^V^
Feng Shui :- many thought feng shui is bullshitting n baseless, let me give u an example.. what is feng shui, feng shui is to find a best place for someone/something to stay so that he can get better luck /energy/ability to achieve what he wants .
Example.. if u have a racing F1 car, if u put her on grass track, her performance will definitely come down as compared to putting her on racing track .
This is what u called Feng Shui, put things at d right place ^V^
If u r fated to hv 1 billion in yr life , U will get all d 1 billion if u r staying at right feng shui ( right place ).
If u stayed at wrong feng shui ( wrong hse ) u will not get all d fated 1 billion , may be u will only get 500 million !
If Li Kar Sing 's son is fated to hv 100 billion in his life , he may not get all d 100 billion if he stayed at wrong place..but no matter what... 100 billion or 5 billion , he is still a rich bugger ! this is called fated life !
Feng Shui can enhance u to maximise what u suppose to have, without it, u may not get as what it has fated 2 u by god.
Tay Hong Piow, Li Kar Sing , Li hong Kay ,China Government , stanley Ho & many more... all believed in Feng Shui, u dare to call them unsound man ?
Make it simple, a FI racing car which can run 400km/H on racing track, if u put her on grass track, do u think she can maximise her limit ?
If u r fated to hv 100 mil in yr life, staying at right feng shui ( hse) will enhance u to maximise what has fated to u .
This is Feng Shui ^V^
U may come n ask me..Y I am still poor after consulted by feng shui master ?
Well ^V^ simple !
Coz u r not born as a F1 racing car, may be u r born to be a 100KM/h kancil (Fated life ), therefore, even if i put u on racing track also ,u will never achieve d speed of d F1 car.
Although u cannot run as fast as d F1 car, but putting u on racing track will make u run better n smoother as compared to grass track. in short means make yr life easier n smoother.
1)Fated life ( 1 命 )
2)Luck ( 2 运 )
3)Feng Shui ( 3 风水 )
4) Karma ( 4 阴德 )
5) Study or education. ( 5 读书 )
To those so called educated n civilised ppl ,if u think reincarnation n Jesus came alive after death r not supertitous , why Feng Shui is so supertitous in d eyes of u ? just bcos there is no scientific proof on FS ? perhaps u should show me d scientific proof of Jesus came alive after death n also reincarnation.
can u ? Mr civilised ?
I believed in Buddha that's y i believed in FS too ^V^
153 comments:
Ben, u asked me about those born in year of horse.. stated there , if u born in summer ( May to end july) yr luck is not too bad in year of rat .
To enhance yr wealth, put a water plant besides yr door. (as per attached
Wooooah, sifu, is that your house ? looks nice & warm.
Mine is facing south west also , but my bathrroom is located at the wealth position, any effect on this ?
pls comment sifu, tq .
FUNG MY SHUI......... :-P
After reading the headline, either you are laughing already, or you didn't get the joke. The headline is mimicking the often used phrase Kxxx My Axx!!!
I know I will offend and ridicule a lot readers especially for a fundamental based blog. I did my fair share of introspection into FS in the past, and found that most of the BS is BS, and some of the sounder ideas were basically common sense. Digging deeper, FS only took on a new life over the last 100 years or so, sort of something that was invented due to necessity, a lot like accounting. The only record of FS and its application a few hundred years ago was due to being used to position burial sites. Somehow, that grew in the number of bull shitters into various tangents, with the appearance of different schools of thought. FS in particular is easy to flourish in the Chinese culture because there is no need for verification. Almost everything is based on presumptions, inventions and airy fairy stuff. If there was no compass, I think all FS masters would not exist. You can then extend the compass into a more complex lo pan, how... just name the quadrants and spaces with innovative ideas.
What's the deal with various animal years? How did fan tai shui came about? Did anybody care to check? 99% of ideas are from hearsay, from white bearded gurus, mostly self proclaiming proselytizers, mainly self-promoters. Many would be effective politicians as the better ones are usually charismatic, good oraters and persuasive snake charmers - not exactly a benchmark for solid stuff. Successful FS masters would also probably succeed in the political field or as a management consultant - all able to turn bs into a fine art.
FS easily flourished in a Chinese culture because the culture accepts almost everything that comes along the way, especially things handed down from generations past, with no questioning of the validity side of things. You can have many gods, demi-gods, semi-gods, super duper dead heroes being elevated to sainthood, purveyors of various areas of business sectors, and even every section of the house - who is to know that they dissect the otherworld and spiritual world into such compact and organised structure. C'mon, they do a much better job than Lord of The Rings or Harry Potter, but they are mainly fiction.
FS also succeeds in Chinese culture because there is really a very vague understanding of after life - anything goes. There is no main god and religion is wishy-washy. Taosim is neither here nor there. The culture can accept bits of Taoism, multi level gods and bits of Buddhism without ever anyone questioning why. All cultures will try to explain their fate and destiny. When there is no strong religion as a backdrop, cultural ways dominate. Nobody likes to take PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY for their actions - they all want to evade bad luck and put failures or bad experiences down to other reasons other than themselves. FS serves that purpose very nicely. You did not lose that job because there was no water feature in your East area of your office - you probably fucked up, but that is much harder to swallow. When you want to ascribe things to blame on or rely on the supernatural to move ahead in life, you are unlikely to experience personal growth and probably lack application in life - don't be a lazy whiny bastard.
FS masters also know how to protect theselves to explain the unanswerables. They often cite the "grand rule": yat mange, yee wharn, sarm fung shui ... or loosely translated: number one is llife destiny you are born with, number two is the luck you are born with, then number three fung shui ... Which means if your life does not improve even after doing this and that according to fung shui, well tough-titties. What a wonderful thing to be involved in, no one can say you got it wrong. People who seek out FS tend to be at wit's end in coming terms with their problems: be it financial problems, bad bosses, career stagnating, argumentative household, philandering husbands, back-stabbing friends, etc. Well, we need to deal with the problems straight up: lose your a-hole friends, geld your husband (he's a prick), move to a new job, examine your effective contribution in your work, communicate with your family members better (be a friend not only a parent), etc. These common problems are a result of more deep-seated issues which some of us are unwilling to face up to or try to solve.
People will cite the Lamborghini with the good luck number plate, and cite the huge sums rich people dole out for FS readings.
Errr ..., they had to build their wealth first ... I don't think there was a tycoon who got rich by positioning a fucking water feature in their garden, and said the rest was history!!! Rich people will use FS more as it is better to be safe than sorry, a wealth protection insurance - hey, go buy a huge annuity, its much better.
What about those lucky bastards born with a golden spoon and never having to raise a finger in their life, and they are useless dim witted fools at the same time? Why are you not Li Ka Shing's son or daughter? There are many unanswerables in the world, but FS is definitely not the answer. Live your life as well as you can, take responsibility for your own actions, spend time to discover your spiritual side, explore religions, take ultimate care of your soul as best you can. I was moved to write on this because I read a FS guru's prediction for 2008: "... advisable to invest in a good burglar system, be careful when you carry cash ..." C'mon!!! I can also add: "don't fuck your best friend's wife" ... what's the difference??!!
More from the guru: "... avoid herd mentality and stick to fundamentals ..." and may I add, your mother is probably a woman.
FUNG SHUI or ......
FUNG CHOOI LENG TENG SHEE ???
Sam , this anonymous's posting is actually paste from dali blog @
https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=18183714&postID=8052629029890037199
Read the blow :
geoff said...
Well, Dali, for once i'll disagree with you on this one. I think FS was invented not 100 years ago but way way back. It is the chinese way of harmonising human with nature. to me, it is a lot more to do with science than superstitious. There is no way to verify by using the western scientific way. it is a chinese way of life. just like chi in kung fu or qigong. U cannot scientifically prove it but it exists. I think the common misconception with modern fs is that ppl thinks that it is a one stop solution to all their problems. Also there are too many unqualified masters out there (see the similarity with investment advises?).
11:17 AM
zentrader said...
The 'Chi' was tested scientifically by western researcher I think the conclusion was that the Kung Fu monk really can control the flow of chi.
In the same Discovery Series it said that the way they controlled the chi and then the release of the energy, it was calculated to be the power of a shotgun so don't play play with those shaolin monk :)
11:25 AM
Long said...
While I agree most of the facts you posted, but for this one, I think to some extend, you might not get it correctly.
You seemed to put too much blame of chinese culture 'believe' into FS. Which means, you didn't really know the true knowledge or arts of FS.
Mind you, animal years and fan-tai-shui believe are nothing to do with FS. You are right in saying there are really a lot of bull-shitter around who make living in FS by misleading its value to accustome market demand.
And because of this many ppl have got wrong impression of FS, where unfortunately, including you.
If you want to know the root of FS, go for 'yi jing'. The fundamentals, not the god, semi-god or whatever incorrect believe that polluted by business world today.
11:29 AM
Salvatore_Dali said...
zentrader,
i believe in the chi, i belive in hei kung ... don't get me wrong... i also believe in ghosts, spirits and voodoo ... just becos something has been around for 3,500 years does not mean its valid.... certain witchcraft and God's Sticks have been around also for even longer ... no empirical evidence la...
I put up so many points, you all just never attack them but stick onto yr views like a religious zeaLOT... c'mon , do better.
11:42 AM
Salvatore_Dali said...
long,
accussing someone of not knowing the true art form of FS, is in itself BS ... its like accussingsomeone who did not embrace Christianity as not knowing the full true way of Christianity... everyone bloody school of thot will say theirs is the way... by saying its fundamentals of FS does not make them more correct..., like I said, some of the stuff are just common sense
LOOK at the bloody property mkts in HK and Singapore, face here face there, but when property mktsa are bad , you face backside also no use... aha, the FS master will say cannot evade tei wan (land luck) even though you did all the FS precautions ... how to fight against the NEVER CAN BE WRONG FUCKERS
11:46 AM
Salvatore_Dali said...
geoff n zen,
like i said, i believe in the chi n hei kung.... harnessing it should not cost 10,000 ringgit per reading session...
do you think i am helping ppl to harness better wealth understanding and wealth accumulation ... well, i didn't charge any fuckers 10,000 ringgit per session... the whole shebang just smacks of overkill and over zealous money making, turning the entire thing into a long drawn out scam... yes there is chi, here go harness it, thanks goodbye... dont make it out to be something that needs 25 years of studying and white bear gurus here and there, making the art so secretive... that only the chosen ones can know the secrets, please...
11:51 AM
Roden said...
FS at least has more than 500 years, in the ancient time, the selection of building town or capital all base on FS, that fit to harmonize the mankind and environment, they become chief planner for the townhall. That definitely has unqualified FS master in the market, those really good one keep very low profile. We have to learn the fundenmental FS before we heard their interpretation, just ignore those guru comment or prediction on next year, that are general statement, sure correct, just like Dali said your mother probably is woman, hahaha...if someone really not believe FS, let try to whack your ancestor tomb then simply build again, or challenge FS, choose the lousy date and time to bury your ancestor, then see what would happen. good FS master keep need not publishing book, articles or sell those funny "toy", got to understand that is just business and supply to general need. One of the FS master told me, they would not "disclose" their skill or secret on book, those already disclose are really insignificant. FS can help people and lead someone into disaster, this is the knowledge pass down from ancient, some said it doesn't make sense, but I said probably we just not enough knowledge to understand it and no time to understand it. Just beware, a lot of unorthedox FS master taking advantage on people when they believe them.
2:05 PM
Salvatore_Dali said...
roden,
fair comment...
zentrader n geoff,
i think we all made some points for both sides ... can go on arguing till cown really knock on our doors, so just let it slide... to each his own, since we have all said what we wanted. Tks for a nice debate..lol
2:30 PM
sickput said...
Thank you for the write up on feng shui. i will have to look for a new profession now as previously, I used to "chase" bad luck from pretty lady investors who lost money in the market.
best way to get ladies plus cash for doing something you really like.
Due to mu skill, needless to say, there were very few repeat customers.
After your comment, I doubt there will be many who will fall for my scam.
6:15 PM
oceanblue said...
I think you should read up more on FS before you comment. And I also think that you are against those so-called "modern FS master" than FS itself.
As for burning "paper maney" for the dead, do you really think it is for the dead? It is more for those who alive, who give (burn) the money, to feel better psychologically!
12:23 PM
Salvatore_Dali said...
oceanblue,
am i an expert , no... have i read up on FS, yes... but probably not. ARE YOU TELLING ME I NEED TO GET A DEGREE IN FS before I can comment? Then nobody in the world can say anything to anyone. If your wife scold you for being lazy.. you can always say to your wife you need to read up more on me and why I am lazy before calling me lazy. Your defence comes up again and again by those who defend FS, because every one thinks they aree THE ONLY ONES practising the ONE TRUE WAY... how many ONE TRUE WAYS are there?
Its an inexact science that is near impossible to prove wrong, hence it will flourish and the ones with the best argument or most persuasive arguments will get more followers.
Think first, why study FS? For greedy reasons? Look at the FS masters ... they are also greedy bastards. I am not against people being greedy, but if its a NOBLE ART form and helps people to harness chi, why the excessive monetary compensations? Compare HEI KUNG with FS, there are many true masters of HEI KUNG and it works empirically speaking - but you dont see the master charging 5,000 for a training session... the ends justify the means?
