^V^
From d bottom of TL's heart, his intention is to to caution those newbies and inexperience investor about the real deep shit of USA economy.
Read below >>>
Earnings Preview
Banking's Black Hole
Liz Moyer, 02.25.08, 4:08 PM ET
Sit tight in your bunker for a while longer. Investment banks face another $30 billion in write-downs in the first quarter thanks to deteriorating conditions in the credit markets, particularly in leveraged loans.
Citigroup again finds itself under pressure, not least from the vocal Oppenheimer analyst Meredith Whitney, who in a research note Monday predicted Citi's shares would drop to levels not seen since the real estate lending crisis of 1990 (that is to say, below $16. It's trading at $25 now) all because of mounting pressure on the bank to shed assets amid further write-downs.
"Core fundamentals are rapidly deteriorating, liquidity has been choked, and recovery rates are in the process of dropping to historic proportions," Whitney wrote in a note to clients. A Citi spokeswoman had no comment.
But Citi is just the poster child for an industry that has yet to see any signs of easing in the credit crisis that began last summer. Things are so gloomy on Wall Street that even the mighty Goldman Sachs is seen having a lukewarm quarter, barring any stealth hedging strategy that could lift it out of normalcy.
Revenues at Goldman are seen dropping 50% from the third quarter and 32% from the first quarter last year, and analysts' average $3.27 per share profit estimate for the quarter, if accurate, would be the lowest quarterly result for the firm since the third quarter of 2006.
In recent days, analysts who follow Wall Street banks have been slashing their estimates for first-quarter earnings, which for Goldman, Lehman, Morgan Stanley and Bear Stearns , include the months of December through February.
Goldman's estimate has slipped from nearly $6 at the beginning of the year. Citigroup is seen reporting 56 cent-a-share profits, down from the earlier 86 cent estimate, according to Thomson Financial. JPMorgan's estimate is 98 cents, down from $1.12, Bear Stearns' is $1.70 down from $2.06, Lehman's is $1.31, down from $1.62, Merrill's is 84 cents, down from $1.52, and Morgan Stanley's is $1.23, down from $1.61.
"The global capital markets environment was very challenging" in the first quarter, says William Tanona of Goldman Sachs. "Both credit and equity markets deteriorated significantly."
The index tracking leveraged-loan trading fell 6% over the last three months, an indication that the weakening credits will force banks to write-off a chunk of their exposures.
Citigroup, already reeling from more than $24 billion in write-downs since October, has the biggest leveraged loan exposure, $43 billion, on its books, followed by JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, each with $26 billion.
Whitney of Oppenheimer calculates that Citi's leveraged loan write-downs alone could cost another $2 billion to $3 billion in the first quarter, and JPMorgan and Goldman up to $1.8 billion each.
Adding to the expected misery, merger advisory and stock underwriting had their weakest quarter since 2005, the $16 billion-plus planned initial public offering announced Monday by Visa notwithstanding. Investment banking revenues are seen falling 35% from the fourth quarter.
Write-downs are expected to spread to areas previously untainted by the subprime contagion. Take commercial real estate, for example. Tanona of Goldman Sachs expects the value of commercial real estate to fall 21% to 26% over the next two years, dragging down the performance of banks that hold exposure to the sector. That would be just about every Wall Street firm.
Already, commercial real-estate-backed securities have declined 8% since the third quarter, suggesting losses of about $1 billion to $2 billion for each of the banks in the fourth quarter, Tanona says.
More write-downs are exactly what Citigroup doesn't need. The bank is facing scrutiny of its structured products business. In a regulatory filing last week, Citi said it had received subpoenas and information requests relating to subprime mortgages, mortgage securities, derivatives and off-balance-sheet funds.
And its balance sheet is burdened with distressed asset-backed securities and mounting credit losses in its consumer lending division. Last year it raised $7.5 billion in new capital from the Abu Dhabi investment fund, and earlier this year it cut its dividend, but some say it may need to raise even more capital.
Citigroup's balance sheet is "highly constrained" from an inability to sell lower quality assets, said Oppenheimer's Whitney, adding that Citi might have to sell some $100 billion in assets to free up capital. Unfortunately, "under duress, Citi will likely be forced to sell what it can and not what it should."
63 comments:
2 118, yes, lots of things need to be done by BAM, single player beaten double player in double is something unacceptable n shameful !!
wake up wake up !
looking forward to this coming all england open, can Taufik capture his first ever all england champion ? he captured most of d big title except ALL ENGLAND CHAMP !
Lin Dan said :- u want it ? ask me first !!
SIFU SAM, THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR YOUR ASSISTANCE. I HOPE MY MESSAGE AND INTENTION HIT THE RIGHT BUTTON - STRAIGHT & HARD !
TO ALL NEW KID ON THE BLOCK, SAVE YOUR MONEY NOW OR OTHERWISE YOUR OLD CROCODILE UNDERWEAR ALSO NEED TO BE PAWN FOR CONTRA LOSS.
it looks like rcecap do not have any support at all after sifu sam sold it....anything wrong with its fundamental?
sam, y u cover yr face, r u not confident of yr handsome look, or u r wanted by d police??..hehehe
sam, put up more photos that u hav taken in harbin, let us enjoy d marvellous scenery, and we can share d joy that u hav last yr..and where is yr gfriend???
Dear Pharmalogik,
As what Sifu told, when market drop, even FA cant fight against the market. That is why even US rose 189ts ytd, but our market was like ..... I'm also disappointed.
Cheers,
GK
Sifu Sam,
I wish to go out n look from outside too..But, I buy in the KNM at 6.40 lastime..Now, plan to wait for the split..Then, I buy in the ECM at 0.83 n Kinstel at 1.40...Should I keep tis further till Apr, as mention in ur IChing theory..?
TL : IF U ARE LAZY TO READ THE WHOLE ARTICLE, JUST GO TO THE LAST LINES FROM MERILL LYNCH !
January foreclosures up 57%
Filings saw yet another big jump last month, compared to levels a year ago; 45,327 homes were lost to bank repossessions.
By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer
February 26 2008: 8:40 AM EST
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Foreclosure filings nationwide soared 57% in January over the same month last year - another indication that the nation's housing woes are deepening.
A study released Tuesday by RealtyTrac, an online marketer of foreclosure properties, showed that 233,001 homes were affected, 8% more than in December. Of that total, 45,327 homes were lost to bank repossessions.
The only good news was the comparatively modest month-to-month increase in total filings.
"It could be that some of the efforts on the part of lenders and the government - both at the state and federal level - are beginning to take effect," said James Saccacio, RealtyTrac's chief executive.
"The big question is whether those efforts are truly helping homeowners avoid foreclosure in the long term, or if they are just forestalling the inevitable for many beleaguered borrowers," he said.
Many mortgage-assistance efforts simply give borrowers a chance to pay off missed payments, rather than lowering monthly payments, which effectively just delays foreclosures. But now lenders claim they are restructuring more mortgages by lowering or freezing interest rates and reducing balances. These solutions are much more likely to help people save their homes.
Nevada, California and Florida had the highest foreclosure rates in the nation. During the housing boom, all three states recorded big price run-ups, and saw a large proportion of homes sold to investors. In Nevada, one of every 167 homes was in some foreclosure stage last month.
California had the largest total number of foreclosures among the states. There were more than 57,000 foreclosure filings there in January, one for every 227 homes. Florida trailed well back in total foreclosures with 30,000, but its rate of one for every 273 households was only slightly behind its West Coast rival.
