^V^
I hv taken profit of RM 11,307.00 in d month of DEC 07 (Thanks to Liondiv n Masteel ),unrealised profit is now stood at RM16,257.00 ^V^ My cash vs shares status is currently stood at 0.47 : 0.53,which is in healthy position, I feel extremely comfortable with overall returns of 320% or profit of RM575,006.50 !
What I did in Dec 07 :-
I hv taken profit on Masteel at 1.61 with profit of RM7,747.00 .
I hv also taken profit on Liondiv at 2.07 for 20 lots with profit of RM5,380.00.
I hv swap 35 lots of engtex @ 0.695 to 50 lots of ECM at avg cost of 0.852.
In d same time, I also bought back 5 lots of liondiv @ 1.89 & 9 lots of Mahsing @ 1.82.
As it can be seen from d attached pictures, I queued to buy masteel at 1.65 this morning, unfortunately nothing is done ^V^ luckly I managed to get 10 lots of Hiaptek @1.94 , as expected, demand of steel is going very strong with another 20% hike in steel price, We will see another 15 to 20% upside potential for steel stocks to rise in d coming months.
Hiaptek has been hanging around 1.80 to 1.95 for quite some time since Oct 07,its year high is around 2.40+ with bottom support at 1.75+ , seems like steel stocks r gonna to be d next theme play, with d huge volume traded by Hiaptek today, I am confident that there will be another 20% rise for Hiaptek.
In term of value n PE , Masteel is much better than Hiaptek, just that i cant overcome myself for buying something which is 20cts higher than what I sold..ha ha I rated Hiaptek as a trading buy for short term from now till 28 FEB 08.
From d Macro economy point of views, RMB will appreciate further with d tighthen monetary policy imposed by d chinese gov , thus, Asia currencies will follow also even without any int rate cut by d FED. still d same old story, Asia stocks r highly bullish in 1st qtr of 2008 , hold on to yr existing shares till 28 Feb or date announcement of d coming GE whichever is earlier, after that, sell n minimise yr holding ^V^
Happy trading ^V^
158 comments:
Uncle sam, thank you very much for your masteel, me & my mom still holding it at average cost around 1.33.
We have ecmlibra at average cost of 0.86 ^_^ Kam Siah lu .
You are really good.
Salute.
Annony, good to know me buying back steel stock ? no..no..no//u r wrong, I have never let go my steel stock, I sold my masteel bcos i hv liondiv in hand, never forget liondiv is also in steel sector ^V^
Fuyohhhh sam,
masteel masteel masteel $ $ $
Xie xie ni.
Welcome back sam, i missed u very much he he, masteel ? ha ha..I am still holding all since u first call last year.
not many, 53 lots at 1.31
yum yum yum.. I love u sam
for those Gpacket victim.... hold on 1st, I got insider news... wait until mid of january, we'll get surprise ^_^. I promise
Hey Kt, what surprise? Pleasant one or bad one ? I am still holding high price one, unfortunately....thanks in advance for sharing
2008 doesn't seems like an auspicious year. First got CSL sex scandal, last night crude oil price hit over USD100/bbl. Today IOI sure fly, hopefully steel theme play not yet ended. ^_^
Hi! Good to know u Sam. I've been following ur blog since 2 months. And so much thank for the ECM.( i get profit around 5k)
Can u add me ur mailing list?
shannedy@gmail.com
Thanks again...
Bought 6 lots of onastel at 1.59.
Steel stocks,Buy on dip!
Hello Sam, I would like to know whether you are still bullish on RCECap or not? I see in your portfolio that your average buying price is 0.910.. At the current price, why don't you buy in to average down your cost? Thank you in advance
Sam,
I followed you on buying Onastel... I like the balance sheet. :)
Steel stocks lai lai lai...
Mac
Hi Sam and Gang
Do you think Leader a good buy as well ?
Rcecap ? of course I am still confident on her, already made one round from her n re enter again at 0.91 , y should i need to do averaging ? in fact my actual cost for rcecap is around 0.855+- if i take d profit taking of rcecap in to ac, further more, 100 lots already placed on it , i will never put all my eggs in one basket , that's 4 sure ^V^
What u need to do is hold till 28 Feb, Sin Ka expert expecting SSEX to reach 8,000 by end of 08, if SSEX touched 8,000 ? what do u think of Hang Seng ? if hang seng performed, what do u think of regional mkt like KLSE ? dont forget we hv CNY rally n pending GE to boost our mkt.
Hold !
Hi Sifu Sam, I would like to know keladi and ECM, at what price will you dispose and should I hold these 2 stock until Feb 28? Please advise.
suka, yes ! y not !? its latest earning improved from 6.1 cts to 11.6 cts (3 qtrs only ), good call ! buy n hold !
Chop all on 28 Feb or announcement of GE ? well.. i think minimixing is d word to be used. Those with huge gain , sell! those with little gain or running at little loss , hold or minimise ^V^
but LEADER have been goreng few months ago. now volumn very low since Jun'07 till now. So hardly gain $$ from this stock
dear Sam....
Among the steel stock....i look at Lsteel...which the price is much more cheaper 0.645-0.660.... any commment on this stock...? thanks
Dear Sam
Thanks for your reply.Will swap my Engtex to Onastel and Leader soon :-0. I hold Engtex too looooong at quite high price!
Herbert, as mentioned by Sam...buy and hold. I read somewhere that Apex analyst indicate FV for Leader around 1.55-1.57 :-)
I got few lots of Ornatel also. Let see below comparison between Ornatel and Masteel:
Ornatel (RM1.56):
PER - around 6.8 (Assume EPS for 2007 = 23cents)
Gearing Ratio – 0.09
Interest Exp – around RM2.2mil (estimation)
Stocks - >RM200mil
Net Cash Position
Masteel (RM1.77):
PER – around 5.6 (Assume EPS for 2007 = 32cents)
Gearing Ratio – 0.69
Interest Exp – around 17mil (estimation)
Stocks - >RM98mil
Net Debt Position of RM200mil
In conclusion: interest exp of Masteel is 7times higher than Ornatel while Ornatel is having >RM200mil of stocks (assume majority are steels), what do you think these stock will worth when the rumors of 20% hike of steel prices being announced? Don’t forget few months back, when ORNATEL was traded at RM1.55, MASTEEL was only RM1.40 but now MASTEEL already hit RM1.8 ORNATEL still stay within range of RM1.50-RM1.60. With the fundamental as listed above, high chances it is the time for ORNATEL to take off.
Sam,
Your view is really good! Hiaptek is coming, but unfortunately my choice of Onastel is still sleeping now...
Miss it Hiaptek!
Good home work done Ben ! u r absolutely right, onastel left very much behind as compared to masteel, know y masteel can come up so fast from behind ? it is bcos of its LOW PE 0f 4 at 1.35+, 20% increased in steel price will sent her to PE 2 if she still traded ar 1.40+-, therefore, she is taking d lead now even with gearing higher than Onastel ... i think is time for onastel to do d catching up...
Some one said high PE stand for high prospect.. well... do u need a second thought b4 I do a write up about what is Low PE stand for ? by saying that means he only know what is d defination of LOW PE but he doeant understand what is LOW PE at all !
I am little busy now, will do a write up on LOW PE again when i am free. ^V^
Sam
You better be more ' chun '...some of your fans out there even got their entire family place the bet on your stocks. Ha Ha....just kidding. Buying shares now is entirely new game. A true fundamentalist like WB & his sifu BG buy based on margin of safety and sell based on instrinsic value. But our market now is not that mature, people buy FA stocks and selling in similar pattern with traders ( follow wind ). I guess is nothing wrong. If we can't beat the market, we follow them. Being a true fundamentalist require dozens of patience and discipline. I guess none of us in the group ( sorry for 1 stick beat all people )have the ' ingredients ' yet. Well, so what ? Most importantly, make $$$ using the right and legal way. So either we are FA , 1/2 FA or FA+TA, is doesn't matter any longer. Just be wise and use legal resources and make your $$$. And be always ready return back some of your fortunes for those needy people. Stay wise. Amitabha
Anakin, paying RM20k for a motobike compare to RM60k for a toyota camry. Which one cheaper for you?
Never judge cheap or not by looking at the price itself. You have to look at the value of the counter. Eg. Kinsteel at RM1.5 compare to Masteel at RM1.80. Which one is cheaper?
just to let u know something b4 i do a write up on Low PE..
Is Repco traded at PE 100+ in year 1993 stand for high prospect in its future earning ?