The shameless amount of money bandied around taints the whole bloody thing.
12:47 PM
[Photo]
Fung My Shui ...
After reading the headline, either you are laughing already, or you didn't get the joke. The headline is mimicking the often used phrase Kxxx My Axx.
I know I will offend and ridicule a lot of readers, especially for an Asia based blog. I did my fair share of introspection into FS in the past, and found that most of the bs is bs, and some of the sounder ideas were basically common sense. Digging deeper, FS only took on a new life over the last 100 years or so, sort of something that was invented due to necessity, a lot like accounting. The only record of FS and its application a few hundred years ago was due to being used to position burial sites. Somehow, that grew in the number of bull shitters into various tangents, with the appearance of different schools of thought. FS in particular is easy to flourish in the Chinese culture because there is no need for verification. Almost everything is based on presumptions, inventions and airy fairy stuff. If there was no compass, I think all FS masters would not exist. You can then extend the compass into a more complex lo pan, how... just name the quadrants and spaces with innovative ideas.
What's the deal with various animal years? How did fan tai shui came about? Did anybody care to check? 99% of ideas are from hearsay, from white bearded gurus, mostly self proclaiming proselytizers, mainly self-promoters. Many would be effective politicians as the better ones are usually charismatic, good oraters and persuasive snake charmers - not exactly a benchmark for solid stuff. Successful FS masters would also probably succeed in the political field or as a management consultant - all able to turn bs into a fine art.
FS easily flourished in a Chinese culture because the culture accepts almost everything that comes along the way, especially things handed down from generations past, with no questioning of the validity side of things. You can have many gods, demi-gods, semi-gods, super duper dead heroes being elevated to sainthood, purveyors of various areas of business sectors, and even every section of the house - who is to know that they dissect the otherworld and spiritual world into such compact and organised structure. C'mon, they do a much better job than Lord of The Rings or Harry Potter, but they are mainly fiction.
FS also succeeds in Chinese culture because there is really a very vague understanding of after life - anything goes. There is no main god and religion is wishy-washy. Taosim is neither here nor there. The culture can accept bits of Taoism, multi level gods and bits of Buddhism without ever anyone questioning why. All cultures will try to explain their fate and destiny. When there is no strong religion as a backdrop, cultural ways dominate. Nobody likes to take PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY for their actions - they all want to evade bad luck and put failures or bad experiences down to other reasons other than themselves. FS serves that purpose very nicely. You did not lose that job because there was no water feature in your East area of your office - you probably fucked up, but that is much harder to swallow. When you want to ascribe things to blame on or rely on the supernatural to move ahead in life, you are unlikely to experience personal growth and probably lack application in life - don't be a lazy whiny bastard.
FS masters also know how to protect theselves to explain the unanswerables. They often cite the "grand rule": yat mange, yee wharn, sarm fung shui ... or loosely translated: number one is llife destiny you are born with, number two is the luck you are born with, then number three fung shui ... Which means if your life does not improve even after doing this and that according to fung shui, well tough-titties. What a wonderful thing to be involved in, no one can say you got it wrong. People who seek out FS tend to be at wit's end in coming terms with their problems: be it financial problems, bad bosses, career stagnating, argumentative household, philandering husbands, back-stabbing friends, etc. Well, we need to deal with the problems straight up: lose your a-hole friends, geld your husband (he's a prick), move to a new job, examine your effective contribution in your work, communicate with your family members better (be a friend not only a parent), etc. These common problems are a result of more deep-seated issues which some of us are unwilling to face up to or try to solve.People will cite the Lamborghini with the good luck number plate, and cite the huge sums rich people dole out for FS readings. Errr ..., they had to build their wealth first ... I don't think there was a tycoon who got rich by positioning a fucking water feature in their garden, and said the rest was history!!! Rich people will use FS more as it is better to be safe than sorry, a wealth protection insurance - hey, go buy a huge annuity, its much better.
What about those lucky bastards born with a golden spoon and never having to raise a finger in their life, and they are useless dim witted fools at the same time? Why are you not Li Ka Shing's son or daughter? There are many unanswerables in the world, but FS is definitely not the answer. Live your life as well as you can, take responsibility for your own actions, spend time to discover your spiritual side, explore religions, take ultimate care of your soul as best you can. I was moved to write on this because I read a FS guru's prediction for 2008: "... advisable to invest in a good burglar system, be careful when you carry cash ..." C'mon!!! I can also add: "don't fuck your best friend's wife" ... what's the difference??!! More from the guru: "... avoid herd mentality and stick to fundamentals ..." and may I add, your mother is probably a woman.
posted by Salvatore_Dali at 1:46 PM on Dec 16, 2007
Sam & all, this bugger is another ego bastard , he think he is smart, see yourself how smart he was with all the china call warrants picks-
"
Beijing still have many fiscal measures it could implement if things really get out of hand - such as raising transaction fees or even taxing capital gains. These measures are not likely to be implemented till maybe the all time highs have been breached again. Hence on balance, the bull run should continue soon and things should be "safe" at least till it nears their all time highs. China dolls, come to papa ...
GOOD TRADING BUYS
CCCC-C3 0.23
CCCC-C4 0.16
China Life-C3 0.17
China Life-C4 0.48
China Merchant-C1 0.12
CNOOC-C1 0.36
Chalco-C1 0.14
China Construction Bank-C1 0.12
Shenhua-C1 0.37
STRONG BUYS
China Mobile-C5 0.51
China Coal-C1 0.13
ICBC-C4 0.23
Petrochina-C4 0.43
Sinopec-C2 0.17
Sinopec-C3 0.15
Posted by Salvatore_Dali at 12:23 AM 1 comments
"
Interesting , interesting ! I am sidding nobody he he
enjoying your blog very much .
To FS supporters n all , I am not sure whether "fung my shui " is actually posted by him or not !?
What I wanna to tell is :since he said he believe in ghosts n spirits, can someone tell me r there any differences btwn ghosts , spirits n feng shui ? ? all these 3 r without scientific evidence also !
Just like what i posted :- if u think reincarnation n Jesus came alive after death r not supertitous , why Feng Shui is so supertitous in d eyes of u ? just bcos there is no scientific proof on FS ? perhaps u should show me d scientific proof of Jesus came alive after death n also reincarnation.
Is believe in ghost n spirits not supertitous also ? ha ha..u r like telling us all d man r untrusted except u n yr papa !! ha ha
as u said common sense ! Do u have ?
Ermmmmmmmm ^V^
Sifu Sam,
i wanna move my "elephant" which can "SUCK" all the money around my house to my "Fatt Choi Wei" already.
haha....
thank a lots
Oh!!! I am not borned in May-July. But fr the scan copy saying I may have a good opportunity in rat of year. Erm, wondering what kind of chance is that? Anyway thanks for advise, will go pray pray during CNY.
http://malaysianpolitics.com/?p=145
Ben, if u r fire life, 2007,2008,2009 is good 4 u, coz this 3 years make out of water or so called water year.
4 lynx..if yr bathroom located in wealth position, means u r having wealth leaking , to counter it , put a big leaf plant n coin box in yr bathroom, sound funny ? ha ha never try never know..try it ^V^
Just wondering y ING building placed a big mirror in front of their entrance ? to counter d big canon from its opposite building ? wowww... mat salleh also supertitous ah ?? y ? y ?
Can anybody tell me y Bank Negara open its side entrance instead of its main entrance ( main entrance closed since day one i born ) ? Orang Melayu pun supertitous kah ?
U want more example ??
Think..think a little ^V^
Just to share my view on Feng Shui...
I think most of u know that many ancient chinese invention like gunpowder, compass, paper making, printing machine, etc... They were invented without any scientific/sophistical equation (Western proved it later on for application). This is because they had worked fine daily since the ancestor. So why Feng shui cannot be the chinese invention/practice which will bring benefit in daily live?
Do u know that Coca Cola and many big US company has consulted feng shui master 李居明? These big company can just ask for some phd graduated designer/engineer, but why consult FS master? Do u think they used to waste investor money?
IMO, feng shui has something to do with our unconcious mind(潜意识). Since our mind control our body, so directly control our decision and indirectly control our future. Until today, the only human organ that science cannot fully understand is brain/mind.
For example, if u put a frog(with coin hanging in its mouth) in front of your house main door. By the time u going out to work/meet ppl/do daily stuff, the frog image has captured in our unconcious mind together with the coin even though u never look at them directly by the time u go out. It affects your decision making process. But nobody know what is happening in our mind due to this unconcious image.
For those who have eyesight problem, did doctor ask u to watch green color thing? Why green? It means green color (wavelength in science) trigger the "eyes healing" signal from our mind. So why does it hard for us to accept item/color/direction/etc in Feng shui carry signal to trigger our mind to do something special(wealth/healthy/relationship/etc) unconciously?
I believe Feng Shui will be proven scientifically in the future, same as those gunpowder/compass/paper/printing which were invented by our great ancestor.
Well said richloo, luckly it was commentted by the doctor , can u imagine if u ask eyes problem dudes to watch more green color things in ancient time , ha ha u will be named as "stupidtitous" instead of supertitous ! ha ha
Way back >1,000 years ago, FS telling , u will get more Chi (energy )if yr hse is facing east ( Solar from sun n it was proven by scientist ) , imagine how stupidtitous it was if u tell them facing east will get more energy b4 d proven evidence by scientist !
Due to contsrain of human intelligence, we r not up to that level yet to dig out more evidence from FS, hence.. it is too early for one to say FS is "STUPIDtitous" !!!
exciting ! exciting ! good debate by both of u . more please more please
Sam...
F1 car on grass.... ? How better can one describe fs. I think some fs master will use it to "cari makan". Ha ha ha..
There was an interesting article in "The Star" last Sunday on fs for 2008.
I don't think that there is any harm in learning more ... fs included.
Cheers....
Another wonderful example Sam .....
Just wondering y ING building placed a big mirror in front of their entrance ? to counter d big canon from its opposite building ? wowww... mat salleh also supertitous ah ?? y ? y ?
Can anybody tell me y Bank Negara open its side entrance instead of its main entrance ( main entrance closed since day one i born ) ? Orang Melayu pun supertitous kah ?
As much as the F1 car on a grass track ......
Ole Ole u r so well versed in FS
I'm sure everyone reading can see that
Bro Sam no need to argue with those non believers. why teach them fs to me one of the "gems" of chinese culture from our ancestor.
we r not their mother to guide them, isn't it?
btw, which fs master/book u follow?
there r so many in the mkt now. very confusing
Sifu Sam,
i have been FS seminar talk two weeks ago, according to FS master she say on the 6th of FEB 11pm to 2am is the best time we absorb light of "bless @ luck" from the North. Is it true ar?? please correct me if i am wrong...
thanks :)
Ha ha..2 sour kids, I dont know what u hv posted 2 me coz once i saw there from anonymous or funny words started with ha ha ha..I will delete it straight away..ha ha jgn marah yah ?
2 FS supporters , of course i know it is not my obligation to teach them like what their ma ma did, My intention is to let them know by calling FS believer as supertitous does not make u looks little smart at all, in fact, it shows how "half tanker" u r !
Read what Alan Greenspan commentted about chinese leader in an interview with spanish embassador >> http://itv.ifeng.com/vplay.aspx?id=6b162e2e-130a-4b4c-a190-a94ac75f604e
From what i understand, Feng Shui is dynamic, is changing over time, and it's only the few talented can master. There are much research goes into the area, but just people wasn't aware of it. And also most sifu just aren't talented enough and get it wrong a lot of the times(our local sifu just got his own house burned down and is crying in the newspaper that he lost 200k!!!).
For instance, 坐北向南 is good. That's the norm. What if you live in the southern hemisphere? They are constant debates in feng shui.
Not all d 坐北向南 's hse is good , it depends on yr 8 chi or date of birth, ancient time, why they said 坐北向南's hse is good FS, it is bcos of north wind , if u been in china b4, u will know how cold this north wind is, hence if yr hse is 坐北向南 , d north wind can only hit at d back of yr hse not yr front door, that's y they said 坐北向南;s hse is good FS.
FYI, I am not a professional FS master, i only know d basic fundamental of FS, if u ask me 4 advice, i dont mind to share with u, but if u r in deep shit due to yr hse FS, pls go n find Lilian or her sifu 4 more accurate FS advice.
I dont want FS to be named as baseless n supertitous bcos of my "half tanker FS", ha ha ^V^
Wo "Ding Ding", ", "Ding", Ding".... How??? What's up?? Uncle Ben, pls announce cut rate early...
Uncle Sam, Market can be shacking until when oh?? Really whole body sweating oh... Sigh!!
Too Sifu Sam, share mkt drop another 1000 points he will be laughing. Cause he will buy more.
Share mkt go up 1000 points he also laughing cause he will make a lot.
So to all his followers, up or down you follow him, he will bring you to heaven instead of Holland. I have been his faithful follower since a few years back. :)
So nothing to worry, Mkt drop more the merrier, we collect more later! wakakaka :) Good Day
Falling..falling..anyone catch d falling knife ? ha ha..i wish none of u did that !
FA !FA !compare d percentage drop of those high PE n unFA stocks, china call warrants with ECM@0.85 , Mahsing @1.68n liondiv @1.72... some r still in positive zone ! why why why ? tak lain tak bukan ..FA lollll $$$$$
ANyway... if mkt keeps fallling like that... Good FA stock will follow also..hence.. still d old saying.. stay aside n dont catch d falling knife !