Several states recorded massive jumps in foreclosure activity in the last twelve months. In Rhode Island filings rose 279%; in Maryland they spiked 430%; and in Virginia they leapt 634%.
All three of those states had fairly modest rates to begin with. In Virginia, for example, even with that whopping increase, the rate, overall, was one in every 617 homes, about a quarter the rate in Nevada.
Eighteen states substantially improved since last January. In Pennsylvania, foreclosure filings fell 55% to just 1,683, one for every 3,226 households. West Virginia recorded a drop of 54% to a miniscule 53, one for every 16,667 households. And Vermont's total dropped in half, from two to one.
Foreclosure and lending laws vary greatly from state to state, and that can have a huge impact on foreclosure rates. But most places have been recording ever-higher foreclosure numbers as home prices stagnated, and the effects of many of the non-traditional mortgages issued during the boom years took hold.
Subprime, hybrid adjustable rate mortgages, with interest rates that reset to much higher, often unaffordable levels after a two or three year period of low rates, caused many borrowers to default.
Even more exotic products, such as interest-only loans, where balances don't shrink, or, worse yet, option ARMs, where balances grow, also contributed to foreclosure problems.
Those products have just about disappeared from the marketplace today and that should, eventually, lead to healthier foreclosure statistics in the future. But, before that happens, real estate markets will have to improve and, according to many experts, that's not likely to happen much before the end of 2009.
Merrill Lynch, for example, is forecasting home prices will fall by 15% in 2008 and another 10% in 2009. That will likely continue to fuel high foreclosure rates.
LIONDIV 2nd Q EPS 0.71
1H net profit 47.635 million (decreased 91.93%)
WOW!
what happen to liondiv actually?
TL : LION DIV - 2Q 2008 RESULT
DO NOT BE ALARM FOR THE SLUMP IN EPS AND NTA. AGAIN I LIKE TO USE THE WORD ' DECOUPLE ' HERE.
THESE ARE PURELY ACCOUNTING DECOUPLE WORK. BY NOT CONSOLIDATING PARKSON HI-5 PERFORMANCE FOR 2 STRAIGHT QUARTER, NATURALLY THE PERFORMANCE OF LION DIV TAKE A DIVE.
MOREOVER THE DRI NEW PLANT ONLY WILL COMMENCE BUSINESS TOWARDS END MARCH 2008, THEREFORE WE CANNOT EXPECT TO SEE MUCH FROM LION DIV TILL 4Q 2008. SALES WILL ONLY ROLL IN FROM 3Q 2008 AND EXPECTED ON GRADUAL BASIS.
TL : MAKAN , TIDUR, MINUM & BANGSAI ALSO LION DIV !
MR DOW : SO WHAT TO WORRY ? HERE U SEE....I GO UP AGAIN TRIPLE DIGIT !
TL : HAVE THE BEAR LET LOOSE FROM THE CAGE YET ?
Housing prices to free fall in 2008 - Merrill
According to a Merrill Lynch report, home prices will drop 15 percent this year, and declines will continue in 2009.
By David Goldman, CNNMoney.com staff writer
January 23 2008: 5:24 PM EST
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The worst housing financial crisis in decades is only going to get worse, a Merrill Lynch report said Wednesday.
The investment bank forecasted a 15 percent drop in housing prices in 2008 and a further 10 percent drop in 2009, with even more depreciation likely in 2010.
By contrast, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) expects housing prices to remain flat in 2008. NAR did cut its home price estimate for the current quarter, however, to a 5.3 percent year-over-year decline, which represents the steepest drop in that price measure on record. But NAR sees an uptick in home prices in the last two quarters of 2008.
"Merrill Lynch's figures are way too pessimistic, and they are unprecedented," Lawrence Yun, the National Association of Realtors chief economist told CNNMoney.com. "There is so much variation in local housing markets, and we see stable price conditions for 2008."
The current housing crisis and the depreciation in home prices have pummeled the economy, with businesses and consumers cutting back on spending, raising the specter of a recession. "Lower sales and higher inventory for sales are lowering the velocity of transactions," said Fritz Siebel, Director of US Property Derivatives for Tradition Financial Services. "That cannot be a sign of good health for the economy."
But for those who think that the worst is over, Merrill Lynch said that housing prices still remain comparatively high. The brokerage believes that home prices are still far above historical norms when compared to other measures such as rent or GDP. "By our calculations, it will take about a 20 to 30 percent decline in home prices to correct this imbalance," said the report.
Merrill Lynch believes that housing starts will most likely slide another 30 percent by the end of 2008 - a historic low.
The report says that the inventory situation only continues to worsen, as homebuilders are now looking at more than a nine months' supply. "The current supply/demand environment does not favor a swift recovery in the housing market, in our view," according to the report.
Yun agrees that the reduction in housing starts will not bode well for the economy, especially in the homebuilding industry, but he believes that the reduction will soothe the housing market by slowing the glut in inventory. "The reduction in housing starts is not stabilizing the economy, but it will stabilize the market," said Yun
TL : ANYBODY WANNA TO KNOW HOW SIFU SAM LOOK LIKE ? MOST OF HIS PHOTO POSTED IN WEB WERE PARTIALLY COVER UP.
TL HAVE A CLEAR PHOTO OF SIFU SAM. BUT PLEASE DO NOT HOPE THAT IT WILL LOOK A LIKE THOSE EDISON CHEN TYPE.
THE ONE I HAVE IS RATED : SUITABLE FOR ALL AGES - FROM 3 TO 90 YEARS OLD.
FOR THE HIGHEST BIDDER WHO WISH TO SEE HIS FACE, PLEASE PUT UP YOUR TENDER.
SIFU SAM........DO NOT WORRY, I WILL NOT TAMPERED ( DOCTORED ) YOUR PHOTO BY USING EDISON CHEN BODY AND CUT AND PASTE YOUR HEAD ON TO IT.
JUST JOKING...I WILL NEVER REVEALED SIFU SAM PHOTO BECAUSE ONCE REVEALED TO PUBLIC, A LOT OF GUYS WILL BE JEALOUS & ENVY OF HIS GOOD LOOKING ( YOOK SHU LUM FOONG )...STAY TUNE FOR WEDNESDAY UNCLE BEN TESTIMONY......WHO DARE TO SAY USA IS IN RECESSION...IS JUST SLOWER GROWTH ONI WHAT !
Precisely TL ! guys..since we can only see much in 4qtr 08, I sold 60 lots of my liondiv @1.455+ just now , keeping d bullets 4 bottom fishing , when is d bottom fishing ? sorry i dont know.., i am staying out from d mkt ! shares exposure has been reduced from 20% to about 5% + of my total fund.
About d Iching saying good mkt in March n April, well..I hope I am wrong n iching is correct ^V^ pls take it as a guide but dont over rely on that !
DOW surged more than >300 points since last week, i dont think she can stay there any longer ! more shits r on its way..yet to see d worst , hence, i prefer to stay side line n watch d show.
2 tailow ? where is my GF ? ha ha..pai seh to say, i hv no GF ha ha... y covering face ? u know lah..lots of TA buggers out there r waiting to chop me off lah..need to take extra caution lohhh...
MR FED CHAIRMAN SAY : NO LAH...WHERE GOT !
