^V^
Read d below , u can see how good they r n how " accurate " TA is ! >
From so called TA expert nexttrade :-
1)
Thursday, July 09, 2009
Some unpleasant news
Readers of this blog are aware that I am cautiously optimistic about the outlook of the stock market & the economy. My take is that the economy has seen the worst & we may see some growth in later part of the year or early part of next year. The stock market- being a barometer of the economy- should recover earlier and that's what we saw in the past 3-4 months. The current correction is taking place in an over-bought market and is deemed healthy.
However, there are signs that the recovery may be running into trouble. The market was taken by surprise in early July when the US' unemployment rate jumped to a 26-year high of 9.5 per cent, with another 467,000 people losing their jobs in June. Most economists now believe it will top 10 per cent before the end of the year. Some 14.7 million people are now looking for work in US.
Firstly, we shall look at the charts of crude oil prices (WTIC) & freight rates (BDI). Increased economic activities & trades will drive up BDI & WTIC. We can see that BDI started to recover in early January while WTIC recovered in early March. These were immediately followed by a recovery in DJIA in the middle of March. Now, the picture is getting cloudier- BDI has broken below its 20-day SMA & WTIC has just broken below its 50-day SMA. Are we seeing a mild slowdown or something worse?
Chart 1 : DJIA, WTIC & BDI- 18 months to July 2009 (Source: Stockcharts.com & Investment Tools)
The second thing that we must look out for is the movement of the 10-year Treasury yield (TNX). If the economy is about to pick up & is flushed with liquidity, the bond market will signal its concern about a potential rise in inflation rate by selling down Treasury bond which automatically pushed up the yield. However, bond traders will do the reverse once the economy recovery shows sign of weakening. We can see both actions in end 2002 & middle of 2003, where the TNX crossed above the 10-month SMA & then dropped below the same line (the yellow & red vertical lines). You will note that in May this year, TNX crossed above the 10-month SMA and went as high as 4%. It is now dropping back very sharply & would likely to test the 10-month SMA line at 3.0-3.1% soon. It has already broken below the strong horizontal support area of around 3.5%.
Chart 2: S&P500 & TNX- 10 years to July 2009 (Source: The Technical Take)
From this article, you may have a better understanding of the bearish factors affecting the markets today. I have appended below the links to a few articles that take a rather grim view of the current economic situation. They are:
1. 'The crisis is morphing again', by PIMCO's Mohamed El-Erian (from FT Alphaville)
2. 'The worst is yet to come', by IMF chief (from Malaysian Insider)
3. 'Expect new equity low in 2nd Half', by Societe Generale's Albert Edwards (from Zero Hedge)
4. 'We're Headed Right Back To The 1930s' by Paul Krugman (from Clusterstock)
5. Second Stimulus to be considered, from US presidential adviser Laura Tyson (from Bloomberg)
Posted by Alex Lu at 7/09/2009 11:55:00 AM
Second :-
From "Fun " Manager , Darlie A/L Backhand Seng :-
Its been more than a week since I have posted that equity markets in general looked tired. Over the past few trading days basically reinforced my views. Markets have had a brilliant run for most of the first half of 2009. Generally, to sustain a bullish run for more than two months is difficult. In a normal market, you should be thankful to get two phases of bull run in a year, with each not lasting more than 2 months. Hence one should be thankful already. To be always 100% invested in markets is to make bloody sure that you want to be caught in a downtrend. Unless you are a big long term investors of the buy and hold mentality, you should find time to reduce your equity exposure every now and then, especially when it is so plain to read well.
Markets like Malaysia is mainly a trend and momentum market, thus rewarding those who trade. Its like a house that throws a party every 6 months, why show up when no one is around? Take your trading profits and go for a holiday. Get back in when conditions are better. I do think the last quarter and the first quarter next year could shape to be good markets for equity. Till then, take a break.
Posted by Darlie A/L Backhand Seng at 8:41 AM 8 July 2009
***
From Asiachart.com :-
Thks 4 showing us another example on how “good” TA is ..see guys ? asiachart said on 12 July 09 that “ D dow failed a key support at 8250 giving 2 the probability that d bull trend has run since march has ended . ha ha…Dow closed @ 8600 today , wow..y so much different one ?
Really feel sorry 4 those who 4low asiachart.com 2 short future last week, can someone calculate 4 me how much they lose ? from 1,060 to now 1,120 ? how much ?
Is TA works ? woww Asiachart ! u r great !
Wowww... Mkt shot up > 50 points after their posting , what 's up ? DOW broke its mid term MAV50days of 8464, so how now ? confirmed bull ?
Then what about yr previous comment ? r u saying they dont work at all ?
Take another look at d attached picture, RM 3,800 for TA course ? come on kid , if they r that good , y they so desperate to sell it 2 u @ RM 3,800 ? it is just like con man telling u " hello mr saw lo, I hv one god numbers , u pay me RM3,800 , i sell it 2 to , u will definitely strike come this saturday @ 4 D magnum !