Most of d stocks in china r selling at PE > 60 now.. that's y warren buffet n li kar sing asking ppl to take extra caution b4 they jump in... not over value n in mid bublle stage for china stocks ? still think that china stocks r more prospect than others ?
By asking ppl to buy high PE stocks , u r actually asking ppl to buy over value or costly stock !
DOnt mislead newbies if u yrself dont even understand fully what is low PE stand for !
Hi SAM & BEN,
Both of you are really knowledgeable, feel really inferior if I compared myself with you. Well, I will slowly acquire the knowledge and hope I get then chance to learn from you more.
GK Tan
Ha ha Fang_siah (TL) ..dont worry.. I am 100% confident with my FA method, yes.. just to tell u , warren buffet way of stock picking r suitable to US stocks or stock which is well doing in every corner fo d world such as coca cola, wallmart, AIA ... we r investing in local stocks, thus d ball games is different ! but there is one thing in common between my method n d great warren... see in value ^V^
Buying kancil @ 25 K is rather expensive as compared to buying brand new S class @ 150 K ! value..value that count !
$ifu $am n Ben, you 2 guys r really professional in analysing stocks. Follow u guys won't b wrong, so bought in Ornasteel 2day also @ 1.58.
n Ben, next time should call u $ifu Ben as well!
Cheers!
To all d gpacket victims, something is on going in gpacket lately, It is definitely not a FA play but based on d below, seems like it is more on corporate play ^V^ for those who bought at high, there is a light blinking there... read d below >>>
Highlights
Gaming: Springing some surprises
(Overweight)
Comments
Gamuda: Secures Investment Certificate for Yen So Park
(Hold; RM4.94; GAM MK; TP RM5.00)
Green Packet: Buys corporate office in PJ
(Buy; GRPB MK; RM2.76; TP RM4.30)
Steel: Ceiling price increased by 12%
(Overweight)
Green Packet has signed a share sale agreement with two vendors for the proposed
acquisition of 100% stake in Worldline Enterprise for RM39m. The proposed acquisition
would enable the company to own and use the property as its new corporate headquarters
to meet its current and long-term requirements. “The company will finance the purchase
consideration via a combination of internal-generated funds and/or bank borrowings.” (BT)
For some reason I can't tell what gpacket insider news, but believe me, good news will announce during mid of january 2008.
Mr. KT
Mind to share with us what is the TP for Gpacket ??
thank you very much...
Ben...i bought in Ecm at quite a high price...can i know if u already let go?coz now u guys only talk bout steel counter.im still new, need some advise.after the last 2 days rise...it went down already.will there be another rise soon?
from T.F.O.
sifu sam..
if US really go into recession, will the cny rally still goin2 happen??
and by the way..how do u determine whether there will be rally comin or not?..really curious to know..
For me FA its just a method to invest. It shouldn't be treated rigidly. For instance, IOI Corp - everyone will agree it is a quality stock with good fundamental business model, excellent management team. But I won't invest in this counter at least currently in bull (or someone insist to call it mini bull) market. The odd of losing money is higher than gaining to invest at high price.
For me, WB and BG method most useful during recession or bottom part of life cycle. Only during that time "patient" can give you awesome return.
I agree with TL to distribute some gain to those needee. I strongly believe retribution. What kind of seed planted, what kind of fruited in return.
Beside, pls dun name me sifu, I'm still far from that stage. ^_^
BUY ON RUMOURS, SELL ON NEWS??
There were some price hike rumours surrounding steel (metal NOT stocks)going around last week but unfortunately for the steel theme traders, it was only "5 mins hot" affair.
How else could anyone explain why the "steel" pullback in BSKL today?
Mkt not good? Maybe ..... but I still believe in selling on news.
To those who bought on rumours .... sorry fren.
Big boyz are pouring cold water on red hot steel ......Pzzzzzzzzz???
The patriach Deng once said : Black cat or White cat, the one that can able to catch mouse is good cat. Well applying to stock market, as long as fortune derive in legal manner without hurting other ( by means of spreading rumours or goreng tips ), is perfectly okay. On whether Sam is a black cat or white cat, TL is not so sure. But what TL damn sure is this Uncle Sam stream of winning in stock market is no pray-pray things. Fortune only follow those who practise wisdom & compassionate. For those who are narrow and arrogance, even if you follow 100% what WB and Li Ka Shing buy, you will tend to lose $$$. Why ? Fortune never follow U...because the heaven got ' eye '.
Chinese New Year is coming. Be generous and donate without thinking of reward. If you guys think that parting RM10 from your thousand of $$$$ winning in year 2007 is chicken feet, please do donate to Amitabha Center ( Public Bank Account - 3088928116 )Dun worry, is not my bank accounts. If you deposit using ATM cash machines, the name of the account will POP up for u to verify.
Amitabha. May fortune follow those with wisdom and compassion.
Buy on rumours sell on news is only applicable to those goreng n corporate play stocks not for those FA stocks which coming earning is highly promising like masteel,ona n liondiv !
Just like those who bought plantation stocks n oil stocks..their shares price keeps going up though d news already came out many times ! see d differences ?
They keep going up is bcos of their earning going up n up ! strong earning & FA that matter !
Buy on rumors sell on news...Wat about ECM?
Buying ECM is not bcos of rumours, it is FA + GE theme play, GE theme is still not started yet ! thus..i prefer to hold, simple common sense.. look at d volume when she dip, thin as compared to her rise volume 3 days ago. this means those who bought at >0.95 is still holding there !
It is just like bjcorp.. down up down up b4 she reached level of 1.56.
make sure u know d different btwn speculation n FA play.
FYI, I didnt know that ECM would be awarded an investment banking liecense b4 I jump in, thus where is my sell on news ?
If u r buying GE theme stock, buy b4 d announcement n sell after d announcement of GE, that's we called sell on news !
Sifu Sam and Ben,
Looks like fund managers are buying into Mulpha Int. Any comment on this counter?
ty sifu sam,coz i only have very small capital and just start touching share so i really need some advise.btw around when is the GE rally going to start?
same query as anon above.. i'm a newbie. so if i were to pick 3 counters to start off with, which would you pick Sam?
I'd go with :
- ECM at 0.9
- RCECAP at 0.84
- ONASTEL at 1.57
I'm going for short/medium term, at least based on your current FA/GE tactic.
thx!
Jack
When is GE theme play ? very soon from now till mid of Mac , most likely GE will fall on mid of March during school holidays.
Stocks for GE theme play :- UEMbldr, MRCB, terbrau, Mulpha, plus, k fima ....
Mulpha ? not a bad choice for GE theme play but I still prefer my Rcecap & ECM which is only traded in single digit PE , besides GE theme play, I still can rely on their FA if mkt goes againts me.
RCECAP & ECM my choice for short n mid term ^V^
U decide , bear in mind, my cost for d above stocks r lower than they traded now ^V^
hi ben,
how to calculate the Gearing ratio? thanks in advanced.
sadhu
Hi Sam,
Could you pls comment on CCB? Thanks
If u like high dividend yeild stock, CCB is one of them ^V^ slow n steady .
Gearing Ratio (debt to equity ratio)= Total interest bearing debt/total equity
Meow meow chin, as expected, u r still hovering here . well, as long as u r giving constructive & make sense comments, u r welcome to post it here.
Btw, pls send my regards to yr spt188 ,wendyq n all, tell them i missed them very much ^V^
Dear Sam,
wat do you think of scomi for GE play?
Uncle sam, u are damn chun, KLSE & Asia stocks really moved as u said . Bravo sam.
Added another 20 lots of Ecm at 0.92 . thx in advance.
Meow meow chin , get so angry ah ? aiyooooo..... ok lah.... will ignore all yr posting by now as per yr request looooooo
Sam , seems like luck is on my side today, went in rcecap at 0.845 as per your answer to david this afternoon, wohhhhh, it is now 0.875$$$$$$
TQ sam & david.
What do you guys think of Kenanga?
Using FA,
3 quarter net profit at 106million
Current price=0.97
Number of shares=624million
pe = (624*0.97)/106= 5.7
and there is still one quarter results to go which has not been announced yet?
P/E after last quarter announcement could be 5?
Fundamentally this is a good stock based on PE ?
ya. good stock (kenanga) But nobody goreng.. what for jump in. Unless u can patient to wait said more than one year??? oooo... Impossible.. Unless u willing to sacrifice
Wow, DPS under subscription by 50.87% !!! Tailow, did you subscribe it?
KLSE volume increased handsomely today, seems like we r on d right track to CNY bull...Ringgit closed at all time high, FF fund started to move in to shares based on our strong ringgit traded today.