As economy struggles, ‘stagflation’ threat looms
Slowing growth should contain consumer costs rise, but that isn’t happening
The Associated Press
updated 6:01 p.m. ET Feb. 26, 2008
WASHINGTON - It's a toxic economic mix the nation hasn't seen in three decades: Prices are speeding upward at the fastest pace in a quarter century, even as the economy loses steam.
Economists call the disease "stagflation," and they're worried it might be coming back.
Already, paychecks aren't stretching as far, and jobs are harder to find, threatening to set off a vicious cycle that could make things even worse.
The economy nearly stalled in the final three months of last year and probably is barely growing or even shrinking now. That's the "stagnation" part of the ailment. Typically, that slowdown should slow inflation as well — the second part of the diagnosis — but prices are still marching higher.
The latest worrisome news came Tuesday: a government report showing wholesale prices climbed 7.4 percent in the past year. That was the biggest annual leap since 1981.
"We're in a slowdown," Press Secretary Dana Perino said at the White House, where the economics talk was still upbeat until recently.
Once the twin evils of stagflation take hold, it can be hard to break the grip. People cut back on their spending as they are stung by rising prices and shriveling wages. Businesses, also socked by rising costs and declining demand from customers, clamp down on their hiring and capital investment.
That would be a nightmare scenario for Wall Street investors, businesses, politicians and most everyone else. They're already looking to the Federal Reserve for help, but the Fed's job is complicated by the situation.
The mission of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues is to nurture economic growth and keep inflation under control. To brace the teetering economy, the Fed since September has been ratcheting down its key interest rate. Another cut is expected in March. However, to combat inflation, the Fed would be expected to boost rates instead.
"The Fed has its hands full. It is preoccupied with the economic slowdown at the front door, but inflation looks to be sneaking in the back door," said Greg McBride, senior financial analyst at Bankrate.com. "If that trend continues, the Fed would need to show the economy some tough love, meaning higher interest rates to keep inflation from getting out of hand."
On the other hand, Brian Bethune, economist at Global Insight, said Bernanke can fight only one war at a time, and the more pressing issue right now is to shore up the ailing economy. "That's the war that needs to be fought. The war on inflation will have to come another day," Bethune said.
Maybe things won't be so bad. Stock prices rose for the day, continuing a recent mini-rally. The Dow Jones industrials closed up 114.70 points. And Federal Reserve vice chairman Donald Kohn said in a speech that he doesn't expect the recent elevated inflation readings to persist.
"But the recent information on prices underlines the need to continue to monitor the inflation situation very carefully," he added.
Some numbers underscore the concerns:
Prices paid by consumers were up 4.1 percent last year, the biggest increase in 17 years. Those higher prices — especially for heating homes and filling up gas tanks — are taking an ever-bigger bite out of paychecks. Workers' weekly earnings are down 1.4 percent from January a year ago when adjusted for inflation.
Oil prices galloped past $100 a barrel to close at a record $100.88 on Tuesday. Those lofty energy prices are a double-edged sword: They can spread inflation through the economy by boosting the prices of lots of other goods and services, and they can leave people with less money to spend on other things, thus slowing overall economic activity. There are signs high energy prices are causing some damage on both of those fronts.
People are hunkering down. Earlier this month, nervous shoppers handed the nation's retailers their worst January in almost four decades. High gas and food prices, the toll of the housing bust, the credit crunch and a tougher job market all were to blame. Disappointing sales were widespread, hitting discounters like Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and upscale merchants like Nordstrom Inc.
Wary employers eliminated jobs in January, the first nationwide loss of jobs in more than four years.
With the economy on the edge of a recession — if it hasn't toppled over already — the Fed for the near term is much more likely to keep lowering rates. Yet, with its own forecast revised last week to show even slower growth this year as well as higher inflation and higher unemployment than previously anticipated, Bernanke and his colleagues have made clear they'll need to stay nimble.
Can a serious bout of stagflation be avoided? Many economists believe the Fed's aggressive rate cuts along with tax rebates for people and tax breaks for businesses will lift the economy in the second half of the year.
Until then, analysts warn that it could feel like the country is suffering through a mild case of stagflation— even if technically that is not the case. "It could feel like a bad flu," said Bethune.
In the past stagflation episode in the 1970s and early 1980s, inflation sometimes hit double digits — much higher than the current rate. And unemployment was higher, too. In 1975, for instance, the jobless rate zoomed to 8.5 percent, the highest since the early 1940s. Last year, by contrast, the jobless rate averaged 4.6 percent.
"In the real economy, activity looks slow but not disastrous," Alice Rivlin, former vice chair of the Federal Reserve, told Congress Tuesday. But she added: "Uncertainty remains great. ... The risks are mainly on the downside and gloomier forecasts are not hard to find."
Copyright 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
TL : WHO IS THIS FDIC ?
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) preserves and promotes public confidence in the U.S. financial system by insuring deposits in banks and thrift institutions for at least $100,000; by identifying, monitoring and addressing risks to the deposit insurance funds; and by limiting the effect on the economy and the financial system when a bank or thrift institution fails.
An independent agency of the federal government, the FDIC was created in 1933 in response to the thousands of bank failures that occurred in the 1920s and early 1930s. Since the start of FDIC insurance on January 1, 1934, no depositor has lost a single cent of insured funds as a result of a failure
TL : WHY FDIC RECENTLY POP UP AGAIN...DURING THESE TIMES. IS THE RIGHT TIME OR JUST " KAM-NGAM "
ON 14 JAN 2008, FDIC has issued the attached two-part Notice of Proposed Rulemaking relating to the potential failure of an insured depository institution. The very last visit was way back in 1999.
TL : STOP LOOKING AT YOUR STOCK SCREEN FOR 5 MINUTES AND GO TO THIS WEBSITE : http://www.earthside.com/earthside/2008/02/fdic-preparing.html
TL : SO WHAT NEXT ? I REALLY DUN KNOW.......
TL : NOT SURE THIS NEWS LOOK OKAY OR NOT TO YOU ?
FDIC to Add Staff as
Bank Failures Loom
By DAMIAN PALETTA
February 26, 2008; Page A2
WASHINGTON -- The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is taking steps to brace for an increase in failed financial institutions as the nation's housing and credit markets continue to worsen.
• Out of Retirement: The FDIC is recruiting 25 of its retirees experienced in handling insolvent financial institutions.
• The Reasoning: The agency is preparing for an increase in failed financial institutions as the housing and credit markets worsen.
• What's Next: The FDIC will give an update today on the number of "problem" institutions that regulators are watching most closely.The FDIC is looking to bring back 25 retirees from its division of resolutions and receiverships. Many of these agency veterans likely worked for the FDIC during the late 1980s and early 1990s, when more than 1,000 financial institutions failed amid the savings-and-loan crisis.
FDIC spokesman Andrew Gray said the agency was looking to bulk up "for preparedness purposes." The division now has 223 employees, mostly based in Dallas.
The agency, which insures accounts at more than 8,000 financial institutions, is also seeking to hire an outside firm that would help manage mortgages and other assets at insolvent banks, according to a newspaper advertisement.
In public, policy makers are debating what role the government should play in trying to stabilize the housing market and minimize foreclosures. Meanwhile, regulators have worked discreetly behind the scenes to closely monitor the growing number of troubled banks and thrifts considered at risk.