Ha ha u believe them ? U dont need 2 believe me , just use yr brain n think about it ^V^
Once again ! can someone tell me Is TA works ?
Some kids said " when mkt up , ah sam sell , when mkt down, ah sam hold 4 long term , like that sure win lah "... ha ha dudes, that shld be d way mah !..that's y I make profit most of d times , bukan ?
Still think u can catch tgoffwa @0.57 ? no volume means sure down meh ? let me put some money in yr pocket here , when u buy warrant, besides its in/out money /due date...d most important is FA of its mom not warrant himself ! if mom doesnt move up, how can d son 4low ? got it kids ? ^_-
ha ha i saw someone got hurt so much in other blog..take it ezi..take it ezi ! never too late to know u r still a kid ^_-
59 comments:
TA is just for those act pro d ppl use only.Untill now i still cannot see any statement of TA, dunno they earn or lose $.
Sifu, how do you think about recently d Pantech and RCE? hold till ead of year ah ?
2 fevernova , as it can be seen, I am still holding on 2 my rce @0.58..hold till 1stqtr of 2010 or profit of 30 to 40% which ever is higher .
Look at d ren her today...i bil liaooo.... if u hv zero bal..buy on dip, if u still hv holding like me then hold it 4 further rise lol ^V^
hi uncle sam, MA50 is derived from TA or FA? shud be TA right? u said Dow breaks MA50, so are you using TA here?? btw, Dow is now facing resistant at MA200...which is 8750-8800 pts.
finally, i am a TA supporter....not supporter of watever seng or darlie...i dunno them...
I still hold this RCE and Pantech as well ~
Amyway~ what is yr top 2 criteria when choosing a good stock ?
LOW PE and good profit company (high ROE) ?
Thanks for your advise ~ cheers
2 kaichiew, yes mav is TA..i mentioned there mav50 doesnt mean I am using TA , this mav50 was brought up by nexttrade in his posting , that's y i blog it up here^_- he said dow need 2 break mav50 @8464 first , that's y i am asking him, dow is now way above mav50 8464, is it confirmed bull ? if yes..then y he called 2 sell last thursday? these show TA is never work !
2 fevernova , PE , ROE n gearing r important, d most important is "future earning ". if its future earning koyak..all d above r useless.
ha ha i saw someone got hurt so much in other blog..take it ezi..take it ezi ! never too late to know u r still a kid ^_-
Sam,
Why certain warrant does not fetch any premium even though she still has the "time" factor b4 expiry, and her mom's FA is ok (annualised pe=7)???
Thanks for your advice.
halo uncle sam...actually i dint follow nextrade's view...i just like to read his blog which is just like urs...
i like to listen and gather for new information tat's why i have been following ur blog...
the reason i showed up here is bcos i am a TA supporter..of cos it is againts ur view tat TA is useless....
instead of holding and waiting for the stocks tat rarely move...why dont use TA to pick stocks tat have better rewards than risk??
of cos i admire ur guts feeling and using FA in picking stocks and it is proven bcos u have thousands of followers...cheers..
2 kaichiew, yes ! support nobody but their proven track records , yr >
" instead of holding and waiting for the stocks tat rarely move...why dont use TA to pick stocks tat have better rewards than risk??"
Ha ha u must be kidding ? TA can time d entry ? d posting that posted by alex has said it all ..TA can tell ? k..since u r a TA trader , k..tell me which stock is gonna 2 jump up 2molo ? can u ?
FYI, d more u use TA, d higher risk u r going to bear !
Read my previouis postings , started from backhand seng , pricechart, alex , chinyk up 2 d latest maxforce , all of them badly burnt by using TA method , check it yrself..k ?
Anyway, I wont force u 2 4low me , end of d day , u r d one whose need 2 answer 4 yr trades not me ^_-
2 Brian , that's y u hardly found any warrant pick from me except ijmwb, ytlwb n tgoffwa.
If they r out of money , y go 4 warrant ? y not u go 4 its mom ? as simple as that ^_^
Sifu Sam
I have sold off all my AXIATA@2.94. Awaiting your next call with full anxiety.
Sam...
I have been following your postings for almost more than 2 years now. You have unselfishly and painstakingly given a lot of "free lessons" to all on the applications of FA in our investments. In short.. you have taught us how to invest our hard earned money. Besides putting some "Street Money" into our pockets with your tips, I reckon you have taught us that FA is all about investing and not gambling.
I am in the opinion that if TA works in which it never does as mentioned in CNBC... "A female pig can also climb up a tree". Cheers to all !
hi uncle sam...may i know the link of the blog of so-called backhand seng or darlie?? quite curious to read their blog too...haha
btw...from wat i hav learned from candlestick, UEMLAND today is showing a doji..meaning reversal signal....lets see if its going south and if it does..the support of 1.28 to 1.32 can hold or not..