Ok, Ok!!! Ni """Ding"" ni ""Ding"""
Sweat!!
Jason..u r wrong this time..mkt drop i will not buy in anymore.. didnt u see my posting stated by announcement of GE i will dispose at least 2/3 of my holding ? buy more on dip ? ha ha not this time.
btw..I hv some problem with my YM today... would like to ym u but cant..may be 2molo lah..ok ?
2 my fellow FA supporters, dont try to bottom fishing in panic n down mkt.. d more u buy d more u die !
Make less id better than lose money !
If u wanna to take profit on mahsing, ecm or liondiv for safe play.. up 2 u !
as for me..i am still holding 100% on them. worst come 2 worst.. break even loollll no big deal ^V^
Once again.. mkt keeps dropping with no break at all, these will cause lot of force selling n margin call in d coming days.. DONT CATCH D FALLING KNIFE !
if tonight US fall another 500 point++??? oh!! Are u sure, uncle BEN??
I think he gonna cut rate by this week liao.. No time to wait the titanic to sink... Uncle Ben, Pls faster look for Life BoatZ!!! YO!
as for me..i am still holding 100% on them. worst come 2 worst.. break even loollll no big deal ^V^
sam, u mean if anything go until your buying price u might dippose for safety purpose?
if yes pls let us know now so we also can make judgement earlier....ty.
Small matter on the YM thing sifu. Anyway what i mean is that if continue to drop i know you wont catch the falling knife but i am pretty sure if drop 1000 pts i am sure you will buy those FA stocks when it hit rock bottom wont you? ^^ That's what i mean... :)
talking abt FS, do you all think Mr badawi's has a FS mouth ? Everytime he opens his mouth to comment about Bursa, a few days later the market will collapse like nobody's business. last year, he opened his mouth in Feb and think back what happened....this year, he commented that FFs are all coming in to Msia and you and I know the rest is history....is it coincidence or he has a jinx mouth?
Martin Luther King Day, so US market will be closed today.
Sam how abt Evergreen and RCECAP. Wht is your tp to sell and strategy? Can comment
for me the price already below my buying price as i buy it at a higher price than others,but now ECM already touch 0.860.....almost touching your cost price too...still hold?or no matter wat, will hold until 28th FEB?even if the price drop further?pls comment,ty.
sam, u mean if anything go until your buying price u might dippose for safety purpose?
if i want 2 dispose off 4 safety purpose, i will do it last week lah..y still keeping till todate ?
I remember someone asked me why I still keep 60% cash in hand since i am so bullish on 1st qtr of 08 b4recent crash !?
well..by now u should know why I dont put all my fund in shares mkt ! cos nobody knows what will happen 2molo , risk management, self displine n greed control that make me who I am today.
Herbert.. what do u think if DOw plunge another 500 points tonite ? game over ? ha ha...
That's d time for u to see d different btwn low PE FA stocks n high PE unsound stocks !ohhh never forget also to campare with china call warrants !!
see yah ?
Hi Sam,
500++ point will game over???? Haha.. Uncle Ben still got life boat (Interest rate cut).... Cut until next time we go US study with ratio expenses RM1 = USD 1.5... Haha.. Possible?? Dun Know le.. what do you think sam..
TL once said to Sifu Sam : TA = Kiss of Death.
Sifu Sam once said to TL : Bad time will separate the Man from the Boys.
I guess condition arise & time ripen now.
$ifu $am, seems like tis time d market won't make u-turn anymore. Dow futures is now down >100, wonder what would happen " Day after tomorrow".
Now KLSE has 2 depend on Pak Lah 2 make announcement on GE...
$ifu, u r really "Chun" market really crash in 2008 as expected by u.
Well, tis week just concentrate on Korean Open...
Sam , I totally agreed with what u said, my remisier just told me that one client from K&N kenanga lose 1 million + all his hard sweat money because of china call warrants.
Lesson to learn .
Yan wei, really feel sorry 4 him, many times I said >> d most killing part of china call warrants is "time frame" , maximum 6 months, n most of them going 2 b due in Feb n march.. they r really running out of time, dont forget, most of them bought at Hangseng 29,000+, do u think Hang Seng can reach 29,000 again in 2 months time ?
When time is due, toilet paper worth more than out money call warrants !
So Sam, since u will ceased your blog and reduce your holding investment in Share Market 2008. Then, Is it mean for you to prevent involve in market crash possible happen in this year?
London bridge is falling down, Falling down, Falling down... What can i say. For those call warrants kaki, Holland is where you are heading.
Cease my blog is definately on..but u guys can still post yr comments n views here, as agreed by Ben & TL.. they will still guide u ppl when I am not around ..right Ben N TL ?
Still hv about 1 n 1/2 months to go b4 I back off from blogging , by then , I will conclude how much I made 4 past 2 years , based on current mkt sentiment, I dont think I can achieve 700K gain by end of Feb . sighhhhh cant quit with style liaooo ..ha ha !nvm lah , make is better than lose ^V^
2 all.. quit blogging doesnt mean I will stop chatting with u guys, just that I wont give any shares advice cos I am no longer involve is shares mkt anymore ^V^
Still remember someone ask me how to define Mkt crash ?
Ha ha...
It is still not crash yet until u see Genting, Ioicorp, Ytl, Ijm ,PPB , PBB , Digi all traded at PE < 15.
Blue chips @ PE < 15 is crash
Blue chips @ PE < 10 is something like 1998 crisis !
From there, U will understand PE better
Sifu Sam,
Can give some comment on the CC (credit card) and HP (Hire Purchased)"problems" which haven't explore in US yet??
Cause as i know 1-->2-->3 so on...(it link together) @ only matter of time rite??
regards
$ifu $am, since u insist 2 stop giving any advice on share market, then we still could chat abt Badminton right ? u r a very nice guy infact, u r just so informative that could b our "Encyclopedia" ha!
So b4 u quit, i really want 2 thank u sincerely 4 having such a wonderful n informative blog in d past 1 yr.
No matter what would happen 2 share market after 2molo, i wish u a PROFITABLE Year of d RAT!
GONG XI FA CAI!
Mkt crash where you get all the blue chips below 15 PE, who will benefit the most?
Samgoss la... who else. :)
Sam, you are over valuing me. I don't think I am able to provide as good quality of advise as you.
Hey Sam, your status in the heart of your fans simply irreplaceable. ^_^ Why don't you keep blogging without buying any? Otherwise I guess TL and Tailow will slowly leave stop investing also.
As I mentioned earlier, I started investing in 2001; I never been thru the 98 crisis. But from what my dad described, it is scary. Let's imagine when you decided to cut loss at RM5 (cost at RM10) the buying bid only RM2. That is the real crisis.
Look at current market, for sure today will be 2nd episode continue from yesterday selling down. That is bad, but at least there are ppl cueing to buy still.
So do not be pessimistic, from all the feel good factors given by Pak La (ie. taipusam holiday, more allocation of fund to chinese school) GE date will definitely to be announced within the next 14days. Ideally will be together with the fed rat cutting announcement. ^_^
Do not average down first, tomorrow is a holiday.
i consider this a crashla sifu, 40 points down today, when is this going to stopla?..haih..
Miow..crash?not.yet.it.is.only.a.mini.crash..I.see..blood.blood.blood.over.d.street.
See?I.told.u.so..d.more.u.buy.d.more.u.die!n.also.during .bear.n.panic.mkt..g ood.stocks.will.follow.also!
More.Margin call.n.force.selling .on.its.way..
118.Talk.about.badminton? ha.ha...tell.u.someting .later...on.my.way.back.to.office..give.me.a.second!
yea sifu, you're rite..bt your calls look much more attractive nw..$$$
Hey Bro Sam,
notice you bring up Jesus a lot in discussion about FS. Bro, same can be said about a lot of religions, so what has Jesus got to do with FS? Someone can believe in JS and not believe in FS; can believe in FS and not in JS; can believe in JS and FS both; and not believe in both JS or FS. Believe in something does not mean neccessarily mean exclusion/inclusion to the believe of another, even tho both cannot be "proved".
sam..want to go in masteel back!! rm1.50 maybe?
CCdev..cool ..cool bro.. I am not only talk about jesus, I talk about buddha also, I am buddhist ! putting buddha n Jesus as an example to show how "make sense: that guy was by saying He believed in God but not in FS cos FS is not scientifically proved !
U see my point here ? just like u go around n tell " All man cannot be trusted expet yr papa ! " make sense ?
Ha ha... sorry if I offended yr religion , but I think u need to read what I hv posted in my blog again ^V^
bad traffic jam & a lot of friendly indians...
wow..wow... mkt down again... better stop buying as sam said... wait & see...
liondiv only 1.59,...
Ben, dont be so humble lah.ha ha .u n TL r more than qualify to take over by blog lahh..
U was not around in 1998 crash ? ha ha of course lah..30-10-= 20years old !?? still a kid wat !ha ha??
FYI, that was d time I made my first 200K , I went in Maybank @2.80, UEM0.78, YTL 0.60 n PBB 1.50, > 200K gain in less than 18 months ^V^
Know what is d PE for d above bluechips that I bought ?
All r @ PE < 5 !!
U can imagine how bad d crsis was !!
2 Jensen n 118 , there is another great web worth for visit >>www.cctv.com.cn , click under sport, they hv lots of live telecast over there , take a look ^V^
2 Mohd , Masteel @ 1.50 good buy ? if u involved to much in shares mkt lately , swap is better than buy , if yr share holding is zero or less than 10% of yr cash holding , of course it is wise to go in < 1.50 . any sharp rebound is 4 u to take profit if u managed to buy at low.
U decide ^V^
Eventhough knowing this is yet to be "crisis" but still scary when looking at the index dropped >40pts in 18mins after market opening.
Now is like bungy jumping - "heading all the way down".
Investors are not giving a damn to the USD150bil stimulus plan by Bush, really worrying they will react the same to Bern rate cut.
Possible outcome of rate cut:
50bps cut - will have no effect on the market.
75bps cut - may have some effect.
100bps cut - able to surprise the market to create short term positive effect but at the cost of long term (inflation)
So which one you guys prefer?
Hi,
At what level KLCI is consider good for bargain huntings?
Tq
Hi,
What level KLCI consider good for bargain hunting?
Tq
2 Pengasus 101 . what level 2 buy ? ha ha come on chin ! yr TA never tell u when to buy meh..oppppsss ? or never tell u to short KLSE @1,500 meh ?
Asking which level to buy shows that TA is totally useless, otherwise..why u come n ask 4 my views ?
D more u buy d more u die ! aim 4 technical rebound 4 quick bucks ? greed will kill u baby ^V^
eerrr bro sam,noted your comments...my post sounded agrresive. no man, but u such a straight shooter, i also say what i think but i should be more "softer" next time.
2 ccdev.. is ok , no big deal.. I hv lot of christian friends also , I am not a anti christian , just that one need to respect each other , I hate ppl said praying to guan yin , buddha r actually praying to statue or some even said it is praying to evil ! u know lah.. there r lots of this type of ppl around !
N also some said FS, ghost festival is nonsense n supertitous ! that's y i brought up Jesus came alive after death n buddha teaching of reincarnation .
still d same saying, if they think praying to ghost, believed in FS , guan yin..all these got no scientific proof, perhaps they should show ask themselves , is there any scientific proof of reincarnation n jesus came alive after death !?
2 pengasus 101, bingo.. I wonder if u want to challenge me on TA vs FA , why u ask me at which level to go in ?
Is Liondiv @1.02 vs Mutiara @0.85 not a good lesson to u ? short memory ka ? chin
Sifu Sam
Is PA a good fundamental stock?
Please comment. Tq.
yueer888, PA 3 QTrs running at huge loss, how to be FA stock ? moreover.. during panic n bear mkt.. Good FA stock will be effected also ! hence what do u think of PA ?
2 twl88, stop wasting yr time with that kiddy, I knew his agenda from his first posting , everyone knows he is one of d TA talker in that forum , n still he come to ask me at which level should we go in , ha ha.. he wants me to make buy call , n shoot me when mkt goes further down, come on kid , I hv been in shares mkt 4 more than 10 years , u wanna to trap me ? sorry kid , still long way for u to reach that level .
Told u already, if TA is workable, why should u come & ask me when to enter ? u have yr sifu chinyk to ask wat ? why come to me ?
By 28 feb, no matter how bad is d mkt, good or bad, I will show u d beauty of FA, be there..ok ?
Hi Sam,
For mutual fund, most ppl will switch to bond fund when bear is coming. How about share?
Do you think that swap to dividend play is a good move during long long bear market? bcoz I dont wan to put in FD.
When bull come, will this dividend stock move back to their position quicker than other stock? Then only I swap back to those bull kaki's FA stock.
Ps: All the stock I mean are with good FA.
rich, not a bad move, as for me..I still prefer on shares , fyi, I am only interested in 2 things in my life, do biz n shares , though I know PB mutual fund , Icaptal r worth for me to put my money in but still I prefer to do it my way , more excited n challenging ^V^
So far , my returns is nothing less than them.
D bear curse came earlier than my expectation , as I said , when thing is over means over .
Stratergy has been changed , I dont think there is any rally in short term anymore , it needs to take quite some time for those who wounded to get heal b4 they come back again.
