^V^
After 13 months of blogging , I have decided to cease "SHARES" blogging with effect from today . Sun Tze art of law said :- When there r no 天時 n 人和 ,it is time 4 us to retreat ! ( further more, year of rat is not a good year 4 me ) save yr bullets n energy 4 d next bull run ^V^
As it can be seen from my portfolio , 4 past 26 months, my total realised profit stood at RM538,000.00+ or 299% return which is below my initial target of RM700 K ! seems like there r more rooms 4 me to improve my investment skill ( Sorry !definitely not TA skill ! Ha ha )^V^
As known n agreed by TL n Ben , they will take over my shares blogging from now onwards but make sure u guys do yr homework b4 u follow their calls ! k ? TL n Ben, make sure u dont bring them to d place called "HOLLAND" ! ha ha..just joking only ! I hv 100% confidence on yr FA skill , proven n they said best in Singapore n JB , some said in BATAM also ! ha ha ha
Lastly, I would like to dedicate one favourite cantonese song to u guys esp those TA buggers :-
D song named "ASK ME = 问我 "
Enjoy it >>
问我欢呼gain有几多
问我shares gain有几多
我如何能够
一一去数清楚
问我点解会高兴
究竟点解要Happy
我笑住回答
讲一声 我系我
无论我有百般对
或者千般gain
全心去承受甜果
面对世界一切
那怕会如何
全心保存真的 FA
问我得到有几多
其实得到不必清楚
我但求能够
一一去数清楚
愿我一生去到终结
无论历尽几许风雨
我仍然能够讲一声 我系我
SAM笑住回答讲一声 我系 我我我.. 我我我我..我我
Thank you thank you i love u all !
^V^ samgoss
4 those who cant read chinese , visit d below web >>
http://www.qishi.com/m/65282.htm
http://www.56.com/u55/v_MTc1MTk4NzY.html
180 comments:
Woww ! Masteel lastest QE jumped 53% ! cyt..fatt tatt looo $$$$$$
4 qtrs = 31cts , PE = 5 ! its future earning looks bright from now till end 09 , u see what i see $$$$ bro !
bro sam,
thanks for the sharing
was wondering when you'll be sharing your writeup on FA investing
guess you'll now have time to do so
hope to see your FA investing writeup soon
g'luck and 128 888 2u n all
no worry sam .. u will always in our list ..
vote for BN, vote for DAP? but i will vote for SAMGOSS.
Well, is already proven on your FA track records .. but i still miss out your call to buy masteel today.
hope i can get few lots before it shoot up again ....
yes, u're right if there is no 天時 n 人和 is time to retreat anyway this year is also not my year so better save up some bullets before crying also no tears.
Sam, congras to your masteel. Really shame to be named to takeover your blog because just got burned on the GE themeplay stocks. Even I myself is doubting my own creditworthyness. :{
TL, I guess you are the best person to takeover the blog though. ^_^
Bjcorp just announced revision of takeover plan of nexnews by reducing ICULS price to RM0.65 expire a day before GE. As a result, strong support of prices is expected at least RM1.30 (on the basis of 2 ICULS to 1 Bjcorp) of course offeree may convert by tendering 1 ICULS + RM0.50 in cash. But I doubt the likelyhood of cashing out in current share market condition. Let's see is my analysis correct or not, just to gain back my creditworthyness. ^_^
SIFU SAM,
AT THIS MOMENTS DOW DOWN >200 POINTS I FEEL COMFORTABLE ABOUT THE DECISION I HAD MADE.
TONIGHT I CAN SLEEP WELL ALTHOUGH DOW SLUMP IN THE FUTURE.
KEEPING THE BULLET N ENERGY FOR THE NEXT BULL RUN N ACCUMULATE THE GOOD FA STOCK.
THANK SAM FOR UR ADVICE N HAPPY
RETREAT.FYI I'M ALSO BORN IN YEAR
HORSE....SO RETREATLAH...
MY EMAIL ADD taozer878@yahoo.com
KEEP IN TOUCH.
PLEASE WELCOME UR TL,BEN & TAILOW
TO TAKE OVER SAMGANG.(TO TO CHI KOW)....zzzzzzz
wah sam...somehow i get very motivated!!! ur pic..u inspired me more than donald trump haha.
btw where is john king? i wanna try also la
hope u will be back to guide us on the next bull run..
SAM,
YOUR BLOG IS INFORMATIVE & ENTERTAINING. A GREAT BLOG.
THANK YOU FOR SHARING YOUR EXPERIENCE AND THOUGHT.
HOPE YOU WILL BE BACK SOON!
KC
Hello bros n all..thx 4 yr support, vey much appreciated ^V^
If u guys trust me.. retreat n stay sideline is d most ideal stratergy ! u may ask me why i still jumped in n buy masteel despite d negative outlook of dow n regional mkt ? well..first :- Masteel is too good in term of PE, future earning n NTA ! if not bocs of d pending sub prime n US recession , i will surely put at least 100 lots on her !
Second, with d history high of crude oil , commodities r tends to soar higher , steel , coco , bean ,plantation, iron , rubber n ... r ready to reach 4 another high, that's y I choosed masteel ^V^
Though I bought in some masteel but d quantity that i purchased is only minor which stood less than 5%of my total fund, i still believed cash is king in time to come !
For those who followed my advice to sell off yr shares last 2 weeks, u can sleep very well now even with 315 points plunged by DOW yesterday night ^V^
Oppps...sorry i cant talk much about shares anymore..this is my last comment n dont forget to retreat from KLSE !
U will soon know d beauty of "cash is king " !
haha hohoha ha ha ha
Just cannot stop laughing .
You pretend to know a lot about FA. But look at you - "horse doesn't know his face is long". You are inherently a speculator based on TA......
Where is RCE Loss and others not display in your list. Just like typical chinaman (you are not even qualify to be one) hide the mistake huh.
Good that you stop blogging bcos you will save some others lots of confusion. Hope you still keep plenitude, cos that is good share. Ha, you likely to have sold it to CUT Losses . hahahahahahahahahaha
What no comment on you Ranhill Utilities Berhad lossessssss.....
You are a joker.................
Blogging is Only for those who lie to himself.
You half a million profit like quarter million at the very best. And based on your previous year lost, you only probably make even, that why you pull outto take a break and come back when it is bear market...
You will miss the bullrun and hit a bear.
Well, people like you are typical old fashion speculating Malaysian men who think they know best.
Making money during bull run is nothing to boast about, making money in a bear market, now that is something.
I bet you will not publish my comment. You will be thankful that some one correct you. I will charge a million dollar for that advice
David..oh david... why feel so sour about my achievement ? ha ha..I adopted TA 4 my shares investment ? point it out my TA method if u can ? any RSI, bollinger band, macd adopted by me ? ha ha...
Ranhill, RCEcap n Plenitude ? oh my god ! seems like u dont know how to read excel files ! OMG RM7,700 profit gain from Ranhill u called it loss ? ha ha .didnt i put it all up there ? blind ? didnt i made calls b4 hand n published them out b4 hand also ? what a pity ^V^
Break even ? ha ha if u think by saying that will ease yr pain n make u feel better..pls go ahead kid ^V^
Ignornance bias wont make u look a little smarter..wake up kid ^V^
anyway, d attached song is specially dedicated to u ! jgn marah yah ? ha ha
U doubt i dare not to post out yr comments ah ? ha ha... post it out is to show d world how sour TA buggers r seeing FA followers still making tones of $$$$ in bear mkt . sour ? well well well... without yr sour comments n contrast of TA failures , We wouldnt know d beauty of "fundamental" !
Ha ha..k enough guys... will not going to comments anything more about shares.
David kid, this song is dedicated from me to u , ask someone to translate 4 u if u dont understand chinese ! u will feel even sour if u understand what it means >> jgn marah yah ? ha ha
问我欢呼gain有几多
问我shares gain有几多
我如何能够
一一去数清楚
问我点解会高兴
究竟点解要Happy
我笑住回答
讲一声 我系我
Hey Sam, just ignore this small ant. Just can't stand what he is accusing. I believe he must have followed you and over stubborn to cut loss when you have advised to do so.
David, why do you follow Sam if you do not believe him? You just make yourself like an idiot to accuse someone who has proven result, you should blame your own greediness. Beside, you may choose not to visit this blog if you are not happy about what samgangs is discussing here what?
get loss, david. u r not welcome here...
this is a place for people to seek knowledge & hapiness, so pls get loss if u r making some stupid accusation here...
sam is not GOD, so we treat him as a brother, like d one in yr house. so stay away if u don't like this blog, pls, pls..u r wasting our time to read yr comment.. david, do u think u just look like a stupid idiot..
got 90% of my share out , so definitely can sleep properly now....
btw, i'm also new to all this investment vehicles.
as a rookie, i look at TA..but david, u cannot admit FA is not helpful.
most ppl says a combo between these 2 is best..but never ever forget about FA. it's very very 'fundamental' knowledge.
p/s btw, i'm still a TA guy..but learning extremely hard on FA. so just drop by learning from all bros.
Hi Sam,
Still remember the advice you gave to me, to swap from mahsing to liondiv. Am I still worthy to do it or like what u said, hold cash (to sell all the shares).. thanks and appreciate...
GK
Ha ha talking about china man... we can see u r chinese from d way u wrote "horse doesnt know his face is long ", what is so shame of being china man ? u feel shame ? OMG, u feel shame of yr skin color n calture for being a china man ?so what race u want us to classify u as ? Mat Salleh ? white man ? african ? or indonesian ? do u know how to write d word "SHAME" ?
If u feel shame of yr race , this show u know nut about China history esp d glory of Tang n Han dynasty ! let me give u some confidence for u to lift yr head up among d others lah kid ^V^
1)During Tang n Han dynasty, china contributed 2/3 of world GDP ! even d mighty US cant even get close to it !
2) D great book of Tzun Tze Art of war has been endorsed by d world as "MUST READ N D BEST ART OF WAR BOOK " !
3) D 10 wonders of d world , 2 located in China !
4) D first nation which adopted currency note for trades way back in Sung dynasty !
5) D first country which came out with parlimentary n examination system !
6) Find out yrself , Who r those top students in SPM n STPM over d years ?
N more....
Of course all these r history , but based on d rapid economy growth of China n its overall performances , anyone dare to say she will never overtake US by end of d century ?
Still feel shame of being CHINA MAN my dear David ? ha ha... wake up kid !
If there is reincarnation after death, i wish i can be CHINA MAN again in my next life !
Yah b4 i forget , Yr parents , ancestors.. r they not "china man "also ? this is what u called " horse doesnt know his face is long " ha ha ha ..u r actually referring to u YRSELF !
I am not saying CHINA MAN is d best among all , but one thing 4 sure , being a Malaysian chinese ,china chinese , or what ever chinese is definitely a "PROUD " !
Jgn marah yah ?
Dear Bro Sam,
I understand your reasons why u say u will stay mostly aside till the next bull run but what I dun understand is why you have to stop blogging about shares. You can still comment on the FA of good counters althu you may not take positions on these counters
Just to drop a few word to thanx $ifu $am for all the guidance given. I have also sell all my share last week. Too many bad news.
I have try the tart but the one i try is in 1U. I like the durian flavour.
Lastly, good bussiness ya.
Hope to C $ifu will become active again.
$ifu $am
Dont leave this blog
Hoping that u will come back after the year of the rat
I think most of us hoping that day will come
Sam....
This blog has been the best that I have seen so far.
Yes,, there were times in which mistakes were made but throught it all I think we had shared a common place here be it for advise or friendship.
Thank you and my god bless you !
Thanks 4 yr compliment Myke888..well, whether it is good or bad.. is not up to me to judge, but one thing 4 sure , results speak all esp u r involve in SHARES blogging.
Dont worry guys, when time is right n if i ever find a stock that giving me super opportunity like ijmwb @0.38 or Resorts @ 4.88 (B4 shares split ), I will definitely let u ppl know.
Yah b4 i forget , as known 2 u , talk is free , dont follow those bloggers who has no say b4 hand track records, esp d one whose asked ppl to buy China Call warrants last year , really pity for those who followed his china dolls buy !u should know who i refer to ^V^
Besides d old investsmart, there is another fundamental blogger by d name of KC , this guy is not bad, he has say b4 hand proven records !
Follow wisely dudes ^V^
TL : TO ALL SAM HARD CORE FANS OUT THERE. TAKING OVER SIFU SAM BLOG NEVER CROSS MY MIND FROM THE FIRST DAY TL " CHOONG CHUK KONG WU " AFTER LAPSE FOR FEW YEARS. IN CHINESE SAYING, ONE MOUNTAIN IS NOT ABLE TO HOUSE 2 TIGERS.
TL IS SATISFY THAT SIFU SAM GIVE TL A SMALL CHANCE TO EXPRESS MY VIEWS ON THE STOCK MARKET IN HIS BLOG.
NGOR WAI YAN-YAN, YAN-YAN WAI NGOR
THE ULTIMATE SELL SIGNAL
Commentary: Why does the FDIC need more bank examiners?
By Bill Donoghue, MarketWatch
Last update: 8:19 p.m. EST March 2, 2008
SEATTLE (MarketWatch) -- The clues are piling up: this is not a good year to be investing based on wishful thinking. I'm not a perma-bear, parsing the fine print, but I can read the writing on the wall about chronic economic crises.
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is planning to beef up its division of resolutions and receiverships, which handles failed banks, by 40% this year. The division currently has 233 employees. Considering that only three banks failed last year, why do they need more examiners?