TA suggest us to buy at support and sell at resistance or reversal signal.
TA shows that 1.28 to 1.32 is the immediate support...
put so many TAs here...dont angry yah....just try try only....
Sifu Sam,
Wish to ask that if TGOFFS execute right issue or bonus issue...are there any impact or affect to its warrant since the mom share price will definitely drop after the issuance.
2 Kaichiew,
Do u know what is d difference btwn FA n TA ? well..let me show u now..
click d below >
http://samgang.blogspot.com/2009_02_01_archive.html
FA bought UEMland @ 0.56 last Feb 09 , now only TA talked about uemland @ 1.38 !?? see d risk here ? same goes to Resorts, FA called 2 buy @ 1.93, now only TA talked about TP of 3.20 !
Do I need 2 explain more ?
2 AWU, yes it does effect its eps after dilution , but... this is definitely not a obstacle 4 its warrat 2 fly further, just like ytlpwrwb , after d conversion of its warrants , she keeps rising 2 current level of 0.98.
About backhand seng n his son darlie seng, everybody know who r they , needless 2 give them any free publicity here ^_-
2 Penang property showroom , congrats bro ^V^
FYI, I didnt make any $$ from axiata , cos I hv swap it 2 resorts @ 1.93, made some from resorts ha ha.
yah..b4 i forget , DOW up another 95 points 2day, far above 8464 liaoo..how now ? confirmed bull ? sailang all ?
2 kaichiew, Yr view pls !?
I am sure TA bugger will come with all d grand mom stories by saying " not yet, need 2 get more indicators inorder 2 confirm that ! or may be need 2 wait 4 dow 2 break its mav200 then only can tell ! ha ha..like that arh ? dont u think it is too high n too risky 2 buy in after dow break its mav200!??
bukan ? ^_- TA !? ha ha... it is 無知*Ignorance" ppl stuffs !
One more thing , Y FA can tell there was a buy 4 uemland @ 0.56 ? y cant TA tell ? TA can only tell after > 1.32 , dont u think it is far too risky liaooo ? think a little dude ^_-
hi uncle sam..i have traded uemland since the price of 0.735, and my total profit realized until yesterday (sold 4th time) is abt 110% using TA as swing trading...i used candlestick method to trade..
i am not a TA pro..just lucky
i recommend 1 more TA blog..
www.asiachart.com
another 'pro' TA blog
as for my view for DOWs, its facing 8800 horizontal resistant as well as MA200 resistant too..
again..just my 2 cents..as a TA supporters
I wouldn't spend 3800 attending such courses. I would rather spend RM 3800 to have inter courses! lolx..
Anyway, Sifu, just want to ask you how to get the average PE for certain sectors?
Bro. ZHULIAN worth to buy at current level ? price break its record high last few days.
kai chew..seem you still have less experience in shares market..maybe not long enough..maybe you can try to buy ur counter by TA..you might turn up to be me last time..
TA call changes everytime..They can send you buy call when they think not right then ask for sell call..After sell call, many time market will up again..
We buy shares must buy based on its fundamental,FA..solid stock with good future earning..As long as we buy at low price and good FA company stock, although market going south..but if we got holding power..sooner or later it will go up 1..Dont affect by TA call..
But, si fu got said..you knw FA doest not mean you knw how to apply..No harm you go n try ur TA, you will knw your lesson..
Happy investing ya..
2 Kaichiew,
Thks 4 showing us another example on how “good” TA is( see d latest attachment )..see guys ? asiachart said on 12 July 09 that “ D dow failed a key support at 8250 giving 2 the probability that d bull trend has run since march has ended . ha ha…Dow closed @ 8600 today , wow..y so much different one ?
2 kaichiew again, 110% gain from uemland ? really ? sorry bro..all these r backhand call, ah kow or ah soh can even come 2 me n say” sam, I hv made 1 mil from uemland tru TA, can we believe him ?
U posted this morning that uemland is heading south due 2 yr doji showing reversal signal..ha ha..sorry 2 say, uemland up 5 cts today, doji giving u false alarm again ??
k..give u another chance 2 cover yr face, what next after this ? yr call kaichiew ^V^
Well said audre :-
(
Aundre wu said...
kai chew..seem you still have less experience in shares market..maybe not long enough..maybe you can try to buy ur counter by TA..you might turn up to be me last time..
TA call changes everytime..They can send you buy call when they think not right then ask for sell call..After sell call, many time market will up again..
)
TA is like playing big small with late uncle lim , its call change from time 2 time , good example from asiachart.com ( see d attachment). really thanks kaichiew 4 giving us such good example of how holland TA can be !
Kam siah very much ^V^
2 bro Kaichiew , since u cant show us yr forehand call on uemland..k..give u another chance , create yr own blog , show us yr forehand calls thru TA , prove 2 us ! can arh ?