"Regulators are bracing for well over 100 bank failures in the next 12 to 24 months, with concentrations in Rust Belt states like Michigan and Ohio, and the states that are suffering severe housing-market problems like California, Florida, and Georgia," said Jaret Seiberg, Washington policy analyst for financial-services firm Stanford Group.
In job postings on its Web site, the FDIC said it is looking for people with "skill in performing duties associated with a financial-institution closing, such as receivership management, resolutions and/or asset disposition; knowledge of the resolutions process as it relates to complex financial institutions." Such positions would require "very frequent overnight travel," the posting said, and would pay up to $180,770.
"The notion of bringing back some people who have been through it before is very smart," said William Isaac, who was FDIC chairman from 1981 until 1985. All told, the FDIC has roughly 4,600 employees, far fewer than the about 15,000 it had as recently as 1992.
On Sunday, the FDIC ran a newspaper ad seeking companies that could service commercial loans, mortgages and student loans in the event of a bank failure. It didn't say how much a company could earn in this area.
The FDIC rated 65 banks and thrifts as "problem" institutions at the end of the third quarter of 2007, up from 47 institutions a year earlier. Both figures are low by historical standards. At the end of 1993, there were 572 "problem" banks and thrifts. The FDIC is expected to update its data on "problem" institutions today.
Before the housing market soured, the banking industry was enjoying one of its most profitable stretches in U.S. history. There wasn't a single bank failure from July 2005 through January 2007, an unprecedented span.
There have only been four bank failures in the past 12 months, a rate the FDIC has easily been able to handle.
In many parts of the country, the housing-market decline has hamstrung banks, and regulators have reported weakening performance of commercial real estate, small business and credit-card loans. Exacerbating the situation is a cash-flow crunch, which makes it harder for banks to obtain funding to originate new loans.
FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair, Comptroller of the Currency John Dugan and Office of Thrift Supervision Director John Reich have warned of a pickup in bank failures. Last week, Mr. Reich reported that the thrift industry lost a record $5.2 billion in the fourth quarter.
The FDIC was created by Congress in the 1930s after a series of bank runs during the Great Depression. At the end of 2007, it had $52.4 billion in its fund that backstops the nation's insured deposits
Why Washington’s rescue cannot end crisis story
By Martin Wolf
Published: February 26 2008 17:34 | Last updated: February 26 2008 17:34
Last week’s column on the views of New York University’s Nouriel Roubini (February 20) evoked sharply contrasting responses: optimists argued he was ludicrously pessimistic; pessimists insisted he was ridiculously optimistic. I am closer to the optimists: the analysis suggested a highly plausible worst case scenario, not the single most likely outcome.
Those who believe even Prof Roubini’s scenario too optimistic ignore an inconvenient truth: the financial system is a subsidiary of the state. A creditworthy government can and will mount a rescue. That is both the advantage – and the drawback – of contemporary financial capitalism.
In an introductory chapter to the newest edition of the late Charles Kindleberger’s classic work on financial crises, Robert Aliber of the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business argues that “the years since the early 1970s are unprecedented in terms of the volatility in the prices of commodities, currencies, real estate and stocks, and the frequency and severity of financial crises”*. We are seeing in the US the latest such crisis.
All these crises are different. But many have shared common features. They begin with capital inflows from foreigners seduced by tales of an economic El Dorado. This generates low real interest rates and a widening current account deficit. Domestic borrowing and spending surge, particularly investment in property. Asset prices soar, borrowing increases and the capital inflow grows. Finally, the bubble bursts, capital floods out and the banking system, burdened with mountains of bad debt, implodes.
With variations, this story has been repeated time and again. It has been particularly common in emerging economies. But it is also familiar to those who have followed the US economy in the 2000s.
When bubbles burst, asset prices decline, net worth of non-financial borrowers shrinks and both illiquidity and insolvency emerge in the financial system. Credit growth slows, or even goes negative, and spending, particularly on investment, weakens. Most crisis-hit emerging economies experienced huge recessions and a tidal wave of insolvencies. Indonesia’s gross domestic product fell more than 13 per cent between 1997 and 1998. Sometimes the fiscal cost has been over 40 per cent of GDP (see chart).
By such standards, the impact on the US will be trivial. At worst, GDP will shrink modestly over several quarters. The ability to adjust monetary and fiscal policy insures this. George Magnus of UBS, known for his “Minsky moment”, agrees with Prof Roubini that losses might end up as much as $1,000bn (FT.com, February 25). But it is possible that even this would fall on private investors and sovereign wealth funds.
In any case, the business of banks is to borrow short and lend long. Provided the Federal Reserve sets the cost of short-term money below the return on long-term loans, as it has for much of the past two decades, banks can hardly fail to make money.
If the worst comes to the worst, the government can mount a bail-out similar to the one of the bankrupt savings and loan institutions in the 1980s. The maximum cost would be 7 per cent of GDP. That would raise US public debt to 70 per cent to GDP and would cost the government a mere 0.2 per cent of GDP, in perpetuity. That is a fiscal bagatelle.
Because the US borrows in its own currency, it is free of currency mismatches that made the balance-sheet effects of devaluations devastating for emerging economies. Devaluation offers, instead, a relatively painless way out of a slowdown: an export surge. Between the fourth quarter of 2006 and the fourth quarter of 2007, the improvement in US net exports generated 30 per cent of US growth.
The bottom line, then, is that even if things become as bad as I discussed last week, the US government is able to rescue the financial system and the economy. So what might endanger the US ability to act?
The biggest danger is a loss of US creditworthiness. In the case of the US, that would show up as a surge in inflation expectations. But this has not happened. On the contrary, real and nominal interest rates have declined and implied inflation expectations are below 2.5 per cent a year. An obvious danger would be a decision by foreigners, particularly foreign governments, to dump their enormous dollar holdings. But this would be self-destructive. Like the money-centre banks, the US itself is much “too big to fail”.
Yet before readers conclude there is nothing to worry about, after all, they should remember three points.
The first is that the outcome partly depends on how swiftly and energetically the US authorities act. It is still likely that there will be a significant slowdown.
The second is that the global outcome also depends on action in the rest of the world aimed at sustaining domestic demand in response to a US shift in spending relative to income. There is little sign of such action.
The third point is the one raised by Harvard’s Dani Rodrik and Arvind Subramanian, of the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington DC, (this page, February 26), namely the dysfunctional way capital flows have worked, once again.
I would broaden their point. This is not a crisis of “crony capitalism” in emerging economies, but of sophisticated, rules-governed capitalism in the world’s most advanced economy. The instinct of those responsible will be to mount a rescue and pretend nothing happened. That would be a huge error.
Those who do not learn from history are condemned to repeat it. One obvious lesson concerns monetary policy. Central banks must surely pay more attention to asset prices in future. It may be impossible to identify bubbles with confidence in advance. But central bankers will be expected to exercise their judgment, both before and after the fact.
A more fundamental lesson still concerns the way the financial system works. Outsiders were already aware it was a black box. But they were prepared to assume that those inside it at least knew what was going on. This can hardly be true now. Worse, the institutions that prospered on the upside expect rescue on the downside. They are right to expect this. But this can hardly be a tolerable bargain between financial insiders and wider society. Is such mayhem the best we can expect? If so, how does one sustain broad public support for what appears so one-sided a game?
Yes, the government can rescue the economy. It is now being forced to do so. But that is not the end of this story. It should only be the beginning.