For now, the FDIC is looking to bring back 25 retired employees with experience in the bank closures of the 1980s and 1990s. No, it's not just a reunion of hard-nosed accountants who closed banks and savings and loans in notorious Friday night raids and liquidated their assets.
This is a real search for tough, experienced "lone rangers," who set upon a bank or thrift institution on a Friday to take over as much of the assets as possible and open the following Monday with full assurances for insured depositors and firm answers for uninsured depositors. The latter group will get 100% on their insured deposits, probably 50% on the uninsured portion and "well, we can talk about it, and we'll send you some more later."
This week Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke put it bluntly: "There probably will be some bank failures." Regulators have some real work ahead of them. The FDIC had 76 banks on its problem bank list at Dec. 31, down from 136 problem banks in 2002 and 213 banks in 1990. This past year's three failures were the first since 2004. Apparently the FDIC expects to have a busy year.
The FDIC's challenge means you should confine your bank accounts to insured deposits exclusively. Other safe harbors are Treasury-only money-market funds, money funds owned by large institutions (even banks) and maybe short-term Treasury bills.
The FDIC is staffing up. It's time to rethink your investments.
hi bro Sam,
may i know KC's blog address? thanks
Buffett Says US Economy Essentially in a Recession, Expects Tough Ride for Insurers
OMAHA, Neb. (AP) -- Billionaire Warren Buffett said Monday that the U.S. economy is essentially in a recession even if it hasn't met the technical definition of one yet.
Buffett said in an interview with cable network CNBC the reports he gets from the retail businesses his holding company owns show a significant slowdown in purchases.
The chairman and CEO of Omaha-based Berkshire Hathaway Inc. said millions of people have also lost equity in their homes because home prices have dropped.
The technical definition of a recession most economists use is two consecutive quarters of negative growth in the nation's gross domestic product.
"I would say, by any commonsense definition, we are in a recession," Buffett said on CNBC.
But Buffett said it's not clear how far the recession will go because that is difficult to predict.
The technical definition of a recession most economists use is two consecutive quarters of negative growth in the nation's gross domestic product.
On Thursday, the Commerce Department reported that the gross domestic product increased at a low 0.6 percent pace in the quarter that ended Dec. 31.
In the July-September quarter, the economy grew at a brisk rate, 4.9 percent.
Gross domestic product measures the value of all goods and services produced in the United States and is the best barometer of the country's economic health.
A survey released last week by the National Association for Business Economics showed that 45 percent of economists are predicting a recession in 2008.
Buffett's appearance on television came on the heels of his annual letter to shareholders, which he released Friday along with Berkshire's 2007 financial report.
In the letter, Buffett predicted that the insurance industry will see lower underwriting profit margins in 2008 because premium prices are down, and the industry's luck will certainly change.
"It's a certainty that insurance-industry profit margins, including ours, will fall significantly in 2008," he said. "Prices are down, and exposures inexorably rise. Even if the U.S. has its third consecutive catastrophe-light year, industry profit margins will probably shrink by 4 percentage points or so.
"If the winds roar or the earth trembles, results could be far worse."
Buffett said Berkshire's insurance group, which includes GEICO, reinsurance giant General Re and several other firms, generated $2.2 billion net income from insurance underwriting in 2007. That's down from the previous year when it posted a $2.5 billion underwriting profit.
Berkshire owns more than 60 subsidiaries including insurance, clothing, furniture, natural gas, corporate jet and candy companies. Berkshire also has major investments in such companies as Coca-Cola Co. and Wells Fargo & Co
Sam,
have a good break, man. sure will be different when don't have your "straight-forward-no crap-comment" to read about anymore. cheers, man!
Hi guys n all.. sorry to say i will not comment anything on shares anymore ^V^ mkt is heading south n more to come ! now u guys started to understand what I means by "Cash is king " !
U want any shares tips, stratergy or advice ..pls refer to TL , Ben or tailow..
no more shares comments from me..ok ?
Ben , TL n tailow..time for u guys to show hand ! ha ha ha
I notice that Warren Buffett company - Berkshire Hathaway
is currently trading at PE 15+-
Do u think is wise to buy when it drop to PE < 10?
I think most of us may not afford to buy BRK-A which is traded at USD135k per share now but we can buy BRK-B which cost USD4.5K per share now.
today my finance lecturer teach my class about PE.he said higher PE ratio means higher growth and less risk than low PE..i just laugh deep in my heart hahaha
Election Commission chairman said "Indelible ink will not be used on polling day !" c, whatever reason it is, tis show how inconsistant our government's policy is. Could tis b d reason y KLSE plunged >2% in d morning session while other asian market drop merely <1% or bcoz investors worry BN would not b able 2 performe well like what thay did in 2004 election.
$ifu $am, no share market 4 u, what abt All England ? Hoping tat d final will b between Lee C W n Lin Dan. Since u r so "informative" wondering if u know where 2 buy d DVD related 2 badminton played by Yang Yang, Chow Jian Hua n those stars in 80s n 90s coz we used 2 c DVD of Soccer n other sports in those yrs but not badminton.
Hello 118 , yes looking forward 4 d match between lin dan n L C W . hopefully L C W can be crowned this year . as 4 election..well.. BN will definitely win though she cant achieves what she has done in past election ! since u know they will surely win, n oso u know there r so many unfair incidents happend over d years , my advice :- Check n balance ^V^
Wowww... as expected , london bridge is falling down, falling down , falling down..ha ha.. 2 those TA tai chek kong fellow, see ? do i need to use TA for exit point ? Pity those so called TA sifus for calling ppl to buy in past 2 weeks , ha ha... yr TA never warns u not to do trades during bear mkt meh ? unless u short d mkt..otherwise..d more u buy d more u die in bear mkt.
Come back to badminton,bro..visit d below web .. u can find yang yang , zhao jiang hua, morten frost , han jian n liem swee king there >>>
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t6Wfe6JbRow&NR=1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPCVuvvBytE
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vLI-0Xt5Yu0
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vb7dUQpVu78&NR=1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j64LUqHjWZs
2 Mohd..how much u paid 4 d course ? I dont mind to ask CYT to teach u d basic of FA with half of d fees that charged by yr letcurer ..right cyt ?
High PE= high prospect ? no wonder someone called to buy gpacket @ >4.20 with PE >30 lah....
One simple question for u to ask yr letcurer >>
ask him :-
IBHD current price =0.975 , EPS =2.03 , PE= 48 Damn high !
Ask yr letcurer about ibhd, ibhd stood at PE= 48 , ask him is IBHD stand for good future growth /prospect n worth to buy at current level ?
Let me know next week ..ok ?
Check yrself d PE for all d china call warrants 's mom as at sep 07 ? now u know y ppl lose so much in Gpacket n all d china dolls ?
sam, i guess u might b quite free right now, want to join "rocket", we need people like u to strengthen our chinese party, we have people like : jeff ooi n many more... u can really shine here...
want me to send u d 'form'?? or maybe u prefer not to get involve in politics...
rocket will fly high this time especially in penang....
happy voting
Bro sam, i have only gratitude and
appreciation for your unselfish guidances in the past. Lot of people ask you to stay but i think the decision is your exclusive right and
i respect it.
btw, i wish you all the best and good
health.
Goog morning $ifu, really thanks 4 d badminton website. I watched till midnite last nite n just wondering what r those players doing now. Watching Lim Swee King in action remind me of my first visit 2 Stadium Negara witnessed his easy win over our 1st single Soh Swee Leong many years ago!
Also, if not mistaken, Taufik is Lim Swee King's nephew. I find tat d speed of d players now is much more faster compared 2 those players in d old days.
Again, thanks n i really enjoy d website.
2 118..no need to thanks..u r welcome. pity koo n tan, lost their first match to d Japanese.. did u noticed that when ther played with japanese..they always lose.. when they played with indonesian, most of d time they won !
Tailow.. thanks 4 yr invitation.. as u know..i am not interested in politic , for me politic is dirty , like old saying , D most dirty "P" in this world is women 's "P" n Politic ! but too bad , man like to play it ! ha ha , ...
Guys, just my 2 cts , Politicians r all d same , once they r in power , they tends to be corrupted , look at philiphines , all of them said they r anti corruption, once they in power..From Ramos, estrada up to Aroyo ! all d same ! never forget d stupid taiwan president Chen Swee Bian also , he committed to fight corruption n named himself as Mr Clean b4 he was elected as president, ha ha what happened to him now ? d most corrupted president in d world !
Same goes to Malaysia , how sure r u that Pas , DAP n keadilan " tak akan makan rasuah :??? u sure ? once they r in power, trust me..they r d same ! if u think I am pro BN..u r very wrong ! i support no parti , use our intelligent to vote , as i said..we must hv check n balance in Malaysia !
Still remember d one whose said he is Mr clean ? what happened to him now ? dont blame him , if one day, u becomes d leader in power , u will do d same also ! this is human nature, we cant change it , what we can do is deny their majority !
Dont trust politicians ? all r d same!
$ifu, i agree v ur point on politics but there r good leaders too like d late n current Chinese prime Minister Zhou En Lai n Wen Jia Bao.
As 4 badminton, i notice tat Japanese pair has improved a lot. U know y, coz their coach is Pak Joo Pong. I'm sure b4 olympic, we will b surprised by d fantastic performance of d japanese doubles or even d current All England. Lets wait n see.
As 4 our doubles, ha ha consistancy still their main problem.
Guys, ask yrself, if u r in power , will u not be corrupted also ? touch yr heart n answer ! as a minister or deputy minister, how much they get ? salary around 6 to 10 K only..come on... i think most of u guys make more than them ! since u know they dont aim 4 d monthly salary then what else they targetted ? ha ha..u guys know very well mah !?
Think..think ! Yes , i do agreed there r few good candidates out there who r good n really giving service in good faith , but..how many of them in percentage ? tell me ?
Our leaders always asked us to buy national car ! go to their hse n see , what cars they r driving if not BMW , merze n Audi !??
Our chinese leaders even worst ! He is representing chinese , find out yrself which primary school they send their childs to ? u tell me u will fight all out for d chinese school but u yrself sending yr childs to non chinese school !?? come on !?? It is just like one asking ppl to buy Proton but he himself buying non proton car ! u trust this type of ppl ?
Bros..If i ask u ppl to buy Ibhd but i hold none of them ! can I be trusted ?
Vote wisely dudes ^V^
I agreed with what Sam says; vote wisely and not vote for the party is vote for the people who fight for us.
No matter he/she is BN, DAP; PAS, PRK or … the most thing he/she can really deliver something to social community it will be enough.
hi, benjami. Suprisingly that u loss like hell. if i'm u then i will stop invest in stock market as felt disappointment :(
Hi sam,
totally agree with you on the politics view. actually i did participate in the parties activities, i found that their intention of organising the activities are really good, but however, of cos they have the other 'objectives'. perhaps, many of volunteers appear and stand up to help suddenly viewing that 'that person' has slightly higher chance of winning. that's y i feel in this world, we must face the fact. all of them are the same, want some return out of it!!!
Sigh!!!
sam,
just talked with my lecturer.he said its just for exam only.actually he knows high pe can be high risk too.With his 15 years exp in banking,i knew he was hiding something haha.but its alright,my class just learn basic finance only.everyone dunno about finance.he just want to teach the basic and dont want to confuse students if he goes deeper hehe.
Herbert, I dont think ben loss like hell in d recent slump , overall he is still making.. if one made 1 million in year 07 n lose 30k in recent slump, how can u concidered that as loss like hell ?
D one who loss like hell is those who bought china dolls @ KLCI 1,450 last Oct 07 , all down to zero cts upon expiry ! am i not correct ? if they said they bought it for trading , why didnt they post out their disposal price ? when price down to almost zero then only they said..i hv sold it long long time ago with little losses ..ha ha macam ini gua atau lu pun boleh lah ha ha ha..am i not correct ?
Haha, herbert, I don't mind being named as lose like hell. As long as I know how much in my pocket will do. ^_^
Seriously speaking, I am quite dissapointing of how KLSE performed before GE. I understand that overall major market is heading south, but then by common sense GE related counters should be heading upwards to create happy GE feel. Too bad, I made a wrong analysis, somemore these GE counters are all very high PE ratio = high risk. As a result, I have to realise my losses before it deteriorated.
2 Mohd.. it is wrong also even he said 4 exam only ! since he know it is high risk @ high PE , then macam mana dia dapat high PE = high growth ? high growth is definitely not high risk !
make it simple here >>
Low PE < 10 with stagnant growth = low risk with not bad return.
Medium PE around 15+ with stagnant growth = medium risk with so so return.
Medium PE around 15+ with very good growth prospect = Manageable risk with very good return.
Low PE <10 with very good growth prospect = low risk with very good return.
high PE >20 with very good growth prospect = medium risk with so so return only.
high PE>20 with lousy return = high risk n u r heading 2 d place called holland !
D question here is how sure r u that d stock u bought is guaranteed good growth prospect ? no 100% right ? therefore..u should go 4 low pe stock n check its past earning records.
Take d above n ask yr letcurer again n tell me what r his views ?
If he agree with d above ..perhaps he should take half of his salary n pay to me..ha ha ha..just joking only.
seeing Vincent Tan buying so many BJTOTO at average 5.41, i guess i am not wrong if i choose to buy at <5.00. Any opinions here? Am i heading to Holland?
Let's comment something on the politic. In fact I promote corruption, It is a method of wealth distribution but provided the person receiving wealth not in power for too long period of time. One classic eg, Sami Vellu has been work minister since 1979. See what happen today? He is filthy rich whiile others of his kind are relatively still in poverty.