If cannot , then sorry 2 say u r just like those Tai chek kong TA losers that been shamed by FA since day one of this blog ^_-
Really feel sorry 4 those who 4low asiachart.com 2 short future last week, can someone calculate 4 me how much they lose ? from 1,060 to now 1,120 ? how much ?
agree with andrewu...
hi Sam, allow me to write somthing here...what i feel is {FA = investing/ TA = "GAMBLING"} lot of us know that, but just chinese "good" culture, no gamble no "song"...haha
i had start on buying share since 10 years back...earn nothing, until reading ur blog & start invest my "bloody' hard earn$ base on FA method...actually i'm not so pandai as u, oso base on ur call most of time. :)
But atlease now i will find out my target share whether is making profit or losing $... before i throw in $ - 活到老学到老 mah...somemore i'm still young...
anyway, would like to thanks you and all the Senior in ur blog, really learn lot from ur...Cheers.
cmp
Wowww...show track records liaoooo..ermm...not bad not bad..from what I found , most of yr picks r low PE n FA ! how do we know that u r not using FA 4 all these trades ? it never tell that u r using TA 4 all these calls ! bukan ? further more , some of d stocks in yr list r my call oso, how do we know u r not stealing my FA method 4 yr picks ? n oso..from d gain u made from uemland..where got 110% returns ? talk is free dude ^_-
u cant blame us kaichiew..cos based on yr sell call on uemland this morning, we hv reasons 2 believe yr TA doesnt work at all...k.. 2 clear all these doubt , create yr own blog , give us yr forehand call , we monitor from here , let c how good TA can be !? can arh ?
If still cannot, then sorry lol...
Yah b4 i 4get, UEMland up today..what did yr doji said ? turn sell 2 buy now ? can comment abit ar ?
Yah..one offer 2 u kiachiew, ..if u think it is very troublesome 2 create a blog 4 yrself..my suggestion , u can tumpang my blog here , tell us what stock 2 go in , tell us y u call 2 buy based on TA , boleh ?
If like that oso cannot..then u cant blame ppl laughing at u liaoo... ^_^
think about it bro ^_-
2 all, FA is more towards mid n long term, what if u wanna 2 do short term swing trades ? use TA ? ha ha 4get it bro !... definitely not TA but CSA.
What is CSA ?
CSA means common sense analysis ^_-
Use volume to judge its movement , how ?
Just show u a little bit on CSA,
If stock A staying @ low 4 quite sometime , n suddenly volume jumped 2 double or triple , what is this indication ?
2 indications , first... d insider got good news in hand ( project or good earning results )
Second ( bad news , such as bad earning results or change of gov policy )
So what shld we do ? simple..check its past earning records , if its track earning records r good , chances 4 her to fly is greater . n vice versa.
2) if stock B Jumped from 0.50 to 0.70 with huge vol n d news still havent announce yet , how ? jump in ?
D approach is :
Wait till T+4 , if she still can hold @ 0.70 after T+4 with heavy volume traded, she stand a good chance 2 rose further.
If, she cant hold @ 0.70 n slide all d way down 2 0.50 with heavy volume traded , this show big sharks r selling their stake 2 d buyers, then u shld avoid n stand aside.
What if she came down from 0.70 to 0.50 with little tiny vol ? this show that d big buggers r still holding at high , then u shld accumulate or buy in @ 0.50.
Take note: all d above must be back up by solid FA , if d said stock is running at huge losses, any vol increase is lead 2 sign of SELL !
Try it yrself, d accuracy rate is about 70 to 80%.
All these r common sense , jz like telling u yr papa is JANTAN !
One good example.TGoffwa... when she drop , u dont c any big vol traded , this show that big buggers r still holding n reluctant 2 sell it.
Ezi ? ha ha..take it ezi , take it ezi ^_^
waoh, the market is so volatile this few days.. i bought 10lots rcecap at 58cents
內行人分析臥屍姿勢
不排除被推下樓
獨家報導
（吉隆坡17日訊）“以死者趙明福的臥屍姿勢，被人推下樓的可能性很大！”！”
根據死者臥屍的照片顯示，多名資深查案官和從事殯儀業者受詢時皆認為，死者被推下樓的可能性很大。
他們異口同聲指出，根據他們的經驗，若要從死者臥屍圖，包括其死狀和姿勢來分析，死者極可能被推下樓。
“如果是跳樓自殺，不會有如此的臥屍姿勢。”
針對死者長褲靠近屁股處破裂露出內褲的情況，多名查案官說，如果死者是從很高的樓層墜下，不管是被人推或跳樓自殺，都有這個可能性。
現場調查很重要
不過，他們指出，單看照片而作出分析，不能作準，因為要鑑定死者是否被人推下樓，現場觀察和調查是非常重要的。
他們說，警方調查墜樓案，首先是查看死者身上是否有其他傷痕和證據，尤其是其指甲，因若是遭人推下樓，一定會作出反抗和發生拉扯。
“接著是檢查鞋子，包括墜樓后，是否還穿著鞋子等，這些線索都有助調查。
“接下來是衣服的狀態、手腳姿勢和頭部受毀情況，這些細節全都不能忽略。
“法醫的解剖報告，是最快和最有力的證據，可鑑定死者到底是自殺或遭謀殺。”
另一方面，一名不願透露名字的殯儀業者說，從事該行這么多年，見過無數次的跳樓自殺案死者，但卻從未見過一個跳樓自殺案的死者，是像趙明福般死狀。
“跳樓自殺死者是頭部向下或向上，沒有像他（明福）這樣橫躺的，如果說他是跳樓自殺，似乎有點不尋常。”
不能白死、不应白死
然而，赵明福毕竟不能白死，也不应白死，民众要让这个已牺牲了的性命有价值，就应串联成一股锐不可当的舆论力量与民间压力，促成执法机关不得不按照国际执法标准作业，不得不尊重人权、以及成为免于政治操控、有实质意义的执法机关。
'Saya akan besarkan anak kami'
Jul 17, 09 7:09pm
Manusia hanya merancang, Tuhan yang menentukan. Jodoh pertemuan dan ajal maut semuanya di tangan Tuhan.