* Manias, Panics and Crashes, Palgrave, 2005.
martin.wolf@ft.com
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008
TL, talking about edison chen..ha ha we guys hv 2 thanks him , if not bcos of him, we hv no chance to see super stars in nude ! am I not correct ? we r human being ! man is man.. this is man nature , accept it n face d fact ! u think school teachers never do things like what edison did ah ? u think politicians never do that ah ? all r d same including our parent! i know facts r very hard to be accepted esp i said parents r doing d same ! but this is fact !
Do we need to pity cecilia chung, bobo , ah qiu n d rest ...?? ..come on bros .. u know their character n behaviour very well ! if they dont sleep with edison, they will sleep with someone else also.. further more they r in celebrity life , it is normal for them !
IF u r fan of them , never too late to wake up ! they r not fit to be yr idol ! I am talking about d way they screw around !
Conclusion , we r human being , all d same !if u critic them on their intercourse style! excuse me bros, , ask yrself, r u not doing d same ?
TL ...boy oh boy....I wish I am the actor / hero of this scandal. Just a slight thinking of xxxx act ...will send us to the moon !
To Edison - You Da Man !
All ye unbeliever, wait, the mother of all crashes is coming
The unholy trinity
1) US subprime
2) Us consumer
3) and last the shanghai bubble.
When shanghai crash, we shall all go down. Muahahahaha
Lessons from Warren Buffett’s guru
Phillip Fisher says he doesn't want a lot of good investments but a few good outstanding ones.
Q: What can we learn from Philip Fisher?
Philip A. Fisher, one of Warren Buffett’s investment gurus, is known for his philosophy on the qualitative aspects of selecting a good company for investment. Buffett learned qualitative analysis from him.
Fisher got his early education at Stanford Business School. He joined an independent San Francisco bank as a securities analyst in 1928, and founded Fisher & Co, an investment counselling business, in 1931.
According to his book entitled Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits, one of the most important investment philosophies from Fisher is Scuttlebutt, which he also calls “the business grapevine”, in investing.
Scuttlebutt is the use of the business grapevine to analyse a company. We can obtain the information from customers, employees, suppliers, academics, trade association officers, industry observers, etc. This information is crucial in determining the character of its managers and the potential of the company.
A good company should exhibit unquestionable management integrity, own highly competitive products, be in a healthy financial position, have good cost control and be effective in its research programme.
According to Fisher, even though it is hard to know quality of management, a good management team should possess the ability to carry out day-to-day tasks efficiently and have good long-term planning. The management should also have high integrity and maintain good labour, personal and executive relations.
Fisher is a believer of growth investing. We need to select stocks that have great potential to grow their businesses. It will be a waste of time to hold on to stocks that have no growth potential. He believes that we can get capital gains by buying into these companies as their stock prices would go up in line with the increase in their intrinsic value.
It requires extensive research before you can get one. Fisher said: “I don’t want a lot of good investments; I want a few outstanding ones.” These companies can be bought at high historic price earnings ratio (PER) because there is a possibility that their stock price is reflecting good news you don’t know about yet.
The growth companies should demonstrate strong and well-directed research capabilities. These companies should also exhibit an above-average sales organisation. Besides, they need to have a sustainable profit margin and good return on capital. Normally, these companies are the market leaders in the industry and have the advantages of scale.
A consistent and predictable dividend policy will provide the minimum returns to investors. Although high dividends are good for investors, to maintain business growth, high growth companies need to retain a certain level of profits for future expansion.
If a company is paying dividends with little retained earnings, it will cause lower reinvestment, which will affect its long-term growth. As mentioned earlier, the main returns to an investor is capital gain. He believes that buying into high growth companies will provide the capital gain.
When to sell
Fisher believes in long-term investment. According to him, the most important thing is to select the right stocks. “If the job has been correctly done when a common stock is purchased, the time to sell it is almost never,” he said. However, if we select the wrong stocks, we need to sell.
We need to admit that we have made mistakes in our calculation. This attitude is important as not many retailers have the courage to admit their mistakes. Furthermore, we should not expect to be right all the time. We should be aware that we can make mistakes and we will make mistakes in our analysis, but more importantly, we need to learn from our mistakes.
Fisher said: “The chief difference between a fool and a wise man is that the wise man learns from his mistakes, while the fool never does.”
Fisher will only call a sell on a stock when the company or industry has changed and the stock no longer qualifies as a growth stock or a better prospect is available elsewhere. He will not sell a stock just because a stock appears to be selling for a significantly above average PER or because the stock price has increased.
He believes that most investors always make mistakes by selling their stocks with the hope of buying them back at lower prices. In most instances, the investors miss the stock when it recovers.
Man normally talk 4 things, ie. Money, woman, sports and politic.
Samgang talk about money all the time; TL just bring up the topic of woman while Sam very much like badminton. Seems like I have to talk about politics already. ^_^
Just put aside the lousy performance of our governement. I always feel shame when compare to our adjacent countries. :{
Anyone not expecting GE rally here? But too bad, the current ruling government once again dissapoint us. Can someone tell me he/she is not suffering of losses from recent market dipping? (Eventhough knowing this is a global trend, but when major market up 2%, KLCI marginally up 0.2%, when major market down 3%, KLCI follow the same quantum.)
Everyone knowing gasoline price, steel, cement and many others consumer products will go skyrocket after GE. What we are expecting is to have some sweets to make these bitter medicine taste better. But where is the sweets we have been long waiting for?
Will you cast your vote wisely this round?
Extract from recent interview between TL and Mr Bernanke on 27 Feb 2008 at Warung Mydin, Petaling Street, Kuala Lumpur.
TL : Some say inflation, some say recession...and now some even say stagflation. What is your view then ?
Mr FED : Arhhh ? Apa binatang tu call stagflation ? Never dengar before lah !
TL : OK, let me put it in layman term for U. The stagflation is a situation btw recession and inflation. Kadang-kadang naik, kadang-kadang turun.
Mr FED : Alamak...manyak confuse lah. Lulu wah belajar kat Sekolah Rendah pun tak pernah dengar ini macam punya term lah.
TL : Never mindlah....so how and what are you going to do about that ?
Mr FED : Come on ler brother....easy job lah. If market punter expect 25 points rate cut, then I cut lor....if they want 50 points cut, then I also cut lor...so Dow ini macam boleh sustain...tarak turun punya.
TL : But cutting interest rate may fuel inflation rate poise higher towards the recession end curve.
Mr FED : U manyak susah lah. Lagi kasi wah confuse....let me think....OKAY....i think ini macam...bila rate sudah potong sampai 1.00% by end of 3Q 2008, wah kasi naik sikit-sikit...
TL : Sikit-sikit mean how much ?
Mr FED : Brother....jangan tanya manyak-manyak....sekarang recession punya cerita belum ' kau-tim ', lu pegi tanya pasal inflation....kasi gua manyak pening lah.
TL : Okaylah....jom...minum Teh Halia yang saya sudah order untuk awak ni.....
US data fuel stagflation fears
By Daniel Pimlott in New York
Published: February 26 2008 23:18 | Last updated: February 26 2008 23:18
A sharp drop in US consumer confidence, to its lowest level since the beginning of the Iraq war in 2003, and a jump in inflation among producers highlighted the deepening risk of stagflation, figures released on Tuesday showed.
Separately, data on house prices and foreclosures showed that the housing market continued to plumb record lows at the end of last year and the beginning of this year.