In fact corruption allow to speed up the process. It act exactly like a bonus/incentive to motivate ppl to work harder. However, if ppl in power for too long period, ppl tend to take it for granted and no longer motivating to work harder.
That is the main reason why advance countries like US by law stated president can not in power for more than 2 times. This is a good practise. (From the other angle, this prove that even US is worrying on corruption, what do you think of Malaysia?)
The main measurement is whether the person receiving corruption is performing? If he only know talk big and remain in his hibernation mode (sleeping), I doubt he is suitable to be empowered for another chance. So ... pls vote wisely, do not vote for the sake of voting but for youself and your next generation.
SAM,
i like this
"high PE>20 with lousy return = high risk n u r heading 2 d place called holland !".
Probably can sponsor i banner and put infront of Bursa, ... in between the bear and bull status . ^_^
I know lots of ppl will say :- what lah uncle sam..how can u say like that :- let them makan lah..wrong is wrong mah ! ? ha ha..
Come on bros.. this is fact , we hv to accept it ! just like our school head master n teahers , they dont talk about sex to us , they tell us blue film is harmful 2 our moral n bad to watch..but then..they themselves go n watch it secretly ! what a hack !?? my friend 's father is a headmaster of SRJK SUn ??? KL , he shows us plenty of blue videos from his parent 's room ! ha ha.. see ? this is fact ! this is human nature ! they dont say it doesnt mean they didnt do !? they ask us not to do doesnt mean they themselves will not do that also !??
Therefore , if we say , Rasuah is wrong , u can not do that ! do u think we can change it ? do u think they will listen to us n change ? come on come on !??
We all know , watching blue films is wrong ! touch yr heart n ask ^V^
Hv u watch blue film b4 ? be honest guys !
U think our leader never watch b4 ? jgn cakap tengok ..dah buat banyak kali lah...look at Chua Soi Lek lah ! ha ha...
As a health minister , telling ppl do not screw around , must hv healthy life style to avoid aids..ha ha....see ? they tell us not to do that doesnt mean he himself didnt do that !
They said .. i will catch all d corrupted buggers ! ha ha u believe him ?
Malaysia: Citizens Denied a Fair Vote
Bias in Electoral Process Favors Ruling Coalition in March 8 Poll
(New York, March 5, 2008) – Government restraints on expression, assembly and access to state media will deny Malaysians a fair vote in the March 8 general elections, Human Rights Watch said today.
The authorities' manipulation of the electoral process appears aimed to ensure that the ruling coalition maintains its two-thirds parliamentary majority.
"Once again, elections in Malaysia are grossly unfair to the opposition," said Elaine Pearson, deputy Asia director at Human Rights Watch. "Malaysia's ruling coalition is too comfortable with the status quo to allow reforms that would level the playing field."
On March 8, Malaysians will vote for the national parliament. Since 1969, the ruling Barisan Nasional, a coalition consisting of 14 parties, has held a two-thirds majority in parliament, which enables it to amend the constitution at will. Opposition parties currently hold 9.6 percent of the seats in parliament.
--------
BN is the Tai-Lou in Malaysia Now and near future, their network is strong wealty and they can do what they like, sometime when "i'm" down- kena tangkap, my son/daughter will continue to get the benefits..... BN now become a dynasty, pass battons between father-and son business ........
Corruption and continuation for generations...
Well said..well said ben ! precisely ! Look at china , thier corruption rate is much higher than Malaysia but still they can performed better than us ? why ? cos they r capable ! they makan but in d same time they delivered ! unlike here, tahu makan tapi tak tahu kerja !
2 tailow ! I believed premier chu loong chi is a clean premier but as 4 wen jia pao..opmmm... i heard his family members involved in GLC's project also..thus... still a big question mark 4 him to be named as Mr Clean of China !?
2 tech search, Berkshire Hathaway
"s PE around 15+- ? wu yan poh ? ha ha... it is good enough 4 Berkshire Hathaway
selling u @ PE20+ ! 15+- ? u better jump in n buy liao ! since DOW got more downside potential to slump, buy in stages if u interested on Berkshire Hathaway
^V^
Since greed already stick deep in side human gene , who ever we choose will come back d same old type ! what we can do is deny their 2/3 majority , let hv check n balance againts them , though they can still makan also..but at least we hv someone to bark n check on them in d parliament !
Conclusion, I dont blame them 4 being so corrupted, if i am in power like them , i will do d same also ! but please lah Mr Rasuah, u nak makan..boleh..tapi perform sikit lah...boleh ?
Anwar sues Chandra 4 10 mil
Another typical example again ! :-
Chandra said it would be an unmitigated disaster for malaysian should anwar become premier !
Ha ha see? all these politicians got no principle at all ! remember how chandra supported Anwar during "Reformasi" time ?? OMG, he changed so fast ! where is his stand n principle gone ? Chandra said Anwar was racist during his time as an deputy PM , come on Chan, since u know he is such a racist guy long long time ago , why u supported him to fight againts Mahatir in 1999 ? why ?
Anwar is also d same ! I am sure u guys still remember what he did to chinese school when he is in power !
So how now ? since both also cannot be trusted ? well... As known to u , Anwar is a good speaker, he is capable ! we need guard dog in parliament besides Lim Kit Siang n kapal Singh , i am confident no one can beat him when come to debate ! put him in n stay aside for d show !
Once again, u think I am pro opposition ? sorry to say..I am not ! same goes to BN ! make use of them ! we want guard dogs in parliament !
4 those stayed in Pandan area ,, U know who is Ong Tee Kiat"s enemy very well , Sun Tze said:- my enemy's enemy is my friend ^V^
Thus u know who to vote in parliamentary seat of Pandan .
I know Anwar wont be able to contest in this GE , i am very sure someone will let go his seat to held another by election 4 him , if that happen , put him in ! make use of his ability to serve our ppl.
Vote wisely ^V^
FYI..Ong Tee Kiat's enemy is also our enemy !
Hence..my enemy's enemy is my friend !
Give u some tip , Ong Tee Kiat 's enemy is not d opposition ! check last year news paper, who is d one he offended !
Vote wisely ^V^
$ifu $am, just imagine if Dow plunge >300pts 2nite n BN 2/3 parliamentary majority were 2 b denied by opposition parties 2molo, what would happen 2 KLSE on Monday ? Ha excitingleh !
Also, 2molo 8.30pm All England live, should Lee enter semi final, hope my heart beat could take it while watching live on election results n All England.
So, let's c what happen 2 M'sia "Day ater 2molo nite"
Good night.
Reply to samgoss: "2 tech search, Berkshire Hathaway
"s PE around 15+- ? wu yan poh ? ha ha..."
FYI, I am referring to the annual report from the official website of Berkshire Hathaway(http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/reports.html)
In page 23, the stated net earning per share of FY07 is USD8,548.
The PE is therefore, 135,000/8,548=15.79
Perhaps I have overseen some important data. Your precious advice is very much appreciated. Million TQ
Today is the judgement day, pls go vote earlier in case raining in the afternoon. ^_^
You may go to here to check out the latest forecasted weather of your area (although it may not be accurate)
http://www.kjc.gov.my
Ideally will be BN lose 2/3 majority while still the ruling party. Otherwise can't imagine what will happen next monday because NTSE already dropped 146points!!
2 techsearch, if i am not mistaken, for past 30 years, berkshirehathaway's average PE is around 25+-, hence buying at PE15+- is definitely a good deal , as i said..since there r more downside potential 4 dow to venture, u should buy in stages ^V^ buy 1/3 at current price n d other 2/3 for dip.
DOW plunged another 145 points this morning , r we heading to 1,250 or 1,200 soon ? ha ha.. u see what i see ^V^
2 118 , today SF is definitely a good one, LCW vc Chen Jin, 70:30 my bet on LCW. same goes to Lin Dan Vs BOACL. Come on Malaysia ! this is d only field we can stand high n shout "Malaysia Boleh " !
sam, u r right, no politicians r good in this world. but look at s'pore, i think they r doing very well & most s'porean appreciate their govt even d world also look up on them, do u agree??
i voted early in d morning, cos rain will come in d evening. we hav a very strong opposition wind in penang here, hope 2 see umno or BN lose 2/3 majority....
sam, do consider, we need people like u to shine in malaysia history for d nxt decade....
enjoy d badminton 2day...
Just back from voting. I doubt BN will lose in the area I voted. Johor still the castle for BN, eventhough I went for opposition this round mainly because of the duplication land title issue faced by my family right now.
Really dissapointing of the performance of the current ruling government. Only 1 word can descript them ---- "SUCKS"!
I have something to say on the Singapore government.
Do you know how they select their minister? They headhunt ppl with capable ability from the MNC or commercial world. Unlike in Malaysia, leader of a political party will be appointed (should be assigned) a minister title in the government irregarded the capability of that fellow. For instance, health, development, tele and communication, transport ministers are the four pre-assigned minister for MCA and Gerakan.
Under such a system, do you think Malaysia can outperform Singapore? But we can't fully blame the current goverment also, because racist problem created this system. Unless the inequality can be removed, otherwise this 分猪肉 system will remain forever.
Ha ha Tailow.. thx again 4 yr invitation , as known to u..1)I am not in Malaysia most of d time, 2) I am not interested in politic at all ! I said what i hv seen , In certain area of china, they r 3 times more corrupted than Malaysia, but i hv to bow down to their ability , they r really good ! may be this is due to d quality of d individual !
We cant compare Malaysia with Singapore , cos d structure of d population is different n also d politic calture !
Lee Kuan Yew born in a wealthy family , his mentality is different, money to him is nothing, what he wants is self sastifaction n pride , he wants ppl to see how capable he was for building up a country which got no resources at all !he set up a system to tackle corruption , once yr espenses does not tele with yr income , action will be taken on u ! unlike Malaysia , Example :- emperor Zakaria ! blind ppl also know where his money came from ! but still no action being taken ! d calture over here is totally different !
We cant demand more from them if d top guys up there still praticing this calture ! sometimes we cant blame them also, when u r in this type of enviroment n calture, there is nothing u can do except joining them , old saying, if u cant beat them, join them !
U can see most of them r still not open minded yet , they need assistance , they need special privillage , as long as they still keep to this type of mentality n calture, i can assure u..u can forget about "CLEAN MALAYSIA", NO WAY !
we do what we can do, d rest , we leave it to god to decide !
Ha ha.. uncle sam talking jesus liaooooo
Congras Tailow, DAP in Penang really "Geng" now only 8.37pm DAP already won 4parliament 17state seats. 3 more to go to takeover Penang State Government.
hurray, hurray, dap -pkr-pas swept penang, now won 21 seats out of 40, will form state govt` 2morrow.....
more seats to be won.....
kelantan also retain their state govt... hurray, hurray,......
BN down , down .. rocket took off now.......
OMG, BN lost Penang, Kedah, Kelantan and Perlis (as per source saying).
Monday share market sure drop more than 50points.
Wise vote ! wise vote ! really out of our expectation ! sweep all d way with big big win ! 50 points so little ah ? ha ha at least 60 points i guess ! those who sold as per my advice.. u will be loughing all d way seeing Mr Bear dancing rock n roll on monday !
cham lo .. i still hav some liondiv in hand :( .. average price 1.7+ .... may god bless me :(
BN lost 5 states ie. Kelantan, Penang, Kedah, Selangor and Perak. (Perlis was a false alarm).
As per politician analyst, Abdullah should step down because the failure facing by the coalition implying it is no longer representing all races.
I think 60points also too conservative already.
Ha! Ha! Bingo! $ifu $am, BN really lost 2/3 parliamentary majority 2 opposition parties. GLC stocks in particular will under pressure 2molo n now is a matter of how many points will KLSE tumble 2molo. $ifu u guess !
Tis time we "rakyat" really show d true colors 2 inefficient ruling party! Malaysians r more matured now! "The Power of the People" has emerged as d winner in tis 12th GE.
But bad news in All England! LCW really disappointed us so as d men doubles. I'm not interested at all 2 watch d final 2nite, what abt u $ifu ?
wow ... market slump 76 point ... shit everything is gonna low low low .. bargain for shop? or still a side ..... !??
THE LAW OF CAUSE & EFFECT ( KARMIC RETRIBUTION ) TAKEN PLACE ON 08 MARCH 2008 WHEN THE CONDITION ARISE AND THE TIME RIPEN. PERFECT TIMING & PERFECT RESULT.
WHAT BARISAN NASIONAL SOW IN THE PAST 5 YEARS, IS PERFECTLY WHAT THEY REAP TODAY !
KLCI DOWN 79 POINTS - ARE WE THERE YET ?
Denial 2/3 done ! hopefully d opposition leaders dont kwai da kwai = "Ghost beats ghost " themselves ! Good bye sam..good bye sam..ha ha I like this song from comedy court ! I wish this song is dedicated to me Sam instead of samy velu ha ha..how nice if i am samy velu with tones of $$$$$ for my retirement fund ha ha ha...
enjoy it >>
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LbBHNRs-yRw
Good bye sam..good bye sam ^V^
5 states out of 11 in West M'sia r now r under opposition parties! Furthermore, Penang, Selangor n Wilayah r well developed states. So, how GLS stocks r going 2 survive ?
hi sam... do u stil holding liondiv? i am thinking to swap most of my stock to liondiv.it is wise to do so? i appreciate your advise very much.
Hello Joe.. Liondiv ? Pls refer to my previous posting ..ok ? check d latest portfolio as per attachment , did u see any liondiv in my portfolio ? if u want my views of Liondiv, pls check it from my old poastings.