I am still calculating my returns (minus d recent losses ) , will finalise it by end of 28 Feb.
700K gain is impossible to reach by 28 Feb, let see d final figures by end of 28 Feb.
Do u or yr colleague hv d following behaviour after d recent mkt crash ?
全公司同事出現異動 憾頭落檯又好
目光呆滯又有
狂打電話又有
明顯喊過既又有...
Ha ha ..d hongkese r so funny after Hangseng dive from 29,000 to 21,000 !
read what these guys commentted about subprime crisis :-
http://itv.ifeng.com/vplay.aspx?id=c6eaeaf0-bc00-454c-84fc-0a308dacee3f
http://itv.ifeng.com/vplay.aspx?id=779d080d-6364-4f98-9b62-217bd4896038
Fed Cuts Interest Rate 3/4 of a Point
Would it help??? Hopefully....
Sam, Ben, TL...What's our next step?? Still wait until 28th of FEB? Or GE announcement?
Fed cut 75bps from 4.25% to 3.5% in emergency meeting today. However, market continue slumping after the announcement because investors are doubting fed's action able to save the market.
Let's see how NYSE and other major market reaction tomorrow.
Ben .. decided cut 75 point interest rate .. well, there will be more coming !!!
just a word to say, when there is nothing can be done, just stay a side and do nothing.
OMG... bro Sam, Fed cut rate by .75.... oooo.. wonder how the market will react.... oooo
Dow Jones index dropped 180 pts while Down Jones future index up 330 pts. How do we read this?
It is good to see major market rebound after rate cut except US itself.
Since KLSE not open fro trading today, the critical part is how US market going to response tonight. Hopefully surprising 75bps cut + hint from white house of more than USD150bil stimulus plan able to regain investors confidence.
I am holding the same view as Sam that it is very hard for KLSE to have another bull run in short term (<6mths) even with CNY and GE themeplay (themeplay will definitely still on but not every counters involves). Lots of panic investors are waiting for the rebound to unload their shareholdings.
TL reply to Joe8
3 School of thoughts : A. Panadol can act as painkiller to temporary let us ease the pain.
B. Should Panadol unable to do the trick, then may have put on steroid.
C. If A & B fail, then need to put in ICU for chemo treatment as to stop all cells irregardless bad or good cells die.
As what TL perceive now, by cutting 75 basis points by FED yesterday, is resembling school of thoughts B. Is a more deadly dosage compare to A ( by pumping in stimulus $$$ package. This move created a more deeper cut in DJIA )
Today most Asian market turn greens. Thank goodness to the much needed steroid dosage. TL sees that the effect of steroid may probably hang in a little while and the effect may subsidize towards later part of trading ( currently Dow Jones futures is not looking encouraging - drop 0.24% )
Should the futures slump further, then DJ may re-enter another phase of gloom and doom again.
As TL earlier commented, FED really need to do more structural move to regain the prowness of USA economy and not just cutting rates only. TL suggest that you wait for another 3 months down the road, USA economy data - housing, employment & CPI to gauge the effectiveness of rate cutting.
TL have disposed entirely his one and only portfolio holding = LION DIV at RM1.618 yesterday. ( kiasu = kiasi )
One may argue that given the US election in 2008, the political party can ' re-route ' the recession trend , but TL think otherwise. They can only PROLONG & LESSER the pain ( like viagra done to the birdy = prolong the XXXX ) as to avoid a hard landing.
Well, one also may argue, able to buy on technical rebound on Thursday market due to today Asian market all turn GREEN.
Well, maybe you are lucky one among all others.
TL strategy - LOOK SEE - LOOK SEE.
Will attack once the Dow Jones future consecutively slump further for another couple of days or weeks ( if necessary )
TL strategy may not correct, and may proof losing out for any short technical rebound in next few market trading.
Take care.
TL reply to humble student : where do you get the future index reading ? TL not sure whether mine one is accurate of not.
http://finance.yahoo.com/indices?e=futures
For those who still hanging there and for those who hope to strike a strong technical rebound after today coconut cracking day at Batu Caves, TL sincerely wishing U a safe journey.
Take care.
TL : DJIA FUTURE
http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/page1/1,3248,432,00.html
"if u dont listen to old wise men advice, you will surely suffer"
remember this ancient chinese wisdom?
if you listen to Warren and Li Kar Sing and acted on it, you are going to sit comfortably now and get ready to bottom fishing again.
Sifu sam,
i don't really understand the role of the US Fed, and interest rates cut by them means? and how does this cut actually help the US economy?..
mind to teach? thanks
TWL & FONGKT, dont waste yr time hanging around there , leave them alone , u wont get anything from words fighting with them ^V^
Back to biz.. since 天時 n 人和 already changed, we need to adjust our stratergy in line with d changes, yes, o.75 cut definitely good to stabilise d mkt in short term, d obstacles of d world mkt is now "Lack of confident ", put yrself as an investor or trader , do u dare to jump in if mkt bounce back to 1,400+ ? same goes to HangSeng & STI , D Ideal stratergy is "hit n run " , I will take d opportunity 2 sell on strength , ride on its up n down wave ^V^
Exactly dave, they r fundamentalist ! Chinese saying , they eat salt more than we eat rice ! if they r no good , how to be d second richest man in d world n richest in HK ? they hv gone thru so many crisis , follow those with proven track records like d 2 u mentioned u will never wrong !
TL, we know u r very good in explaination, can u answer d question posted by lcs ?
Please , kam siah
Sifu Sam,
As TL wish not to mislead any members here , TL have pasted here some recent article which may help a bit understanding the concept of interest rate in economy. All these write up are from economist and profesional.
I suggest any member here go to read up or search some article in net. Just some pin up which may help here incase some do not understand.
Fed rate is cut 0.25%
But quarter-point disappoints Wall Street; Dow falls 294
From wire reports
December 12, 2007
Article tools
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Digg Del.icio.us Facebook Fark Google Newsvine Reddit Yahoo Print Reprints Post comment Text size: WASHINGTON - Trying to rescue an economy tied to a sinking housing sector, the Federal Reserve yesterday threw out another lifeline -- a quarter-point interest rate cut, the third since September.
But many investors had wanted a deeper cut, and when they didn't get it, they sold off stocks furiously. That drove down the Dow Jones industrial average by 294.26 points.
The Fed cut the benchmark federal funds rate -- which banks charge each other for overnight loans -- to 4.25 percent, saying that would "help promote moderate growth over time" by reducing borrowing costs enough to stimulate growth and offset the housing slump.
The Fed's decision wasn't unanimous. The president of the Boston Federal Reserve Bank, Eric S. Rosengren, voted against the decision, arguing for a deeper cut.
In a statement accompanying its 9-1 decision, the Fed left the door open to further cuts in coming months.
The Fed governors acknowledged that the risks of slowing growth and rising inflation are no longer in balance and that turmoil in credit markets is creating great uncertainty.
"Incoming information suggests that economic growth is slowing, reflecting the intensification of the housing correction and some softening in business and consumer spending. Moreover, strains in financial markets have increased in recent weeks," the Fed statement said.
"Today's action, combined with the policy actions taken earlier, should help promote moderate growth over time."
Banks immediately followed the Fed's lead, cutting the prime interest rate a quarter percentage point to 7.25 percent. Banks charge their best business customers the prime rate, and use it as a peg for setting all sorts of lending rates. Yesterday's rate reduction will ripple out in the form of cheaper home equity loans, credit cards, car loans and more.
The Fed also lowered the so-called discount rate, which it charges banks for short-term loans, by a quarter of a percentage point to 4.75 percent.
The Fed has been more restrained in its rate-cutting than many stock investors would like because it wants to avoid stimulating the economy too much while energy and commodity prices are still so high.
The Fed said that because "some inflation risks remain," it must make sure demand for workers, goods and services doesn't run too hot.
A few economists think the Fed is not taking the threat of inflation seriously enough.
Richard Yamarone, an economist for Argus Research Corp., issued an analysis yesterday saying that with food and fuel prices continuing to rise and consumers still shopping, "the Fed decision to lower rates seems a bit irresponsible."
But many economists think the opposite, saying the Fed has been too slow to respond to a slumping economy. Some even say the economy already is tumbling into an official recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of declining gross domestic product.
On Monday, Morgan Stanley, a Wall Street investment bank, issued a full recession alert, saying it expects a sharp slowdown in business investment as the housing market's problems spread.
"As delinquencies and defaults soar, lenders are tightening credit for commercial, credit card and auto lending, as well as for all mortgage borrowers," the bank's chief U.S. economist Richard B. Berner wrote in his report.
Other economists still hold out hope that gross domestic product, the total of all goods and services, won't face six straight months of shrinking.
In this year's fourth quarter, "we expect GDP growth to be anemic," wrote Joshua N. Feinman, chief economist for Deutsche Asset Management, in an assessment of the Fed action. But "housing will not be bad enough to throw the economy into recession or even a prolonged period of sharply sub-par growth."
Then in 2008, "we expect the economy to claw its way back, returning to as much as 3 percent growth in the year's second half," he wrote.
At the heart of today's economic problems is a severe housing slump, and the packaging of shaky mortgages into bonds of dubious value. Banks holding those suspect notes fear that they'll have to write down their asset values, and rather than take on more risks with new loans, some are hoarding their cash reserves.
That has spawned mounting concerns that credit markets, where banks make short-term loans to corporations for financing day-to-day operations, may cease functioning.
That's why some economists want the Fed to slash the discount rate more aggressively. The rate at the Fed's discount window is more expensive than in private markets, thereby earning the federal government a premium when banks borrow.
But if the Fed were to lower that discount rate, perhaps even below the federal funds rate, it would remove the stigma of borrowing from the government, spur borrowing and enliven credit markets.
The last time the Fed cut rates it warned borrowers they shouldn't assume more cuts would be coming because the risks from recession and inflation were roughly balanced.
This time economists widely interpreted the Fed statement, with its focus on "deterioration" of financial conditions, as an indication that more cuts will be coming in early 2008. Fed policymakers next meet Jan. 30.
FED should learn from Danaharta by purchasing those NPL as to enable all the bank and finance institution able to start afresh with their operation without bug down with huge NPL.
While TL may not like a lot of Malaysia economy policies, TL got to salute Danaharta for their superb work.
TL : MALAYSIA kadang-kadang BOLEH !
TL reply to LCS : About your doubts in interest rate, TL may not be able to explain very well. Please read below. U may take some cue here. At the point of writing this message, the Dow Jones Future slide further - 88 points.
Fed Rate Cut Halts Market Free Fall,
But Recession Fears Are Mounting
Foreign Shares' Tumble
Prompts Bernanke Call;
Biggest Trim in 20 Years
By GREG IP
January 23, 2008; Page A1
Ben Bernanke blinked.
The Federal Reserve chairman, who normally tries to avoid reacting directly to financial markets, saw global markets in free fall, and yesterday abruptly orchestrated the single deepest cut in the Fed's main interest-rate target in more than two decades.
CREDIT CRUNCH: THE FED ACTS
The move shored up confidence, at least for the moment. U.S. and many global markets quickly rebounded from huge losses in response to the three-quarter percentage-point cut in the target for the federal-funds rate, to 3.5%.
But in a sign that risks to the U.S. and global economy remain strong, the Fed hinted another rate cut next week is likely. The central bank's moves may be too late to stop the U.S. from entering recession, as many economists now forecast, but it may make one milder and shorter.
By acting so explicitly in response to market developments -- just a week before a scheduled meeting to decide on rates -- the Fed is running a risk. Investors may view the steps as panicky, undermining the goal of the rate cuts. And investors may come to judge the Fed's success narrowly, by how the stock market, rather than the economy as a whole, performs.
Still, Fed officials agreed on the emergency move during a videoconference call convened hastily Monday evening by Mr. Bernanke. It came after Mr. Bernanke spent Monday in the office, despite the national holiday, watching the fallout as Asian and European markets plummeted and consulting with aides. Futures markets Monday were predicting a 4% plunge Tuesday in U.S. stocks.
His main concern: Investor fears of an economic catastrophe could become self-fulfilling. Another big drop in U.S. stocks, on top of a 15% decline since last October, would represent a hit to household wealth on top of eroding home values. Falling asset prices could force banks to take more write-downs, further eroding capital and constricting credit. Mr. Bernanke believed the Fed should try to short-circuit the negative psychology, and that it stood a better chance by acting right away instead of waiting a week. It was the first time the Fed has cut rates between meetings since the aftermath of the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, down as much as 464 points early in the morning, later recovered to close down 128.11 points, or 1%. European markets, which were falling steeply for a second straight day, reversed course and closed higher on the Fed's action.
"Appreciable downside risks to growth remain," the Fed said in a statement, vowing to "act in a timely manner as needed to address those risks." Futures markets see a high likelihood of another half-point cut, to 3%, at the meeting scheduled for next Tuesday and Wednesday , and see the Fed bringing its target as low as 2% by year end.
"The sense was that we were facing a meltdown," said former Fed governor Laurence Meyer, now at forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers LLC. "That was the reason for trying to get out in front rather than trying to sit out on the sidelines." The move would be "pointless" if it merely shifted a scheduled rate cut ahead by a week, he added. The aim, he predicted, is to get the rate lower by month's end than it otherwise would have been. He predicted a half-point cut next week.