The consumer confidence index fell to 75 in February from 87.3 in January, the worst reading in five years, according to figures from the Conference Board. Consumers’ perspective on current situations fell to its most downbeat since October 2001, during the last extended period of contraction in US economic growth, while future expectations hit their worst level since 1991.
“The weakening in consumers’ assessment of current conditions, fuelled by a combination of less favourable business conditions and a sharp rise in the number of consumers saying jobs are hard to get, suggests that the pace of growth in early 2008 has slowed even further,” said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board’s consumer research centre. “With so few consumers expecting conditions to turn around in the months ahead, the outlook for the economy continues to worsen and the risk of a recession continues to increase.”
As well as a sharp deterioration in consumer confidence, a 7.4 per cent rise in producer prices was the largest year-on-year increase since 1981.
Overall finished goods prices were pushed up by large increases in food and energy costs, while core finished goods prices recorded their largest rise since last February.
The rising prices are a major risk as the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates to try to avoid a deep US recession.
“The chairman will need to gingerly navigate the waters of appearing focused on the risks facing the economy while not appearing too glib with regard to the obvious inflation threat that the Fed now faces,” said analysts at Action Economics.
Data on housing from the closely watched S&P/Case- Shiller index showed a dramatic decline in home prices last year. Prices fell in every one of the 20 biggest US cities and were on average 9.1 per cent lower in December than a year earlier. “We reached a sombre year-end for the housing market in 2007,” says Robert Shiller, who compiles the report.
Part of the reason for the speed of the decline has been the soaring numbers of foreclosures. Repossessions by banks in January were up 90 per cent compared with the year before, Realtytrac, a research company, said.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008
TL : BERNANKE DILEMMA ?
Ben Bernanke's high-wire act
Fed chief, in first of two days of testimony on Capitol Hill, acknowledges troubling signs about economic growth but also raises concerns about inflation.
By David Ellis, CNNMoney.com staff writer
February 27 2008: 5:07 PM EST
WASHINGTON (CNNMoney.com) -- For Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, running the central bank has become an increasingly challenging high-wire balancing act.
All of Wall Street was watching the Fed chairman on Wednesday when he headed to Capitol Hill to outline the trio of challenges facing the Fed: an economy at risk of falling into a recession, topsy-turvy financial markets and the rising risk of inflation.
"We do face a difficult situation," Bernanke told members of the House Financial Services Committee, marking the first day of his two-day semi-annual hearing on the Fed's monetary policy. "The challenge for us is to balance those risks and decide at any given time which is more serious."
Bernanke's prepared testimony and his comments to lawmakers, however, stressed that the economy remained the central bank's primary concern saying that "downside risks to growth remain."
Markets initially turned higher following the release of his testimony as investors read signals that the Fed was prepared to continue cutting rates, if necessary, to stimulate the economy.
But Bernanke's comments were in line with the Fed's latest economic outlook and remarks he delivered alongside Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson before a Senate panel nearly two weeks ago.
At the time, the two policymakers warned of slower economic growth in the coming year but said they believed the U.S. economy would avoid tipping into a recession, helped in part by the $170 billion economic stimulus package signed by President Bush on Feb. 13 and the most recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
"I don't think he broke a lot of new ground," said Scott Anderson, senior economist at Wells Fargo. "He stuck very close the Fed's forecast and outlook for the economy."
Among Bernanke's biggest concerns recently has been the embattled housing sector. On Wednesday he again said that he expected it to continue to weigh on economic activity in the months ahead.
"Homebuilders, still faced with abnormally high inventories of unsold homes, are likely to cut the pace of their building activity further, which will subtract from overall growth and reduce employment in residential construction and closely related industries," Bernanke said.
Fresh economic data seems to support the view that housing remains troubled. Sales of new homes fell to a nearly 13-year low in January, the Census Bureau reported Wednesday, just a day after a survey on residential real estate revealed that the decline in home prices picked up at the end of 2007
Eye on the consumer
One particularly important issue that the Fed chairman touched on Wednesday was the health of the consumer.
Bernanke acknowledged a significant slowdown in consumer spending as 2007 came to a close, and suggested that with home prices continuing to decline, a falling dollar and rising prices on a wide variety of consumer goods, the consumer could feel an even greater pinch.
"Any tendency of inflation expectations to become unmoored could reduce the flexibility of the [Fed] to counter shortfalls in growth in the future," he said. The Fed will continue to monitor inflation closely in the months ahead, he added.
Bernanke's remarks about inflation, however, marked a key divergence from his most recent remarks, noted Jane Caron, chief economic strategist at Dwight Asset Management, which manages about $70 billion in fixed-income assets.
"He did highlight that inflation pressures have increased," said Caron. "But as investors, is the Fed going to completely take their foot off the gas? How will they manage inflation risks?"
Perhaps the biggest inflation concern for Bernanke was high oil prices, which soared last year and continue to hover near record highs around $100 a barrel. While he said he did not expect such a similar increase in the price of crude during 2008, if oil prices did not moderate that could pose a serious problem for the U.S. economy, Bernanke said.
"If that happens, it will be a very tough situation," he said.
Bernanke also waded into the ongoing credit crisis, urging banks to continue to raise capital so they can continue to be able to lend and provide liquidity to the credit markets. A number of major U.S. financial institutions, for example, have been forced to look to large state-run foreign funds, or sovereign wealth funds, after suffering billions of dollars of losses.
The moves have raised protectionist fears on Capitol Hill, but Bernanke called the investments "constructive."
"I urge banks and financial institution to look to wherever they may find capitalization," Bernanke said.
Economy's warning signs
To help keep the economy from tipping into a recession, the Fed has steadily cut the federal funds rate, which affects a variety of consumer loans, since September. It slashed interest rates twice by 1.25 percentage points in just under a week last month.
Now the growing consensus among economists is that the Fed will cut interest rates by another half a percentage point when policymakers meet again on March 18 and possibly at least once more later this year.
But Bernanke stressed that the Fed would take the wait-and-see approach, saying that policymakers would carefully evaluate "incoming information on the economy outlook."
Plenty of economic reports are due out before the next Fed meeting, including next week's February employment report. The central bank will also get another reading on consumer inflation on March 14.
Lawmakers pressed Bernanke on what other actions he might consider if the economy were to worsen. He responded by suggesting that the central bank's current efforts - including the use of its "discount window" to make direct loans to commercial banks - are working.
"At the moment I'm satisfied with the general approach we are currently taking," said Bernanke
TL : DOES ANYBODY AWARE THAT FED SECRETLY DURING THE MID FEBRUARY 2008 LEND OUT ABOUT USD50.0 BILLION TO FINANCIAL & CREDIT INSTITUTION ? IS NOT REPORTED WIDELY IN ANY PART OF FINANCIAL WEBSITE IN USA !!!!!
TL : WHY ?
TL : SIMPLE ACT OF ' DESPERADO '
Sold my remaining Liondiv @1.46 , Portfolio holding is close to 2% of my total fund ^V^
Dow up another 7 points yesterday, can she manage to stay there any longer tonight n d coming days ? I doubt ^V^
Bro Ben, yes u r right , I guess many of them got their fingers burnt on recent slump , but i believe most of d fundamentalist still enjoy decent gain if their share investment started from end 2006 , only those who just jump in this year r all in deep shit !
Sam....
I need yr advice urgently on the following...
I bought 5 lots of X shares at RM2.00 per share and the current price is RM1.50.
If I swap to Y share 5 lots at RM1.00. Paper wise I do not lose any money. Am I right ?