Swap.. sorry to say..I hv already ceased SHARES blogging with effect from 29 Feb 08 , no more shares comments from me..ok ? may be TL , tailow or Ben can help u on that ^V^
What sectors or stocks tat we could consider in KLSE under d situation right now (in long term, coz i know 4 d time being we should stay sideline). Genting? PBB?...especially when KLSE plunge 2 certain level.
Any comments fr TL, Ben or Tailow ?
And may b advice on stocks tat might b affected d least under d current political situation.
Thanks.
hi sifu sam i holding onasteel priced 1.35, can you comment about the what strategy should i play for this share?thanks
SIFU SAM,
REALISE THAT CASH IS KING IN RECENT MARKET SLUMP.
I WILL STAY ASIDE AND NOT TO CATCH
THE FALLING KNIFE.
WOW..WOW. WOW.. CI DOWN 100 POINTS
MILLION THANK FOR EVERYTHING...
wah .. market drop 130++ and KLSe emergency suspend no more trading allow .. shit. More shit to come .. cham lo ..
is a 1st time happen in KLSE ..
historical again ..
B4 that election now KLSE ...
ANNOUNCEMENTS
-
BURSA MALAYSIA TRADING HALT - CIRCUIT BREAKER TRIGGERED at 10/03/2008 2.58pm
Trading halted pursuant to the Rules of Bursa Malaysia. The Bursa Malaysia has declined by 10% based on previous days closing value. Trading Resumption date & time at 10/03/2008 3.58pm.
wow! wow! klse.... down... down...
suspend now, hopefully it will stop after reopen, but i guess not....
sam u r wise enough to pull yrself out, we r lucky to follow u, so tqvm.. again tqvm.
i will lose at least 60k if i didn't follow yr word.
ben, ask yr father to cut loss on equine now b4 it is too late......nothing left .
Woww 138 points down n KLSE halted 4 1 hour..yahoooo ! i have saved it down, this is a historical moment, save it down guys ^V^
Tailow wanna 2 thanks me ? no need lah bro.. I am not god lar..u think I know opposition can sweep all d way from Selangor up to Kedah ah ? I called to sell is bcos d maximum life spend for Mr Bull is around 22 months ! not bcos I hv d crystal ball !
Not to frightening u.. my source said 980 is d target in medium term, believe or not ? up to u !
For me...whether TP of 1,400 or 950?..it got nothing to do with me ! I wont bother at all unless it is super dirt cheap price.. (Such as Masteel , PBB , Lionind ,PPB selling to me @ PE2+- ..ha ha..do u think it is possible ? )
Feel good with cash in hand now ? Tailow , u r d cash king !
Use common sense n think..do u think KLSE will climb back to 1,300 in medium term ? all kena burnt already.. all r waiting to sell @ 1,250..or even lower.. how to bounce back ?
More political shows r on its way out ! most of GLC's projects r in northern Malaysia which r now controlled by d opposition, that's y u can see MRCB, UEMworld, Jaks, Gamuda n... falling like nobody biz ha ha... not to say I am black hearted , 2 TA buggers ,u deserve it !
See? do i need to use TA for my entry n exit point ? 2 sour david n pengasus 101 , still think that uncle sam will missed d bull n hit d bear ? need a second thought ? ha ha
never forget also d pending subprime factor.. + d current political situation.. use common sense n analyse.. upside potetial greater than downside or vice versa ?
Think...
u wanna to make some $$$$ on d rebound ? wanna to gain from technical rebound ? DONT DO THAT ! how sure r u that 1,150 is d bottom ? can u ? dont tell me TA can tell that..ok ?..if TA can tell..those TA buggers will tell u to short @ 1,250 last friday liaooo...am I not correct ?
STAY ASIDE ^V^
looking at d current price on most counters, really hand itchy already. but will strongly follow sam's advice, stay aside.
i might ask my gf to change my pin no, so that i can't trade online temporary. ( i can't chop off my fingers , u know...), hahaha...
now, i might plan where to go 4 holiday ...any good suggestion,sam.
Sam, u r really a great guy, jumped out from e market b4 the GE and know what exactly will happen. Well, frankly speaking, I have some lost, and only managed to get out from e sharp knife this morning. Some of my frens told me this morning that this is actually a great chance, e market definitely will rebound. Just wait and see!
I have a few lots of equine@ 2.84, and 10 lots of liondiv@ 1.84. I saw yesterdays plunge and truly understood what you meant by staying aside. Gonna dispose all these shares for whatever I can salvage today.
SIFU Sam,
Really thanks for asking us to hold cash. I throw everything and hold 100% cash on the first day of annoucment of election. Otherwise will suffer at least 35% losses now. Thanks sam! You are the best!
Hope you dont leave us. We need you to sail with us and to beat the tame bear with us!
SIFU Sam,
Really thanks for asking us to hold cash. I throw everything and hold 100% cash on the first day of annoucment of election. Otherwise will suffer at least 35% losses now. Thanks sam! You are the best!
Hope you dont leave us. We need you to sail with us and to beat the tame bear with us!
Tailow, so itchy hand ar?
Now is only a temporary rebound, better sell off your on hand high PE stocks before the real wave come. Really lucky I have disposed off GE related stocks last week. But too bad my dad just disposed off this morning made a loss nearly 100k. That is really killing. :{
Sam you are really good on the timing selection. You guys might have ignore TL, he actually called to retreat before Sam. Correct? ^_^
For those ask for comment of swapping, my advise is don't think about it. Better stay aside and keep your money under your pillow first. Recession will be confirmed if coming qtr US still remain as negative GDP growth rate. Never ever try your luck, anything is possible. Just look at classic example BN's defeat.
haha, god really do his job now...
our klang king zakaria deros( with a big palace) dies of heart attack today.....
check malaysiakini....
Ben, my timing is good ? I dont think so..Mr bear came one month earlier than my date of sell off 28 feb 08 ) it would be perfect if she came after 28 feb 08 ^V^..then i would hv acheive my TP of 700K gain liaooo... anyway, it doesnt matter.. bottom line is still making $$$$, same goes to yr daddy, overall , he still making $$$$ right ?
Tailow..itchy ah ? be patient tailow... take yr time n go 4 holidays lah.. who knows u can get liondiv <1.00 or Bjcorp <0.70 after u come back from holidays !?? ha ha..by that time I am sure u r more itchy lah.. yan yan yan.."Pak Yan Seng Kum " !
Ben, didnt i told u so..I said TL is not a ordinary man , wanna to know where he graduated from ? Harvard , Chin Hwa or may be uni of social society in pudu ? ha ha... u guess lah ^V^
Heart attack bcos of his enemy back in power n his palace will be demolished soon ?
Controversial politician Zakaria Deros dies
Mar 11, 08 10:30am
Former Port Klang assemblyperson Zakaria Md Deros died early today after suffering a heart attack.
He was pronounced dead by a doctor at 2.30am. He was 62.
Zakaria gained infamy in 2006 when he had a run-in with the law for not submitting building plans for his mansion, dubbed as a istana (palace) by his detractors.
A former Klang municipal councillor, Zakaria was found not to have paid the assessment for another property for 12 years, while his family was caught operating an illegal satay restaurant on government reserve land.
He was dropped from the BN line-up for the just-ended general election, replaced by his daughter-in-law Roselinda Abdul Jamil. She however failed to retain the seat.
His mansion has 21 bathrooms and 16 bedrooms, including 11 that occupied by each of his children, as well as a VIP room, three living rooms, a dining hall and a prayer room.
The house also has a swimming pool, several gazebos, an orchard, a two-hole golf lawn, an office, a storeroom, two rooms for maids as well as a wet kitchen and a dry kitchen
***
Though i dont like him , but still I feel sad for his family .
Crossover culture !? any cross over by d PKR or DAP to BN ?
Hopefully this is not BA's culture !
Dear all sifus (sam,TL,Benjamin,Tailow),
I was trying to calculate some ratios for 'Hong Leong Financial Group Bhd' and i found that there are two accounts in the quarterly reports - one for the "group" and the other for the "company". Im confused. Which one should i use to calculate the fundamental ratios??
The same goes to Malayan Banking Bhd, Hong Leong Bank Bhd etc etc etc...... Pls advise....
Thanks thanks... \o/
To Eric, you should take Group. Company here is presented as company level (holding company) only.
Fed Easing Liquidity in Funding Markets
Tuesday March 11, 9:49 am ET
By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer
Fed Announces Further Steps to Ease Credit Crunch
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve on Tuesday ramped up efforts to provide more relief to squeezed financial institutions, a coordinated action with other central banks aimed at easing a global credit crises that threatens to push the U.S. economy into its first recession since 2001
The Fed said it will make up to $200 billion in Treasury securities available to big Wall Street investment houses and banks. The new action is designed to ensure that there is an ample supply of Treasury securities. With strains in financial markets, demand has grown for Treasury securities, considered the safest investment in the world because they are backed by the U.S. government.
The move comes as banks and other financial institutions face cash crunches.
"Pressures in some of these markets have recently increased again," the Fed said in a statement. "We all continue to work together and will take appropriate steps to address those liquidity pressures." The other banks involved are the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank.
The Fed announced the creation of a new tool, called the Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF), geared to provide primary dealers -- big Wall Street investment firms and banks that trade directly with the Fed -- with short-term loans of Treasury securities. They would pledge other securities -- including federal agency residential-mortgage-backed securities, such as those of mortgage giants Fannnie Mae and Freddie Mac -- as collateral for the loans of Treasury securities.
The loans would be made available through an auction process. Auctions will be held on a weekly basis, beginning on March 27, 2008.
The new lending initiative "is intended to promote liquidity in the financing markets for Treasury and other collateral and thus to foster the functioning of financial markets more generally," the Fed said.
The Fed since December has been making short-term loans of cash available to banks through a new auction facility. It has provided $160 billion available to squeezed banks in hopes it will help them to continue lending to individuals and companies.
In addition, the Fed also on Tuesday said it has authorized increases in existing programs called "swap lines" with the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank "These arrangements will now provide dollars in amounts of up to $30 billion and $6 billion to the ECB and the SNB respectively," the Fed said, extending the term of these swap lines through Sept. 30.
Last week, the Fed announced that it would increase the amount of loans it plans to make available to banks this month to $100 billion. At the same time, it said it would make another $100 billion available to a broad range of financial players through a series of separate transactions.
The Fed has been working to pump billions of dollars into the banking system to aid an economy rocked by the subprime mortgage crisis and the severe tightening of credit.
A meltdown in the housing and credit markets has made banks and other financial institutions reluctant to lend to each other, causing a cash crunch. Financial companies wracked up multibillion-dollar losses as investments in mortgage-backed securities soured with the housing market's bust. Problems first started in the market for subprime mortgages-- those made to people with blemished credit histories. However, troubles have spread to other areas.
For short term still uncertain :(
SAM, BEN & TL see if this is ok?
I think Bro SAM got a point. STAY AWAY else u catch more falling knives. I might be wrong but hear out my rant.
US fall is imminent, its already started to show some vital signs. Few hedge funds are already failing. Those who are leveraged and some banks will start to fall with them.
Sub-prime effects are just the tip of the iceberg in my humble opinion about the US economy.
1. Imagine, all of the sudden the price of your house suddenly is only worth 50% of what u initially paid for. Worst yet, your most expensive investment of your lifetime is sucking blood off you as u cant find a tenant to rent it. You cant sell it, cant afford to pay for the mortgages. Same problem with 1/2 of your neighbours. No ones is buying. How do US solve that problem?
If u take into account those write-offs by the banks,its Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) & Collateralized Mortgage Obligation(CMO) write-offs. If u read about CMO, the banks are the ones who get paid first.They're t the top of the food chain. And they are write off that much(Of course, don't believe the full value, they might write off more than the actual for better performance in the future) think about the other funds that has invested in the CMOs too especially those lower tranches. I'll have to say other funds in the CMO will have to declare they're making HUGE HUGE losses. So what's the big deal? These are the institution that borrow money out to the public to make purchases. If they are in trouble making BIG losses and in a credit crunch, what happens? No one is lending, how can they kick start the real-estate? (bank are not give out loans as easy & fast as before.. how to buy house? The house prices dips even more) Its a vicious cycle
At least they're doing something now -
March 11 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve plans to lend up to $200 billion of Treasury securities in exchange for debt including private mortgage-backed securities that have slumped in value as homeowners defaulted on their payments.
2. Hedge funds going bankrupt. Banks are calling in their credits to the hedge funds. As we know, hedge funds are counter parties of many derivatives market. They're the ones who take risk for absolute returns. ie. offering put options and call options, spreads and plenty more positions. So the banks are gonna kill off the hedge funds.. whats the big deal? Well, think of it this way.. there are no more counter parties on the call and put options you buy. so a big percentages of derivatives that is suppose to hedge risk for funds suddenly disappear. Take old example, LTCM(hedge fund) in 1998 (also contributed to our KLCI low) has about 7 bil in capital.. at that time it holds about 1.2 trillion worth of assets in derivatives. Well, no big deal. Now hedge funds are not that leveraged. Slowly and surely as the banks calls back credit, more hedge fund goes bankrupt. More and more of these derivatives that's in the market now will default. I wonder what's the effects.
3. Currency and inflation. US currency is devaluing at a phenomenal rate. In the past 5 years according to Warren Buffet, USD$1 invested in Brazilian Real is worth approximately USD$2 now. US currency will buy less goods and services for every dollar spent. (Dont be too happy, we too are facing this problem.) One more important factor, OPEC SEEM TO TAKE DELIGHT IN SQUEEZING US.