Mr. Bernanke's rate cut is a telling sign of the urgency with which policy makers are responding to the risk of recession. The Bush administration is pushing for a fiscal stimulus package of $145 billion composed primarily of temporary tax breaks. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson told the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in response to a question yesterday that the Fed's rate cut is "constructive...That should be a confidence builder." After President Bush met congressional leaders at the White House amid growing anxiety about the economy, there was speculation that a fiscal stimulus bill might exceed $145 billion, or that it might be accompanied by measures that would take effect automatically later in the year if the economy weakens.
The odds of recession are rising, and some economists believe the U.S. already has entered one, or is about to do so. "The best forecast now, based on guesstimates of first-quarter data, is that we're not in a recession right now," said Robert Gordon, a Northwestern University economist who sits on the academic National Bureau of Economic Research committee that officially dates recessions. But he says odds favor a recession starting late this quarter or next quarter. Merrill Lynch yesterday predicted that the economy will contract in each of the first three quarters of the year.
Today's economy shows some signs that are common to most recessions: Stock prices are falling; long-term interest rates are dropping below the level of short-term rates; housing construction is declining; and the unemployment rate is up sharply.
But some usual indicators aren't flashing recession. Employers haven't trimmed employee work weeks, as they commonly do when demand trails off; initial claims for unemployment insurance have been dropping recently, and inventories aren't unusually high, which makes it less urgent for manufacturers to scale back production. "There is no clear evidence" a recession has begun, said Victor Zarnowitz, a scholar at the Conference Board who is also a member of the NBER committee, "but it bears watching very, very closely.''
The Federal Reserve made an emergency 0.75% rate cut, the largest move in a quarter century. Economics reporter Sudeep Reddy discusses the implications.
Consumers are feeling the pinch of weaker job growth and higher energy prices. Darion Hammie of Inglewood, Calif., who makes about $50,000 as logistics coordinator for a freight-forwarding company, has been cutting back on everything from Christmas toys to organic groceries. Her wages are rising, but rent on her two-bedroom house has risen $200 to $1,400 a month from last year. Filling her Ford Explorer costs $80, up from $40 or $50 a few years ago. So she has largely abandoned Whole Foods for less-expensive supermarkets, and enrolled her children in the lunch program at school. "I have to make choices that I never thought I would have to make," she says.
Businesses are also cutting back in response to tighter lending conditions and weaker demand. Dan Imbrogno, president of Ohio Screw Products Inc., a manufacturer in Elyria, Ohio, started noticing a slowdown in inquiries a few months ago in September, which accelerated in the past month. His company, which makes hydraulic fittings as well as screws and bolts, took delivery of a computerized metal-cutting machine last fall that cost more than $100,000 and was planning to get a second machine early this year. He has now canceled the order.
The Fed move marks a radical shift for Mr. Bernanke. Since August, the Fed has cut its target for the federal-funds rate -- at which banks lend to each other overnight -- three times by a full percentage point. But at no time was it willing to say it was more worried about the weakening economy than inflation, a reflection of the stubbornness of price pressures emanating in particular from energy costs.
But by earlier this month, weakening employment, retail sales and manufacturing activity convinced Mr. Bernanke the risks to the economy were paramount. In a Jan. 10 speech he promised "substantive" action, widely read as a promise to cut rates further. Many in the markets expected a cut shortly at that time. Some Fed officials saw merit in the idea.
Mr. Bernanke thought it better to act at next week's scheduled meeting. But market events forced his hand. Last week, bond insurers faced the threat of rating downgrades that would force banks to take on billions of dollars of added default risk, and then came the global stock-market plunge on Monday.
The Fed itself and markets were closed for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday, but Mr. Bernanke -- who comes into the office seven days a week -- was at his desk. After consulting with Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Timothy Geithner and Vice Chairman Donald Kohn, he convened a videoconference call of the Federal Open Market Committee. Since economic fundamentals justified a significant rate cut, the main issue was convincing the committee that it should be done now. All but one of the participants, William Poole, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, voted for the move. He didn't believe conditions justified moving before the meeting, the Fed said. Another member, Fed governor Frederic Mishkin, was on a skiing trip and unable to get to a secure Fed facility in time for the session.
The timing may resurrect accusations that the Fed is too quick to bail out investors at the expense of low inflation and prudent behavior. And by setting aside the longstanding preference of moving only at meetings, the FOMC risks looking desperate. Vincent Reinhart, a former top staffer at the Fed who is now a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, said the Fed may have put itself in "harm's way" by basing its action so explicitly on market developments.
"If markets go down after you've acted, do you jeopardize some of your credibility? I think they did," Mr. Reinhart says. If market panic resumes, "You are then faced with the question, what is plan B?"
But former Fed governor Lyle Gramley, who now follows the Fed for Stanford Washington Group, says the risk of not acting was larger. "You have a credibility problem whenever things don't go right," he said. "You have a much larger credibility problem twiddling your thumbs, doing nothing, when the economy is going down the tubes."
Before announcing the rate cut Tuesday, the Fed notified its counterparts in Japan, Britain, Canada and the European Central Bank. By the end of the day, only the Bank of Canada had followed suit, lowering its short-term rate a quarter of a percentage point at a scheduled meeting, as expected. But the governor of the Bank of England suggested rate cuts in the U.K. are likely, and markets anticipate the European Central Bank -- despite its tough rhetoric about inflation worries -- will follow later this year. (Please see related story on page A22.)
The Fed said it acted because of a "weakening of the economic outlook and increasing downside risks to growth. Broader financial market conditions have continued to deteriorate and credit has tightened further for some businesses and households. Moreover, incoming information indicates a deepening of the housing contraction as well as some softening in labor markets." It also said it expects "inflation to moderate in coming quarters" though it will "monitor inflation developments carefully."
Stanford economist Robert Hall, chairman of the seven-member NBER committee that dates recession, said colleagues on the usually dormant panel have begun to discuss the numbers by email. "The crystallizing event was the weak employment numbers at the beginning of the month," Mr. Hall said. It would not announce a starting date for any recession until well after one has started, he said.
Typically, lower interest rates begin to help revive a sagging economy by spurring purchases and construction of homes. But the deflating real-estate boom has left an unprecedented share of homes standing unsold and vacant, says Columbia Business School economist Christopher Mayer, suggesting the moves may have less effect than usual. "No matter how much the Fed cuts interest rates we are not going to see an appreciable pickup in home construction for a couple of years," he says.
Lou Barnes, president of Boulder West Inc., a Lafayette, Colo., mortgage bank, said the cuts will help only those home buyers who qualify for prime mortgages of $417,000 or less. Banks that used to originate mortgages for less-than-perfect credits or for amounts above $417,000 are reluctant to do so because they can't sell them to investors and have little room left on their own balance sheets for them. (Mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can't buy mortgages above $417,000.)
Still, lower short-term rates will produce benefits that grow with time. Because banks usually borrow for shorter terms than they lend, the reduction in short-term rates will make lending more profitable and thus appealing. Major banks yesterday lowered their prime lending rates to 6.5% from 7.25%, which will deliver savings to anyone with a prime-linked loan, such as on a home-equity line of credit.
Stanford's Mr. Hall said while fiscal stimulus plans will take too long to influence the economy significantly, by contrast, "the Fed can turn on a dime as it did this morning. Claims that it's lost its grip on the economy are misplaced."
The current month is proving to be a critical test of Mr. Bernanke's leadership. He became chairman in February 2006, intending to be more collegial than his predecessor, Alan Greenspan. He made sure fellow FOMC members had their say before he settled on the course for interest rates, tried to stay out of the limelight and to avoid explicit clues on interest rates. While that style worked in his first year on the job, it has been criticized since the crisis erupted in August for encouraging Fed officials to air multiple, often disparate, views when the markets most want clarity. Officials have since been advised to hedge their remarks more carefully, people close to the Fed say.
Mr. Bernanke also tried to focus the market's attention more on explicit forecasts than verbal clues. In October, the Fed released the first of expanded quarterly economic projections which helped quantify the inflation rate the Fed is aiming for. But like most of the Fed's projections lately, that forecast was made obsolete within days by the intensifying credit crunch and housing slump.
Wall Street has been quick to vilify Mr. Bernanke for being slow and indecisive. "A number of our clients believe Bernanke has lost it and they are uncertain as to what the Fed is up to," ISI Group, a New York brokerage firm, wrote in a morning report. Greg Peters, head of credit strategy at Morgan Stanley, said, "I think the Fed definitely has lost a decent amount of credibility...they have been behind the curve and reacted to the market and that doesn't engender a lot of confidence."
But Mr. Bernanke's defenders note he has plenty of company: Most Wall Street economists have also had to mark down growth expectations and mark up expected Fed easing as the outlook has deteriorated since August. Investors also wrongly thought the worst had passed in October when they pushed stocks to their last, all-time high.
Moreover, even as Mr. Bernanke battles the risk of recession, inflation has not faded from view. "You have the underlying inflation rate moving in the wrong direction," noted Al Broaddus, former president of the Richmond Fed. If the Fed is going to be flexible in the face of risks to growth, "it needs to move back in the other direction as soon as the balance is shifting back towards inflation risk. And it's not easy to do that."
Yesterday's move came closer to the day of a scheduled meeting than any between-meetings move since the Fed began announcing rate changes in 1994. The Fed last cut the target for the federal-funds rate in one move by as much as three-quarters of a point back in 1982, when it was lowered a full point. Prior to 1994, however, the Fed publicized only the less-important discount rate, charged on the Fed's direct loans to banks. It cut that rate a full percentage point in 1991.
Hang Seng up 2400 pts!! and US Future is up 44 pts now. Good news? ....
To TL: Thx a lot for your reply.
DJ futures turns green dy...and HK rose about 2,000. i m wondering how long the effect of steroid can maintain??...
Actually i m 20+, a newbie in the stock market. My mum has lost about 70k early of 2007 because had followed the tips given by her fren.That was her hard earned money and she is so upset.Now i m trying to gain back the money. I m still holding ecm, airasia, engtex, rcecap, skpres, keladi, mrcb, scomi,tebrau, uembldr and onastel. (some of them were bought by my mum such as scomi, uembldr, mrcb and tebrau).Am i holding too many counters. I m vry worried about the recent market.
Hopefully i can get some advise from from all the sifu here(Sam, TL, Ben and Tailow). millons thx in advance.
祝福大家！！
Sam,
Glad to obtain some info on Feng Shui, I shifted the direction according to the info provided, i think it would help. Well, sam, just a question about Public Mutual, can i start investing in Public mutual now for long term basis, let say 1 yr, RM100 per month since the market will not be good in yr 2008. Will PB mutual affected as the market is not really good this yr.
Thanks for your comment in advanced.
TL, you are good man. US regulators are considering plan to rescue bond insurers.
Maybe they will consider to buy NPL later on.
I think yesterday is the biggest upper and lower limit diff I've ever seen, NYSE opening dropped >250pts but closing shot up 298pts!!
Wow ....TL was wrong again. Poor me. Today market will turn Green.
TL wish all Sam & buddies have a good harvest today !
For TL, I will sit side way as a loser. What interest TL are those soon the be reveal 4th Q 2007 financial result of USA heavy weight company. Will take there for cue in next month.
Big names like Citigroup already write down billion of $$. Who next and how much $$$.
Wednesday January 23, 2008
Gloomy outlook for US financial results
NEW YORK: Wall Street analysts turned increasingly gloomy over US financial results for the first two quarters of 2008 as well as the fourth quarter of 2007, according to a weekly survey by Reuters Estimates.
The survey showed analysts expected S&P 500 companies’ first-quarter earnings to grow just 4% year-on-year in the first quarter, and 4.2% in the second quarter.
That compares with a growth outlook of 4.5% and 4.4%, respectively, in last week’s survey, and is down from Oct 1 expectations of 11.4% and 9.4% growth.
Analysts forecast fourth-quarter earnings to fall 10.9% from a year earlier. That was worse than the 9.1% fall forecast last week, and a stark contrast to the 11.5 % growth forecast in the Oct 1 survey.
The financial sector was expected to show the weakest performance in the fourth quarter, amid reports of big write-downs and exposure to capital-strapped bond insurers. The sector’s earnings were expected to fall 69% year-on-year.
Citigroup Inc said last week that its fourth-quarter loss was a record US$9.83bil. The company also announced plans to raise US$14.5bil, slash its dividend and cut 4,200 jobs to shore up its balance sheet.
Merrill Lynch & Co Inc’s quarterly results, also announced last week, showed a net loss of US$9.8bil. It also unveiled about US$16bil in mortgage-related write-downs and adjustments.
YAT LOU SOON FUNG !
Sifu Sam
Would it be a wise move to swap KFIMA into INSAS(GE Theme)?
Please comment. Tq
gk, when market down, surely Public mutual will go down accordingly, but surely in a much slower pace. Mutual Fund is meant for long term. If you are looking at monthly instalment, you have no worry about market (the power of dollar cost averaging)
TL..still too early to say u r wrong ..ha ha.. but yr foresight is still as sharp as those day !
Ha ha dont forget after 28 Feb,,this blog is ben n yr baby..ok ?
Kfima to insas ? both also political link stock, but insas's volume is much higher than kfima. not a bad swap.. dont hold it 4 long, ride on its up n down wave.