Herbert , u r correct, there r still many good laggard FA stock which r still standing like a dead fish despite d strong rally by KLSE !
No doubt, if u buy FA stocks, sooner or later u will be rewarded but one must understand u will lose quite a lot of opportunity cost if stocks that u choosed r laggard !
Sun Tze art of law said :-to win a battle handsomely u must hv d below criterias >>
天時
地利
人和
Everybody know what is 天時,地利,人和.
Just like what i hv commentted in my previous posting of "Low PE ", :- u know it doesnt mean u understand it.
U understand it, doesnt mean u know how to apply it on stocks.
I will do a write up on 天時,地利,人和 b4 i cease blogging by this coming 28 FEB, u will understand better why sometimes my timing of stock picks r so accurate !
Just a breif one :- Plenitude < metro Kajang n Bkoon, they hv 天時 &地利 but they hv no 人和.
Though地利of my ranhill @ 1.395 is not as good as Plenitude n Metro kajang, but she has 天時 n 人和 for support, that's y she can come up so quickly from d bottom !
If u dont understand chinese, no worry, i will explain to u 天時,地利,人和 in my coming posting a week b4 I quit blogging ^V^
Hv a nice weekend. ^V^_____^V^
Sam, I would like to thanks you for your unselfish knowledge sharing .
Very much appreciated.
May god bless you & your family.
Looking forward to ur write up of 天時,地利&人和 eagerly.
Thx uncle sam
Aiyah $ifu $am so sad that u keep on saying quit blogging b4 28 feb, hope d world would just stop spinning on d 28 feb so that u'll still b around...
Impossible ... i know but just show how disappointed i'm or i should say we r...
so consider againlah...
i did, ben. anyway may d god be with me...
very busy & terribly jetlag, will join samgang again nxt week...
i hav sold my ecm, after read sam's comment, will buy back again.
just a suggestion 2 sam: please don't stop blogging, but u can stop buying any share, just give comment & direction to all d newbie, let them earn something this year, do u know this is karma too....pls consider
Hi Sam,
I have been following closely on your blog since few weeks ago.
U have taught me a lot but sadly u will cease blog on 28Feb while I am still picking up on level 1. Damn, I still have a lot to learn from u to reach your level. I have no choice but to leave my email here [lk_tatt@yahoo.com]
in case u wan to open a concert(possible bcoz of many fans) or pop out during the next bull. I will be the first one to sign up.
I would like to ask for your opinion which doesn't really relate to share investment and I hope that u won't laugh at my dumb question. How different IRB will charge income tax from the share gain? we have to keep all the previous transaction record or they will check with SC?
Thank u Sam.
Back to study time. Is great to have Sam aka sifu Sam around to teach.
For those who are not really understand on 天時, 地利, 人和.
Here is translating.
Climate, geographical, and human.
天時 = Climate
地利 = geographical
人和 = human
Sifu Sam is my candle of light,
When I was in the darkness he will always bright up the light and show me which way I should choose.
Uncle sam....can help to translate abit the chinese word ah?...not everyone can read chinese leh. Help help abit le. TQ TQ.
天時 = Climate
地利 = geographical
人和 = human
Yr direct translation is 100% correct but...
these 天時 = Climate,地利 = geographical,人和 = human r abit different from its actual meaning when u come to stock mkt ^V^
28 FEB is definitely my last date of blogging, anyway.. there r still sifus around here such as sifu Ben , tailou , TL n Annony..I will create a chat box on 1 March for u guys to participate in this blog ^V^
If our sifu need to post anything regarding their stock picks, email to me, I will post it up for u guys ^V^
Told u guys already, next year is not my year ! I dont want to bring u guys to holland n also hate to be named as tour guide to holland ha ha .
Stop investing in shares ? no way.. share investment gene already lived in my blood long long time ago,I cant stop myself from involving in shares mkt, what will I do is >> minimise my total holding from 500K+- to around 50K for fun playing , that's what I can do to fill my loneliness .
FYI, D method used by ben is quite similiar with my method , he has proven track records also, one good example was "BJcorp @ 0.50 ". I think he is able to guide u guys to d place called " financial freedom ".
TL N tailow also not bad, these r d sifus who can guide u to d right track of share investment.
Dont worry, if I managed to get a gem stock like what I found ijmwb @0.38 + , I will definitely post it on my blog, but I think it is very unlikely to hv that kind of gem esp in year 2008.
Wowww Dow down > 200 points after d jobless datas came out worse than estimated, seems like another rate cut is unavoidable !
more rate cut will lead to weak USD , weak USD will lead to strong asia currencies, hence, FF will move from west to east in both equity n property mkt. tighthen u seat belt for d coming CNY rally.
Gd night.
For those with plenty of bullets in hand, congras.
You should be able to do some bargain buy in next week. The market wide adjustment before CNY rally is coming.
I hope Fed will not dissapoint us again in 30 Jan rate cut. Otherwise we are going to have a bad chinese new year.
Fyi, market is expecting a 50bps cut. In another word, from 4.25% drop to 3.75%. Beside, China govt is going to escalate speed of appreciation of Yuan as a tool to hedge against inflation. Will BNM do the same? Very high chance especially government is going to raise steel/petrol/construction materials prices this year. In order to reduce the impact of these hike, strong currency is a must already. So what will happen to those FF that has invested in BURSA? Double gain, ie. capital gain + forex gain.
From yesterday's vol, believe FF start speculating BNM next move.
One more thing, for those who still bullish on Steel counters, you may take this adjustment to enter.
Source saying government has approved (signing agreement) the increase of steel price. But due to political factors, they do not dare to announce yet. It is good time to enter those laggard like Onastel since price hike is unavoidable.
Good news for those holding rcecap , Goldman sachs buying in rcecap , just like what they did to bjcorp , u see what i see :-
9296 RCECAP RCE CAPITAL BHD
Changes in Sub. S-hldr's Int. (29B)
Particulars of Shareholder 36
Name : The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
NRIC/Passport No./Company No. : 2923466
Nationality/Country of Incorporation : Delaware, U.S.A.
Address:
Corporation Trust Center, 1209 Orange Street, Wilmington, New Castle County,
Delaware 19801, U.S.A.
Descriptions (Class and Nominal Value):
Ordinary shares of RM0.10 each
Name and Address of Registered Holder:
Goldman Sachs International
Peterborough Court, 133 Fleet Street
London EC4A 2BB, United Kingdom
Details of Changes
Date of Notice : 02/01/2008
Transactions:
No. Date Transaction Type No of Shares Price (RM)
1. 26/12/2007 Acquired 100,000 -
2. 27/12/2007 Acquired 100,000 -
3. 28/12/2007 Acquired 100,000 -
4. 31/12/2007 Acquired 250,000 -
Circumstances by reason of which change has occurred:
Indirect interest through open market acquisition of shares of RCE Capital
Berhad by Goldman Sachs International ("GSI"). GSI is a subsidiary of Goldman
Sachs Holdings (U.K.), which is a subsidiary of Goldman Sachs Group Holdings
(U.K.), which is in turn a subsidiary of Goldman Sachs (UK) L.L.C. The Goldman
Sachs Group, Inc. is the direct holding company of Goldman Sachs (UK) L.L.C.
and the ultimate holding company of the other aforementioned entities.
天時 (mkt sentiment or bullish outlook ), 地利 (Fundamental )already there for RCEcap,left only 人和 ( interest of FF or participation of FF ).
Seems like 人和 is also coming on its way with d participation of Goldman sachs .
