you site from blog. tq

http://ginsing70.blogspot.com/

naz said...

wah 50,000 shares of Huaan and still just 5%. Respect!

myke8888 said...

Hi Sam...
It's been quite a while. Remember me ?
Pls add me into yr mailing list. My e-mail as follows :
myke8888@gmail.com
Cheers.. and good to be back!

沙米 said...

hi,sifu sam,since ur article are very good,so I have write some of ur idea in my blog without ur permission,hope u agree with it,or i will delete it if u dislike.

Thanks.