Sifu Sam
Thanks for your reply on Kfima to Insas. If it is a 'not bad' swap, what would be an even better swap in your opinion.
Do allow me to have your opinion again on one more question. I have been holding LPF and noticed that this counter has not been inching up while the other plantation counters have been very bullish in the past weeks riding on increasing CPO prices.
What is your opinion on swapping to another plantation counter which has better FA like Cepat? TSH?
Pls comment. tq
which r d better stock to swap ? well..since mahsing is still trading far above my cost, i would say Liondiv is worth 4 swap.
My standing is still d same, I didnt buy in anything during d fall neither selling any shares off ^V^
Heard that there will be another cut by Feb this coming month end, 0.5 again ? .. 1st of Feb is holiday , then followed by CNY , I might sell some off on 31 of Jan after d FOC meeting n buy back if prices going cheaper after that .
stay tune , i will post it up here if there any share disposal from me , as u know, after hand call is not my style ^V^
Hey sifu, Jason Ma Chai here! :) Wei never hear from you at YM one? You pang me big peh ki la. Humble Student you are right, (Dollar cost averaging-DCA) method is the best way for Mutual funds.
If you can do DCA for stocks like Genting, also good! Same concept..
TAKE A LOOK, SOMEONE SHARE D SAME VIEWS WITH ME :-
http://itv.ifeng.com/vplay.aspx?id=cd4976ee-41c4-452e-9f03-35b96a67d1c6
I AM NOT TELLING U THAT SHARES MKT 4 08 IS GOOD, JUST WANNA TO TELL U WHEN ONE ECONOMY MACHINE WENT DOWN, WE HV ANOTHER 2 KICK IT UP :-
D DRAGON N D ELEPHANT.
TAKE A LOOK, SOMEONE SHARE D SAME VIEWS WITH ME :-
http://itv.ifeng.com/vplay.aspx?id=cd4976ee-41c4-452e-9f03-35b96a67d1c6
I AM NOT TELLING U THAT SHARES MKT 4 08 IS GOOD, JUST WANNA TO TELL U WHEN ONE ECONOMY MACHINE WENT DOWN, WE HV ANOTHER 2 KICK IT UP :-
D DRAGON N D ELEPHANT
N ALSO, WHEN USD GOING DOWN N DOWN, ASIA CURRENCY WILL CLIMB UP N UP !
D PROBLEM NOW IS "MKT 'S CONFIDENCE " , EVERYBODY WAITING FOR IT , NOONE DARE TO GO ALL OUT N JUMP IN ! U WAIT FOR ME , I WAIT FOR U ^v^ HA HA
The fraud case reported by Societe Generale - the 2nd biggest bank in France just like putting minyak tanah on fire of subprime crisis.
For those who are not using internet trading yet, I strongly advise you to apply one right now. Since you know how to use computer to access to this blog, you should be deemed computer literature.
Today i cue 10lots of Crestbld-wa at RM0.485 thru my remisier and only 1.3lots was done. In another word, I still have to pay min brokerage of RM45 for total proceeds of 1.3lots of RM630. It representing 7% of my proceeds. Wah!! Really bleeding ....
Moral of story, either you apply internet trading right now, or avoiding those counters without liquidity.
Sam....
Still holding some dps, keladi, onastel, liondiv and evergrn.
I think our market also need some stimulus in form of confidence from our PM.
Hope to see some light before cny.
Cheers...
I cut loss on some counters today as I measure risk exposure has exceeded my tolerable limit. I feel more comfortable to have some cash in hand right now especially seeing HSI suddenly dropped 200pts up another 200pts down then dropped 550pts in a day. Really like roller coaster - scary enough, not suitable for a uncle like me. ^_^
Sam...
2 Questions...
- What is the reason for ie.Tabung Haji to purchases a lot of shares in a company ?
- What does consistent share buy back by company indicates ?
Trying to understand more on the above actions. Kindly revert. Thanks.
Fraud is the thing I most worrying about. But it happened in France - 2nd largest bank Societe Generale of the country announced Euro4.9bil losses (₤3.8b) fraud losses caused by one rougue trader.
Is this case sound familiar to all of you? Yes, the infamous rougue trader Nick Leeson who caused the collapsed of Barings Bank. Fyi, he only made ₤860mil losses back in 1995.
12years later, finally someone break his record by losing almost 5times of what Nick did. Surprisingly, this french bank is strong enough to take the losses together with additional billion of dollars of subprime crisis writedown. According to bloomberg, french bank is planning to raise ₤5.5bil capital to restore the balance sheet. I wonder what will happen should french man unable to sell their shares .... (to be continue)
Personal opinion; too early for stimulus from PM. Will probably be timed along with the GE announcement. =) Everyone is looking at US for direction like what Sam said.
Some corporate increase shareholder value by reducing number of shares floating in the market thru shares buy back. Eg. YTL
However, some company bought back shares are for the purpose of jetting up share price in order for some insider to unload their shareholding in the market at better price. One possible example is Symphony, ex-danaharta boss just sold off bulk of his shareholding after massive buy back (pls don’t sue me, I’m just curious why the timing so “gum”, beside I have no money ^_^). So will ECM do the same? I guess you all should know what to do if such thing happen …
BEN.. ha ha.. follow d advice of astrology ? ha ha.. me too..this year is not my year though I was born in month of summer , no attack for this year !
Guys, u can see this is a waiting game in KLSE, vol thin, everybody waiting 4 each other , u wait 4 me , i wait 4 u ^V^ wait 4 durians to fall !
to mykee888, In common, share buy back by company indicates they r confident with their company ro there might be some "goodies " happening in it , tabunghaji bought lots of steel stocks b4 d announcement of steel pricing , same like what Tabung Haji did in ramunia lately , see how heavy they bought b4 d announcement came out !
Too bad , she carried d name of Tabung Haji , if she carried d name of Temasek or Goldman sachs..i will surely follow them to buy ^V^
Sifu(s),
What do you guys think of landmark? Heard from a friend about this counter. Noticed its vol has been picking up tremendeously lately.
Thanks!
Bro Sam, recently read an article saying the current pe of Dow J is ard 16 and sure would go down to <10 due to recession ie from current level of 12k to 8-9k and most of the major bluechip mnc will have pe 5-10. frightening is't? but not to some smart guy.
ever wonder why W Buffet has been keeping cash of us40 billion quite some time. think he is still hopeful big sales is going to happen soon and will be smiling when he can grap mnc like AIA/GE/BOA/coca at pe <10.
this sifu is really amazing and has been practising his famous quote "when there is nothing to do, do nothing" all this while if u follow his movements.
shd follow his footstep very closely at least his intelligent is way ahead of the mkt.
btw, planning to reduce my holding to not more than 20% by end feb. at the same
time I will daydreaming grapping cimb/pbb/ioi/genting/klk etc at pe <8. isn’t life is more meaningful when we have reasons to live?
Landmark vol is picking up, Fa wise ..doesnt look that good , dont be misleaded by its eps of 102.55 cts, .. its PE is bit high @ 3.22 , unless u hv solid news n tips, otherwise it is definitely not a FA buy.
Warren buffets.. what else can we say more ? he is best of d best !
2 fa, i wish u will never buy PBB, genting , klk @ PE < 10, cos i dont want to see blood across d bursa street !
Mkt volume seems like picking up n can see a liitle bit of confidence coming back , if u have disposed all d shares b4 d slump n looking to buy in some.. my advice, Liondiv @ 1.65 is dirt cheap . cash rich in hand, NTA 3.50 , PE < 10 ..n more..for her to bounce back > 1.90 is really sup sup sui ! this might be d only stock I hold after 28 Feb ^V
can't get into yr blog, sam
ben.....meaning u have already disppose your ECM liao?if yes, then better let every1 know too...u make the call...many follow and buy, if u wanna let go....plas inform us too...
Market is speculating another 50bps cut in next week Fed mthly scheduled meeting. The risk of Fed disappointing crowd is high, it is very unlikely for Fed to cut rate further because market react positively after 75bps cut few days ago. For my point of view, unless market go adversely, otherwise the odd of Fed cut rate is very unlikely. My estimation the most will only be 25bps.
I am quite worrying that a qtr point cut may disappoint the crowd and trigger another round of selling!! For those who like to play safe, you may dispose before Fed’s announcement on 30-31 Jan; for those risktaker who like to ride on CNY+GE themeplay, just hold on to your shareholding and ride together with Samgangs. ^_^
Good news is Morgan stanley call to invest in Malaysia as it predict BNM will allow faster appreciation of Ringgit to hedge against inflation just exactly like what I have commented earlier. ^_^
After selling off my Lion-Div at losses for a few hundred Ringgit since 23 Jan 2008, TL managed to use some money to fly to Wall Streets and meet up with Mr Dow.
Mr Dow : That day I having bad stomach ache and went to see Mr FED. He given me a lot of medicine ( interest rate cut )to eat, but never bother to give me some sugar. After eating all the dosage, I do feel better. Now can run and jump. But my tongue taste a bit funny...sometime taste very sour and sometime tasteless.
Mr. Dow : But after 2 days eating the medicine, the 3rd day I feel that the pain back abit. ( 2 day up 1 day down )
TL : Did you go back and see the same doctor - Mr FED ?
Mr Dow : Yes...he ask me to go back home first because by next week ( FED meeting ) he will give me some more medicine again. He ask me finish eating those existing medicine. But he got remind me to add the dosage from 10ml to 25ml. Instead of 3 times a day, he ask me to eat 6 times per day.
TL : So how are u now ?
Mr Dow : Feeling so-so oni ( Dow Future after trading hour slump 129 points )
TL : Why not I bring you to Fatshan to see Master Wong ( Fei-hong ) ?
TL : I pay for your air ticket ? ON ?
Mr Dow : Why not. Since today and tommorow I am free ( no trading )
When reached Fatshan, TL and Mr Dow step in a trishaw and headed towards Poh-Chi-Lam. We are greeted by a door keeper with a big fat belly ( Chu Yuk Weng )
After waiting for approx 6 hours, Mr Dow was call in for treatment.
Master Wong : What is your problem ? ( a half tanker translator was inside the room since Master Wong doesn't speak Ang-Moh )
Mr Dow : Stomach pain
Master Wong : Since when ?
Mr Dow : Since 1 year ago ( subprime problem already persist for so long but FED deny the gloom and doom.....)
Master Wong : Wah lau ! Now oni you see doctor ?
Mr Dow : No choice lah. 'Up ' people ask me to tahan...and tahan...cannot tell people mah..later all people will scare...
Master Wong : Okay. Let me read your pulse....
After checking, look like Mr Dow internal major organ like kidney, heart and liver all suffered tremendous failure and need treatment. Master Wong prescribe some long list of herbs and ask TL to bring Mr Dow to Hai-O to buy.
Conclusion :
When Mr Dow back to Wall Street, he put both medicine on the table. One is from Mr FED, and the other is from Master Wong.
TL : Mr Dow, you decide which one you want to eat. If we are destine to meet again, I hope that you are still alive.
TL " MAKAN LION-D, TIDUR LION-D ".....will continue to sing this old jazz ....never change....will never change !
Sorry I thought you all only following Sam's call instead of mine.
I still hold on to ECM because knowing good news is going to be announced soon. But of course very depend on the timing of announcement.
I cut loss on Onastel, Liondiv and Mahsing, cresbld-wa.
I am holding the opinion that turmor of recession is growing but it's still to early to comment when will this turmor explode.
I am worrying on:
1. slumping of property price: already happen in US and spreading to UK, slowly to worldwide.
2. Fraudulent cases: we got 2nd largest french bank Euro4.9bil trading loss and NY sued countrywide underwriters; trust me, more to come.
3. Out of controlled inflation: potential riot/anti govt protest to happen by poor ppl who can't afford to live.
4. War/Terrorism: oil rich country are mostly extreame islamist, they have plenty of bullet to "revenge". Unlikely but possible, will only happen if the first 3 doesn't bring us recession.
As a result I short on property and direct related industries such as steel. But of course I can't rule out the possibility that domestic demand (especially with all the corridors) might help to boost these counters, that's why I am still holding small amt of Liondiv and Onastel.
p/s: the next themeplay otherthan CNY and GE could be cement. But believe that will be after March 15(potential GE date).
TL, you wong fei hong is really classic joke. Really hilarious. ^_^
Fed Watch
Futures contracts show a 78 percent chance that the Federal Reserve will cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.5 percentage point to 3 percent when policy makers hold their next scheduled meeting on Jan. 30-31. The rest of the bets are for a quarter- point reduction
Season finale - Mr Dow story.
MR DOW FINALLY DECIDED TO EAT ANG-MOH MEDICINE. HE CAN'T BEAR THE PAIN OF SOURISH CHINESE HERBS.
Quote
Fed Watch
Futures contracts show a 78 percent chance that the Federal Reserve will cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.5 percentage point to 3 percent when policy makers hold their next scheduled meeting on Jan. 30-31. The rest of the bets are for a quarter- point reduction : Unquote
TL : TOO MUCH FROM FED WILL BRING MORE DISTRESS RATHER THAN COMFORT.
"It looks like the Fed wasn't reacting to economic moves but market movements," said David Kelly, chief market strategist for JPMorgan Funds.