Good returns assured if u able to hold it till 28 Feb ^V^
鋼筋鋼坯頂價調高影響微‧鋼鐵業長期續看好
大馬財經 財經焦點 2008-01-04 18:18
（吉隆坡訊）鋼筋與鋼坯頂價調高12%，料打擊建築業與產業，對鋼鐵業影響也不大，因為鋼鐵業者早通過調高一些“隱藏”收費來彌補鋼鐵產品不准起價的衝擊。
國內外需求推動
分析員說，鋼筋與鋼坯起價將壓縮建築業者的賺幅，產業發展商雖受影響，但較輕微。
他們說，基於市場早以高出統制價進行交易，政府調高鋼筋與鋼坯頂價只是“撥亂扳正”。
不過，在國內外殷切需求推動和中國限制鋼鐵產品出口的烘托下，鋼鐵領域前景仍然看俏。
亞歐美研究披露，業者早已將各項“隱藏”收費如交通費計算在內，以讓鋼筋和鋼坯價格貼近國際水平，因此政府調高兩種鋼鐵產品頂價，只是反映價格。
達證券也說，上述價格調整已是意料中事，對鋼鐵業者影響甚微。一些承包商透露，在宣佈調漲前，業者已經以比頂價更高的價格交易。
“廢鐵價格按年上揚13%，未來料進一步走高，加上鐵礦石和媒炭價格揚升，將推高全球鋼鐵價格。”
價格調高12%
國內貿易及消費部於去年12月28日的通告中宣佈，鋼筋與鋼坯頂價將調高12%，其中鋼坯頂價增至每公噸1907至2035令吉，鋼筋頂價則增至每公噸2225至2419令吉。
僑豐研究分析員黃顯源也指出，此輪調漲只是跟隨國際鋼鐵價格做出調動，對鋼鐵業者賺幅沒有重大影響。
可填補中國出口限制缺口
“全球需求蓬勃和國際鋼鐵價格持續攀升，領域展望十分樂觀。”
他指出，東南亞區域國家每年進口500萬公噸鋼坯，其中60%從中國進口。隨著中國增稅限制出口，國內鋼鐵業者正可填補供應缺口。
他舉例，鋼鐵業者第3季亮眼業績，主要是鋼坯出口的推動，而非第9大馬計劃需求刺激。
第9大馬計劃是主要利因
不過，第9大馬計劃仍是主要利因，業者長期展望可期。
亞歐美研究說，頂價調升只是權宜之計，政府仍在探討採取自動報價機制（APM）。出口至新加坡鋼鐵價格，每公噸已經比國內頂價高出120令吉。
分析員表示，主要基建計劃如雙軌鐵道和彭雪跨州水供計劃落實使鋼鐵業受惠，而新加坡新綜合度假村的建設，也有助提振出口價格。
高頂價讓南達鋼鐵（SSTEEL，5665）、安裕資源（ANNJOO，6556）和錦記鋼鐵（KINSTEL，5060）等製造長鋼業者受惠良多。
亞歐美研究首選安裕資源，可能在該公司第4季業績發佈後上修財測。本益比最低的南達鋼鐵也值得關注。
該行指出，第9大馬計劃主要工程啟動，領域本益比有望提高至8至10倍。
賺幅料遭壓縮‧建築領域影響參半
鋼筋與鋼坯頂價調高對建築領域影響參半，業者賺幅料遭壓縮，惟第9大馬計劃工程陸續發放後，建築業前景依然可期，但分析員不排除依據個別公司狀況調整財測和評級。
公開投標工程賺幅下滑
僑豐研究分析員說，建築業者賺幅必遭壓縮，特別是公開投標工程的業者。
他指出，公開招標工程的稅前賺幅介於3%至5%，最終可能下滑至無盈虧或甚至虧損水平；相反的，談判招標稅前賺幅約14%至15%，衝擊不大。
此外，一些政府工程給予業者價格評估（valuation of price）補償，業者可以在原料成本後獲得補償。
“所以，以談判招標方式獲得工程，以及合約具備價格評估條款者，傷害最小。”
他以總值1億令吉政府基本建設工程為例說，其中25%為建築原料成本如洋灰、鋼鐵等；而鋼鐵佔原料成本的8%至10%。
或調整業者財測或評級
他不排除調整一些業者財測或評級，但對凈利賺幅影響少過1%。
達證券則指出，相信新工程已將建材價格高漲的衝擊計算在內，反而對2005年後期的工程建築業者帶來立即衝擊。
該行保持建築業者的財測，主因是所研究公司的手上工程以2006／2007年為主。
大馬研究卻認為私人工程和小承包商負面影響最大，參與政府工程和大建築商傷害較小。
該行指出，私人工程業者無法轉嫁成本，政府工程則會幫助業者吸納額外成本，其中以大型建築商吸收能力較佳。
“至於對個別公司的盈利影響，胥視手上工程種類而定。”
僑豐研究看好建築領域，由於大建築股估值飽和，建議投資者轉向小資本建築股。
額外成本可轉嫁‧房產展望正面
基於可將額外成本轉嫁，分析員相信鋼筋與鋼坯頂價調高對產業發展商沒有顯著影響，產業市場的購興也不會遭受打擊。
大馬研究說，鋼鐵並非房屋業主要原料，而且業者可以把額外成本轉嫁成本予消費者。
他指出，有地產業鋼鐵成本佔總成本少過5%，公寓相關成本或者較高。
“產業需求強勁、經濟向好、可提公積金每月償還房貸等政策已使產業價格有增無減，如今加上成本推動，房屋價格可能再創新高。”
即使油價高升、大道收費調漲、電費調高等潛在通貨膨脹風險打擊購屋意願，但分析員對產業的整體評價仍然正面。
僑豐研究分析員周恩雄也認為屋價揚升無損產業領域購興。
達證券卻說，鋼鐵頂價調升推高房價打擊需求，尤其是價格大眾化的房屋的市場。
Uncle sam, i have started a simple blog where i created a poll to see if your gang want you to continue blogging. Hope you dont mind.
Pls visit http://vfus.blogspot.com/ or click on my name.
Ps. vfus= vote for uncle sam
Those make money from my stock pick, please donate to V Ganabathirau family http://tonypua.blogspot.com/2007/12/donations-for-ganabathi.html
bro sam,
hahaha hope gs will accumulate more aggressively :o)
swapped engtex to rcecap
will add more on dip
128888 2u
hi ben...how did u determine a company to be "Net Cash Position" or a "Net Debt Position"? any other significance or conclusion that we can derive from these findings?
Thanks.
(^_^)
ben , mkt going strong despite dow 250pts plunge last week. can't get any bargain sales...
reenter ecm30@.925, onasteel 5@1.54,30@1.59, and more...what about u?? fully reload now...
sam, where is my feng shui map, cny is just 30days to go..i need to boost up my luck during cny..hehe
morning Sam.. how's the market this morning?
i bought 2 lots of RCECAP but seems to be hovering ~0.88 for now
RCECAP moving..good one SAM, lets see how far it goes..what do you think of ICAP btw, sam?
Dear Sam,
Let say you have RM1,000,000. what is the best approach to position size your stock purchase On each call?. appreciate you comments.
And what "factor/ratio" you use to check whether you are healty or not?
Seem like property stock is building up volume today.....
Regards
still confident with your pick of Keladi, 3rd quarter showing a good result, and interim dividend of 10%declared.....
bought 10 lot at 0.215 this morning,,,, :)
uncle sam, since you are not confident on your investment after Feb'08. why not continue your blog then let's us have a reference only. then we invest on our own risk. We should not blame u on any wrong picks as you are human not superhuman. hopefully u will consider to continue blogging.
Philips, I will post yr web here later..busy today..guys..rcecap ! buy on dip ! wont be long, latest by 28 Feb ...
Will come back to u guys when I am free.
Happy trading!
Vince 38... refer to my portfolio,follow myratio over there..Liondiv,masing N rcecap r my heaviest stake. reserveatleast50%in cash for any unforseen incident.
ACCORDING TO MASTER CHIN KUNG AND WHAT THE BUDDHA PREACH, MAN DICTATE HIS OWN DESTINY. WE ARE DESTINED FOR ALL THINGS BUT A MAN WITH WISDOM AND COMPASSION WILL ABLE TO RE-CREATE AND IMPROVE HIS OWN DESTINY BY PERFORMING GOOD DEEDS. MASTER CHIN KUNG DO ONCE SAID, IF MOVING NON-ALIVE THINGS LIKE TABLE AND CHAIRS, OR HAVING WHATEVER NON LIVING OBJECT CAN ENHANCE OUR FORTUNE, SO WHAT THE NEED TO HAVE A WORLD FULL OF PEOPLE WITH WISDOM AND COMPASSION ?
THE WORLD JUST NEED EITHER LILLIAN TOO OR JOEY YAP TO BECOME SAVIOR.
A PERSON WHO GAIN FORTUNE IS THOSE WHO ARE DESTINE TO ENJOY GOOD FORTUNE DUE TO HIS OR HER PLANTED SEEDS.
CERTAIN PEOPLE WHO ADOPTED F.SHUI AND SUDDENLY BECOME WEALTHY IS BECAUSE THEIR LIFE IS DESTINE TO GAIN THE GOOD FORTUNE. IS JUST THAT THE TIME HAS RIPEN AND THE CONDITION ARISE ONLY AT THAT TIME.
FORTUNE IS NOT FOR US TO SEEK. TO PRACTISE WISELY OUR CONDUCT AND FORTUNE SHALL FOLLOW YOU...IRREGARDLESS YOU WANT IT OR NOT.