Itulah hakikat pahit yang perlu ditelan oleh Soh Sher Wei, 28, bakal isteri Teoh Beng Hock yang mati secara tragis semalam.
Pasangan itu merancang mendaftarkan perkahwinan mereka hari ini sebelum melangsungkan perkahwinan mereka pada Oktober.
Teoh, 30, setiausaha politik kepada Ean Yong Hian Wah, exco pembangunan kampung baru Selangor, ditemui mati di tingkat lima Plaza Masalam di Shah Alam selepas disoal siasat Suruhanjaya Pencegahan Rasuah Malaysia (SPRM).
Bagaimanapun Soh (foto, baju putih) masih beruntung kerana zuriat mereka berdua masih ada dan bertekad akan melahirkannya, kini berusia dua bulan, lapor laman web China Press hari ini.
Bercakap kepada akhbar itu pagi ini di hospital Kelang - tempat bedah siasat mayat Teoh dijalankan - guru di Semenyih itu berkata tunangnya mengetahui kehamilannya.
Menurut akhbar yang sama, beberapa teman Teoh sukar menerima kemungkinan mendiang membunuh diri kerana, pada pagi Rabu, bekas wartawan itu menghubungi mereka dan mengundang ke majlis persandingannya.
Panggilan itu dibuat beberapa jam sebelum diminta hadir di pejabat SPRM kira-kira 6 petang bagi memberi keterangan sebagai saksi siasatan kes salah guna wang peruntukan DUN -
Teoh, yang berasal dari Alor Gajah, Melaka, bertanya kepada rakan-rakan yang dihubunginya sama ada mereka akan memeriahkan saat-saat manis beliau mengakhiri zaman bujangnya.
Seorang rakannya, yang tidak sempat menjawab panggilan tersebut, dilaporkan berasa kesal atas kesempatan terakhir itu. Rakan itu juga sukar menerima kemungkinan pemuda ini mati membunuh diri.
Sementara itu laman web akhbar Guang Ming Daily hari ini pula melaporkan ibunya Chong Saw Huay, 56, menangis tidak henti-henti sejak menerima berita tragis itu petang semalam.
Setiap kali melihat gambar anaknya, yang terbaring kaku, di dada akhbar, ibunya dilaporkan akan menangis sementara menunggu mayatnya dibawa pulang ke pangkuannya.
Mayat mendiang dijangkan akan disemadikan di Alor Gajah, 11 pagi Isnin ini.
Wanita itu semalam dilaporkan pengsan sewaktu menerima panggilan telefon daripada seorang pembantu exco kanan Selangor, Teresa Kok.
Bercakap kepada akhbar itu di rumahnya hari ini, Chong berkata anaknya itu bersama Soh, berasal dari Batu Pahat, sepatutnya pulang ke Alor Gajah untuk menguruskan majlis perkahwinan mereka yang dirancang 3 Oktober ini - bersempena Pesta Tanglung.
Pasangan juga merancang akan mencuba pakaian pengantin hari ini.
Dewan untuk melangsungkan majlis tersebut dan makanan telah ditempah, Chong dilaporkan berkata lagi.
Dalam perkembangan berkaitan, Guang Ming Daily juga melaporkan bapa mendiang Teoh Liang Fai, 61, sanggup menerima anak yang bakal dilahirkan Soh walaupun hanya mengetahui kehamilan itu hari ini.
Hamil sebelum perkahwinan "perkara biasa, tolong jangan pandang serong," pemandu teksi itu dipetik berkata.
Beliau juga bersedia meletakkan nama Soh sebagai "isteri" di iklan belasungkawa di akhbar.
Aiyo TA vs FA again.