TL ADVISE : THOSE NEWBIES ON THE BLOCK, PLEASE DO LISTEN TO SIFU SAM ADVISE BEFORE YOU BUNGY JUMP. YOU MAY PROBABLY LANDED ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THE CLIFF. THIS MARKET VOLATILITY NEED SOMEONE WITH TONNES OF EXPERIENCE ( SIFU-SAM ) TO TRADE. SEEK HIS ADVISE BEFORE YOU SELL OR BUY ANY STOCKS.
OTHERWISE YOUR OLD CROCODILE UNDER WEAR GOT TO PAWN FOR CHINESE NEW YEAR ANGPOW ! DON'T PLAY-PLAY
Ben,, see ? i told u b4, TL is not an ordinary human, this guy got six sense , special ability n sharp foresight ha ha..right TL ? follow my advice b4 newbies jump into KLSE ? dont under estimate them , some of them r much much better than me , just that they choosed to be low profile only,..sorry..i am referring to FA newbies only, TA ? mot in my list at all.
Bro, yr buddy Chan Chun Chuan came to see me just now , we chat about yr glory days .. ha ha , n also , if u ever drop by in KL this coming CNY , pay a visit to him , he will bring u to c me..so we can talk "jesus n buddha" again.. will u ?
^V^
Ben,, see ? i told u b4, TL is not an ordinary human, this guy got six sense , special ability n sharp foresight ha ha..right TL ? follow my advice b4 newbies jump into KLSE ? dont under estimate them , some of them r much much better than me , just that they choosed to be low profile only,..sorry..i am referring to FA newbies only, TA ? not in my list at all.
Bro, yr buddy Chan Chun Chuan came to see me just now , we chat about yr glory days .. ha ha , n also , if u ever drop by in KL this coming CNY , pay a visit to him , he will bring u to c me..so we can talk "jesus n buddha" again.. will u ?
^V^
Ben,, see ? i told u b4, TL is not an ordinary human, this guy got six sense , special ability n sharp foresight ha ha..right TL ? follow my advice b4 newbies jump into KLSE ? dont under estimate them , some of them r much much better than me , just that they choosed to be low profile only,..sorry..i am referring to FA newbies only, TA ? not in my list at all.
Bro, yr buddy Chan C C came to see me just now , we chat about yr glory days .. ha ha , n also , if u ever drop by in KL this coming CNY , pay a visit to him , he will bring u to c me..so we can talk "jesus n buddha" again.. will u ?
Yah..fyi , Chan C C has shifted from BHL trust to ???? , ask him yrself if u ever meet him up .
Nothing to shout about if u make a comparison with US n Russia ..but there must be something to start of .. all own effort without any assistance from d west , definitely not space passenger !!! read it >>>
http://itv.ifeng.com/v/200710/ceby/
嫦娥一号点火发射
解析“嫦娥”四大任务：三维探测超美俄
半个世纪以来，中国航天工业从无到有、从小到大、从弱到强，从仿制进程导弹到应用完成的地地、地空、海防导弹武器系统，从研制探空火箭到具备研制发射各种卫星和载人飞船的能力，航天技术从一片空白到跻身于世界先进行列，为增强国家的经济实力、科技实力、国防实力和民族凝聚力做出了巨大贡献。绕月探测工程将成为继人造地球卫星、载人航天之后，中国航天事业的又一个里程碑而永载史册
Hi sifu sam, i'm a new learner in FA. i wonder if you could give me a pointer?
my question --> since every company is having different fiscal year with different quarters, how do i compare them to its industry average? For example, ABC's fiscal year end on 30 JUN and it has just released its 2008 1st quarter report(30 SEPTEMBER 2008), while XYZ's fiscal year end on 31 OCTOBER and it has just released its 4th quarter report(31 OCTOBER 2008).
In other words, should i use same quarter or date from both companies for comparison?
Thank you so much!
From humble FA learner.
bro sam,
looks like another round of bleeding to come ?? with friday dow down maybe due to profit taking plus watchout for impending impact from that socgen
yes liondiv at 1.64 seems cheap maybe can get cheaper :D
evergreen LTH keeps collecting maybe good sign to collect slowly too
uncle ben maybe forced to cut again suspect the cutting trend and quantity maybe like the market trend -when market bull rate increases in smaller quantum and slowly; in market downtrend bear cut more dramatic it seems :?)
what do you think? still watching or wanna pickup some this coming week? for some CNY angpau kick? :D
TQVM, G'luck 2u & 128888
Sifu Sam
If Yin meet Yang....we shall meet up one day.
Well, why want to talk about Jesus and Buddha ? I would prefer we talk about parenting and may other 'human ' topic.
Both of world honor one doesn't need us to add feather to their cap. Each of them are far so superior for layman like us to talk. If we give wrong judgement, then we may attract bad karmic. So better stay neutral...ha ha !
Anyway, I do feel warm when you say seeing my old buddy, Bro CHan recently. Hope that he & his family is superb health.
Is TL previous good deed which permit TL to meet you in ' cyber '. TL is honor to hang around with u guys...
Take care and Happy CNY.
May your wisdom light all our sentient being.....forever !
Amitabha & Halleluyah & Insyallah
美联储29日再议息“最少降50个基点”2008年01月28日 09:23中国经济网【大 中 小】 【打印】美联储再次降息已无悬念，主要的疑问在降多少基点。继上周紧急降息75个基点之后，美联储将于当地时间29日召开例会再次议息。市场预计，美联储本次降息力度将达到50个基点，将联邦基准利率降至3%。如果本周初公布的一系列关键经济数据不乐观，不排除再次降息75个基点。
至少50基点
上周，美联储紧急实施了自1980年代以来幅度最大的一次降息，也是2001年以来首次在例会时间以外变更联邦基准利率。但市场对此并不满足，消息宣布后美国股市的继续波动显示了市场的期待。
再次降息的时间窗口恰恰就在本周，本月29-30日，美联储将召开例会。“我们预测美联储将在30日再次宣布降息50个基点，至3.00%。”美国银行资深经济学家克莱茨默的看法正代表了目前市场的主流预测。
事实上，美联储上周就曾暗示，如有必要，将进一步下调利率。“经济增长面临的显著下行风险仍然存在。联邦公开市场委员会将继续评估金融及其他市场状况对经济发展前景产生的影响，并将及时采取措施应对风险。”
市场人士指出，目前金融市场仍处于高度恐慌之中，由于美国政府1500亿美元的降税措施到二季度末之前对经济增长的刺激效应不会体现出来，因此美联储仍有意愿在近期以降息对冲经济衰退的风险。
75个基点仍有可能
尽管降息50个基点是目前市场的主流预测，但部分市场人士也坦言，如果本周公布的一系列经济指标超预期的糟糕，导致股市波动放大，不排除再次降息75个基点的可能性。
美国当地时间28日晚，美国总统布什将发表关于国情咨文的演讲，布什将在演讲中发表对目前美国经济局势更为系统的观点和态度。市场希望，继抛出1500亿美元的减税措施之后，布什将提供更多的经济刺激一揽子措施以及态度上的支持。
本周美国还将出台2007年四季度的GDP数据，按照市场目前的预测，GDP增速将从三季度的4.9%大幅下滑至1.2%。同时，就业数据、房地产销售数据以及一批道琼斯指数中大公司年报也将在本周陆续出台。上周降息之后，中美利差已呈现出数年以来的首次倒挂，中国利率超出了美国64个基点之多，如果美国本周继续降息50个基点，两国利差将达到100多点，而这势必进一步挤压中国的加息空间以及对海外套利热钱的管理难度。东方早报
Wowww !!!another 0.50 cut this coming FOC meeting !?..possible another 0.75 again ?? I wonder what will happen to ringgit n RMB n also inflation of US !??
118, what a fantastic match displayed by both Lin Dan n Li yun yi yesterday noon, superb game but spoiled by d fault line calls ! that's was definitely a "out " ! it has been replayed by cctv many times , anyway..we cant blame them , coz China also did d same in both China n HK open last year , dont blame ppl making " choa yat (1st day of lunar calendar) " if u did "sap ng (15) " to ppl .
Eric, use its post PE or past year PE to make a comparison if u dont know how to calculate d forward PE , alternatively , u can compare their Qtr earning individually .
For palm oil stock , they r traded at PE around 23+- , Finance >20 , steel around 10+ ....
Tcg82 , buy on dip ? that depends on yr current holding , if u yr shares vs cash exceeded 50% ! my advice , dont go in , hold on to yr existing shares . if u hv little explosure in shares , yes .. u r advice to buy on dip n sell once mkt rebound !
As for me , no buying no selling , let see how uncle ben cut his birthday cake this coming FOC ^V^
TL : Looking pretty bad now at DJIA Futures. Drop 100+.
http://finance.yahoo.com/indices?e=futures
Accross the board, the sell down seen in regional market.
Hope we can faster reach the bottom ( short term pain, long term gain )
TL : Quote <
Ben,, see ? i told u b4, TL is not an ordinary human, this guy got six sense , special ability n sharp foresight ha ha..right TL ? >
Sifu Sam, I hope that I am the one that you are talking, but too bad...I am not.
Take care.
TL, I think you and Sam are the two greatest combination in OSK forum last time. One with full of humble, the other full of strength of character, but both are superb.
Too bad can't meet you guys earlier ... 相逢恨晚! ^_^ (to Tailow too)
I think market is very desperate for the coming rate cut. Market have to shown as sick as possible in order to make Mr Fed to provide as much of pain killer as possible(in TL term). If market continue to behave in this way, 50 bps is very likely. Currently Mr Fed is more reactive rather than proactive.
Hi Bro Ben, may I correct your statement.
One is deep in pocket and one is still selling pork in Petaling Street...just kidding.
Long story short : Is my honor to meet Sifu Sam.....
the more rate cut, the more danger that the market will bring u to holland... Just like a person more sick more medicine killer then finally awaiting to die.. A sign of economic crisis coming soon.. everybody pls be ready!!!
TL : Mr Dow finally getting better after triple shot of steroid. Well, hope that Mr Dow able to sustain for longer period.
New home sales: Biggest drop ever
Weak December sales caps 2007's record slide, with prices for the month off sharply from a year earlier.
By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writer
January 28 2008: 4:40 PM EST
Existing home sales posted the biggest decline in 27 years, as prices of those homes posted their first decline on record.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- New home sales posted the biggest drop on record in 2007, according to the government's latest look at the battered housing market, as a year that saw a meltdown in the mortgage market and a drop in home values ended with yet more signs of weakness.
December sales came in at an annual rate of 604,000, the Census Bureau report showed, down from 634,000 in November, which was also revised lower.
The reading was well below the consensus forecast of 645,000, according to economists surveyed by Briefing.com.
The weak December sales left full-year new home sales at 774,000, down 26 percent from the 1.05 million sales in 2006. That was the biggest drop since the government started tracking new home sales in 1963, surpassing the 23 percent decline posted in 1980.
No bottom yet Adam York, an economist with Wachovia, said the report confirms fears that the housing market won't bounce back anytime soon.
"We're expecting sales to decline into at least mid-2008," he said. "We think housing still has a long way to go."
The mortgage market woes were a major part of the problem for new home sales in 2007. Homes financed by conventional mortgages fell 27 percent, the biggest drop since the government started tracking financing in 1988.
But the weakness in prices made buyers reluctant to jump into the market, even if the availability of financing was not an issue. The number of new homes bought with cash fell nearly 24 percent, while mortgages guaranteed by federal agencies such as the Federal Housing Administration or the Veterans Administration fell 16 percent.
Existing homes post first annual price drop
There are rising concerns among economists that the problems in housing could drag the overall economy into a recession, if it hasn't done so already.
Rate cuts may not help The Federal Reserve has cited problems in housing as one of the main reasons it has cut rates by 1.75 percentage points since September. Many economists are forecasting further rate cuts at the central bank's meeting on Wednesday.
But more rate cuts might not help housing recover in the next few months.
Mike Larson, a real estate analyst with Weiss Research, expects further home price declines in the coming months due to the rising rate of unemployment.
"We've had the downturn in housing up until recently without any downturn in employment," he said. "Now if you layer on broad economic weakness on top of the glut of homes on the market, that's another reason I don't think the problem will be solved with Fed rate cuts."
Glut of home driving down prices The median price of a new home sold in December was $219,200, down 10.4 percent from $244,700 a year earlier. It was the sharpest year-over-year drop in monthly median home prices since 1970. .
This decline probably doesn't accurately capture the weakness in prices for new homes, as about three out of four builders have reported having to pay buyers' closing costs or offer other incentives such as expensive features for free in order to maintain sales.
Prices have been driven down by the glut of new homes on the market. The report showed a record 195,000 completed new homes available at the end of the period, bringing total inventory - including new homes under construction and not yet started - to 494,000, equal to a nearly 10-month supply.
Builders were finding it typically takes 6.3 months to sell a completed home in the current market, according to the report. That's the longest it's taken them to sell a complete home since March 1993.
The report is the latest sign of trouble in the overall housing market.
Last week, the National Realtors Association reported that 2007 saw the biggest drop in the pace of existing single-family homes in 27 years. It was also the first year on record that existing home prices fell. An earlier Census Bureau report showed housing starts posted their biggest drop in 27 years as well.
Homebuilders suffer The downturn in home sales has hammered the results of the nation's leading homebuilders, and experts see no hopes for a quick recovery.