A PERSON WHO PLANTED A DURIAN SEED WILL NOT GET A PAPAYA AT THE END.
AMITABHA.
Hi Sam,
Do you think PBBank-01 a good buy at current level. I had swap to PPBank-01 since i took profit from Liondiv, ECM and Mahsing.
Pls advice. By the way, do you consider any bluechip share worth buying?
Thanks...
Remember 2004? In 2004, market crashed after BN win big in elections. Do you want to lose money? If no, vote Opposition this election!
Sam,
i am thinking after you publish the news GS buying in the RCEcap , the volume pick up from the readers of this blog.
lol.
Good luck. i will buy in some too.
good morning Sifu Sam,
hmm..ur last statement was scary! "reserve cash for unforeseen incident"
but thanks for your honest sharing! I'm looking fwd to upward movement for RCECAP :)
pls add me to your mailing list :
davidjackham@yahoo.com
Cheers!
Yes.Tailow>I.still.owes.u.one.fen.shui.advice.ha.ha..as.u.know.i,just.came.back.from.holiday,lots.of.work.need.to.be.done.give.me.sometimes.i.will.post.it.here.ok?
Pilips,thanks.for.yr.sincere.help.but.i.dont.think.i.need.u.guys.to.vote.for.me...vote.for.FA.not.me!thx.
PBB?of.course.PBB.is.solid.FA.bluechip,but.if.u.r.talking.about.call.warrant...I.dont.think.I.dare.to.take.that.risk..anyway..good.luck.to.u.
Something.wrong.with.my.spacing.key.today.aa
Uncle sam, wat is you view on huaan?
below is wat i get from other FA analysis:-
Sino Huaan is one such counter which has been battered down. It's actually formerly known as Antah and after a restructuring and RTO exercise, it is now totally transformed with a whole new business and direction. From a high of RM1.79 several months ago, it's been battered severely down to RM0.83 sen. (13/12/07)
Huaan produces Metallurgical Coke which is used in steel factories as a source of power. Anyway, what can I say about Huuan? If you want a proxy for the steel market in China, Huaan is a good prospect. Demand for steel products is so high that China is about to curb its own steel exports to feed its own domestic market.
Can we say increasing steel activity bringing about increasing Coke prices? YES.
Unfortunately, we can also say that coal prices, which is a signifigant cost centre, are also increasing.
And looking at the 72% increase in Profits before tax from last year's RM27.2 million to the latest quarter's RM46.9 million, I'll say business is doing good.
You might be wondering what's going on with the dip in EPS, well, that's just a dilution effect from a very signifigant increase in shares as a result of the restructuring exercise. Annualized EPS will still come to 14.2 sen which would yield a PE ratio of 5.8 times. Not bad valuations really.
fr PMTEE
Sifu sifu...today market open nicely.everything going green green and green.hope will keep going green till end.But why ECM is not moving while all other are moving already?Ben,u still holding?i dont see u guys mention bout ECM already.pls coment as i still holding it.
Dear Sifu Sam,
I've been following ur blogsite for the past few months and I find it very educational and the approach using FA for investing in the stock market is the best.
Unfortunately, u have repeatedly mentioned that come 28/1/2008, u will cease blogging and I think this a terrible waste.
The reason for u to cease blogging is probably ur belief that 2008 is not a good year for u and I respect ur belief. U have also mentioned that while bloggers who have made money from the stock market they should not forget the unfortunate lot by donating some money for charitable causes.
Sifu, I believe that u can also continue to this good service to the investors and at the same time help society to do something for the unfortunate lot.
Please consider this suggestion;
U have previously mentioned in ur comment that u could get some revenue by accepting advertisements from interested parties and I believe there is no shortage of interested companies, considering the popularity of this blog site. The quantum of revenue to be donated to society is entirely ur decision and no one will ever raise a question, as long as it is for the benefit of the unfortunate. In this way, u can continue to plant ur trees of care, hope, love and compassion by donating part of the revenue to charity and at the same time help to educate the investors to invest smartly through FA.
As TL has said if u plant a durian seed u get the durian fruit and in ur case if u plant the seeds mentioned above u will get these fruits. Remember what we are planting now is for the benefit of our fiture generations.
If u want to get fellow bloggers' response on this suggestion for u to make a decision pl publish this comment for the feedback
AMITABHA
Yahooo//ECM & RCECAP start moving $$$$$$$$$
Love u uncle sam
Sam, rmb skpres...? until now still dont see any encouraging movement on it lehh.....
dear sifoo..
something is brewing in rcecap..everytime the price tries 0.90, somehow it gets pushed down..the volume is high also, what is happening?..are goldman sachs still holding or are they disposing?
What to do ? Skpres is just like Plenitude n metrokajang, lack of人和 ^V^
Hold n be patient lollll ^V^ I am also holding wat !?
Uncle Sam
I fully agreed with Mr BCT, cease blogging means great lost for all your followers.
Please consider the proposal put up by Mr BCT. We are willing to donate some money through you blog once you set up the charitable move.
Fr PMTEE
DPS is lack of power, will somebody please get some balance vigra from Doc Chuah SL.
fr PMTEE
Billabong..dont get so excited about his rise, be cool n patient man.. just hold on to yr existing shreas..u will lough all d way to bank by this coming cny.
0.90 for rcecap u feel happy ? sorry...mine is far above that ^V^
Hold bros...GE theme just started ..more to come $$$$$$
To BCT n all..thanks for yr support... not for supporting me..but d old folks n those who need help, u made from society , hence u should contribute back to society ^V^
Dont forget to do donation by this coming CNY, u made big bucks from KLSE, u should donate big, u made less u donate less lohhh
what i can tell is 2008 will not be as good as 2007, SSEX is heading 8000+, i cant imagine how bad it would be if she jump down from 8000 points !!
Told u guys many times already..from track bull mkt records, d longest bull was 22 months+, shorter was 18 months.. we are far over due , when time to retreat ! RETREAT !
Still bullish on 1st qtr of 2008, after that ? .... i choosed to retreat ^V^ make less is better than lose money ^V^
Y election will be held in March ?
1) Crude oil hitting 100, they cannot tahan anymore, but they just can't raise d oil price b4 election, hence they will try to held it asap, check d year holdiays, d nearest one is school holidays in March.
2) SSEx n d regional mkt r at almost historical high, 2nd n 3 rd qtr 08 is in danger zone of bubble burst, hence, whether they like it or not, they will held it in 1st qtr of 08 !
In year 1993 during super bull run, we were at 1,314 where Hangseng was around 16,000+- , look at Hangseng today, they were once 30,0000 points as compared to us only at 1, 400+, there is lot of catching up to be done, but... no way we can catch it up to 2,000, cos time is running out.
Buy 2molo ? just to tell u that this coming Thurdays is a holiday for awal muharam.
Sam.. public holiday means don't buy?
Can I get your opinion.. RAMUNIA or KENCANA?
Thanks!! Holding on to my RCECAP now :)
yes sir, sifu sam..this is my first time placing an order based on your call..so im excited..lol..have a nice day sifu, market very green 2day, hope i will laugh all they way to the bank like you said. kam siah!
Public holiday means there will be some profit taking a day b4 that, buy on dip but dont buy N chase at high !
I believed KLSE is doing some catching up , it will sail higher , d coming FED int cut will further strengthen Asia currecies esp rmb n ringgit, thus..Pre n post CNY r almost certain ^V^
Unless I found something worth for swap, otherwise I will hold till GE announcement or my TP ,which ever is earlier.
I will not buy in stocks with PE >20 ! further more , their track earning records r not so convincing enough, crude oil hitting 200 by end of 08 ? buy O N G stocks ?
Playing oil hike theme ? y not u go for plantaion stocks ? same also !
Look at cepat @1.50+! debt free stock after its recent asset disposal, she is in plantation also ^V^ PE <10, NTA 1.36 with great earning potential ahead ^V^
yes i'm playing themes.. its true ONG earnings are not up to mark yet, but i guess i'm attracted by the huge volume done today on the ONG counters. Speculative of me, not very FA :P
CEPAT PE<10 for FA/Plant play.
KENCANA PE~30 for ONG
RAMUNIA PE>10 for ONG
hmm.. thanks for your input sifu! i'll monitor tmrw and hopefully get some bargains after the selloff.
hey sam,
found this on cepat..