Always got young cikus / newbie in the market keen to follow the shortest/easiet way to make money. Follow TA burn money-not carefull go bankcrupt. Follow FA - filthy rich in 3-5years. Choose wisely young men and women out there.
bro sam,
hahaha ta vs fa yet again
neoguga(uai) u very funny inter courses hehehe
guys bro sam got a much better method on what & when to buy/sell based on FA, theme plays & influence. many times he have had written on how to use them and when to time entry/exit.
in case you need them or refresh read all his blog histories & focus on his teachings. they are all there.
g'luck 2u n 888
Uncle Sam,
Would like to ask you or any sifu about property investment.
Regalia @ Sultan Ismail
Launch by Mayland group
website: www.maylandregalia.com.my
Worth to invest kah?
Kai Chiew, i can borrow my blog Chat Box for you for your call if you think write comment is tedious for you. Ha ha ha.
By d most Pessimistic economist DR. NOURIEL ROUBINI :-
“It has been widely reported today that I have stated that the recession will be over “this year” and that I have “improved” my economic outlook. Despite those reports - however – my views expressed today are no different than the views I have expressed previously. If anything my views were taken out of context.
“I have said on numerous occasions that the recession would last roughly 24 months. Therefore, we are 19 months into that recession. If as I predicted the recession is over by year end, it will have lasted 24 months with a recovery only beginning in 2010. Simply put I am not forecasting economic growth before year's end.
“Indeed, last year I argued that this will be a long and deep and protracted U-shaped recession that would last 24 months. Meanwhile, the consensus argued that this would be a short and shallow V-shaped 8 months long recession (like those in 1990-91 and 2001). That debate is over today as we are in the 19th month of a severe recession; so the V is out of the window and we are in a deep U-shaped recession. If that recession were to be over by year end – as I have consistently predicted – it would have lasted 24 months and thus been three times longer than the previous two and five times deeper – in terms of cumulative GDP contraction – than the previous two. So, there is nothing new in my remarks today about the recession being over at the end of this year.
***
Shares mkt always react 6 to 9 months ahead of real economy, hence,share mkt shld be heading north from now till 1st qtr of 2010 ^_-
Crude oil rose 1.35 yesterday , we will be seeing crude oil touching USD 75 to 80 by end of this year , if u still hv ONG stocks in hand, my advice "HOLD" !
2 those who bot in rcecap @ 0.56+ , congrats bro... let fly n sink 2gether.
n 4 those citi holders , making big big $$$$$ from her is only matter of time.
I hv total 5 lots in hand , nett cost ard 1.00+- ( after various gain from her in year of 2008 ), i will show u what is " opportunity only come once in a life time ).
Until now , there is still no reply from TA buggers on " is it confirmed bull after DOW break its mav50 of 8464 ? "...y no reply ? do u want 2 wait till dow break 9000 2 confirm that ? like that gua pun boleh lah ^_^
Mark it down dudes ! I am damn confident that I could make another 100K by 1st qtr of 2010. doubt ? wait n c ^_-
4got 2 tell y i am so optimistic on citi in long term>>
Citi Unveils Surprise Profit
Citigroup (C Quote) on Friday reported a surprise second-quarter profit, but sustainability of those results at the troubled bank is still very much in doubt.
Citi said it made $4.27 billion, or 49 cents a share, for the three months ending June 30. But the results were aided in large part by an $11.1 billion pre-tax, or $6.7 billion after-tax, gain associated with the joint venture it completed in June to combine its Smith Barney wealth management unit with Morgan Stanley's (MS Quote) brokerage operations. Citi said total revenue from continuing operations rose 71% to $29.9 billion.
Analysts, according to Thomson Reuters, expected the big financial firm to post a loss of 37 cents a share in the quarter. In the year-earlier quarter, Citi posted a loss of $2.49 billion, or 55 cents a share.
"For the past several quarters we've had a plan for Citigroup," CEO Vikram Pandit said on a conference call with analysts. "A plan to address costs, assets, headcount, risk and capital. Each quarter we have been successfully executing against this plan and you've seen the results."
Still, Citi's profit came on the back of the Smith Barney deal. Without it, Citi lost $2.4 billion in the quarter, executives said on a conference call. And the company's "most significant challenge" remains its consumer credit businesses, Pandit said.
The company said that total credit costs increased roughly 80% to $12.4 billion. Citi added $3.9 billion to loan loss reserves, bringing the total allowance for loan losses to 5.6% of total loans.
David Trone, an analyst at Fox Pitt Kelton Cochran Caronia Waller said that while early signs of consumer losses could be nearing a peak, the "revenue franchise has clearly been impaired, under the firestorm of criticism/pressure from politicians and journalists, which has driven away top talent and distracted those that remain," he writes in a note.