Last week, Lennar (LEN, Fortune 500), the nation's biggest homebuilder, reported a $1.25 billion fourth-quarter loss, the largest in the company's history.
Earlier this month, KB Home (KBH, Fortune 500), the nation's No. 5 builder by sales, reported a fiscal fourth quarter loss that was nearly 10 times worse than forecasts. CEO Jeff Mezger told investors during an earnings call that "as we enter 2008, we see no indication markets are stabilizing."
Analysts are also forecasting that No. 2 homebuilder Centex (CTX, Fortune 500), No. 3 D.R. Horton (DHI, Fortune 500) and No. 4 Pulte Homes (PHM, Fortune 500) will all report continuing losses until at least their final quarters of this calendar year. Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV, Fortune 500), the sixth-largest homebuilder, is expected to post losses in both fiscal 2008 and 2009.
The company forecast to see the quickest return to profitability is luxury home builder Toll Brothers (TOL, Fortune 500), which is expected to post a narrow gain in the quarter ending in July. It reported its first loss as a public company in its most recent period, which ended in October.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The worst housing financial crisis in decades is only going to get worse, a Merrill Lynch report said Wednesday.
The investment bank forecasted a 15 percent drop in housing prices in 2008 and a further 10 percent drop in 2009, with even more depreciation likely in 2010.
By contrast, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) expects housing prices to remain flat in 2008. NAR did cut its home price estimate for the current quarter, however, to a 5.3 percent year-over-year decline, which represents the steepest drop in that price measure on record. But NAR sees an uptick in home prices in the last two quarters of 2008.
"Merrill Lynch's figures are way too pessimistic, and they are unprecedented," Lawrence Yun, the National Association of Realtors chief economist told CNNMoney.com. "There is so much variation in local housing markets, and we see stable price conditions for 2008."
The current housing crisis and the depreciation in home prices have pummeled the economy, with businesses and consumers cutting back on spending, raising the specter of a recession. "Lower sales and higher inventory for sales are lowering the velocity of transactions," said Fritz Siebel, Director of US Property Derivatives for Tradition Financial Services. "That cannot be a sign of good health for the economy."
But for those who think that the worst is over, Merrill Lynch said that housing prices still remain comparatively high. The brokerage believes that home prices are still far above historical norms when compared to other measures such as rent or GDP. "By our calculations, it will take about a 20 to 30 percent decline in home prices to correct this imbalance," said the report.
Merrill Lynch believes that housing starts will most likely slide another 30 percent by the end of 2008 - a historic low.
The report says that the inventory situation only continues to worsen, as homebuilders are now looking at more than a nine months' supply. "The current supply/demand environment does not favor a swift recovery in the housing market, in our view," according to the report.
Yun agrees that the reduction in housing starts will not bode well for the economy, especially in the homebuilding industry, but he believes that the reduction will soothe the housing market by slowing the glut in inventory. "The reduction in housing starts is not stabilizing the economy, but it will stabilize the market," said Yun.
Rate cut, stimulus plan could restart housing
Mon Jan 28, 2008 6:54pm EST
By Lynn Adler - Analysis
NEW YORK (Reuters) - A hefty Federal Reserve rate cut and a stimulus plan that would expand the availability of home loans may reinvigorate the beleaguered U.S. housing market and help the broader economy along with it.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut of three-quarters of a percentage point at an emergency meeting last week spawned a series of events that left mortgage rates at their lowest level in nearly four years.
Meanwhile, pent-up demand for high-priced homes could be met if, as outlined in a U.S. fiscal plan unveiled last week, the limit on conforming loans Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can buy is raised as much as 75 percent for a year. The two companies are federally mandated to keep mortgage funds flowing.
The two events could stabilize a beleaguered housing sector that has hacked away more than 1 percentage point from economic growth, professors and economists said. With housing on the mend, the mood of the consumer will improve, helping set the U.S. economy back on track.
"The increase in the conforming loan limit should have a positive impact on the housing market, and overall I would say the package is large enough that it should have a notable impact on GDP growth," said Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist, Barclays Capital in New York.
The downside is that these measures help the most credit-worthy borrowers and not those already in trouble.
TL : Once must be mindful that short-term fixes often lead to long-term problems.
This word of wisdom is adopted from reknown world class stock market guru - Irving Fisher
联储局降息预期 推动股市收高
29 January 2008 1014hrs
美国股市全面上涨。道琼斯工商指数起176.72，或1.45%，闭市报12383.89。纳斯达克指数起23.71，或1.02%，闭市报2349.91。标准普尔500指数上升23.71，或1.76%，闭市报1353.97。
虽然12月份预售屋销售数据下跌到13年来的新低，暗示美国经济可能陷入萧条，但这反而加强了市场对联邦储备局这个星期三可能再度大幅降息的预期。有分析师就指出：许多投资者现在普遍认为，联储局应该会降息50个基点，这带动了市场的交投气氛，尤其是金融类股的表现，因为金融机构将从降息中直接受益。在纽约商品交易所，3月份原油期货价格，起28美分，闭市报每桶90.99美元。
Locked in profit on Mahsing @ 1.85 for 15 lots . Long holdays approaching, I dont think KLSE will climb further up b4 cny , mkt volume is thin , sentiment is weak , confidence is not there ! 0.5 cut is well expected , what if come out with 0.25 cut ? holland ? ha ha..
Play safe .. take profit first !
TL : USA REAL GDP DATA FOR 4Q2007 SCHEDULE TO RELEASE ON 30 JAN 2008. THIS DATA IS IMPORTANT DATA AMONG ALL OTHERS ECONOMIC DATA SCHEDULE RELEASE THIS WEEK. PLEASE STAY TUNE.
WHAT IS GDP " Primarily reflected contributions from
exports, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, nonresidential structures, federal government spending, equipment and software, and state and local government spending.
THE MARKET CONSENSUS IS NOT GOOD. SLUMP BY HALF FROM 3Q 2007 4.90%.
Hope that the coming 25 or 50 basis points injection ( lethal injection ) by Mr FED enough to weather this storm.
another 5 lots of mahsing done @ 1.85 ^V^ Take profit first n play safe.
See, massive selling by the underwriters has resulted DPS share price dropped >35% since right issue. Anyone catch the falling knife?
Sam...
Lost a bit on Mahsing as I was greedy. Jumped into frying pan after it fell from 2.30. Also jumped out today since you jumped out.
Ben...
I am also stuck with some dps at 0.57... what do you reckon ? Keep in safe ?
have made loss around 45%. Since sell now can only get back 2k+, might as well keep in safe lah because DPS is looking financially healthy and won't go bankrupt or delisted.
Dear Ben,
Why are the DPS underwriters selling DPS? Is the right issue undersubscribed?
i catch the falling knife 30 lots at 0.43.. I sold at 0.34.. crying loud now.
myke888 , lose mahsing ? how come ? my cost is around 1.70+ , how come u lose ? anyway..it doesnt matter , i am still keeping 1/2 of it after some profit taking today.
DPS ? keep lolll ..if u reluctant to sell. d problem now is "confidence " , after d announcement of Fed cut , i will sell on strength for profit taking if there any ! SSEX is crashing.. sentiment getting very bad , mkt confidence is down to d drain, couple with d approaching holidays, i don t see any good sign b4 CNY.
As i said, when time to retreat ! retreat ! some sour mails saying uncle sam get his fingers burnt during recent slump..ha ha ha..really ?
FYI, how to get my fingers burnt with realised profit of > 558K ? teach u one simple way to calculate my latest P/L , use my latest portfolio as per attached , compare it with current price, calculate yrself how much I made/lose , take d nett gain/lose minus out my realised profit of 558K , u can see whether mine is golden finger or burnt finger !? ha ha..jgn marah yah ?
Btw, dont worry, I will definitely show u my latest portfolio as at 29 Feb 08, U will soon understand better what is beauty of FA ^V^
be there ok ?
Guys, d problem now is not d matter of fundamental or unsound stocks, as i said , during bear mkt, regardless what stock it is , be it FA or non FA, they will follow d slide in short n mid term, d different is NON FA stocks will slump deeper than FA stocks ! unless u tell me u aim for long term play n dont mind to lose out some opportunity cost ^V^
We cant predict d direction of d market but we can safeguard or protect our capital n realised profit by adopting risk control .
Dont go againts d mkt , noone can beat d market force , sail with it ^V^
Seems like steel themeplay is coming back.
Kinstel, SSTEEL, MASTEEL all went up. Laggard Onatel and Liondiv. Will these 2 counters catching up?
Too bad I have cut loss on onatel.
Sam...
Actually overall Mahsing I still make a bit. Greed got the better of me when price fell from 2.30 to 2.00, I jumped back in ...
Learnt a lesson though ...next time, wait for the volume gets thinner.
I trully learnt a lot from you guys ... TL, Ben and especially Sam. Not only on investing... FS also included !
What a Blog... Where to find ? Ha ha ha
cut loss on most counters like oilcorp, dps, liondiv, mkt really no good....
Sifu Sam,
Thanks a lot for your guidance! It definitely helps a lot. Two questions though,
1 - what method do you use to find the future EPS for forward PE? If im not mistaken, there are many types, eg. project earning with discount, estimate the EPS like Price/Quarter EPS*4, use consensus estimate etc..... and also do you stick to one method or just flexible?
2 - how do you calculate EPS growth rate (eg. Q4 2008 VS Q4 2007) if it involves negative or zero value in one of the quarters? or do you just ignore it?
again. thanks for your advices as i really learn a lot from you and samgang.
\o/
TL : YUM SENGGGGGGGGGGGGG ( 1 )
TL : YUM SENGGGGGGGGGGG ( 2 )
TL : YUM SENGGGGGGGG ( 3 )
TL : 3 TOAST FOR DEAD CAT REBOUNCE ! ( SEE END OF BOTTOM MESSAGE )
January 29, 2008 -- Updated 1550 GMT (2350 HKT)
World markets buoyed by expected rates cut. LONDON, England (AP) -- European and most Asian stock markets rebounded Tuesday as investors cheered an overnight rally on Wall Street and snapped up beaten down shares on expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut later this week.
But growing speculation that the Federal Reserve will lower a key rate by a quarter point, instead of the more aggressive half-point, kept gains in check.
European shares rose in early trading and U.S. stock index futures were mixed.
In the first hour of trading, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 21.55, or 0.17 percent, to 12,405.44.
Broader indexes also moved higher. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 3.12, or 0.23 percent, to 1,357.08, and the Nasdaq composite slipped 0.66, or 0.03 percent, to 2,349.25.
The U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index grew 1.5 percent to 5,875.40, while Germany's DAX gained 1.6 percent to 6.924.31. The French CAC rose 2 percent to 4,943.18.
"The FTSE rebounded this morning after yesterday's losses, led by the mining sector which is adding 20 points to the index on the back of record precious metals prices," said Nathan Miller, a trader at CMC Markets in London.
In Asia, Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 index rose 2.9 percent at 13,478.86 while Hong Kong's blue-chip Hang Seng Index gained 1 percent to 24,291.8 after earlier rising as much as 2.8 percent.
The markets -- Asia's two biggest -- tumbled at least 4 percent Monday on persistent fears the U.S. economy was entering a recession.
Monday's drop gave investors a chance to re-enter the market, said Francis Lun, a general manager at Fulbright Securities in Hong Kong.
In China, the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.9 percent after tumbling 7.2 percent Monday. Stocks in South Korea, Thailand and the Philippines also rose.
Australia's benchmark index slid 2.5 percent as traders bet on a smaller-than-hoped-for rate cut when the Fed's policy planners meet Tuesday and Wednesday.
Last week, the Fed slashed its key interest rate by three-quarters of a point to 3.5 percent after a plunge in Asian and European markets, which have since bounced back somewhat.
The Fed was likely to cut rates a quarter point "given the deep cut last time and that there are some signs of stabilization in the market," said Malcolm Wood, Asia-Pacific equities strategist at Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong.
That would likely disappoint Asian markets where investors banked on a bigger cut, and could trigger more selloffs later in the week, he said.
Global markets have been in turmoil this month as investors reacted to a string of bad economic news out of the United States. Asian markets are especially sensitive as their economies are heavily reliant on American consumers buying their exports.
The U.S. economy has been battered by a housing slump and credit crunch triggered by a spike in defaults on risky mortgages that has led to billions of dollars of bad assets at major American and European banks.
Sentiment got a lift from Wall Street's gain on Monday, when investors in the U.S. took a dismal new home sales report as a sign the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 176.72, or 1.45 percent, on Monday to 12,383.89, while the Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 23.36, or 1.76 percent, to 1,353.97.
President Bush tried to calm the markets in his last State of the Union address Monday, stressing the government's determination to reinvigorate the moribund economy with tax rebates.
Bush urged lawmakers to approve a $150 billion (€102 billion) plan in tax relief for families and incentives for businesses to invest in new plants and equipment. He said the American economy was robust, but warned of a rocky road ahead in the short-term.
TL : IT WILL DROP DEAD THE NEXT SECOND WHEN U HAVE NO IDEA AT ALL !
TL : A THUMBS UP SIFU SAM. ONE STEP BACK TO CONSERVE ENERGY FOR 3 STEP AHEAD ! WHEN HE BACK, IT WILL MUCH MORE LETHAL THAN BEFORE.
TL : WILL STICK WITH U THRU THICK AND THIN.
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