Kuala Lumpur High Court Civil Suit No. D3-22-1168-2004
Kuala Lumpur High Court Civil Suit No. D3-22-1168-2004 Cepatwawasan Group
Berhad and Prolific Yield Sdn. Bhd. v Tengku Dato' Kamal Ibni Sultan Sir Abu
Bakar and 17 others
Further to the announcement on 13 November 2007 regarding the Civil Suit No
D3-22-1168-2004 by Cepatwawasan Group Berhad ("the Company") and its
subsidiary, Prolific Yield Sdn. Bhd. against the following persons:
1. Tengku Dato' Kamal Ibni Sultan Sir Abu Bakar (NRIC: 611008-06-5021) - 1st
Defendant;
2. Lt Kol Tengku Dato' Kamarul Zaman Ibni Sultan Sir Abu Bakar (NRIC:
621104-06-5135) - 2nd Defendant;
3. Kassim bin Mohamed Ali (NRIC: 570718-10-5915) - 3rd Defendant;
4. Abdul Rahim bin Sendiri (NRIC: 460708-06-5203) - 4th Defendant;
5. Opti Temasek Sdn. Bhd. (Company No. 650698-D) - 5th Defendant;
6. Yip Kum Wah (NRIC: 390923-08-5783) - 6th Defendant;
7. Lee Ah Lan (NRIC: 501002-05-5394) - 7th Defendant;
8. Sheikh Abdul Rahim bin Sheikh Hassan (NRIC: 681026-06-5133) - 8th Defendant;
9. Yip Fook Yian (NRIC: 701106-08-5557) - 9th Defendant;
10. Yip Chee Meng (NRIC: 690422-08-5771) - 10th Defendant;
11. Yip Ha @ Yip See Khow (NRIC: 2708621) - 11th Defendant;
12. Chew Poh Kong (also known as Paul Hew) (NRIC: 460810-08-5075) - 12th
Defendant;
13. Hew Yen Fatt (also known as Patrick Hew) (NRIC: 550131-10-5555) - 13th
Defendant;
14. Tan Sri Datuk Chai Kin Kong (NRIC: 590825-06-5179) - 14th Defendant;
15. Dato Chua Tiong Moon (NRIC: 590831-06-5179) - 15th Defendant;
16. Chai Kim Chong (NRIC: 620118-06-5035) - 16th Defendant;
17. Chai Woon Chet (also known as Eddie Chai) - 17th Defendant; and
18. Tan Kok Aun (NRIC: 580522-08-5907) - 18th Defendant,
for recovery of :-
? RM13 million which was wrongfully and fraudulently paid out by the former
directors of Prolific Yield Sdn. Bhd. to Opti Temasek Sdn. Bhd. as advance; and
? RM3 million which was wrongfully and fraudulently paid to a Sheikh Abdul
Rahim bin Sheikh Hassan (NRIC: 681026-06-5133) as advance with no interest and
no fixed term of repayment,
the Board of Directors of the Company wishes to announce that the case
management of this matter and the hearing of the 7th Defendant's application to
extract certain items from the bank safe deposit fixed on today is now
adjourned to 12 February 2008 because the Judge is on leave.
Dated this 13th day of December 2007
dont know hw significant it is though to the fact that as you said has a good future ahead.
David..forgot to mention, yr ramunia n kecana can be considered as GE theme play also . if u aim for trading buy is ok..but dont go for long term hold.
Reminbi, what u found r already taken in to ac, cepat is nowa debt free company, its earning shot up in its latest QE n more to come in year 2008, 2 qtrs giving u eps of 9.81cts, conservatively 20cts for full year is nota problem esp in plantation sector.
look at today volume... slowly but surely.
FYI, I hv zero holding in cepat, telling u guys about cepat is bcos someone asked me about O N G play, ONG play is actually plantation play also, thus cepat is one of yr choice.
thanks for your comments Sam. yes i'm going for shorter term trading buy, so the ONG/GE/high volume is very attractive to me.. currently in queue to buy KENCANA@2.49
in terms of FA, CEPAT looks very good. another excellent analysis by our Sifu!
Sifu Sam,
Wat do you think of Scomi? Worth to hold for general election theme play?
Attach its an article on scomi by goldman sach released laz year oct
Oil and gas sector capex cycle to benefit Scomi
Goldman Sachs: Group well positioned to gain from sector’s growth
PETALING JAYA: Scomi Group Bhd may be a beneficiary of a capital expenditure (capex) cycle in the oil and gas sector, where there is sustained earnings growth for select equipment companies due to high oil prices.
The price of crude has hovered around US$80 per barrel in the last few weeks.
Scomi Group, which has four other listed companies in Singapore and Malaysia, has businesses in oil services and energy logistics. It has a current order book of RM1.6bil.
In a statement, US-based investment bank Goldman Sachs said the exploration and production capex trade was a developing theme and that Scomi Group was among the companies in the sector that would benefit.
It recommended buying the stock at RM2.25 based on sum-of-parts net asset valuation with a potential fair value of between RM2.10 and RM2.20, implying a 45% to 50% upside.
“We believe Scomi Group is uniquely positioned to benefit from the structural growth in the sector. Our analysis suggests the stock is significantly undervalued and valuation does not reflect its competitive positioning in the sector,” Goldman Sachs said, adding that other catalysts included potential mergers and acquisitions in the sector, upward estimate revisions and potential restructuring events.
It said there might be a potential partial listing of the group’s oil field services businesses or even sale of a listed subsidiary. The company had recently restructured its oil services business by selling a stake to Standard Chartered Private Equity and deleveraged its balance sheet.
Goldman Sachs said the oil and gas equipment manufacturer had an attractive valuation of 11.5 times price to earnings for next year with an enterprise value over earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of 7.8 times.
For the year ended Dec 31, 2006, Scomi Group posted a net profit of RM84.5mil on revenue of RM1.57bil.
Just back from business trip. So tiring.
Wow! seems like I missed the GE themeplay party. Seems like Pak La is going to announce date of GE this month after showing how "capable" he is to solve the shortage of cooking oil crisis in Malaysia.
Tailow, no doubt GE themeplay has reverse the downtrend of NYSE. Seems like GE themeplay will continue this week. Just pray party able to sustain until CNY. ^_^
Hi Sam,is keladi considered a plantation play too as they have oil palm plantations and plantings interest. What do you think of this counter - seems volume is there for the past few trading days? thanks...
Cash rich company - ECM is going to buy back 10% of issued and paid up capital.
Good news + GE themeplay, heyhey, I can smell the money.
=================================
ECM LIBRA AVENUE BERHAD (“ELAB” OR THE “COMPANY”)
Proposed purchase of own ordinary shares for up to ten per centum (10%) of the issued and paid-up share capital of the company (“Proposed Share Buy-Back”)
Hi Sam I m one of your follower. Recently just came across the below article and think may be thought
provocative.
Singapore is poised to grow in the next five years even if there is a slowdown in the American and European economies, predicted Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew last night.
And if its growth continues for yet another 5 years, Singapore will be elevated to a new economic status comparable to that of Austria and Italy, he added.
Thus, it is important that Singapore consolidates what it has today to strengthen its position.
"We are now at the table with a very large number of chips."
"Let's move cautiously."
Mr Lee was speaking to some 700 academics and government leaders, including Foreign Minister George Yeo and Finance and Education Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam, at a dinner marking the 40th anniversary of think-tank Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.
In an hour-long dialogue, he fielded 12 questions that ran the gamut from Asean unity to Singaporean's social graces.
Mr Lee's comments on the economy come just days after the Government announced a forecast of more moderate growth of 4.5 per cent to 6.5 per cent for the year. The projections come against a backdrop of concerns over rising costs and a slowdown of the US economy.
At last night's dialogue, a member from the Deutsche Bank asked Mr Lee what his "inspirations and dreams" for Singapore were.
The elder statesman painted a picture of how the country's economy would look like in the next decade.
"In five years, Singapore will be at a different plateau."
"The old Singapore, we are leaving behind."
He explained that even if there was a slowdown in the US and Europe, the Chinese and Indian economies would continue to grow from 8 to 11 per cent, giving Singapore "an extra lift".
The two integrated resorts and the Formula One coming to Singapore will boost the tourism and hospitality industry.
Already, the property market and the banking and financial services industry are reaping the benefits.
"So at the end of five years I think we should be, barring accidents, at a different plateau. If that continues for another five years, I believe we will be more like, say, an Italy or an Austria of today , which isn't bad, considering where we started from," said Mr Lee.
Italy is a member of the Group of 7 (G7) rich industrialised countries, and Austria is one of the 10 richest countries in the world in terms of GDP per capita.
This is a far cry from Singapore in its early days. Said Mr Lee: "We had zero reserves in 1959, and in 1965 not many people gave us high ratings for survival, never mind success."