The biggest spender in the world is facing the risk of recession, devaluation of currency, inflation, financial market distress & implosion with no real solution at hand. So what's our potential upside? I'm placing my bet on what SAM says! =) Cash is king & i feel happy holding cash with the market going this way. Thanks SAM (although i dont like the inflation problem)
SAM, BEN, TL any bright ideas on where to park cash? Dont think our fixed rate will get any higher.
TL to Eric
Group - A combination of the company performance + other subsidiaries result
Company - Result of one company.
Example :
YTL Corp : Group result = YTL Corp + YTL Power + YTL Cement + YTL Land
YTL Corp : Company result = Only showing ownself performance
Hope this help U.
TL : ARE WE THERE YET ?
DOW JONES ROCKET LIKE DAP
MR FED PUMP IN USD200B INTO USA MARKET.
KLCI UP FOR 40 POINTS THIS MORNING
TL : ARE U READY TO JUMP ?
TL : VERDICT - RETREAT STILL MY MANIFESTO FOR THE TIME BEING
TL : WHY ?
TL : WILL WAIT UNTIL THE MORE UNCERTAINTY REVEAL ON MALAYSIA POLITICAL SCENE ( GOVERNMENT FORMING IN OPPOSITION STATE ) & USA SUBPRIME BECOME MORE ' DEEPEN ' BUT MR FED TRYING TO PROLONG THE ILLNESS BY INJECTING MORE AND MORE STEROID INTO THE MARKET. WHAT MR FED DOING NOW IS TRYING TO REVIVE A DEAD CAT. SOMETIME HE MAY GET LUCKY ENOUGH TO HAVE DIE CAT REBOUNCE.
TL : FOR THOSE WHO CANNOT TAHAN SEEING ACCROSS THE GLOBAL MARKET OPENING UP CHAMPAGNE CELEBRATING OVER THE ' CRISIS '...TL WISHING YOU ALL THE BEST OF INVESTING.
NGOR WAI YAN-YAN, YAN-YAN WAI NGOR !
For wise ppl to read n think >>>
let me tell u a Sun Tze art of war story .
There was a war between country A n country b , king of country A is not capable but vert good hearted , his deputy 's ability is slighty better than him but full of scandals !
King of country B asked his deputy : should we support deputy of country A to over throw his king ?
His deputy replied " my majesty, pls dont do that , d longer d king of country A stays in power , d better we r , it is easy to tame or beat a sick cat than to beat a lion "
Wise ppl like u all should know what is d hint of this story ^V^
Dear sifus,
Thank you for replying TL and benjamin. That helps a lot.
Cheers!!
\o/
sam, interesting story. definitely we know what u mean, d best thing is that d king (country a)still hav an adviser that always gives wrong idea, and does not win d heart of their subjects....
that will weaken d whole country, but d king is still very happy, holding his lovely second wife (d queen), enjoying his family gathering without knowing that his country is in danger.....
d king of country b is buying more weapon n building a stronger army.....a real n brutal war is coming....yet king of country A is still in his sweet dream.....waiting to b ......
to b continue....
This is another snake head like Chandra >>
http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/79685
Absolutely wind sailor ! If i were Anwar, I will make use of him n make him like stupid dump in d party !
leetz,
my fren been parking his cash in NZ FDs.
E.g. Term Deposit Interest Rates
Last Updated 2:36:01 a.m., Thursday 13 March 2008
Note: Interest rates are subject to change at any time without notice.
Minimum NZD $5,000 deposit, with a maximum of NZD $250,000 per customer. The combined balance of all investment deposits recorded under the same unique account number determines the interest rate. Interest Rates for amounts over NZD $250,000 are subject to negotiation.
If Term Deposits are broken before the maturity date, a reduced interest rate will be paid on the funds invested.
Term $5,000-$9,999 $10,000-$49,999 $50,000+
30 Days 3.00 % p.a. 4.00 % p.a. 4.00 % p.a.
60 Days 3.25 % p.a. 4.00 % p.a. 4.00 % p.a.
90 Days 5.00 % p.a. 7.00 % p.a. 7.00 % p.a.
4 Months 5.00 % p.a. 8.00 % p.a. 8.00 % p.a.
5 Months 5.75 % p.a. 8.00 % p.a. 8.00 % p.a.
6 Months 6.25 % p.a. 8.55 % p.a. 8.55 % p.a.
9 Months 6.25 % p.a. 8.55 % p.a. 8.55 % p.a.
9 Months
Chinese New Year Special 8.80 % p.a.* 8.80 % p.a.*
12 Months 6.35 % p.a. 8.55 % p.a. 8.55 % p.a.
12 Months Special 8.80 % p.a.* 8.80 % p.a.*
18 Months 6.10 % p.a. 8.00 % p.a. 8.00 % p.a.
24 Months 6.10 % p.a. 8.00 % p.a. 8.00 % p.a.
36 Months 6.10 % p.a. 8.00 % p.a. 8.00 % p.a.
48 Months 6.10 % p.a. 8.00 % p.a. 8.00 % p.a.
60 Months 6.10 % p.a. 8.00 % p.a. 8.00 % p.a.
G'luck 2u 168888
Sifus,
Do i use diluted or basic EPS to calculate the ratios? Pls advise. Thank you so much!
Cheers \o/
sifu Sam,
In this market trend, is it the BEST time to play the Deriviative - KLCI (FKLI) Futures, as the market is Up and Down tremendously? How do u think? Any information about this trading?
Thanks!
Pfizer the patented manufacturer for Sildenafil ( Viagra ) have recently collaborated with Mr FED to produce the most expensive blue wonder pill call V200B. According to experiment result, the pill may able to prolong erection upto maximum of 48 hours with the first 12 hours reaching 80% of potential target and the remaining 36 hours dubbed as ' Johnny Be Good '
Mr FED was so eager to test the pills and have pop in 1 himself.
Towards much dissapointment, he unable to achieve even 8 hours peak ' result '.
Not to worry, Mr FED is working closely with XEROX and CANON. If he can print USD200b notes at such a short notice, he can do it again.
Fed plan sparks big gain for bellwether gauge
Thornburg leads rally; mortgage company works with lenders on margin calls
By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch
Last update: 6:33 p.m. EDT March 11, 2008
On Tuesday, the Fed joined with other leading central banks to extend its temporary lending program, increasing the funds available and broadening the collateral it will accept.
The Fed will lend up to $200 billion in Treasury securities for 28 days to primary dealers in the bond market.
Interesting Stuff Written by Steve Randy Waldman
Repurchase agreements and covert nationalization
The Fed announced that it would auction off $100B in loans this month rather than the previously announced $60B via its TAF facility. In the same press release, the FRB announced plans to offer $100B worth of 28 day loans via repurchase agreements against "any of the types of securities — Treasury, agency debt, or agency mortgage-backed securities — that are eligible as collateral in conventional open market operations".
The second announcement puzzled me. After all, the Fed conducts uses repos routinely in the open market operations by which they try to hold the interbank lending rate to the Federal Funds target. In aggregate, the quantity of funds that the Fed makes available is constrained by the Fed Funds target. So, what do we learn from this? Fortunately, the New York Fed provides more details:
The Federal Reserve has announced that the Open Market Trading Desk will conduct a series of term repurchase (RP) transactions that are expected to cumulate to $100 billion outstanding... These transactions will be conducted as 28-day term RP agreements.. When the Desk arranges its conventional RPs, it accepts propositions from dealers in three collateral “tranches.” In the first tranche, dealers may pledge only Treasury securities. In the second tranche, dealers have the option to pledge federal agency debt in addition to Treasury securities. In the third tranche, dealers have the option to pledge mortgage-backed securities issued or fully guaranteed by federal agencies in addition to federal agency debt or Treasury securities. With the special “single-tranche” RPs announced today, dealers have the option to pledge either mortgage-backed securities issued or fully guaranteed by federal agencies, federal agency debt, or Treasury securities. The Desk has arranged single-tranche transactions from time to time in the past.
There are a couple of differences, then, between this new program and typical repo operations:
1. The loans are of a longer-term than usual. Ordinarily, the Fed lends on terms ranging from overnight to two weeks in its "temporary open market operations". The Fed will now offer substantial funding on a 28 day term.
2. The Fed is effectively broadening its collateral requirements by collapsing what are usually 3 distinct levels of collateral which are lent against at different rates to a single category within which no distinctions are made.
The Fed offered the first $15B of repo loans under the program today, so we can see how things are going to work. First, how did the Fed square the circle of ramping up its repos without pushing down the Federal Funds rate? Just as it had done with TAF, the Fed offset the "temporary" injection of funds with a "permanent open market operation". The Fed sold outright $10B of Treasury securities today at the same time as it offered $15B in exchange for mortgage-backed securities under the new program (at a low interest rate than in traditional repos against MBS collateral). The net cash injection was small, but the composition of securities on bank balance sheets changed markedly, as illiquid securities were exchanged for liquid Treasuries.
In James Hamilton's wonderful coinage, the Fed is conducting monetary policy on the asset side of the balance sheet. This is an innovation of the Bernanke Fed. Conventionally, monetary policy is about managing the quantity of the central bank's core liability, currency outstanding. When the Fed wants to loosen, it expands its liabilities by issuing cash in exchange for securities. When it wants to tighten, it redeems cash for securities, reducing Fed liabilities. The asset side is conventionally an afterthought, "government securities". But the Bernanke Fed has branched out. It has sought to lend against a wide-range of assets, actively seeking to replace securities about which the market seems spooked with safe-haven Treasuries on bank balance sheets without creating new cash. By doing this, the Fed hopes to square the circle of helping banks through their "liquidity crisis" without provoking a broad inflation.
"Monetary policy on the asset side of the balance sheet" is a bit too anodyne a description of what's going on here though. The Fed has gotten into an entirely new line of business, and on a massive scale. Prior to the introduction of TAF, direct loans from the Fed to banks, including the discount window lending and repos, amounted to less than $40B, the majority of which were repos collateralized by Treasury securities. By the end of this month, the Federal Reserve will have more than $200B of exposure in its new role as Wall Street's genial pawnbroker. Assuming the liability side of the Fed's balance sheet is held roughly constant, more than a fifth of the Fed's balance sheet will be direct loans to banks, almost certainly against collateral not backed by the full faith and credit of the US government (and beyond that we just don't know). This raises a whole host of issues.
Caroline Baum wrote a column last week poopooing concerns about the Fed taking on credit risk via TAF lending. (Hat tip Mark Thoma.) I usually enjoy Baum's work, but this column was poorly argued. In it, she points out that the Fed has all the tools it needs to manage credit risk. The Fed offers loans only against collateral, and requires that loans be overcollateralized. If the collateral has no clear market value or if there are questions about an asset's quality, the Fed has complete discretion to force a "haircut", writing down the asset (for the purpose of the loan) to whatever value it sees fit. And the Fed can always just say no to any collateral it deems sketchy.
All of that is quite true, and (as Baum snarkily points out) not hard to find on FRB websites. But it fails to address the core issue. Sure the Fed has all the tools it needs to manage credit risk. But does it have the will to use those tools? In word and deed, the Fed's primary concern since August has been to "restore normal functioning" to financial markets. The Fed has chosen to accept some inflation risk in its fight against macroeconomic meltdown. Why wouldn't it knowingly accept some credit risk as well? No one has suggested that the Fed is being "snookered". Skeptics think the Fed is intentionally taking on bank credit risk while still lending at very low rates. Some of us find that troubling.
Which brings us to the more postmodern issue of what credit risk even means to a lender with unlimited cash and an overt unwillingness to let those it lends to default. In a way, I agree with Baum. Until the current crisis is long past, I think it unlikely that any large bank will default and stiff the Fed with toxic collateral. Why not? Because for that to happen, the Fed would have to pull the trigger itself, by demanding payment on loans rather than offering to roll them over. Since TAF started last fall, on net, the Fed has not only rolled over its loans to the banking system, but has periodically increased banks' line of credit as well. In an echo of the housing bubble, there's no such thing as a bad loan as long as borrowers can always refinance to cover the last one.
The distinction between debt and equity is much murkier than many people like to believe. Arguably, debt whose timely repayment cannot be enforced should be viewed as equity. (Financial statement analysts perform this sort of reclassification all the time in order to try to tease the true condition of firms out of accounting statements.) If you think, as I do, that the Fed would not force repayment as long as doing so would create hardship for important borrowers, then perhaps these "term loans" are best viewed not as debt, but as very cheap preferred equity.
Let's go with that for a minute, and think about the implications. One much discussed story of the current crisis is the role of sovereign wealth funds in helping to capitalize struggling banks. Will they, won't they, should we worry? Sovereign wealth funds have invested about $24B in struggling US financials. Meanwhile, the Fed is quietly providing eight times that on much easier terms.
If we view TAF and the new 28-day, broad-collateral repos as equity, what fraction of bank capitalization would they represent? I haven't been able to find current numbers on aggregate bank capitalization in the US. In June of 2006, the accounting net worth of U.S. Commercial Banks, Thrift Institutions and Credit Unions was 1.25 trillion dollars. Putting together remarks by Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn and data on bank equity to total assets from the St. Louis Fed yields a more recent estimate of about 1.6 trillion. The average price to book among the top ten US banks is about 1.3. So, a reasonable estimate for the current market value of bank equity is 2 trillion dollars. The $200B in "equity" the Fed will have supplied by the end of March will leave the Federal Reserve owning roughly 9.1% of the total bank equity. Obviously, the Fed isn't investing in the entire bank sector uniformly. Some banks will be very substantially "owned" by the central bank, whereas others will remain entirely private sector entities. As Dean Baker points out, the Fed is giving us no information by which to tell which is which.