More on C The Real Story: Summer Reading SpecialStock Wrap: The Real Story, July 17Financial Stock Winners and Losers: CitigroupStock Search: GE and Citigroup Lead the WayCramer: It Wasn't About the EarningsStock Search: Citigroup, GE, Bank of AmericaAgainst the Grain: Sell Citigroup!Oil Update: Crude Pushing Above $63They Just Don't Get IBM!Welfare Babies Cry and Spin Market Activity Citigroup Incorporated| C DOWNGoldman Sachs Group Incorporated| GS UPThe company, which has $1.85 trillion in assets, has received a total of $45 billion in federal bailout funds. It is set to complete an exchange offer next week that would make the U.S. government a 34% stakeholder in the company. It also received some $300 billion more in guarantees on risky assets. Other companies, including JPMorgan Chase (JPM Quote), Goldman Sachs (GS Quote), Morgan Stanley and US Bancorp (USB Quote), in the second quarter repaid government investments made through the Troubled Asset Relief Program.
Under pressure from regulators, Citi separated its core businesses from non-core units and troubled assets into a so-called good bank, Citicorp, and bad bank, Citi Holdings. The company has been working to pare down its Citi Holdings assets, but continues to be weighed by consumer loan losses and pressure from regulators about the pace of changes. Pandit reportedly has drawn particularly intense fire from FDIC Chairwoman Sheila Bair.
The second quarter is the first in which Citi broke out financial results for Citicorp and Citi Holdings.
Citicorp, which includes regional consumer banking and institutional clients businesses, made $3.05 billion, an 11% decrease compared to the year-earlier period results. The drop was driven by a 78% decline in profit from its regional consumer banking operations. Revenue decreased 11% to $14.9 billion. Citi blamed the decrease on the impact of foreign exchange, credit losses in its North American card securitization trusts and lower overall volume.
Hi Sam,
I'm interested in buying your 2003 accord and want to know how much you selling it for?
sifu,
i think kiachiew is adapt TA on FA stock,
isn't it?
when low PE earning company stock price at high, wait.
when low PE earning company stock price at low, buy.
he/she tot it's TA.
but still FA.
his/her TA is base on FA, right?
thats what i want to ask sifu sam also.
can we use TA on FA?
for example, if RCECAP always drop to around RM0.54 and rise again over RM0.6x.
can i aim to buy it when it drop to RM0.54 again?
is it something like what sifu sam said as below：
Wait till T+4 , if she still can hold @ 0.70 after T+4 with heavy volume traded, she stand a good chance 2 rose further.
If, she cant hold @ 0.70 n slide all d way down 2 0.50 with heavy volume traded , this show big sharks r selling their stake 2 d buyers, then u shld avoid n stand aside.
What if she came down from 0.70 to 0.50 with little tiny vol ? this show that d big buggers r still holding at high , then u shld accumulate or buy in @ 0.50.
if any salah please correct me.
thanks ya sifu sam.
Hi Sifu, based on this news, You think MEASAT can bet kah on MONDAY?
waiting for you.
KUALA LUMPUR, July 18 — Malaysian tycoon Ananda Krishnan is set to restructure his premier satellite television operator, Astro All Asia Networks, in a RM9 billion transaction that will rank as the region's largest corporate exercise so far this year.
Under the proposed corporate deal, Astro's two main shareholders — the Ananda-controlled private investment company Usaha Tegas and Malaysia's state-owned Khazanah Holdings — will acquire the satellite television company's fledgling and still unprofitable international business interests.
2 gabriel.. I love my accord very much, i dun think i will sell it or trade in..sorry yah ^_-
2 Yewchang, play ard d range is not TA, just like what I did 2 citi, trade citi ard d range btwn 2.50+ to 3.50 ^_- , take a look at kaichiew call on uemland , he said a black candlestick on friday , showing down trend..but..uemland closed with 5 cts gain !??? what is this man ?
2 ck5354, no harm trying, cos d boss behind is arnanda , yr risk is minimum, play small will do ^_-
Wooow... i just came across lots of broking hse calling buy on KLSE with TP 1,200 this morning...ha ha changed so fast arh ? they just called 2 sell on d 8 of July with TP 980 !... see ? this is ma how pau ! like that cinapek oso boleh lah !
Hi Sam,
Appreciate your comments on HSBC share. It looks good for long term investments, solid banking record with good positioning globally especially in Hong Kong and now making in road (in a big way) in the largest economy, China. Thank you.
Hi sifu Sam,
I thought your previous blog mentioned that you would trade in your accord for a camry in Sept '09
Hehe, change your mind liao ar???
What r really the cost u paid to these so-called experts in obtaining their precious opinions and compared the losses u r going to be made if these experts opinion r wrong? In these scenario who r enjoying the most benefits and also who r really risking the maximum losses ?????????
看看這些照片，可能不是自殺。
http://tokkokoni.blogspot.com/2009/07/mysterious-death-at-macc.html
Teoh Bong Hock 一路走好
2 Grabiel... yes i hv change my mind liaoo.. i will trade in my pa's old car n give him my accord ^_-
Seems like mkt is now focusing on bluechips, 2nd liner hardly move at all..ha ha..no worry be patient .. i dun think 2nd liners will not be moved 4ever ^V^
Dear Uncle Sam,
Can u give some comment on DAIBOCI? Thank you!