"So be grateful that we are where we are and be mindful that we consolidate what we have and don't risk it."
He concluded: "We should be doing all right for the next five to ten years."
What a leader. what a genius.
By the way, thanks for giving me
such a wonderful learning experience.
sifu sam,
is Insas Berhad a GE theme counter?
star, oh my god, i think you discovered a gem in Insas. I looked at the fundamentals, it is fantastic. Sifu Sam please comment.
$ifu $am, seems like only d GLC stockc gained d most yesterday. If talking about Plantation stock, is UNICO a good buy?
After reading fa article regarding S'pore's future, reminded me of 1 documentary of how S'pore government plans for his residential project. They're just so smart n efficient in planning 4 d future compared 2 our government. Just look at most of our "Tamans", Houses first, Infrastructure later! D worst planning was d flyover could b just in front of ur house! 2 examples: Subang Sunway n Sri Petaling.
Insas ? of course she is under GE theme play also.. PE around 10+-, not a bad choice, in fact it is good for Trading play in short term. go for it since its volume already there.
I always read yr blog here sam and i bought also the counters u have tipped. But at the same time i did my own research too and bought a few other counters also.
So for those who have been following this blog hope u all can make up yr own mind and dont just depend on sam. Do yr own research too.
At time like this, its better for us to make money as much as we can.
Recently i bought ecm but sold them at profit and today i reenter again.
Yesterday i bought uembldr and kinsteel.
Anyway thanks sam for yr foc info.Hopefully u can stay as long as u can.
Yahoooo $$$$$$ECM coming 0.97, ha ha ha..
sam you are the best.. yupp thanks ben also.
sam, I hope you will change your mind from stop blogging.
we need you very much.
2 FA, this is d differences btwn brain play n non brain play, Singapore able ro stand high n proud is bcos of their brainy leader, tell me what resources they hv besides human brain ?
There is nothing to proud of If u tell me u r rich n holding high position bcos of yr wealthy back ground !
ha ha too much involving politic ..ha ha stop here..let focus back in shares mkt.
To alls, born in poor is not our fault , n also not our parent's fault!
U can make things change by using yr brain , if u r not smart enough , nvm, follow d smart dudes !
Ppl like Li kar sing , warren buffet , bill gates r all smart ppl, follow their method ! u can change yr life !
d worst is , if u r not smart enough but still u think u r smart ! ha ha...god also cant help u !
Bro Sam, main purpose for me posted the article here was here: -
He explained that even if there was a slowdown in the US and Europe, the Chinese and Indian economies would continue to grow from 8 to 11 per cent, giving Singapore "an extra lift".
Haha even LKY believes asia has a
stronger resilient base to us recession.
judging from this, since m'sia market is traditionally more defensive, i think we will have lots of hot money coming in especially now till june.
Seems like I missed lots of money making opportunities last two days when I was on business trip.
Not going to enter anymore right now unless profit taking activities started. Currently holding Tebrau and Equine for GE themeplay. (These two counters are definitely not FA) Just to take some quick profit otherwise feel like being left out. haha ^_^
TL once said : A fool always think he is wise , while a wise man always think he is a fool.
Master Yin Guang once said : A wise man is those who always correct oneself and not pointing out others fault. To try find other people fault is truly reflecting our own weakness.
Amitabha
* Coming back to stock market, regarding this counter CEPAT, i urge those who have interest to get into the act, please place great caution by studying the company pass history. This company is kind of a mess with dog bite dog ( Board & shareholder ) story.
TL..Cepat past records smell like shit ! but now is totally different ! go deep into it, find out d gem yrself ^V^
FA, check my past posting somewhere in Oct 07 when someone said mkt is going to crash during d subprime crisis, I gave my views that when one giant getting sick we hv another 2 dragons to rely on (China n India ) ^V^.
Mkt will only crash if d other 2 also fall in sick .
^V^
Mr FA, this how uncle sam bull shitting >
http://samgang.blogspot.com/2007/09/v-remember-what-i-hv-posted-last-week-v.html
^V^
I said :- short term uncertain, mid n long term ( till next cny ) bullish ^V^
Why ?
1) FED hv to cut its rate, is only matter of time, if not d coming one should be d next coming one, they got no choice !
2)If US really fall into recession, China "s local demand is more than enough to
sustain its economy growth for at 1 to 2 years time.
3)As known to u, when one currency fall, d other one will up, once USD depreciated, Asian currencies esp RMB n ringgit will definitely appreciate, thus fund will flow into Asia esp stock n property mkt ( u can see it from d rise of Hang Seng lately )^V^
4) Those days, we hv only one economy machine running, now is different ball game ! we hv India n China on d run, thus d impact from US recession will not be greater as b4, that's for sure !
It seemed I am very optimistic on d out look of Asia mkt, in fact, I am not !.. know why i wanted to quit blogging by 28 of Feb 08 ? coz i foresee there will be a world crisis towards d end of 2008, it could be earlier than that ! ha ha do i sound like a fortune teller ? to be frank..yes..i am ha ha ..don't ask me why i predicted so..i hv my reasons ^V^
Read d below :-
***
August 21, 2007
Master Chin Kung once said : A clouded and corrupted mind make unwise decision, while a pure and clear mind make a wise decision.
So whether " CEPAT " or " LAMBAT ", a " GEM " or a " GERM ", the right to invest in stock is purely " one type of rice feed thousand type of people ".
Once decision make, please do ready to harvest the fruit or otherwise take the blunder.
He who able to see ^value^ from a heap of rubbish dump, is the one who harvest most.
Take care Bro Sam....TL salute U ! Is always great to exchange with you. By the way, if this CNY you balik kampung and meet up with Chan C C ( my ex-U mate ), please send my warmest regards to him.
May Amitabha Bless U Always.
Sam, our mahsing coming 2.06 already $$$$$$ fuyohhhhh
thanks sam .
wow Sam.. your mahsing shot up today.
up 20sen at the moment!
Sam, thanks for Mahsing. ^_^
Uncle sam, I am so lucky to know your blog through investmentlink web, I made good gain from your Mahsing & Liondiv , I can't follow every stocks you bought due to limited fund.
I wish you can show us your latest portfolio coz I have just dispose off my Mahsing at 2.15. I want to know which are your heavyweight among the all.
Thx sifu.
Dear Sifu Sam,
Thanks for your Mahsing & Masteel.
Cheers....
Sam....
What can I say... You came through time and time again. Like others, I too made some $$$ from your advice.
Thank you once again and may god bless you. Wohooooo....
U r welcome Ben.. street money only.. I have to thanks u for yr alert on ecm too.
To all mahsing holders who bought @ 1.68, happy n sastify with 50cts gain from mahsing ?
For me , no ! more to come bros ^V^ besides its PE < 10 @ 1.68, d most gem part was its unbilled sales of 1bil !!! lots of FF giving its fair value @ >3.00, some r giving 3.80 !
if there is nothing worth for me to swap, I will hold it till >2.50 or 28 Feb which ever is earlier.
N oso, no need to thanks me , thanks FA , is FA method that make me what I am today ^V^
TL , Ben n Tailow , wanna to take over my blog after 28 FEB ?
Tailow, mind to tell me yr hse facing again ? I know I still owes u one feng shui advice ..ha ha
To lilian, I am quite busy at this moment, regarding yr request..hmmmm
let see if I am free..ok ?
big bro Sam,
i am sad because i did not join your blog earlier and missed the mahsing 50c boat!
since you are gunning for 2.50 or 28Feb, would it be advisable for me to buy on dip on Friday?
or get ECM instead?
limited funds so i can only get 1 counter.
thanks again for your advice!!
sifu sam,
how do u determine which counters is GE theme?
thanks
Hi, Uncle Sam, i have bought RCECAP at 89 sen, what is your target price to sell.
Sam, your analysis was fantastic and
yes i read when you first posted it.
now markets in asia are starting to believe this. like you said we still have few months to cari makan before all the aunties and uncles ignore US and screaming for shares days and nights.
btw, on the poor and rich things, just read that IOI big boss Lee had tried pig farming and petrol station during his difficult years.
Sifu Ben,
can i know why u will choose EQUINE & TEBRAU for GE themeplay ?? Both company make loss isn't it ?? Or politic background make "them" FLY ??
thanks and regards
Bro Sam
TL only got 1 wish when I decided to ' choong chut kong wu ' after lapse of so many years.
TL wish is to share & learn your wisdom. If you are leaving, TL will leave too........do not forget, we have previously chop chicken head and mix with drops of our blood too.
WHile I come back this time is without attachment, should I be leaving, there be no attachment too.