What we are witnessing is an incremental, partial nationalization of the US banking system. Northern Rock in the UK is peanuts compared to what the New York Fed is up to.
You may object, and I'm sure many of you will, that our little thought experiment is bunk, debt is debt and equity is equity, these are 28-day loans, and that's that. But notionally collateralized "term" loans that won't ever be redeemed unless and until it is convenient for borrowers are an odd sort of liability. Central banks are very familiar with the ruse of disguising equity as liability. Currency itself is formally a liability of the central bank, but in every meaningful sense fiat money is closer to equity.
I do not, by the way, object to nationalizing failing banks. There are (unfortunately) banks that are "too big to fail", whose abrupt disappearance could cause widespread disruption and harm. These should be nationalized when they fall to the brink. But they should be nationalized overtly, their equity written to zero, and their executives shamed. That sounds harsh. It is harsh. One hates to see bad things happen to nice people, and these are mostly nice people. But running institutions with trillion-dollar balance sheets is a serious business. Accountability matters. These people were not stupid. They knew, in Chuck Prince's now infamous words, that "when the music stops... things will be complicated.", and they kept dancing anyway.
But accountability has gone out of style. The Federal Reserve is injecting equity into failing banks while calling it debt. Citibank is paying 11% to Abu Dhabi for ADIA's small preferred equity stake, while the US Fed gets under 3% now for the "collateralized 28-day loans" it makes to Citi. Pace Accrued Interest (whom I much admire), I still think this all amounts to a gigantic bail-out. And that it is a brilliantly bad idea from which financial capitalism may have a hard time recovering. Like a well-meaning surgeon slicing up arteries to salvage the appendix, the Federal Reserve is only trying to help
hmm thanks tcg82. I'll think about it. dont like the idea of being exposed to currency risk at a time like this. thanks lot anyway. Just have to resort to being patient. haha.
Yan yan yan yan yan yan.
Hi Eric, KL future ? ha ha..4 me it is just like playing big n small with late uncle lim, not my style of money making ^V^
I rather put my $$$ in currency trading than playing KL future ^V^ know how much i made $$$$ from RMB appreciation since last Oct 07 ? ha ha..i cant claim credit here cos i didnt put it here b4 hand , same goes to bloggers who like to said they hv proven track records ..ha ha.. fyi, it is meaningless to put yr track records there if u didnt said it b4 hand ^V^ if i come to tell u that i hv made $$$$ from shorting KLfuture without any call b4 hand posting, u believe me ? ha ha think a little dudes ^V^
DOW plunged another 195 points again... more to come bros... as i said.. where r d fundamentals to support DOW 4 staying >12,000 ? mana ?
Dilute or basic ? of course dilute one, sometimes u hv to take one step ahead b4 shares dilution ^V^
4 those who r using TA base on bloggers's call (esp d blogger whose asked ppl to buy china call warrants last Oct ) , beware my friends ! blind ppl also know d more u buy d more u die in bear mkt, I wonder y TA never tell u 2 stay away from bear mkt ? from here, u can see y most of d TA buggers get their fingers burnt in recent slump !
Pegasus 101 n sour David , still licking yr wound ? still think uncle sam will hit d bear n missed d bull ? ha ha jgn marah yah ??
Hi, it seems there are a lot of eric(s) here. haha... FYI the eric asking about diluted vs basic eps is different from the one who asked about the KLCI futures, just so to avoid any confusion, i'm e.b and still a beginner in stock investing. cheers!
p/s thank you for replying, uncle sam.
\o/
2 FA followers, I will post a new posting under d title of " SECRET of FA SUCCESS " by end of this month, this posting can only be read after u register yrself as a member in my blog ^V^
Sorry to say , there will be no free lunch for kids n TA buggers from me anymore ^V^
Btw, make sure u TA buggers dont protest around KOMTAR streets for taking away d "TONGKAT" from u..ok ? ha ha jgn marah yah !?
Hv a nice weekend ^V^
Reply to samgoss : "...this posting can only be read after u register yrself as a member in my blog ^V^..."
Sam, how to register myself in your blog? TQ
Feel shameful for those who went protest for removing NEP in Penang. Until when you still need the tongkat to walk?
Actually it should be Indian Ethnic Group to claim themself being marginalised rather than so called bumi? Surprisingly, Indian in Penang has been keeping quite.
If NEP remain unchange, what's the point to have a change on the ruling goverment?
Unfair treatment has to be removed to differentiate oppositon and BN. No doubt what DAP did may lose quite substantial amount of votes from Malay ethnics. But it is to promote fairly treatment, I don't see anything wrong on it.
Disclaimer: the above statement just my personal opinion. Nothing to do with Samgang blog.
Uncle Sam,an jua register kat ur blog ?desperado ad ...
Dear TL and Ben,
My question is in regards to the UEM World revamp exercise. Shall I hold on to my OPUS shares or hold cash in view of the current weak market sentiment?
Another question is the conditional takeover offer by OCBC on Pacmas share at RM4.30/share. Sell at the current market price? Would there be any chance that OCBC might offer a higher price or cancel the deal?
I would appreciate some comments please. Sifu Sam, I hope to receive your opinions too.
Thank you very much.
Dear Sam
I too would like to become a member of your blog so that I can enjoy reading your coming article "Secret of FA Success". Please advise how to register.
tq.
$IFU $am
Sam, how to register in your blog?
Thanx
WHAT SIGNAL DOES FED WANT TO SEND OUT ?
JP MORGAN BUY BEAR STERNS AT ELEVENTH HOURS FOR USD2.00 PER SHARE.
FOR THOSE WHO ARE NOT ACCOUNTING SAVVY, TRY YOUR BEST ( I MEAN VERY VERY BEST, TO FIGURE OUT WHAT IS THE SIGNAL. MAKE SOME COMMON SENSE GUESS )
BEAR LAST FRIDAY CLOSING AT USD30.
BEAR BOOK VALUE PER SHARE = USD84.09 @ NOV 2007
BEAR MANHANTAN BUILDING ITSELF ALREADY COST USD1.0B
BY SELLING AT USD2.00 BUCK, CAN U TELL ME HOW DEEP SHIT IS USA FINANCIAL MARKET RIGHT NOW ?
ANY AH-GUA GO TO LORONG HAJI TAIB ALSO CAN FETCH BETTER PRICE THAN USD2.00
WHAT I WANT TO DELIVER IS NOT HOW MUCH JPMORGAN WILL MAKE OUT OF THIS CRISIS, BUT HOW DEEP AND HOW BAD IS THE USA FINANCIAL INSTITUITION ARE.
AGAIN TL ASK : ARE WE THERE YET ?
DOW FUTURES DOWN 213 POINTS AT THIS MOMENT.
WHY WORRY, MR FED WILL POP ANOTHER BLUE WONDER PILLS FOR THIS TUESDAY MEETING. 75 POINTS - ADA CUKUP ?
100 POINTS - ADA CUKUP ?
DOW JONES TONIGHT SURE ROCKET LIKE DAP AGAIN.
IS THE TIME FOR US TO JUMP IN KLCI ! HONESTLY SPEAKING....DON'T ASK ME !
King of country A already 大势已去!
read d below :-
http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/79943
http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/79917
He cant even protect his man for d CM post..alamakkkk..those who still supported him will need to think twice now !
As what d politician said , his days r numbered !
Btw..dow future down >200 points at time of posting..bros.. seems like our Blue?????? < 6.00 is on its way of making $$$$$$$$
Mo Chow Po ..ok ?
bro sam, how to register to your blog? can I leave my email address here as well? many thanks jc2002@gmail.com
To my respectful ONE and the ONLY ONE Sifu Sam,
Investor is betting for a big market rally in Dow tonights as Mr Ben will again cut rate by at least 75 basis point or even 100 basis points in order to calm the market ( actually I would say he and Mr Bush is buying time....)
So Dow will rocket like DAP ? I guess most probably....or likely too.
But on contrary , does anyone of you notice that how come big investment bank like Lehman Brothers, Goldman Sach choose this ' auspicious ' date to announce their Quarterly report ?
Well, one may argue....is purely " kam-ngam ".
For TL, maybe is really a perfect co-incidence. Really ?
Goldman Sach = GS = Good stuff ?
Estimated Quarterly EPS down 61%
Lehman Brother = EPS estimated down 63%
Why worry, the 100 basis points will cushion the negative news....
STOCK CODE : 2887 @ OLEDI SAI-LANG @ RM1.00
ONE LEG IN HOLLAND !
Unbelievable! i still holding Liondiv @ 1.66, omg.
today price @ 1 only, omg!
I decided to do buy more liondiv next month. hope 3Q result will look better.
is 2887 still holding any parkson ka? how come no contribution from its retailing unit last qtr?
Sifu SAM,
Been a loyal follower of your Blog. Definitely wish to continue learning FA properly from U. Kindly advise how to register
TQ & Blessings,
Sang (cheong.sang@gmail.com)
my china friend said parkson biz in china is not making any biz. guang zhou parkson already gulung tikar that built under the flyover
sam,
please register me for your soon to be release FA article.
Thanks!
If Parkson in China not doing well this will badly affect Liondiv performance rit?
Anyone here still keen to buy Liondiv?
Sam....
Don't forget to include me into your e-mail list. ( myke8888@gmail.com )
Cheeeeerrrsss....
TL to BZ
I suggest we wait for the 3Q 2008 PHB result for confirmation of PRG performance.
Anyway , this afternoon I just have ring up my company group business manager based in Shanghai and ask him the outlook of our retail shop in Shanghai ( we have rented some shop lot in Parkson too ) and he told me...the way Chinese consumer shopping is like they be no tommorow for them .
Consumer sentiment is so strong in China. He forsee that retail sales for the next year is going to be even greater despite the China government try to control the inflation rate.
Anyway, if you are interested to ride on this LION, stay tune for PHB 3Q result. Until then......let wait and see.
Do not forget, Sifu Sam is charging his battery now ( TNB ).....ready to rocket with him....POWER !
Sifu $am
how to register
my email is butcherchong@hotmail.com
Thanx
Since i am still new in share just like to ask. liondiv metal division is just starting and % in pakson is so low. how liondiv is getting profit? i know the company is cash rich & pe is low but from the last q result... is this company still have strong fundamental?
Thank.
sifu sam,
enjoy reading your blog.hope you can add me to your mailing address.
my email is kanno.ken1@Gmail.com.
thank you for sharing your knowledge.thank you
hi sifu sam,
enjoy reading your very informative blog since last year.hope you can add me in your mailing address .kanno.ken1@Gmail.com.
thank you for sharing.
TL : What's next after 2 unsuccessful attempt by Mr FED to shore up DOW JONES ?
Weapon # 1 - Injected liquidity ( actually using a high speed Canon photocopier to printing banana money notes ) of USD200b into the market. Dow having a blue moon of 1 NIGHT STAND
Weapon # 2 - On 18th March, cut FED funding rate by 0.75%. Mr Dow again having his 2 day of 1 NIGHT STAND.
So what next ? Cut again ?
Brother and Sister - like it or not, we are on a roller coaster ride which are not yet see reach the highest peak, and by the time you see it, you are doom for a free fall 90% down ! Stick to GURU SAM lead indicator. Do not misled by rumours or goreng tips. FA is the only way that enable you guys to come out kicking alive during this turmoil.
Take care...Ngor wai yan-yan, Yan-yan wai ngor
Sifu sam,
Kindly let me know how to register in ur blog
goodluckfollowme@gmail.com
Hi Sam,
Can you add me into your list - hwh1@yahoo.co.uk
hi samgoss!
yr photo, even without the face, looks familiar..u stay in bdr tasik selatan ke???
how is yr ta? ever see the klci drop like shit in yr portfolio? or now, u shifting business to feng shui shit already!
ha ha ha
i hope china give u more opportunity than malaysia or singapore market....now i'm into forex, left or right now ppl making money in forex!!!
anytime can challenge yr stupid fa portfolio, rm400K in 3 yrs since i last heard from you???
ppl in forex are making RM40K per month, where is yr brain???
Hellooooo my long lost TA loser friend from osk forum mr pussy lover..long time no see ? how r u ? must be badly burnt by recent slump ..i guess ha ha..know y i know that? cos from all yr TA method that u posted in osk forum those days..it was proven "Holland" .. jgn marah yah ?
well well well...40K profit in 1 month from forex ? ha ha talk is free... just like i said in my previous posting, i hv made tone of $$$$ from currency appreciation of remimbi.. but i didnt post it here b4 hand.. does it count ? ha ha..sorry..i dont think i should deserve that credit cos I DIDNT POST IT B4 HAND ! ha ha ..unlike u, i am not big talker ^V^
40K profit in a month ? ha ha.. u think ppl believe u ? just like i tell u i made > 768K from remimbi appreciation..u believe that ? ha ha ..
Bdr tasik selatan ? ha ha ask my tenant for my real address if u can..okay ?? fyi , I always go to collect my rental by every end of d year , want to meet me there ? ha ha... u r welcome mr pussy lover ^V^
see u kid hmmmmmmmh ^V^
Haha, funny funny ... Sam, seems like you have tons of enemies in OSK forum. ^_^
Wondering is this pussy lover like politic also. He should join BN - simply because he is as dirty as these "Ps".