2 chee meng, latest qe of daibochi shown tremendous improvement of 6.63cts as compare 2 qtq qtrs of 2.23, but its revenue is still d same figures, it could be due 2 one off gain, but based on last year eps of 10.75cts, its PE is still < 10, i can c its ren her is still..well not a bad choice.
If u hv solid insider news, no harm trying ^_-
index is going crazy again~ so sifu how u think the feng shui graph ? it show this month will have correction rite?
Dear Uncle Sam,
Thank you so much!
Bro. Please comment on Zhulian. Worth to buy at current level ? Will it be another HaiO ?
sam,
how u look at the market right now ? it keep on goin.. is it really bullish ? or another correction will come soon ?
2 lim , short term no ideal...but I am very confident those shares in my list will bring me good returns by latest 1st qtr of 2010. can u buy tgoffwa @ my call figure of 0.62 ? take it ezi..take it ezi.
2 combull..about zhulian...i need 2 look into it earning first... will let u know 2molo ^_^
BTW, can d kid buy tgoffwa , Rcecap @ my call figure of 0.62 n 0.56 ? take it ezi..take it ezi. ha ha...sour make no cure ^_-
WOww dow is now 8,800+ liaooo...I wonder is there any sin ka TA bugger calling uptrend out there ?anyone ? dah break 8770 liaoo...belum muktamad lagi arh ? aiseh... lu punya TA chart tak fungsi ka ? mana boleh macam tu !?
See ? All keeping so quiet liaooo ! it is never too late 2 know TA = Tiada akal ^_-
Hi Sam,
got this from cnbc.com....
http://www.cnbc.com/id/32006947
"The current mid-summer rally will last until the end of August, but trading volumes will be light with many investors on holiday, Robin Griffiths, technical strategist at Cazenove Capital told CNBC Monday.
"It's more important to have your capital ready to buy a dip in October," Griffiths said. "By far the best bet is we'll be lower in October than we are now." Griffiths said he sees the market falling toward the March lows in October."
Lets' see whether what Griffiths (who is technical strategists) said is correct.
Regards.
Eric
Hi Sam,
Wondering why tgoff-wa is almost 0 volume lately?
ONG! ONG! ONG!
ALAM
BHIC
COASTAL
DELEUM
DIALOG
KENCANA
KNM
MUHIBAH
PANTECH
PENERGY
PERISAI
PETRA
SAPCRES
SCOMI
SCOMIEN
SCOMIMR
TGOFFS
WASEONG
sifu sam,
i think this TA bugger kaichiew has created his own blog..i saw it when click his profile
kaichiew.blogspot.com
he blogs about uemland chart, ask plp not to buy..but uemland share now keep rising, wakakaka
Dear Uncle Sam,
Thanks for dropping your blog url in my blog.
May I know what is FA stands for?
Bursa recently announced better 2nd qtr result & its CEO said 2nd half year will be better. I consider to buy some now for mild term investment. May I know what is your advice on Bursa counter?
Dear Uncle Sam,
I'm new here. Bursa recently announced better profit and expect better performance for 2nd half year. I'm considering to buy some Bursa shares now for mild term investment. Can you give a bit a advice on this Bursa counter? Btw, what FA stands for?
Thanks
sifu sam,
ASIAEP good to goreng2? it latest annouc showing nice offer. but it FA very bad wor.
beside current adjustment is prepare for next satumalaysia fund to be lauch.
2day saw many uncle n aunty rush go buy ASM. They are RICH.
Cheers ^_^
sam,
wah..ur warrant already 1.060 already lor.. if i know earlier bout ur blog i surely follow.. u have been very nice sharing ur thoughts..surely those TA bugger sour moo la.. haha...
but i do buy ur recomendation on KFIMA..haiz..but i buy it at high price.. 0.68 look at current way i dont know should still go in or not at 0.620 to leverage it a bit..
Yes..bursa is under d index link stock ,not a bad FA stock but still I prefer others like ytlpower,PBB n Parkson ^_-
Tgoff-wa 1.06 liaoo meh ? aiyoo yoo.. I am bz today, got no time 2 monitor it..anyway... she is still way too low than my TP...atke it ezi take it ezi ha ha
FA = Fundamental ..or some sour crabs called it funnymental ha ha
Woww..DOW rose another 100 points to 8,900 liaoo... really pity those who short @8,242 ...650 points !!! can someone calculate how much all these TA buggers lose arh ? same goes to KLCI , from 960 to 1,146 , 75 points cost tkem how much ?
So how now ? KLCI breaks 1,148 liaoo..confirmed bull ? ot still need 2 wait somemore ? ha ha...TA opps TA , u r really cute ^_-
gg
Post a Comment