If you really got the heart to sail thru this 2008 turbulence with me, TL is ready to ' climb high mountain, and go deep into hot oil wok ' with U.
Long story cut short : Brother forever !
Hi Guy
I have problem accessing the website. Is there anybody can advise me once the site is posted with new message, it will direct send to my e-mail inbox. Or alternatively when I want to post new message, I just can post from my Outlook Express without going into this blog site.
Thank you & Amitabha
Anyone here know what is GE means? Can someone share with me? Thanks!
As I said, I just bought for GE themeplay. Reason I select Tebrau, simply because I stay next to it and knowing the major shareholder is Johor Govt.
As for Equine, I just speculate the recent private placement is for the purpose of increasing its stake in Abad Naluri fr 25%. ps: private placement was issued at RM2.50+ as per the proposal. Beside, everyone knowing the relationship of Patrick and KJ right?
These are mere speculative, I just invest for fun only, pls do not follow.
Sam, thanks for your offer. But I doubt I am as good as you and TL. You two just like 刘备 and 曹操. While me and Tailow just like 项羽 and 张飞. ^_^
Not everyone can be a leader or number 1. For me, number 3 is more than enough already. Haha.
Aiyahh TL,a bit difficult lah..
First :- Next year is not my year anymore, I dont want to sink yr boat down ^V^
2)I think I had enough from d return of my share investment. is time for me to take a rest.
3)After 28 Feb, I will reduce my holding from 500K to about 50 to 80K only, I will be more on hit n run (FA also ), hence, I am afraid I cant post my call b4 hand as usual anymore.
Bro, u r not fighting alone here, lBen & tailow will fly n sink together with u wat ? right Ben n Tailow ? just post yr analysis like what u did in old stlgang blog, as u always said:-
Ngo wai yan yan, yan yan wei ngo ? right ?
I hv 100% confident on u.
Yah b4 I forget, I think u hv something to say on Topglove, email to me yr analysis, I will post it up in front page.
YK, I said Tebrau is a GE theme play stocks, I didnt say it is a solid FA stock .
She used to be a lousy stock but things has changed after d IDR projects, but anyhow, I will never buy high PE stocks that rely on news n projects !
WOww..TL..we r 刘备 and 曹操.!?? While Ben and Tailow just like 项羽 and 张飞. ha ha i like that..so we all r die hard bros lohh !?
To be frank... I dont like 刘备 and 曹操. I like "Choo Ge Liang " though he is not a leader but I admires his intelligence ^V^He is d master mind of d whole game . I wish I can be 10% intelligent like him but sorry to say , due to constrain of my IQ , 5% of his IQ is d maximum for me..ha ha
Ben, From yr comments about Tebrau n Eguine , U r good in 人和 ! Wind , projects , big guys buying n who r d big guys behind d screen . that 's y most of yr picks striked ^V^
Well done Ben^V^
Dont runaway U 3 buggers ! take over my blog n I be d blog moderator for u guys after 28FEB !
utusan is GE play?
Hi All Brothers,
No doubt we did not born on the same date same year, but we will cease blogging on the same day and same year.
TL, before you post any comment, you just sign in as Fang_siah. Tick follow comment to be sent to your email address before clicking "publish your comment".
After that, you should be able to receive email notification if there are any subsequent post made after your comment.
I personally agree with Sam that we should reduce exposure to high risks investment such as share market to as minimal as possible after CNY or GE or maybe Beijing Olympics. Obviously current KLSE become immune to the US downfall are due to GE and CNY themeplay. So my question is how long can this rally sustain? It is common sense that nothing can last forever.
So what will happen after CNY? We still have GE to support; what about after GE? We still have Olympic mah. Then what after Olympic? Do we have anything to support? As per Sam, domestic demand of China and India can keep the 2 emerging giant running. I only agree to certain extent.
Do you guys still remember the catastrophic created by Enron, world.com and many others? Even advanced countries like US, Australia can’t avoid fraudulence; do you think can the emerging countries like China, India and Vietnam able to prevent this to happen? Everyone is greedy, it is a human nature. For instance, last year management reported earning rose 2 folds so share price surged, the following year shareholders are all eagerly waiting to hear another record earning of the company. But it is not possible to have record earning every year, historically, share price plunge even the company par the earning with previous year. It is not difficult to understand the heavy pressure on management of the company. One easy approach to keep everyone happy is frausified accounting!! One classic example is the collapsed of Barings Bank which simply due to one dishonest young trader who can’t accept failure.
So after Olympics (or earlier) accounting scandals of any one of blue chip counters in these countries (or other advanced countries) can send the whole world to recession. Especially the subprime issue still around.
Of course, this is mere prediction. A lot of professional are saying this round will be "soft landing", but I don’t see any reason that is solid enough to defer the 10 years bear market cycle to come. Just like Sam said, Hangseng was only 14,000 during 1997 crisis, now already 30,000. Don’t tell me you believe Hangseng can rise to infinitive.
I’m not trying to scare you all but just to highlight the importance of balancing risk and rewards. No point to risks 10k just for the sake of 1k, eventhough it constitute 10% return. For me, every investment must make at least 30% of return only considered as good investment.
To make money like Sam, you have to be disciplinary. Look at Sam, he always keep his cash to shares ratio at 1 to 1 even he has made 500k profit; he only invest in FA stocks, “slowly but surely” and “retreat resistant” are the common characters of FA stocks.
GEge=GENERAL ELECTION
In actual, GE stocks r only limited to those MCA, MIC n UMNO counters, now d scenario has a little change , those stocks link to 9MP projects also named as GE play, even those which r not under GE but ppl thought they r GE play has become GE stock already ha ha... In short :-
Stocks got anything to do with Government projects r now becomes GE stocks automatically .
Well said Ben , that was what I am worry also..I might be wrong, there might be another rally after 1st Qtr, I dont know but I hv no guts to take that risk !
To me: after CNY n GE rally, make less money is better than lose money !
Sam
For Top Glove, I share not include this stock in the blog as I want all buddies here to concentrate on the ^ 10 bagger ^ stock. For 2008, I sleep & eat with Lion Div ( Makan Lion D, Tidur pun Lion D )The stock which I am drumming hot now is Lion Diversified. This lion was recently being cut and trim all his beard by William Cheng ( Parkson Demerger ) and now need to take some time to grow back. ( The mega billion DRI only commence operation in 1st Q 2008 ). Icapital, Tan Teng Boo is banging hard for forecasted EPS $0.30 which translated into current 6X ( based on share price $2.03 ) Adding oil to fire, if William Cheng decided to use LION DIV as vehicle to run the mega billion Vietnam steel project ( in which MOU already been signed recently ), will certainly give a big boost. Also not to mentioned your ^ sharp eye ^ which did earlier mentioned about the SOLID CASH in RM500 million nominal value 3-year 3.5% coupon redeemable convertible secured loan stocks in Parkson.
I expect in the event of this Vietnam steel given to LION DIV to run, William Cheng will raise capital $$$ via some ^ engineered ^ mastermind corporate exercise ^
Until then, patience is the only game for ME.
sam, my house is facing south-east and my sleeping position is facing d west, so what do u see....
mkt rally is on , bro, take profit if u think u hav enough, not too greedy, remember nobody can predict d weather..d GE most likely will b on march (school holiday) paklah will never give us any surprise, lim kit siang predicted that d GE will fall on d 15 day of CNY, remember once BN win d election, d mkt will collapse...haha
sold mahsing & uemwld, sam, onasteel still not moving (not many ppl interested)despite mkt rally, just wonder y???
ben , very difficuly to get used 2 "multiply", will spent some time on it during holiday, cute litter girl u hav, really admire u, u must hav married early.....b4 26yrs old..
today, most asia pacific mkts turn red, especially hang seng, so KLSE might see a small profit taking on friday if DOW 2nite turns red also..
guys keep an eye on some cheap counters like keladi,airasia...
Tailow..now still not d time to sell yet...Mkt volume just picking up ! it wont end there so quickly, further more.. FED will hv another big cut by this month end, I will hold till my TP or Ge announcement which ever is earlier but definitely not now.
Yes agreed with u that Ben has a cure pretty daughter..n also a lovely wife. all these r something we cant buy with money ^V^
Regarding yr Fengshui.. i am doing a write up on 天時地利人和, will post yours by next week.
Sifu Sam and Sifu Ben,
noted and thanks for sharing...
:)
Sam,
What is your strategy after GE? (should be in latest stage of bull-early stage of bear).
Wah sam also good in FS, my house facing N, any good "wind" blow into my house for next year ?^_^
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