Dear Fangsiah,
Can you please post just a summary of your usual long long post and then provide the link for those who wants to read more so that your post dun take up so much space. For those who dun wanna read more at least they dun have to scroll down so much to read the next post
Dear Sam,
I see u sold most of your liondiv. Liondiv 2Q results really disappointing coming in with an eps of oni 0.71 cts which when annualised means liondiv in now trading at a pe of 51!.
However lionind had posted a very impressive eps of 17.69cts for the 2Q which when annualised will give a pe of less than 3. However we do not know the details of the profits reported for bith these lion counters as a checked with the Bursa announcement website has shown that both announcements was not accompanied with any details
TL to BZ : Thousand apology. Your comment is noted.
Dear mykee888 ,
Macam tu pun boleh ka ? loss is loss whether it is paper loss or actual loss, once u swap, d paper loss will turn into actual loss ^V^
If someone thought that paper loss or swap loss is not a loss ..well.. if u think by saying that will ease yr pain ..go ahead ^V^
Thanks Sam...
You r right ! Not thinking in the right frame of mind lah.
Hopefully you will organise a yam cha session. No harm meeting more friends. Cheers...
2 BZ ,even with its latest disappointing QE Liondiv 's basic FA is still solid n sound !
reasons y i sold them off r :-
1) Mr Bear is coming , it will sweep all across d board , be it FA or non FA stocks.
2) Holding cost n opportunity cost !
3) Told u guys last year that I will minimise my shares exposure in 08 due to "crash with Tai Shui in 08 " ha ha .
Still d old saying, make less is better than lose $$$$$$!
D only stock I am interested is Masteel , still holding 10 lots @ 1.43 . actually I want to put more on this stock but seeing Mr BEar staring right behind of me , i choosed to stay sideline ^V^
$ifu $am, follow u sold d remaining Liondiv @ 1.46 n hold zero stock in hand. No stock no worry n now could concentrate on d coming All England also going 2 cast my holy vote "Wisely" as mentioned by Ben.
Ben, actually not many people know tat we "Rakyat
" r d Boss n those candidates r our employee. So if we want our country progress well like S'pore practicing meritrocracy, we should know whom 2 vote.
Whatever S'pore did must hv got something 2 do with their economic growth such as d recent win on hosting d Youth Olympics but M'sia... let c, so called First "Astronaut" in d region, Biggest Court, Tallest building bla bla bla... what do we benefit fr these mega projects ?
08-03-08 will decide wether we r going 2 suffer 4 another 5 yrs or going 2 live better.
So, vote WISELY !
TL - Catastrophe
Webster Dictionary : A momentous tragic event ranging from extreme misfortune to utter overthrow or ruin
BEST EXPLAIN AS FOLLOW :
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/19/business/19banks.html?scp=1&sq=MEREDITH+WHITNEY&st=nyt
SIFU SAM,
DID YOU STILL HOLD UR KELADI & SKPRES??????
EAGER TO WATCH UR LATEST PORTFOLIO
IF YOU MIND.
WHERE IS OUR FRIEND 5 STEP FROM KLANG?. HOPE THAT HE IS WELL IN
RECENT SLUMP.
I FOLLOW SIFU TO RETREAT N STAY SIDELINE.
TO BE RELEASE ON 29/02/2009.
PREVIOUS READING : 78.40%
FORECAST : 70.00%
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - United States
Assesses consumer confidence regarding personal finances, business conditions and purchasing power based on hundreds of telephone surveys. Especially valued for its quick turnaround, the University of Michigan Confidence survey is considered one of the foremost indicators of US consumer sentiment. The survey polls a smaller sample of consumers and is less established than the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index.
Declining consumer confidence levels usually accompany any fall income or wages and precede drops in consumer spending. A low or falling U Mich Sentiment value is considered an EARLY INDICATOR of an ECONOMIC DOWNTURN. As a result, investors, retailers and traders alike all watch the figure for insight into the general health of the economy. UMich figures have recently preceded turning in overall GDP.
READ THE CONSENSUS : http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/reports/US/EN/New_York/consumer_sentiment/year/2008/yearly/02/index.html
TL to BZ : YO, YO, YO BROTHER BZ.
THE MOMENT I SAW YOUR POSTING, I STOP ALL MY DESK WORK...EVEN MY MD CALL ME NOW FOR MEETING, I WILL ASK HIM TO WAIT !
LION DIV - EPS DOWN. IS VERY NATURAL AND SHOULD BE DOWN.I AM EXPECTED IT TO BE DOWN. IF IS UP, THEN ONI I THINK SOMETHING WRONG SOME WHERE.
TL NEED TO RESPONSE SWIFTLY TO YOUR COMMENT AS TL DEEM THE REMARK IS UNDULY AND UNFOUNDED WITHOUT BASIS OF UNDERSTANDING THE LION THAT YOU ARE REARING IN THE CAGE.
WE NEED TO UNDERSTAND THE ANIMAL THAT WE ADOPTED AS PET.
THIS LION IS NOT THE SAME LION THAT WE LOOK AT LAST YEAR.
THIS LION IS ENTIRELY THE DIFFERENCE KIND OF ANIMAL.
OKAY. LONG STORY CUT SHORT...IF YOU WISH TO FOLLOW SIFU SAM TO TIDUR, MAKAN & MINUM IN LION DIV, PLEASE DO READ UP MORE.
FOR TL....I WILL ' BANGSAI ' WITH IT TOO.... !!!
TL : CHINESE SAYING, CAN AFFORD TO DIE BUT CANNOT AFFORD TO SICK.
CAN FED ALLOW BANK ON THE RUN ? DEFINITELY NO.
BUT FDIC ' may ' THINK OTHERWISE.
READ http://www.thestreet.com/print/story/10405078.html
Dear Sifus....
Just wondering ah....
If everyone chooses to stay on the side... who is going to do the buying ? How will the market sustain ?
Aiyahh...so eager to see my portfolio ah ?? wait till 2molo lah..nothing much left in my portfolio except Keladi n Masteel .. sad to say my nett gain is around 530K+ which is far below my initial target of 700 K .. really not up to my expectation ! need to improve more in future .
still working out my portfolio, latest by this weekend..stay tune tozer...^V^
Everyone is throw Liondiv ? Y don't wait till the steel price go up 30% 1st?
2 Toezer, latest update as at 28 Feb, total return 299% since 2006 or realised profit of 537K ^V^
Cash VS Shares is now stood at 97.5% : 2.5% or in ratio of 0.975 : 0.025 !
Wait till 2molo to get d final figure. k ?
Will publish out by 5.00pm 2molo b4my last day of blogging ^V^
Stay tune ^
If everyone stay aside, market theoritically remain stagnant because no transaction done.
However traders will sell down shares price to optimise their profit.
SIFU SAM,
THANKS FOR UR REPLY.
HIGHLY CONFIDENT THAT RETREAT IS THE SMART WAY IN RECENT MARKET.
MY LATEST SHARE HOLDING IS ZERO AFTER SOLD LIONDIV YESTERDAY @1.45 AND 1.50 TODAY ( YOU JUMP I JUMP ).
SIFU ,I HOPE TO SHARE MORE UR EXPERIENCE IN FUTURE.
HIDUP SAMGANGS!