Wan to talk big?? Show before hand lah ... dun simply pop out from middle of nowhere (perhaps fr pussy, dude) and claiming how much you have made.
Sam/TL/Ben, have one question on the gold price keeps on increasing. Does it indicate that investors are changing equity into precious metal to preserve value? Is the demand keep the price going up due to this?
Thanks.
Here is some sharing on CIA's comprehensive Malaysia's economy data.(updated on 20 Mar 2008)
U will be amazing when compare with other country. (just click the icon located beside each item)
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/my.html#Econ
Enjoy.
Ha ha Ben..yr guess is correct, i hv lot of enemies in osk..they got one thing in common that is " They r TA n all r loser " , I hv proven them wrong with my FA method in year 2001 to 2003 , those from osk forum shld know it well.. ppls like CHINYK, Pussylover , pegasus 101 , David, spt188 ,aldi ,pricechart ! all these TA buggers r big talker , they cant produce say b4 hand proven records but still want to act like shares expert in d forum , what they did was all Ma hou pau (said after hand calls) stories ! by now ,u should know y i got so many TA enemies , cant blame them , is my fault n me myself should be blamed cos i took all d trouble 4 proving them WRONG !
D only person that worth 4 respect in osk forum is"samksgoh " , he is a fundamentalist , he has say b4 hand proven track records unlike d above whose know nothing but bullshitting !
As it can be seen from TA blogs, NOne of them calling short or sell when mkt hitting 1,450 on Jan 08 ! none ! d worst part was , most of d TA analysts said KLSE should hit 1,800 by end of 08 , see what happened now ? they started to changed their view by saying mkt will go further down to 1,100 in short term n 980 in mid term ! what a hack !
2 all d TA buggers out there , if u want me to shut up n get lost from blogger's world , no problem at all PROVIDED u can show us yr call b4 hand TA records ! as simple as that ! can u ?
to be frank, I really doubt u r able to do that ^V^
anyone ?
Yah b4 i forget, i dare not to say i am d best in shares investment (There r lot of silent fundamentalist out there who r much better than me !) but I dare to say , I am much much better than those buggers who using TA for shares investment! that is for "SURE" !!!
Still d old singing from me :-
冥冥中早注定你是富或贫,是错永不对, 真永是真,任你怎说安守我FA,始终相信FA是金 ^V^
Hi Sam/TL/Ben,
Need your advice on Chase because there is a company wanted to buy back the share at 60sen.
I don't know if it is worth selling to them eventhough I have their financial report, but it doesn't make sense to me even after reading it.
Please help... Thanks!
Chase - buying back shares ? Use what to buy ? Borrow some more ? Please zoom to their debt level....
Please do not be misled by the hi-tech share buyback scheme.
A company buying back their shares from market is those company who having solid $$$ where they do not have intention to use for expansion in near future, and buying shares from market may ( not neccessarily ) help to boost up the EPS ( provided they will cancel the shares in future ) to enhance shareholder value.
So do Chase have these basic criteria to buy back the shares ? Ask yourself and decide.
Well, if your decision based on speculating flavor, then I unable to comment further.
Take care.
Hi TL,
I mean to say there is a company making an conditional takeover offer to buy share from shareholders at price of 60 sen.
I have a few of them, but I do not if it is worth selling to them.
Can you advice? Thanks!
For me, commodity prices such as crude oil, gold and other minerals are ridiculously high. It doesn't backed by solid economy but in fact by excessive fund cash out from financial market.
Recently there was a retreat on the commodity prices. This trend will continue and is evidenced by the dropping of commodity prices despite rate cutting by Fed (note: normally more fund will flow to commodity to take advantage on depreciation of USD). The adverse effect is showing the concern of recession is increasing.
Hi Sam,TL,Ben
Can advice if we shld buy in liondiv now at around 1.1 - 1.2?The voulme of the share traded start to picking up. Is it a good buy at current level?
DJA seemed rebound over last 3 days? What do you all suggest? One more question on liondiv, do anyone know wheter tan teng boo are holding it or has dispose it at its latest portfolio .
Many thanks from all the sifu.
fangsiah,
i think hwh1 talking about the Conditional Voluntary Take-Over Offer for chase at rm0.60.
I also very curious because a while back when the conditional take over offer was announced (for both sittatt and chase) at rm0.60, both counters only hang around the 0.48 level. Any experienced brother can explain whether a company that give such an offer can "pull out", any previous instance like this where an investor buy to take advantage of the take-over offer but kena screwed before?
TL to Goodluck
In my personal opinion, the landscape of Malaysia & USA economy does not change for the past 1 month. While no doubt that the recent positive news flow from USA have benefitted regional stocks, but the BEAR ZONE is still very much intact.
On whether to buy LION DIV at the current price, is very much depend on your own appetite and risk.
For TL, buying LION DIV at RM1.00 recently is only paying a PE of 3X for their 2008/2009 result.
Why I extend the 2009 result is because the DRI only commence operation during March 2008 which mean for the whole year result ending June 2008. there is nothing much to shout about their sales and profit.
So TL need to take cue of their final 4Q 2008 ( ending June ) to get the feel of 1Q how much Lion Div is making and thereafter we will able to know whether LION DIV able to generate EPS of RM0.30 or not.
Having saying the bright spot, the risk that William Cheng cock up with the plant also cannot be rule out....( but highly unlikely since the group is having experience in this business with Megasteel )
So to buy or not to buy ?
On whether TTB of Icap is still holding the stock, TL unable to comment since does not suscribe anymore their website.
Take care.
TL : Does this non savvy financial guy know his stuff ? He has cock up in BN and now wanted to mess up Bursa......by putting the bad eggs ( second board junk stock ) into a basket of good eggs ( blues in main board ), he is trying to drive away FFM ?
Tuesday March 25, 2008
MYT 11:15:18 AM
PM: Bursa’s Main, Second Boards to be combined
KUALA LUMPUR: Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi announced on Tuesday that the three boards on Bursa Malaysia would be streamlined.
Speaking at the Invest Malaysia 2008 conference here, he said the Main and Second Boards would be combined to set up one board for more established companies with strong financial records.
Abdullah, who is also the Finance Minister, said the Mesdaq market would also be revamped under the proposed streamlining process.
He also said the government would allow a third credit rating agency to be set up and foreign strategic partners could hold 49% equity interest.
The highlights of his speech also include measures to liberalise approvals for bond markets and also a review of the implementation of economic plans.
TL to Hwh1
Sorry bro. I have given you the wrong statement. THousand apology.
Okay. The company is debt laden and earning is very murky since many years.If your cost is +/- RM0.60, get out from this HELL and put your bet into someother good single low PE stock.....such as RCE ( recession proof ) which once Guru Sam recommended.
Take care.
THE EDGE @ 24 MAR 2008 - TOP 10 PICKS
CHECK THIS OUT : http://www.theedgedaily.com/
LUCKY 5 : Lion Diversified Holdings Bhd
The counter lost 28% this month to close at RM1.03 last Wednesday, which reduced its market value to less than RM760 million.
It was bruised following the drop in its investment value in Parkson Holdings Bhd (PHB), which fell 25% during the month to RM5.55, caused in turn by the shrinkage in the value of its Hong Kong-listed subsidiary Parkson Retail Group Ltd.
However, note that LionDiv "crystallised" part of its investments in PHB earlier at RM11.04 per share, with the issuance of US$132.1 million (about RM433 million) bonds that are exchangeable for 40 million new shares in PHB at RM11.04 each.
Also note that PHB was traded at RM9.85 then.
The issue of new PHB shares will be facilitated by converting LionDiv's holdings of RM160 million nominal value RCSLS in PHB, which have a conversion price of RM4. Essentially, LionDiv's cost is only RM4 per Parkson share but it had issued the bonds at RM11.04.
LionDiv still holds another RM340 million nominal value RCSLS in PHB. Should it convert these into 85 million new shares in PHB (at RM4), the shares would be worth RM471.8 million based on PHB's current market price of RM5.55.
Given LionDiv's current market value of RM759 million, its promising steel venture is hence valued at only RM287 million. Note that LionDiv has virtually zero net gearing except for the above-mentioned US dollar exchangeable bonds.
Sifu TL @ fangsiah,
Thx for your enlightement. Really appreciate!
I am now monitoring on the share and global market movements so that i will find a chance to buy on MOS. Thanks!
TL to Goodluck
In this blog, TL only acknowledge one Sifu and one Guru only. Is my highly respected Sam !
So no need to address me as Sifu. Later the big hat cover my small head and I will suffocated.
This is TL stand. Past, present and future !
Ngor wai yan-yan, Yan-yan wai ngor !
goodluck has left a new comment on the post "^V^ 问我 ? ASK ME ? ^V^":
Sifu TL @ fangsiah,
Thx for your enlightement. Really appreciate!
I am now monitoring on the share and global market movements so that i will find a chance to buy on MOS. Thanks!
TL and ccdev,
Thanks for the advice! :)
d mkt rebound could b temporary, so b careful, hit n run....
My dear sifu Sam/TL/Ben:
Can sifu comment on TWS?
Thanks...
Sifu TL ,
Please correct me if i am wrong.
Actually liondiv is not a debt free company.
I check with their FR 2007 (pdf) *pg 110) , total borrowing (long term + short term) shld be 771,302,000. While they got cash 1,774,573,000 (pg 108) on 2007.
This translate only RM1.3 cash in hand
If the figure is true, cash - debt 1,774,573,000 - 771,302,000 = apprx 1 billion. This means that it only have around 1 billion cash even after deduct all the debt. The borrowing is realitively high compare to 2006 and the trade receivable is also high as compare with 2006.
Is something fishy going on? How it shld be valued? Is the gearing healthy? Can you please enlighten me ? How shld we value this stock? Thanks a lot.
PANTUN UNTUK PAK LAH :
Panas Ku Sangka Sampai Ke Petang Rupanya Hujan Di Tengahhari.
Kelantan Ku Sangka Mudah DiTawan, Rupanya Ku Hilang 5 Negeri.
Sungguh Malang Nasibku Ini, Tiada Kampung Tiada Negeri.
Penang Negeriku Ditawan DAP, Tak tau Kemana Nak Bawa Diri.
Ada Baiknya Ku Undur Diri, bagi Peluang Kepada Khairy,
Sambil Kutumpu Kepada Isteri, Manalah Tau Nak Dapat BABY !!!
TL : Is a bird ? No
TL : Is a plane ? No
TL : Is a superman ? No
TL : Is a Super Bear ? YES
TL : I remember once a member here advised me not to post long message but instead link the message to the website for easier reference. Due to the seriousness of the matter which TL think every member here need to read carefully ( and entirely too !!!! ), TL got to apologised by defying his advise and put up this long message here. Like it or not, we are entering a Super Bear Zone !!!
NOURIEL ROUBINI
Superbear says there's more to come
By Janet Morrissey
March 24, 2008
Nouriel Roubini, one of the biggest bears on Wall Street, wasn't surprised by the fire sale at The Bear Stearns Cos Inc. of New York. He said it just reinforces his 12-point gloom-and-doom outlook, which he unleashed on Wall Street in February, and he now thinks that total financial losses in the credit debacle may top the $1 trillion he previously projected.
Mr. Roubini, 49, a professor at New York University's Stern School of Business and founder of RGE Monitor, a New York-based economic research firm, was met by skepticism when he first predicted a downturn in a July 2006 report, "A Coming Recession in the U.S. Economy." Today, few doubt his early insight.
Since then, his predictions have become even more dire, with forecasts of mounting financial losses and a possible "catastrophic" meltdown in U.S. financial markets.
Mr. Roubini's 12-point outlook forecasts that housing prices will plummet 20% to 30% from their peak, subprime mortgage losses will exceed $300 billion and credit losses will spread outside the subprime arena to credit cards, auto loans and other areas.
He further expects monoline companies, which insure against defaults on certain municipal bonds and mortgage-related securities, to be downgraded, leading to more write-downs.
Other predictions include a meltdown in commercial real estate (see story, Page 44), a wave of defaults on corporate debt and credit default swaps and a sharp drop in liquidity, which could lead to fire sales of assets.
Reached by phone in Stockholm, Mr. Roubini spoke about current conditions and what he expects next.
Q. You have been quite bearish about the economy and financial markets. What was your reaction to the takeout of Bear Stearns?
A. It was not a surprise to me. Last month, I wrote a piece on 12 steps to financial disaster and my Step 9 said that one or two major financial or broker-dealer firms would go belly up, so I saw it coming, quite frankly. I put it in the context of a shadow financial system that is composed of not just broker-dealers, but hedge funds, money market funds, SIVs, conduits and so on that are all subject to a liquidity risk in addition to the credit risk. So, to me, this is just the beginning of a generalized run on these.
Q. Will we see more major banking institutions collapse or get taken out at fire sale prices?
A. Certainly some of the other broker-dealers, like Lehman Brothers [Inc. of New York], have exposure to toxic stuff like mortgage-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations, as Bear Stearns did. And all of the institutions have the characteristics of being highly leveraged, having funded themselves in forms that are very short and liquid and having done investments that are now highly liquid and highly risky. So I see other institutions being at risk — absolutely.
Q. The Fed agreed to provide financing of up to $30 billion to cover the Bear assets that were less attractive to JPMorgan Chase & Co., and this marked the first time the Fed has offered a bailout to a non-regulated bank since the Great Depression. Are you concerned?