HIDUP SAMGANGS!
sam, y liondiv shows poor result but price shoot up 2day ??? y u sell it so early??
any comment on panamy & pbbank...
looks like i am not alone. my exposure = zero...since January. Gonna sleep for 6 months and see what happens...
To sam,
last day of blogging!!?? We sure will miss you! THANK YOU FOR ALL YOUR HELPS FOR THE PAST YEAR. Cheers
Dear fang siah,
Thank you very much for taking up my suggestion.
BTW Liondiv went up yesterday surprising while lionind went down
TL : IS JUST STARTER SERVE..THE MAIN COURSE IS NOT READY YET.
February 28, 2008
Write-Downs Send A.I.G. to $5 Billion Loss
BYREUTERS
American International Group, the world’s largest insurer, swung to a large fourth-quarter loss, hurt by a write-down of derivatives exposed to bad mortgage investments.
A.I.G. said on Thursday its fourth-quarter loss was $5.29 billion, or $2.08 a share, compared with a profit of $3.44 billion, or $1.31 a share, in the year-ago quarter.
A.I.G., a multi-line carrier offering property, commercial and life insurance, said its adjusted fourth-quarter loss, which excludes capital gains, losses and hedging activity, was $3.2 billion, or $1.25 a share.
In the year-ago quarter, New York-based A.I.G. earned $3.85 billion, or $1.47 a share, from operations.
A.I.G. said the quarter included a pretax charge of about $11.12 billion for a net unrealized market valuation loss related on its credit default swap portfolio.
The Associated Press
updated 1:15 p.m. ET Feb. 28, 2008
WASHINGTON - President Bush said Thursday the country is not recession-bound and, despite expressing concern about slowing economic growth, rejected for now any additional stimulus efforts. "We acted robustly," he said.
TL : YES, U ARE RIGHT MR BUSH. WE ARE NO WHERE NEAR RECESSION. EVERYTHING FALL INTO PLACES NICELY...EXCEPT A LITTLE LITTLE BIT OF INFLATION RISK, MARKET HOUSING PRICE SLUMPING TO YEAR RECORD LOW....GDP SLOWEST IN HISTORICAL LOW, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX HITTING LOWEST POINT FOR YEARS, FINANCIAL & BANKING SECTOR WRITEDOWN A FEW DOLLARS EACH QUARTERS....WELL.....IS NOTHING GREAT.....YO YO YO.....IS CERTAINLY NOT RECESSION....JUST SLOWDOWN ONI.
TL : YES ! YES ! YES !....i have predicted correctly this round !
TL : DOW JONES DOESN'T NEED EITHER CITIGROUP & BANK OF AMERICA TO HAVE A RUN.......any bank in any small kampung will send Mr Dow to HOLLAND STREET !
Fed Chairman: Some Small US Banks May Go Under
BERNANKE CONGRESS ECONOMY INFLATION FEDERAL RESERVE FED
By CNBC.com With Reuters and APCNBC.com
| 28 Feb 2008 | 11:26 AM ET
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that some small U.S. banks might go under during the current stress prompted by housing market problems, but the U.S. bank system overall remained solid.
"I expect there will be some failures,'' Bernanke told the Senate Banking Committee, referring to smaller regional banks who became heavily invested in real estate.
His comments caused a selloff in the stock market and a rally in the bond market.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/23390252
See you Sam,
mmm should be uncle Sam.
What you do with your cash, FD ( seem very low interest leh, buy gold-Kijang and put inside your house seem good fens shui wor, ^_^)
Anyway wish you good luck, and chat with you in the next Bull-run hope fully by 2009.......
I still holding on Keladi, LionDiv and Magnum........
Hello bros n all... Y liondiv up 7 cts depsite its latest QE ? well.. someone already knew d QE b4 she publish it out, u can see her coming down from 1.90+ to as low as 1.38 ^V^ that's y william cheng sold in big block since Dec 07, next time..if we see its boss selling in big block.. u shld know what to do . just like Bjcorp, GS n VT bought Bjcorp in big block ( Really big one) 4 past 2 months.. hints ? good QE on its way ?
About cease blogging, well.. I will only cease my SHARES blogging , but still I can chat with u guys here 4 other matter, politic, sport , women , IT..whatever u like..ha ha
FYI, as agreed by TL n Ben , they will take over my shares blog from 2molo onwards, feel free to seek 4 their advice in particular "shares Tips" ! ha ha..Ben n TL..make sure u dont bring our fellow members 2 holland !!ok ? ha ha
Where I put my money ? wanna 2 know ? Have u heard about John King ? pay a visit to John King Egg Tart in Pavilion, try it out n give me d feed back , tell d truth ok ?
$ifu $am, r u telling us u r d BOSS of John King Egg Tart ? Wow ! tat's great ! sure i'll "Ka kwan" ur shop.
Masteel"s Qe will be published by this noon, it is too good to be refused, added another 10 lots of Masteel @1.48, total 20 lots in hand @ avg cost of 1.455.
Cash vs Shares is now stood at 95% vs 5 % .
I am d boss or share partner of John King ? ha ha u guess lah.. fyi, one of d big boss of John King is my best friend ^V^
MR FED : YES, I DO.
Bernanke gives nod to recession, without saying word
Thu Feb 28, 2008 4:37pm
WORD FROM THE HORSE MOUTH : .......speaking before Congress this week, the Fed Chairman held true to his vow for greater transparency, predicting that economic growth, which slowed sharply in the fourth quarter of 2007, would not return to normal levels until at least 2010...
TL : For more......
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN2859469420080228?sp=true
Uncle Sam got vouchure for Tart ar. ^_^.
Volume in Pavilion may not so great leh, unless you offer quality food with premium price ^_^
Anyway all the best again.
sam, i know one of d staff in john king, will check on yr real identity one day since u r d boss's friend. maybe i just sit nxt to u eating egg tart. but, don't worry, i am not d TA buggers that wanted to hunt u down, just curious who r u ??
anyway, good luck to sam & all d gangs, hav a very good time in this blog, learn a lot of share trick from sam & other sifu...
just like to say :: good luck everybody, nice knowing u all, lastly, sam, if u decided to come back, just let know again, cos u jump, we jump.....
to ben, yr tebrau not doing very well lately..
Ha ha... perhaps u should ask him , who is d long hair specky guy ? that's my best friend ^v^
GUYS, ADDED ANOTHER 10 LOTS OF MASTEEL @ 1.49 ON 4.59PM...
I AM DAMN SURE, MASTEEL'S EARNING WILL BE ANOTHER FLYING ONE ! LET SEE WHETHER I AM RIGHT OR NOT !?
TOZER..STAY TUNE, MY PORTFOLIO WILL BE PUBLISHED ANYTIME FROM NOW... LATEST BY THIS WEEKEND ^v^
$ifu $am, follow u 2 buy Masteel but only managed 2 grab 2 lots @ 1.49. not bad, up 6 cents. Hope will go up further on Monday.
Thanks 4 tis small gain on ur last call of ur last day of stop blogging. will buy more egg tarts then 2 support John King, Ha !
aiya sifu sam,
i also planning to buy masteel la...bloody maybank account kept freezing..
maybe not my luck to grab that 6 cent gain loh...
will lock in on monday...1st thing in the morning before it go sky high
Hey Tailow,
Already cut loss on Tebrau and Equine 3days ago. Realised 5digits losses. Bloody hell, really stabbed by Badawi, injured badly. :{
Currently still holding ECM, DPS and Bjcorp. Will consider to cut DPS next week.
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