A. It's the beginning of a radical change in monetary policy. It's not just the $30 billion that the Fed confirmed to Bear Stearns via JPMorgan — there were two other major options that went in the same direction. One was the decision [two weeks ago] to provide $200 billion so that all primary dealers, including non-bank financial institutions, would be able to swap their illiquid and toxic MBS [paper] for safe Treasuries. The other was the Fed giving any primary dealer, including non-banks, access to the Fed discount window on the same terms as banking institutions. This is a radical change; we haven't seen anything like this since the Great Depression.
These are financial institutions that are not regulated or supervised by the Fed. The Fed has no idea of whether they are just illiquid or insolvent, which creates a massive moral hazard problem. It's a radical shift in the way the Fed operates — and a dangerous way, I would argue.
Q. Dangerous in what way?
A. You're telling people that even if they have made reckless lending and investment decisions, mismanaged risk or continue to do stupid things, the government will bail them out. We are in a systemic financial crisis.
Q. In your 12-step prediction, you estimated total financial losses from subprime lending, credit cards and auto loans at $1 trillion. Has your view changed after Bear Stearns?
A. The losses that we're facing at this point — $1 trillion — is the floor, not the ceiling. Losses might be much bigger than that. Even if you believe subprime losses might be in the order of $300 billion to $400 billion, more losses are going to be derived from commercial real estate, credit cards, auto loans, student loans and leverage loans, as well as from corporate defaults and losses from city assets.
Eventually the monolines will be downgraded, which means we'll see another round of write-downs on the things that they insured.
Q. Where are home prices going?
A. Two years ago, I predicted home prices would fall cumulatively 20%, but now I believe it will be at least 30%.
With a 20% fall in home prices, about 16 million households are under water. They have negative equity, which means the value of their homes is below the value of their mortgages. With a 30% drop in prices, you have 21 million households that are in negative equity. And since the mortgages are no-recourse loans, essentially they can walk away.
Even if only half of the 16 million households were to walk away, that alone could lead to losses for the financial system of $1 trillion. Even a 20% drop in home values may imply losses of $1 trillion that are not priced into the market today. So that's the floor. Again, it could be higher — as much as $2 trillion — if prices fall 30% and more people walk.
Q. You are predicting problems in commercial real estate, which we haven't seen yet. When do you expect the crisis to hit?
A. The same kind of reckless lending practices that occurred in subprime also occurred in commercial real estate — things like really high loan-to-value ratios and inflated estimations of how much rent would increase. If you look at the CMBX index (which tracks bonds backed by real estate loans), the spreads imply a huge number of defaults on existing commercial real estate loans. More important, the market for new commercial real estate loans is totally frozen, like the one for subprime new originations.
Q. But when will this happen?
A. That shoe has not dropped yet. But I expect the severe recession in residential housing will lead to a severe recession in commercial real estate. The reason is simple: If you go west, you have entire ghost towns outside of Phoenix, Las Vegas and throughout California. Who is going to be building new shopping centers, shopping malls, offices and stores where you have ghost towns? Also, there has been a lot of commercial real estate activity in the last couple of years, including a huge increase in retail capacity at a time of consumer-led recession. So, I expect [a commercial real estate] collapse will occur in the next few quarters.
Q. How bad will things get?
A. I would argue this is the worst financial crisis the U.S. has had since the Great Depression. We haven't seen this type of real financial turmoil for the last 70 years. Of course, it's not going to be as bad as the Great Depression. But this isn't your typical run-of-the-mill recession that in the last two episodes lasted only eight months with a minor contraction in output. This is going to last at least 12 months and more likely 18 months, which is something we haven't seen in decades.
Q. So you expect the economy to start turning around in mid-2009?
A. The real economic activity, yes. But some parts of the system are going to be in a severe contraction for much longer; home prices are going to keep falling for another three years, in my view. And the financial mess is going to take years to clean up.
SIFU SAM,
SEEM LIKE MOST ASIAN MARKET IN RED
ZONE EXCEPT KLSE..BRAVO..
SSEC -5.42% TWII -1.85%.....
MALAYSIA BOLEH! KAH?
MALAYSIA BOLEH! KAH?
VERY DOUBTFUL????
LET SEE.....2MORROW IS FRIDAY
TUESDAY + 3 = FRIDAY
TL to Goodluck,
Brother, u make me pop 4 panadol in one goal...very confuse. Your statement is contradicting each other.
Sifu TL ,
Please correct me if i am wrong.
Actually liondiv is not a debt free company. ( U DID MENTIONED CASH LESS DEBT GOT BALANCE - RM1.0B ....SO STILL NOT DEBT FREE ? ...NOT UNDERSTAND LAHHH )
I check with their FR 2007 (pdf) *pg 110) , total borrowing (long term + short term) shld be 771,302,000. While they got cash 1,774,573,000 (pg 108) on 2007.
This translate only RM1.3 cash in hand ( TL : THE NTA IS ABOUT RM2.70 ...AND CURRENTLY TRADING AT RM1.26 ++....SO LOOK OKAY TO ME....)
If the figure is true, cash - debt 1,774,573,000 - 771,302,000 = apprx 1 billion. This means that it only have around 1 billion cash even after deduct all the debt. The borrowing is realitively high compare to 2006 and the trade receivable is also high as compare with 2006.
( KAWAN , SURE HIGH LAH.....JUST BORROW FOR FUNDING THE DRI PLANT )
Is something fishy going on?
( I CAN'T SMELL IT, BRO )
How it shld be valued? Is the gearing healthy? Can you please enlighten me ? How shld we value this stock? Thanks a lot.
RULE OF THUMB STOCK VALUATION.
1. PE ( ON )
2. NTA ( ON )
3. PRICE / NTA ( ON )
4. SUSTAINABLE EARNING ( YET TO BE SEEN )
5. MANAGEMENT ( WILLIAM CHENG IS DAMN SCREW BUSINESSMAN. HOW HE PROPELLED PARKSON INTO BLUE CHIP....CAN U SEE IT ? )
6. FFM FAVORITE.
7. VIETNAM RM3.0B - HIGHLY LEAD BY LION DIV DUE TO STRONG BALANCE SHEET.
8. TTB ( ICAPITAL ) PLACE HIS BET ON THIS COUNTER WITH A TAG PRICE RM3.00 - RM4.50
SO ALL IN ALL......ANYTHING TO LOSE OUT ?
TL to Goodluck ( Lion D )
I suggest you refer to Q2 2008 report and do not see ' overnight ' newspaper ( 2007 result )as guidance.
It make you confuse and me too.
Long story cut short, what TL buying now is like counting the chicken before the egg hatch.
Their DRI plant just kick off this month....so cock up or screwd up....we yet to see.
Take care.
2887 LIONDIV, LION DIVERSIFIED HOLDINGS BHD
Changes in Director's Interest (S135)
28 Mar 2008, 10:45
Particular of Director
Name Datuk Cheng Yong Kim
Address 1103 Apartment Desa Kudalari
Lorong Kuda
Jalan Tun Razak
50450 Kuala Lumpur
Descriptions (Class & Nominal Value) Ordinary shares of RM0.50 each
Change Detail
Change Date 27 Mar 2008
Change Reason Acquisition of shares
Nature of Interest Direct
Transaction Detail
Transaction Type Date of Change No of Securities Price Transacted (RM)
Acquired 21 Mar 2008 23,200 1.000
Acquired 24 Mar 2008 221,300 1.048
SIFU TL @ FANGSIAH,
VERY EAGER TO KNOW THAT WHAT STOCK DID U WHOLD CURRENTLY?????ESP LIOND
SO THAT WE ALL CAN COUNTING THE CHICKEN B4 THE EGG HATCH.
THANKS++++
Sifu TL ,
Thanks for your comment. So it was me who read the "outdated" report. My apology.
OK. When read at its latest quarterly rpt for the financial period ended 31/12/2007 we able to see
1.) Total cash & Cash equivalents as at 31/12/2007 316,972,000 ( CF line59)
Total debt ( long term + short term )
2.) Total Borrowing and debt securities , secured and unsecure 447,787,000 (Notes line313)
cash - debt = -130,815,000 (-ve)
Correct me if i am wrong.
Liondiv is no longer a debt free and cash rich company.
Wht we are betting on this Lion is actually as at wht u mentioned on the 8 attribute of RULE OF THUMB STOCK VALUATION?
For sharing, if you guys are interested to take a look on Economist magazine.
http://rapidshare.com/users/VZ5MVX
Buy original if u like it.
Allow me to comment on Liondiv.
Included in the term loan there was a USD132.11mil of 2.5% exchangeable bond which was issued by a way of conversion RM160mil RCLS of 40mil Parkson Shares.
The issuance of bond was at RM11.0361 while RCLS was only RM4. In another word, Liondiv "crystalised" a profit of RM281.444mil in this deal. Beside, the interest was only 2.5% where to get such a low interest rate loan?
Technically speaking, Liondiv is not in net cash position @31/12/2007.
However, Liondiv still holding 500mil RCLS which was valued at RM625.33mil @31/12/2007 and it worth RM781.25mil today based on the closing price of RM6.25 of Parkson. Thus, there is a profit of RM155.92mil to be booked in on Liondiv FS @31/3/3008. On top of this, LionD benefited from the depreciation of USD by a translation gain of RM10.819mil (assume forex rate @3.19)arose from exchangeable bond of USD132.11mil.
The above statement was made from the accounting perspective. Hope can solve the queries.
TL to Goodluck & Taozer
2 Goodluck : Liondiv is no longer a debt free and cash rich company.
LION D is just started embarking on the heavy investment early last year with some borrowing. Thus previous 2Q profit from retail already taken over by ACB (Parkson) So naturally his piggy bank will be slimmer. THerefore, on whether the egg will hatch into chicken and cash flow generated back into the company bank for the next 2Q, one must be extra patience to wait.
2 Taozer : Lion Div is still holding right now. Not ready to sell. Currently I am still waiting for the April Big Daddy Bear Zone next month to buy MUIB below RM0.30. Why ? If one buy into the story of turnaround for MUIB, please use the EPS for MUIB last
4Q as guideline. Chop off 20% if you are kiasu ( to cushion the USA slowdown effect on global market )...and project for full 12 months EPS. What PE you got ?
Well, the debt of MUIB is still high but have considerably slashed down substantially over the years. With interest saving costing million, the profit & loss of MUIB is looking strong for next Q.
Do not kan-cheong.....you have all the time for April fool shopping carnival next month !
Bro Ben
Thank you for your comment. Take care.....Actually the article was posted earlier on 25/03/2008 under the title : LUCKY 5 : Lion Diversified Holdings Bhd
As got some member have further posted messages asking on the balance sheet strength of LION DIV, TL know that some of them still not savvy in accounting and financial jargon. So as not to mess them up, is better not to go deeper.
That's why I put up a few simple rule of thumb on why to invest in Lion Div recently hoping they get a better feel of what are the type of LION that TL riding now.
(PE, NTA, Price/NTA, EPS )
Take care.
SIFU TL ,
THANKS FOR UR REPLY,CURRENTLY WHAT CAN I DO IS WAIT THE BIG BEAR COME.
^V^ WHEN NOTHING TO DO ,
DO NOTHING ^V^.
MUIB 4Q EPS IS 3.97
PE = 35.5/3.97
= 8.94
PLEASE CORRECT ME IF I M WRONG.
APPRECIATE TO LEARN MORE FROM U.
^_^ Bro TL, noted.
Beside, do you know whether the exchangeable bond redeemable?
TL
MUI final 4th Q 2007 = EPS fully diluted RM0.0153.
If we use this as guideline to project for the next full 12 mth result, we will get RM0.06.
Based on today price RM0.33 / RM 0.06 = PE 5.50
As the group is more diversify and overseas contribution is balance with internal income, the group is well balance for any shocking local political change of landscape.
Currently TL is still riding the LION DIV and will only jump into MUIB provided the yin-yang take place !
Take care
TL to Ben
At end of 5 years tenure, LION Div have the right to ' redeem ' ( convert ) RCSL to Parkson shares and pass to Bond holder at maturity date.
Please do not mix up. Redeemable ( conversion ) and exchangable. ( exchangeble by BONDS holder to Parkson shares at end of 5th years )
Hope what I trying to explain here able to help.
Reference is made to the announcements by the Company dated 31 October 2007 and 6 November 2007. The Board of Directors of LDHB wishes to announce that the issuance by Excel Step Investments Limited (“Issuer”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of LDHB, of USD132,110,000 nominal value 5-year 2.5% exchangeable bonds which are exchangeable into approximately 40 million new ordinary shares of RM1.00 each of Parkson Holdings Berhad (“Parkson”) to be issued by way of conversion of RM160 million nominal value redeemable convertible secured loan stocks of Parkson held by the Issuer, at an initial exchange price of RM11.0361 per Parkson share (“Proposed Exchangeable Bonds Issue”) has been issued and completed today.
sifu TL,
What is the turnaround story for MUIB? what makes you think they will perform better from now on?
The turnaround story of MUIB will positively affect MUIPROP or not? If yes to what extent?
thank u for sharing!
Bro TL, thanks for replying.
The reason why I ask whether is it redeemable is because I wan to check does LionD need to repay USD132.11mil loan 5yrs later or not. If only parkson shares being "repaid" at the end of the day, then that will be good for Liond future cash flow.
Anyway, thanks for answering. ^_^
Lion Diversified to buy land in China @ BT Published: 2008/04/01
LION Diversified Bhd (LDHB) has agreed to buy four pieces of land measuring 200,610 sq m at the Changshu Southeast Economic Development Zone, Changshu City, China for RM151.68 million The land, to be used for property development, was bought by Changshu Lion Enterprise Co Ltd,
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